Tuesday Totals Discussion

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Here we go. "Openers" on the weekday numbers are just from when I first saw them - not necessarily the actual openers.

Open - Current

Ball St. - Miami OH: 54.5 - 54 (lean heavily to Miami OH and the under here)

Temple - Kent St.: 44.5 - 45
Central Mich. - N. Illinois: 48.5 - 48

Buffalo - Akron: 58 - 58.5
Va. Tech - Miami FL: 43.5 - 43.5
Wyoming - UNLV: ? - 46

Cincinnati - Louisville: 48 - 48

Projections:

Indiana - Penn St.: 55
Purdue - Iowa: 49 (Painter? Siller?)
Northwestern - Michigan: 48.5 (Which Michigan D shows up?)
Minnesota - Wisconsin: 47.5 (Assuming Decker is out - 48.5 is the projection with Decker in)
Wake Forest - NC St.: 44
Duke - Clemson: 45.5
North Carolina - Maryland: 46
Notre Dame - Navy: 50
Connecticut - Syracuse: 48
Mississippi St. - Alabama: 41
Vanderbilt - Kentucky: 40.5
Texas A&M - Baylor: 64
New Mexico - Colorado St.: 51
Toledo - W. Michigan: 56.5
Utah St. - Louisiana Tech: 48.5
East Carolina - Southern Miss.: 50
UAB - Tulane: 53.5
Texas - Kansas: 66.5
Missouri - Iowa St.: 65.5
California - Oregon St.: 55
Arizona - Oregon: 61
UCLA - Washington: 51
Georgia - Auburn: 44.5
BYU - Air Force: 49.5
South Carolina - Florida: 49
San Jose St. - Nevada: 54 (No clue what to do here - basically just averaged the teams together)
Central Florida - Marshall: 44
Boise St. - Idaho: 57
Tulsa - Houston: 79.5
New Mexico St. - Fresno St.: 62.5
USC - Stanford: 47
Nebraska - Kansas St.: 66
Oklahoma St. - Colorado: 57.5
Rutgers - South Florida: 47
Boston College - Florida St.: 49
Ohio St. - Illinois: 47
Utah - San Diego St.: 52.5
SMU - UTEP: 69.5
Washington St. - Arizona St.: 56

Middle Tenn. St. - W. Kentucky: 42
UL Lafayette - Fla. Atlantic: 56.5
UL Monroe - Mississippi: 55.5?

Troy - LSU: 51.5?


Let's find the winners. :cheers:
 
agree with miami and under...

cmu/n. ill over looks kind of tempting

that buff/akron under looks amazing

buckeyes under looks good to me at that number

missippi state/bama under is tempting as well...

my .02, thoughts dmoney?
 
Dmoney, then Matador:

Indiana - Penn St.: 55/60
Purdue - Iowa: 49/43
Northwestern - Michigan: 48.5/48
Minnesota - Wisconsin: 47.5/52
Wake Forest - NC St.: 44/48.5
Duke - Clemson: 45.5/52
North Carolina - Maryland: 46/53
Notre Dame - Navy: 50/56.5
Connecticut - Syracuse: 48/45
Mississippi St. - Alabama: 41/40
Vanderbilt - Kentucky: 40.5/39
Texas A&M - Baylor: 64/65
New Mexico - Colorado St.: 51/46
Toledo - W. Michigan: 56.5/55
Utah St. - Louisiana Tech: 48.5/42.5
East Carolina - Southern Miss.: 50/52
UAB - Tulane: 53.5/52
Texas - Kansas: 66.5/67
Missouri - Iowa St.: 65.5/67
California - Oregon St.: 55/56
Arizona - Oregon: 61/63
UCLA - Washington: 51/53
Georgia - Auburn: 44.5/50
BYU - Air Force: 49.5/55
South Carolina - Florida: 49/52
San Jose St. - Nevada: 54/55
Central Florida - Marshall: 44/39
Boise St. - Idaho: 57/58
Tulsa - Houston: 79.5/77
New Mexico St. - Fresno St.: 62.5/68
USC - Stanford: 47/47
Nebraska - Kansas St.: 66/72.5
Oklahoma St. - Colorado: 57.5/54
Rutgers - South Florida: 47/46.5
Boston College - Florida St.: 49/52
Ohio St. - Illinois: 47/48
Utah - San Diego St.: 52.5/50
SMU - UTEP: 69.5/69
Washington St. - Arizona St.: 56/62

Middle Tenn. St. - W. Kentucky: 42/43
UL Lafayette - Fla. Atlantic: 56.5/61
UL Monroe - Mississippi: 55.5/52

Troy - LSU: 51.5/49
 
broadwayjoe said:
agree with miami and under...

cmu/n. ill over looks kind of tempting

that buff/akron under looks amazing

buckeyes under looks good to me at that number

missippi state/bama under is tempting as well...

my .02, thoughts dmoney?
Click to expand...

- This Ball St./Miami line movement reminds me of the Ball St./Kent St. movement earlier in the year when it landed right on the closing number on a missed XP by Kent St.

- No opinion on CMU/NIU total - tough time projecting how much I expect NIU to score.

- Buff/Akron is definitely a bit inflated due to each team's last couple games. No play for me at this point, but keeping an eye on it.

- I've shaded Ohio St. totals a couple points higher than you in basically every game this season. You have been right more often than not. That being said, still trusting the numbers and if I made OSU/NW 46 last week, I can't make this game lower than that.

- I agree in theory on Bama/Miss St., but I don't bet unders on such low numbers very often. I find that some of these games can go over by accident (not that other games aren't susceptible to this, but I feel that these games are more apt to do this). It is also one of the weaknesses of my numbers thinking, as I look to bet numbers that are 4-6 points off of my line. However, once you get down to the low 40s/high 30s, the numbers don't really have a chance to be that far off since you never really see a total lined under 36 or 37.
 
Thanks again for your numbers Matador - some moderate differences this week, but not as many as the previous couple of weeks.

Fundamentally, I think some of our discrepancies come from our differing opinions on some teams. I know we differ on Wisconsin often, and our ACC numbers are almost always different.
 
Blue_Chip said:
Hard to determine that Troy-LSU total because we do not know how much play time Jordan Jefferson will receive.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Combine that with having a strange non-conference game this late in the season, and you have a tough game to line (not to mention it is tough to predict how LSU willl come out after last week).
 
I expect the Wisky total to be in the low 50's D. I will be playing the over if it comes out any lower. I expect a 34-24 type game.
 
signalcaller said:
I expect the Wisky total to be in the low 50's D. I will be playing the over if it comes out any lower. I expect a 34-24 type game.
Click to expand...

I'm just not as down on Wisconsin's defense as some are, and the Wisconsin offense hasn't been great when facing defenses with a pulse.

Minnesota hasn't gone over 47 since late September against Ohio St., and Minnesota basically scored two garbage TDs in that game. They have played to low scores against some awful defenses as well: 16-7 vs. Indiana, 27-20 @Illinois, 17-6 @Purdue, 24-17 vs. NW.

I also think we could see 75-80 runs here if Decker is out.
 
Dmoney --

My numbers do not account for weather this week, other than in general they're slightly lower than they would have been a month ago, because the fact that it will be generally colder is something you can count on. Injuries are not taken into account, except long standing injuries and definite will not play situations. So consider that number with Decker. I'm generally higher on Wisconsin games because I think their defense is flat out lousy, in contrast with the general consensus. That they haven't been further exposed I think has to do with the soft schedule. Another factor is the fast turf they play on, which makes a big difference over grass fields in any November Big 10 game.

ACC I think on Maryland more than any other team. Maybe BC as well in certain spots. I just think Maryland's defense is just as lousy as Wisconsin, even worse. High number on Clemson this week I guess is just because my perception is that Clemson is finally getting the offense in gear -- I could be a little high. NCState is a straight over team whenever Wilson plays. Worst defense in the league. My higher number in that game has little to do with the WFU side.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Agreed. Combine that with having a strange non-conference game this late in the season, and you have a tough game to line (not to mention it is tough to predict how LSU willl come out after last week).
Click to expand...

... and looking ahead to Ole Miss next week. That is a big rivalry
 
Matador said:
Dmoney --

My numbers do not account for weather this week, other than in general they're slightly lower than they would have been a month ago, because the fact that it will be generally colder is something you can count on. Injuries are not taken into account, except long standing injuries and definite will not play situations. So consider that number with Decker. I'm generally higher on Wisconsin games because I think their defense is flat out lousy, in contrast with the general consensus. That they haven't been further exposed I think has to do with the soft schedule. Another factor is the fast turf they play on, which makes a big difference over grass fields in any November Big 10 game.

ACC I think on Maryland more than any other team. Maybe BC as well in certain spots. I just think Maryland's defense is just as lousy as Wisconsin, even worse. High number on Clemson this week I guess is just because my perception is that Clemson is finally getting the offense in gear -- I could be a little high. NCState is a straight over team whenever Wilson plays. Worst defense in the league. My higher number in that game has little to do with the WFU side.
Click to expand...

Yep - colder weather definitely has to be taken into account. Appreciate the outlook on the teams we differ on.

I personally never account for weather since we are still four days away from the games. I've tried to predict weather in the past and failed miserably. The totals will adjust themselves later in the week if bad weather looks likely for a particular game.
 
thanks for the response dmoney. i'm a little surprised that n ill is favored by the full 3 here...figured it would open at pk or n ill -1.5. i think it has a lot to do with matchups. central michigan is hidious at stopping the run. i would think n ill gets to 28 here, and i doubt they hold cmu under 24. game has a good chance of both teams getting in the 30s imo
 
Not sure if I'm with you on NIU getting into the 30s. NIU giving a full 3 surprised me too - they have gotten an awful lot of respect from the linesmakers this year. Will have to look at that game again tomorrow.

Starting the totals lookout now...
 
Anybody notice all these numbers coming out are the same Dmoney had. Linesmakers must of been checking out his thread hence the delay.
 
Just one for me with Kansas St.

Heavy lean to the Purdue over as well. We'll see if any lines move into bettable territory.
 
D....

Do you happen to have the openers available as usual?

I don't want to seem like a mooch, but I would like to focus on totals this week a little more.

Thanks as always.
 
hoopsstar22 said:
D....

Do you happen to have the openers available as usual?

I don't want to seem like a mooch, but I would like to focus on totals this week a little more.

Thanks as always.
Click to expand...

Sure. This is what I have for open and current for Saturday. Will also add late moves Sat. morning when it rolls around.

Open - Current (Thursday, 11:10 AM EST)

Indiana - Penn St.: 57.5 - 57
Purdue - Iowa: 44 - 44.5
Northwestern - Michigan: 46.5 - 45.5
Minnesota - Wisconsin: 46 - 46.5
Wake Forest - NC St.: 41 - 42.5
Duke - Clemson: 43 - 45.5
North Carolina - Maryland: 44 - 45.5
Notre Dame - Navy: 48.5 - 52
Connecticut - Syracuse: 48.5 - 48
Mississippi St. - Alabama: 41 - 40.5
Vanderbilt - Kentucky: 37.5 - 39.5 (Think this went as high as 40.5)
Texas A&M - Baylor: 64 - 61.5
New Mexico - Colorado St.: 53.5 - 52
Toledo - W. Michigan: 55 - 56
Utah St. - Louisiana Tech: 49 - 47
East Carolina - Southern Miss.: 50 - 48.5
UAB - Tulane: 57 - 54
Texas - Kansas: 71.5 - 68
Missouri - Iowa St.: 67.5 - 64.5
California - Oregon St.: 54.5 - 51.5
Arizona - Oregon: 64 - 60
UCLA - Washington: 50 - 47.5
Georgia - Auburn: 46 - 47.5
BYU - Air Force: 51 - 51
South Carolina - Florida: 49 - 50
San Jose St. - Nevada: 56.5 - 52
Central Florida - Marshall: 41.5 - 40.5
Boise St. - Idaho: 58 - 59.5
Tulsa - Houston: 78.5 - 79.5 (Briefly hit 80)
New Mexico St. - Fresno St.: 66 - 65.5
USC - Stanford: 48 - 48.5
Nebraska - Kansas St.: 74 - 70.5
Oklahoma St. - Colorado: 60 - 57.5
Rutgers - South Florida: 47 - 49.5
Boston College - Florida St.: 50 - 46.5
Ohio St. - Illinois: 47 - 47.5
Utah - San Diego St.: 54.5 - 53
SMU - UTEP: 75.5 - 69.5
Washington St. - Arizona St.: 61 - 58

Middle Tenn. St. - W. Kentucky: 45 - 45.5
UL Lafayette - Fla. Atlantic: 60.5 - 61.5
UL Monroe - Mississippi: 53 - 54

Troy - LSU: 55 - 54.5 (Very briefly shot to 56 before going back down)


Thursday and Friday is usually moving day for some of these, so I'll add the movements come. Sat. morning.
 
Awesome man.

I don't have enough time/energy to dig deep into the sides this week, but I would like to get busy with totals for once.
 
Open - (Thursday, 11:10 AM EST) - Current (Saturday, 10:20 AM EST)

Indiana - Penn St.: 57.5 - 57 - 56
Purdue - Iowa: 44 - 44.5 - 43.5
Northwestern - Michigan: 46.5 - 45.5 - 46.5
Minnesota - Wisconsin: 46 - 46.5 - 46
Wake Forest - NC St.: 41 - 42.5 - 42
Duke - Clemson: 43 - 45.5 - 46
North Carolina - Maryland: 44 - 45.5 - 44.5
Notre Dame - Navy: 48.5 - 52 - 51.5
Connecticut - Syracuse: 48.5 - 48 - 46.5
Mississippi St. - Alabama: 41 - 40.5 - 41
Vanderbilt - Kentucky: 37.5 - 39.5 - 37(Think this went as high as 40.5)
Texas A&M - Baylor: 64 - 61.5 - 59
New Mexico - Colorado St.: 53.5 - 52 - 52.5
Toledo - W. Michigan: 55 - 56 - 54.5
Utah St. - Louisiana Tech: 49 - 47 - 48.5
East Carolina - Southern Miss.: 50 - 48.5 - 49
UAB - Tulane: 57 - 54 - 54.5
Texas - Kansas: 71.5 - 68 - 65.5
Missouri - Iowa St.: 67.5 - 64.5 - 65.5
California - Oregon St.: 54.5 - 51.5 - 49.5
Arizona - Oregon: 64 - 60 - 59
UCLA - Washington: 50 - 47.5 - 45
Georgia - Auburn: 46 - 47.5 - 47.5
BYU - Air Force: 51 - 51 - 51
South Carolina - Florida: 49 - 50 - 48
San Jose St. - Nevada: 56.5 - 52 - 51
Central Florida - Marshall: 41.5 - 40.5 - 38.5
Boise St. - Idaho: 58 - 59.5 - 58
Tulsa - Houston: 78.5 - 79.5 - 79.5 (Briefly hit 80)
New Mexico St. - Fresno St.: 66 - 65.5 - 65.5
USC - Stanford: 48 - 48.5 - 48
Nebraska - Kansas St.: 74 - 70.5 - 68.5
Oklahoma St. - Colorado: 60 - 57.5 - 55.5
Rutgers - South Florida: 47 - 49.5 - 49.5
Boston College - Florida St.: 50 - 46.5 - 44.5
Ohio St. - Illinois: 47 - 47.5 - 44.5
Utah - San Diego St.: 54.5 - 53 - 53
SMU - UTEP: 75.5 - 69.5 - 67.5
Washington St. - Arizona St.: 61 - 58 - 56.5

Middle Tenn. St. - W. Kentucky: 45 - 45.5 - 45.5
UL Lafayette - Fla. Atlantic: 60.5 - 61.5 - 61.5
UL Monroe - Mississippi: 53 - 54 - 55.5

Troy - LSU: 55 - 54.5 - 54 (Very briefly shot to 56 before going back down)
 
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