Tuesday Totals Discussion

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Getting this up early in hopes of generating more discussion.

Open - Current (projection)


Ohio - Temple: 43-41 (40.5)

Auburn - West Virginia: 38-38 (39)
New Mexico - Air Force: 47-45 (46)

Boise St. - San Jose St.: 43.5-42.5 (45.5)

Louisiana Tech - Army: 41.5-43 (42)
NC State - Maryland: 44.5-45.5 (43.5)
Wake Forest - Miami FL: 44-42 (40)
Northwestern - Indiana: 48-51 (57)
Minnesota - Purdue: 49.5-51 (53)
Boston College - North Carolina: 44-43 (40.5)
Cincinnati - Connecticut: 45.5-44.5 (46)
Illinois - Wisconsin: 57-56.5 (48.5)
Rutgers - Pittsburgh: 42.5-43 (43)
Texas A&M - Iowa St: 56-56 (55.5)
Kentucky - Florida: 48-48 (44)
Mississippi - Arkansas: 53.5-53.5 (50)
Eastern Michigan - Ball St.: 58-58 (58)
UNLV - BYU: 56-55.5 (59.5)
Duke - Vanderbilt: 41.5-40.5 (44)
Rice - Tulane: 68.5-69 (62.5)
Fresno St. - Utah St.: 61.5-60 (58.5)
SMU - Navy: 61-64.5 (72.5)
Alabama - Tennessee: 41-41 (41.5)
Oregon - Arizona St.: 53.5-53.5 (51.5)
UCLA - California: 52.5-51 (55.5)
Kent St. - Miami OH: 47-47.5 (45.5)
Virginia - Georgia Tech: 37-38 (39)
Oklahoma St. - Texas: 71.5-70.5 (64)
Georgia - LSU: 49-48.5 (47)
Oklahoma - Kansas St.: 70-71 (67)
Michigan St. - Michigan: 47-45 (46.5)
Virginia Tech - Florida St.: 45.5-44 (40)
Bowling Green - Northern Illinois: 46-47 (47)
New Mexico St. - Idaho: 66-66.5 (66)
Wyoming - TCU: 43.5-43 (45)
Central Mich. - Toledo: 55.5-57 (53.5)
South Florida - Louisville: 55.5-55.5 (54)
Baylor - Nebraska: 60-59.5 (65)
Texas Tech - Kansas: 65.5-67 (68.5)
Colorado - Missouri: 63.5-62.5 (62)
Penn St. - Ohio St.: 45.5-46 (45)
So. Mississippi - Memphis: OFF-51 (58 - didn't account for Hall/Hudgens injuries)
Notre Dame - Washington: 53-53 (47.5)
Colorado St. - San Diego St.: 52.5-52.5 (48.5)
USC - Arizona: 55.5-55 (49.5)
Nevada - Hawaii: 62.5-62 (50)
Middle Tenn. St. - Mississippi St.: 38.5-40 (37)
Fla. Atlantic - UL Monroe: 55-53 (50.5)
Troy - North Texas: 63-63 (67.5)
Central Florida - Tulsa: 72.5-71.5 (66)


Tell me where the mistakes are. :cheers:
 
Last edited:
seems too high on Neb/Baylor. Baylor/Okie St. only generated 40 pts. Neb/Iowa St. only 42 pts.
 
Potentially good spots (basically meaning that I think the lines might come out higher or lower than the projection):

La. Tech/Army Under
Minnesota/Purdue Over
Bowling Green/NIU Over
NMSU/Idaho Under
CMU/Toledo Over
Central Florida/Tulsa Under (sets up quite nicely IMO)
 
cubsker said:
Shouldn't Nev/Hawaii be higher?
Click to expand...

Technically, yes.

In fact, Nevada has only gone under 63 once this year. However, look who they have played:

Grambling St.
Texas Tech
Missouri
UNLV
Idaho
New Mexico St.
Utah St.

All of these games are favorable to very high scoring games, as they all either have amazing offenses or horrendous defenses (or, in some cases, both).

Hawaii, on the other hand, has been in mostly low scoring games since conference play has started. The only exception being the 32-29 win over Fresno where they were gifted basically all of their points (kick return + 6 turnovers). That is the only game where they have scored more than 24 points against a I-A team.


So, in hindsight you are definitely right here and this should be 55 or so. I'll be on the under at 60 or higher though.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Potentially good spots (basically meaning that I think the lines might come out higher or lower than the projection):

La. Tech/Army Under
Minnesota/Purdue Over
Bowling Green/NIU Over
NMSU/Idaho Under
CMU/Toledo Over
Central Florida/Tulsa Under (sets up quite nicely IMO)
Click to expand...

If its at your number I love that over. If they put up a 60 or higher I have to think about the under.
 
cubsker said:
seems too high on Neb/Baylor. Baylor/Okie St. only generated 40 pts. Neb/Iowa St. only 42 pts.
Click to expand...

You know Nebraska better than I do. Where would you put this one?

Despite the scores last week, Nebraska games have scored 57+ on five occasions and 65+ on four (including Va. Tech and WMU). Baylor is probably one of the weaker Ds they will have faced to this point.

I'm seeing much of the same when I look at Baylor as well.

I could see low 60s, but I don't think I go under 60 here.
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
Texas A&M - Iowa St: 55.5


I think one is to high
Click to expand...

Agree to disagree here - I've seen a change in this TAMU team since Jerrod Johnson took the helm. They are passing a lot, and have been in several shootouts lately.

Iowa St. scoring is a concern, but I think the TAMU D is weak enough for them to put some points up here.
 
Iowa St will score against the TAMU D 4 sure. Thier d line, well they dont seem to have one. K st had a field day with TAMU.. Thanks for your effort !!!
 
biggoob said:
Iowa St will score against the TAMU D 4 sure. Thier d line, well they dont seem to have one. K st had a field day with TAMU.. Thanks for your effort !!!
Click to expand...

Thanks big - yep Harrell had like 10 seconds per play back there when he needed it.

Also bumping this as the weekday numbers are out. They are edited into the first post.
 
Dmoney416 said:
You know Nebraska better than I do. Where would you put this one?

Despite the scores last week, Nebraska games have scored 57+ on five occasions and 65+ on four (including Va. Tech and WMU). Baylor is probably one of the weaker Ds they will have faced to this point.

I'm seeing much of the same when I look at Baylor as well.

I could see low 60s, but I don't think I go under 60 here.
Click to expand...

More like 60, I think.
 
cubsker said:
seems too high on Neb/Baylor. Baylor/Okie St. only generated 40 pts. Neb/Iowa St. only 42 pts.
Click to expand...

I think 65 is a good spot for the over. Nebraska played Iowa State imo has a defense. Baylor played okiest, which the nation now knows, they have one of the best defense out there, that was a sleeper.

Nebraska vs Baylor defense....what defense?

Both qb can scramble and throw the ball, and those are the two key facts, both teams struggle to defend.

I see a low 40's to high 30's game. 42-35
 
The key in this Baylor/Nebraska game is the Cornhuskers developing defense. Is the Iowa St. game a sign of better defense to come? Or is it just blip on the radar due to a weak opponent?

It may well be the former, but I'll have to see a week or two more of it before I adjust too much.
 
Thats true as well cubs - I do think Lucky and co. will be grabbing bigger chunks of yardage this week. Intrigued to see where this comes out.

Bump - starting the lookout.
 
Usually before that - 4:45 EST (so 3:45 CST) is the most common time.

I just starting casually looking (like every 5 min or so) starting at 3CST because they have released before 3:30 CST on one or two occasions this season. So 3:30 your time is when I would really start looking.
 
I have:

SMU/Navy Over 61 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Northwestern/Indiana Over 48 (2.2u to win 2)
Nevada/Hawaii Under 62.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Illinois/Wisconsin Under 57 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Minnesota/Purdue Over 49.5 (1.1u to win 1)
 
Heavy leans on:

Rice/Tulane under 68.5
Texas/OK St. under 71.5
Va. Tech/FSU under 45.5
ND/Washington under 53
UCF/Tulsa under 72.5<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
Dmoney416 said:
Leaning hard on:

Rice/Tulane under 68.65
Click to expand...

Without looking at anything i like this one as well.

You get a total that is a bit inflated because rice has been an over machine, but in this particular matchup i side with you because tulane should look to set the tempo here at home, by running the football and keeping clement and the rice passing attack at bay.

Best way for them to win this game is slow down the tempo and manage the game, and they know that. Plus theyve had a run-balanced attack all season so its nothing new to them.
:shake:
 
CapTwo said:
Without looking at anything i like this one as well.

You get a total that is a bit inflated because rice has been an over machine, but in this particular matchup i side with you because tulane should look to set the tempo here at home, by running the football and keeping clement and the rice passing attack at bay.

Best way for them to win this game is slow down the tempo and manage the game, and they know that. Plus theyve had a run-balanced attack all season so its nothing new to them.
:shake:
Click to expand...

Exactly - I have similar thoughts on the Tulsa game as well.
 
Openers (as I saw them) posted at the top.

Left the current numbers for Saturday's games out for now because I want to give them a day or so to settle.

Was off big on a couple this week - left the projections there to see what I was thinking on these bets.
 
dmoney, do you use weather projections on any of these? For example, rain is expected for NW/Indiana.
 
cubsker said:
dmoney, do you use weather projections on any of these? For example, rain is expected for NW/Indiana.
Click to expand...

Not really. Basically the reason is that we are still four days from game-time when these lines come out, and these weather patterns are apt to change, weaken, strengthen, etc. The only way I seriously take weather into account on Tuesday is if we are tracking a Hurricane or a large snowstorm or something else of that nature.

If things continue to look ugly come Friday, I will consider hedging/middling/decreasing my bet. However, I'll always jump on a total on Tuesday that I think is off by a couple points in favor of trying to predict the weather.

So, its something I usually focus on come Thursday and Friday.
 
Dmoney416 said:
I have:

SMU/Navy Over 61 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Northwestern/Indiana Over 48 (2.2u to win 2):shake::shake:
Nevada/Hawaii Under 62.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Illinois/Wisconsin Under 57 (1.65u to win 1.5):shake:
Minnesota/Purdue Over 49.5 (1.1u to win 1):shake:
Click to expand...


'an_horse'
 
Over is 29-3 in RICE last 32 games on turf.
Over is 25-4 in RICE last 29 conference games.
 
over in AirForce dropped to 46.. any ideas against OVER in this one.. im seeing both teams in the 20s in this one atleast ... i do know its gonna be pretty cold tomorrow
 
barmeezee said:
over in AirForce dropped to 46.. any ideas against OVER in this one.. im seeing both teams in the 20s in this one atleast ... i do know its gonna be pretty cold tomorrow
Click to expand...

Down to 45 now. I know JPicks is on the under 47.

Both teams like to run and both are effective at stopping the run.
 
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