Daily Upset Alert: NBA Underdog Picks
Denver Nuggets vs. Charlotte Hornets
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center in Charlotte
Charlotte Offense
Charlotte’s shot profile is a dream of analytics experts.
Analytics experts assert that the most worthwhile shots are layup and three-point attempts based on calculations of risk versus reward.
The Hornets attempt the eighth most field goals within five feet of the basket.
In the half court, LaMelo Ball, Malik Monk, and Terry Rozier love driving inside.
Rozier is also a dangerous three-point shooter. His efficiency from behind the arc must seem incredible when you consider who he was in the earliest stages of his NBA career.
Now, Rozier helps the Hornets rank eighth in three-pointers made per game.
Power forward P.J. Washington is also worth noting because he converts 41.2 percent of his three-pointers. His ability to shoot helps space the floor for Charlotte’s half-court offense.
A significant portion of the Hornet scoring endeavor comes from its transition attack.
Charlotte forces a lot of turnovers especially when Ball and Monk are on the court together.
Ball, with his strong vision, is great at rapidly making the right passes as he, Monk, and others race down the floor after collecting a steal.
Overall, the Hornets score the fourth-most points in transition per game.
Hornet Offense vs. Nugget Defense
Denver’s defense is vulnerable in the three primary respects in which the Hornet offense is dangerous.
Throughout the season, the Nuggets have lacked able rim protection. They allow the highest opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Moreover, Denver allows open three-pointers at one of the highest rates and clearly ranks in the bottom half in running opponents off the three-point line.
Plus, the Nuggets allow the highest PPP (points per possession) in transition.
Their plethora of defensive struggles largely stems from personnel issues.
These issues were magnified by the losses of important wing defenders during the offseason.
Most recently, P.J. Dozier's groin injury is critical. Based on his defensive rating, Dozier was a top-level defender for the Nuggets.
One thing which Dozier contributed was help defense. He showed strong awareness and anticipation, which allowed him to force turnovers, disrupt passing lanes, and so forth.
Denver Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
Charlotte’s defense is worth relying on especially at home.
At home, the Hornets allow 108.1 points per game. If this were a season-long statistic reflecting both home and away games, then Charlotte’s scoring defense would rank sixth.
There is one respect, though, in which the Hornet defense is vulnerable.
Offenses that can threaten Charlotte do so by taking advantage of the higher rate of open and wide open three-point attempts that the Hornets concede.
I am not afraid of the Nuggets tonight because three-point shooting does not constitute a significant element in their offense. Denver ranks in the bottom-half in three-pointers attempted.
In view of three-point shooting, the Nuggets miss Jamal Murray, who was converting 40.8 percent of his three-pointers before his season-ending knee injury.
Best Bet: Hornets ATS
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Detroit Pistons
Tuesday, May 11 at 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit
Key Trend
Minnesota’s 32-point win in its last game against Orlando creates a strong betting situation that favors the underdog in this game.
This season, the Timberwolves are 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in the game following a double-digit win.
In those five games, they lost by 22 at Golden State, by four versus Portland, by four at Indiana, by three at Sacramento, and by four versus New Orleans.
Minnesota’s Defensive Struggles
Before getting to face Orlando and its second-to-last-place scoring offense, the Timberwolves had allowed over 120 points in three straight games — to Miami, to Memphis, and to New Orleans.
One commonality in those three defensive disasters was the success of opposing point guards.
For Miami, both Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro accrued 29 points. Memphis’ Ja Morant amassed 37 points and Lonzo Ball contributed 33 points for the Pelicans.
Tonight’s starting point guard for Detroit will be Killian Hayes, who has been thrust into the starting role after initial starter Cory Joseph suffered an ankle injury.
Hayes is coming off a breakout performance in which he scored 21 points. Hayes has grown demonstrably more comfortable with his shot both inside and outside the arc. He’s also developed chemistry in an additional off-ball role when fellow guard and driving threat Saben Lee is on the court.
Minnesota Offense vs. Detroit Defense
Unlike Minnesota, Detroit hasn’t given up 120 or more points in a game since April 21 when superstar Luka Doncic scored 30 points and Dallas accumulated 16 three-point conversions.
The Timberwolves lack Dallas’ superstardom and the latter’s three-point shooting prowess. They are rather confined to scoring inside where they attempt the fifth-highest rate of field goals within five feet of the basket, but at the seventh-lowest efficiency rate.
This one-dimensionality lowers Minnesota’s offensive ceiling relative to what Detroit can offer with guys like Hayes.
Best Bet: Pistons ATS
Denver Nuggets vs. Charlotte Hornets
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center in Charlotte
Charlotte Offense
Charlotte’s shot profile is a dream of analytics experts.
Analytics experts assert that the most worthwhile shots are layup and three-point attempts based on calculations of risk versus reward.
The Hornets attempt the eighth most field goals within five feet of the basket.
In the half court, LaMelo Ball, Malik Monk, and Terry Rozier love driving inside.
Rozier is also a dangerous three-point shooter. His efficiency from behind the arc must seem incredible when you consider who he was in the earliest stages of his NBA career.
Now, Rozier helps the Hornets rank eighth in three-pointers made per game.
Power forward P.J. Washington is also worth noting because he converts 41.2 percent of his three-pointers. His ability to shoot helps space the floor for Charlotte’s half-court offense.
A significant portion of the Hornet scoring endeavor comes from its transition attack.
Charlotte forces a lot of turnovers especially when Ball and Monk are on the court together.
Ball, with his strong vision, is great at rapidly making the right passes as he, Monk, and others race down the floor after collecting a steal.
Overall, the Hornets score the fourth-most points in transition per game.
Hornet Offense vs. Nugget Defense
Denver’s defense is vulnerable in the three primary respects in which the Hornet offense is dangerous.
Throughout the season, the Nuggets have lacked able rim protection. They allow the highest opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Moreover, Denver allows open three-pointers at one of the highest rates and clearly ranks in the bottom half in running opponents off the three-point line.
Plus, the Nuggets allow the highest PPP (points per possession) in transition.
Their plethora of defensive struggles largely stems from personnel issues.
These issues were magnified by the losses of important wing defenders during the offseason.
Most recently, P.J. Dozier's groin injury is critical. Based on his defensive rating, Dozier was a top-level defender for the Nuggets.
One thing which Dozier contributed was help defense. He showed strong awareness and anticipation, which allowed him to force turnovers, disrupt passing lanes, and so forth.
Denver Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
Charlotte’s defense is worth relying on especially at home.
At home, the Hornets allow 108.1 points per game. If this were a season-long statistic reflecting both home and away games, then Charlotte’s scoring defense would rank sixth.
There is one respect, though, in which the Hornet defense is vulnerable.
Offenses that can threaten Charlotte do so by taking advantage of the higher rate of open and wide open three-point attempts that the Hornets concede.
I am not afraid of the Nuggets tonight because three-point shooting does not constitute a significant element in their offense. Denver ranks in the bottom-half in three-pointers attempted.
In view of three-point shooting, the Nuggets miss Jamal Murray, who was converting 40.8 percent of his three-pointers before his season-ending knee injury.
Best Bet: Hornets ATS
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Detroit Pistons
Tuesday, May 11 at 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit
Key Trend
Minnesota’s 32-point win in its last game against Orlando creates a strong betting situation that favors the underdog in this game.
This season, the Timberwolves are 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in the game following a double-digit win.
In those five games, they lost by 22 at Golden State, by four versus Portland, by four at Indiana, by three at Sacramento, and by four versus New Orleans.
Minnesota’s Defensive Struggles
Before getting to face Orlando and its second-to-last-place scoring offense, the Timberwolves had allowed over 120 points in three straight games — to Miami, to Memphis, and to New Orleans.
One commonality in those three defensive disasters was the success of opposing point guards.
For Miami, both Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro accrued 29 points. Memphis’ Ja Morant amassed 37 points and Lonzo Ball contributed 33 points for the Pelicans.
Tonight’s starting point guard for Detroit will be Killian Hayes, who has been thrust into the starting role after initial starter Cory Joseph suffered an ankle injury.
Hayes is coming off a breakout performance in which he scored 21 points. Hayes has grown demonstrably more comfortable with his shot both inside and outside the arc. He’s also developed chemistry in an additional off-ball role when fellow guard and driving threat Saben Lee is on the court.
Minnesota Offense vs. Detroit Defense
Unlike Minnesota, Detroit hasn’t given up 120 or more points in a game since April 21 when superstar Luka Doncic scored 30 points and Dallas accumulated 16 three-point conversions.
The Timberwolves lack Dallas’ superstardom and the latter’s three-point shooting prowess. They are rather confined to scoring inside where they attempt the fifth-highest rate of field goals within five feet of the basket, but at the seventh-lowest efficiency rate.
This one-dimensionality lowers Minnesota’s offensive ceiling relative to what Detroit can offer with guys like Hayes.
Best Bet: Pistons ATS
