Tuesday Totals Discussion

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Here we go. The Thursday totals are out:

Florida St. - NC State: 47.5
BYU - TCU: 46.5

Projections:

Hawaii - Boise St.: 51.5

UConn - Rutgers: 41
Wake Forest - Maryland: 43
Georgia Tech - Clemson: 41.5
Memphis - East Carolina: 54
Miami FL - Duke: 42 (You could make the case for several numbers here IMO)
Va. Tech - Boston College: 40
Syracuse - South Florida: 51
Wisconsin - Iowa: 38
Purdue - Northwestern: 55
Kansas - Oklahoma: 58.5
Miami OH - Bowling Green: 46
Western Mich - Central Mich: 54
Nebraska - Iowa St.: 57.5?
Mississippi St. - Tennessee: 37.5
Mississippi - Alabama: 48.5
Vanderbilt - Georgia: 45?
Akron - Eastern Michigan: 51.5
Colorado St. - Utah: 52.5? (what are you thinking here JPicks? 38-14ish is my projected number)
Texas Tech - Texas A&M: 62.5
So. Miss - Rice: 63.5
USC - Washington St.: 56
Pittsburgh - Navy: 48
Ohio St. - Michigan St.: 44
Missouri - Texas: 67.5?
North Carolina - Virginia: 42
Toledo - N. Illinois: 49
Utah St. - Nevada: 64.5 (Very difficult number to make IMO)
Marshall - UAB: 59
Michigan - Penn St.: 46.5
San Diego St. - New Mexico: 43.5
Oregon St. - Washington: 56? (no clue)
Arkansas - Kentucky: 45.5
California - Arizona: 62 (Interested to hear other opinions here)
Idaho - Louisiana Tech: 55.5
Kansas St. - Colorado: 57
Baylor - Oklahoma St.: 66.5
Army - Buffalo: 47
LSU - South Carolina: 45
UTEP - Tulsa: 71
San Jose St - New Mexico St.: 52? (Where do you put this?)
Houston - SMU: 66.5
Indiana - Illinois: 58.5
Air Force - UNLV: 54
Stanford - UCLA: 45
Florida Atlantic - Western Kentucky: 43
Middle Tenn St. - Louisville: 45.5
North Texas - UL Monroe: 66
Arkansas St. - UL Lafayette: 60
Florida International - Troy: 49 (edited from 50.5)


Another difficult week with a lot of games that pit teams with opposite philosophies against each other. Tell me where I'm wrong. :cheers:
 
Last edited:
LSU - South Carolina: 45
Under there looks real nice. Was looking for more 42-43
 
signalcaller said:
LSU - South Carolina: 45
Under there looks real nice. Was looking for more 42-43
Click to expand...

42.5 was the number that clicked into my head at first. Upon further studying, however, I made it a touch higher.

Some interesting tidbits from ETG's thread as well:

- LSU has scored 21+ points in 26 straight games.

- LSU is giving up an average of 30 points per game in their last 11 BCS games.

- South Carolina offense is 2nd in SEC in 3rd down conversion (46.8%)

That along with a the LSU/Florida shootout from last week leads me to believe that this will be a bit higher than expected.
 
NC State overs seems to be hitting every week. They are getting credit for a defense that is non existent somehow.
 
Good stuff there D. Would have never thought of those LSU stats especially the 30 ppg. Thats alarming.

Another one I wouldnt mind discussing is your Cuse/SF number. I would lean strong under there as well. I cant see the Cuse putting up more than 21 in this game (being very generous). I was looking more at a 47 number here as well. I could very easily see a 34-14 type of game. SFU has not allowed more than 21 in their last 3 games and Cuse has only averaged 10.8 ppg their last 5 road games.
 
50-55 range for the CSU/UTA game so I think you're right there D.

55-60 for AFA/UNLV and I'll probably still be on the over.

41-46 for NM/SDSU. Your #'s are very solid in the MWC this week. :shake:
 
I think Mizzou/Texas is higher. 74 maybe. Hell, OU/TX scored 80. They had the MU/OSU total as high as 80 last week. If it's in the 60s, I'm betting over.
 
signalcaller said:
Good stuff there D. Would have never thought of those LSU stats especially the 30 ppg. Thats alarming.

Another one I wouldnt mind discussing is your Cuse/SF number. I would lean strong under there as well. I cant see the Cuse putting up more than 21 in this game (being very generous). I was looking more at a 47 number here as well. I could very easily see a 34-14 type of game. SFU has not allowed more than 21 in their last 3 games and Cuse has only averaged 10.8 ppg their last 5 road games.
Click to expand...

Well, basically the 51 number predicts a 37-14 USF victory when you factor in the line.

When I make these numbers, thats my starting point. Factor in the Vegas line and then come up with a fictional score that sounds reasonable (like you mentioned with the 34-14). After that, its just tinkering the projection in line with what I feel the number should be. After that, adjust for injuries, how the team's match-up with each other, offensive styles, etc.

So, the 51 number basically projects Syracuse to get 14 based on the spread. I actually would be quite surprised to see Syracuse get 21 here, as I see a 17 max barring a couple of very short fields/defensive scores.

Still, it wouldn't shock me to see USF put up 45 either, and that's why I made it 51 as opposed to 48-49. This Syracuse defense is still pretty poor, despite the effort against WVU. West Va. was not only sleepwalking, but the game was also filled with hilariously bad play-calling by WV.

I don't blame you for leaning under here either, but I'd also be surprised if USF doesn't put up at least 31 or so, which is the reason for the number. I don't see them overlooking this game after the Pitt loss. They may need to win out to win the Big East now.
 
JPicks said:
50-55 range for the CSU/UTA game so I think you're right there D.

55-60 for AFA/UNLV and I'll probably still be on the over.

41-46 for NM/SDSU. Your #'s are very solid in the MWC this week. :shake:
Click to expand...


Thanks J - NM/SDSU was the only game I felt like I had a good handle on. It took me a while to make the numbers for the others.

I settled on 54 on the AF/UNLV game because the clock will tick when AF has the ball. Could definitely see higher though, particularly given that they threw a 51 or so out there on AF/Navy.
 
cubsker said:
I think Mizzou/Texas is higher. 74 maybe. Hell, OU/TX scored 80. They had the MU/OSU total as high as 80 last week. If it's in the 60s, I'm betting over.
Click to expand...

Maybe, but I'll be honest when I say that I'm always a bit hesitant to put too many games in the 70s, just like I'm hesitnat to put any game in the mid-30s even if the numbers warrant it.

When I think of putting teams in the 70s, I more apt to do it when the game involves smaller conference teams where the offenses are worlds ahead of the horrendous defenses. Tulsa, North Texas, etc.

The offenses are certainly ahead here as well, but there is at least talent on the defensive side of the ball for each team. Also, I just think its hard to line too many games in the 70s with the current clock rules.

And yes, a Texas/Missouri should in theory be higher scoring that an OU/UT game, we all the transitive property doesn't work in gambling, just like it wouldn't if I tried to use the Oklahoma St./Missouri game as justification for a lower number (I thought that 80 number was a joke fwiw).

I do agree that this will open higher than 67.5. I'll be tempted by the under if its 74 though.
 
broadwayjoe said:
think that miami/bg number looks a little short...may be on that over if it opens there...
Click to expand...

How high would you put it? I could see it in the high 40s, but I think 50 or higher would be pushing it.

Miami OH has scored 13 or less in four of their five games against D-I competition. And against Cincy, where they scored 20, one of their TD drives involved 40 Cincinnati penalty yards. Their only TD against NIU was a punt return for TD as well.

Granted, some very solid Ds in that mix: Vandy, Michigan, Cincy, Temple, NIU. Bowling Green doesn't compare favorably to any of them, and Miami OH should score a little more. Still, I like Miami OH's D against the MAC and until the Redhawks prove it a little on offense, I couldn't put this too high.

I would also look at the over if it dips into the low 40s though.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Maybe, but I'll be honest when I say that I'm always a bit hesitant to put too many games in the 70s, just like I'm hesitnat to put any game in the mid-30s even if the numbers warrant it.

When I think of putting teams in the 70s, I more apt to do it when the game involves smaller conference teams where the offenses are worlds ahead of the horrendous defenses. Tulsa, North Texas, etc.

The offenses are certainly ahead here as well, but there is at least talent on the defensive side of the ball for each team. Also, I just think its hard to line too many games in the 70s with the current clock rules.

And yes, a Texas/Missouri should in theory be higher scoring that an OU/UT game, we all the transitive property doesn't work in gambling, just like it wouldn't if I tried to use the Oklahoma St./Missouri game as justification for a lower number (I thought that 80 number was a joke fwiw).

I do agree that this will open higher than 67.5. I'll be tempted by the under if its 74 though.
Click to expand...

agree. I pounded under 80 but that was mostly b/c I knew OSU would run a decent amount and control the clock. I don't think that's the case with Mizzou or Texas. Texas can't really run it. Mizzou will be able to throw quite a bit on the UT secondary which is still the weak link.
 
Bump - starting my lookout for the numbers.

cubs - the ingredients are obviously there for a high scoring game, and if I make an under play on a number in the mid-70s, it would be strictly due to my numbers.
 
Gonna let the lines settle and then I'll post the openers along with the current numbers - still waiting out UL Laf.
 
It's gotta be an error - makes zero sense. Still up though.
Click to expand...

I made the number 38, and I'll betting the under as soon as y'all finish driving the number up. NW hasn't gone over 44 this year, and Purdue is all defense.
 
M.W. said:
I made the number 38, and I'll betting the under as soon as y'all finish driving the number up. NW hasn't gone over 44 this year, and Purdue is all defense.
Click to expand...


they went over last week. the only time over 44 against michigan state.

they also hti 44 in the rain game with duke.

purdue has gone over 44 in 4 of 6 though the last two games they bowed up defensively and got shut down by two of the best defenses in the country.
 
Your right, oddsmakers must see something.

M.W. talk to me about Boiler D. ---I would rank Iowa, Oh St, PSU, Mich, Wisky, MSU, Illinois, Minney, ahead of Boiler D. So they are like 9, 10, or 11 inconference.

--Spack's D does play fast, your not going to get the edges on them and perhaps the best in the conference in this area, but they can flat out be gutted. ND, PSU, over 200 rushing, Oregon over 300.

IMO the Oh State game might have something to do with this. If that is the case this is an overreaction number with value. Oh St had 97 yards passing but haven't passed over 150 entire year so means little. Purdue held buckeyes to 120 rushing, which was surprising but not really when you realize Tressel shuts game plans down and only believes on working on things in practice, not in a game. TOSU did not attack in the belly, they tried to get on the edges with Pryor, Purdue's strength. Purdue was run blitzing all day because they knew no threat of pass.

---I think the linesmakers see the spread of NWestern passing against an undersized Purdue D and think it's a great matchup. I'm not sure I agree with this, CMU had their way with this Purdue D. I think Sutton is going to have a big day here and then you have to look at Purdue scoring on the Nwestern O.

This was a 38-17 game last year.
 
I'll have much more to say about this game.

The only reason NW hadn't gone over 44 until this week is because they hadn't played a real offense yet. Purdue is sadly the 2nd best offense they have seen all season.
 
M.W. said:
I made the number 38, and I'll betting the under as soon as y'all finish driving the number up. NW hasn't gone over 44 this year, and Purdue is all defense.
Click to expand...

Only if you focus on last week. They have given up 400+ yards to every D-I team they have faced until last week. They even gave up 330 to Northern Colorado.

If you made this 38, what did you make Miss St/Tennessee?
 
O-State said:
Your right, oddsmakers must see something.

M.W. talk to me about Boiler D. ---I would rank Iowa, Oh St, PSU, Mich, Wisky, MSU, Illinois, Minney, ahead of Boiler D. So they are like 9, 10, or 11 inconference.

--Spack's D does play fast, your not going to get the edges on them and perhaps the best in the conference in this area, but they can flat out be gutted. ND, PSU, over 200 rushing, Oregon over 300.

IMO the Oh State game might have something to do with this. If that is the case this is an overreaction number with value. Oh St had 97 yards passing but haven't passed over 150 entire year so means little. Purdue held buckeyes to 120 rushing, which was surprising but not really when you realize Tressel shuts game plans down and only believes on working on things in practice, not in a game. TOSU did not attack in the belly, they tried to get on the edges with Pryor, Purdue's strength. Purdue was run blitzing all day because they knew no threat of pass.

---I think the linesmakers see the spread of NWestern passing against an undersized Purdue D and think it's a great matchup. I'm not sure I agree with this, CMU had their way with this Purdue D. I think Sutton is going to have a big day here and then you have to look at Purdue scoring on the Nwestern O.

This was a 38-17 game last year.
Click to expand...


yeah purdue has looked bad defensively outside of the ohio state game.

oregon 26 fd and 503 yards of offense
cmich 26 first downs and 440 yards of offense
notre dmae 23 first downs and 476 yards of offense
penn state 24 first downs and 422 yards of offense
ohio state 14 first downs and 222 yards of offense ( only team of the bunch that cant throw )
 
Ok, here are the openers compared with the current numbers:

Open - current:

Hawaii - Boise St.: 51-51.5

UConn - Rutgers: 44.5-44
Wake Forest - Maryland: 43-43
Georgia Tech - Clemson: 38-38.5
Memphis - East Carolina: 54-54.5
Miami FL - Duke: 46.5-44.5
Va. Tech - Boston College: 42-41
Syracuse - South Florida: 51.5-49.5
Wisconsin - Iowa: 42.5-42.5
Purdue - Northwestern: 42.5-45
Kansas - Oklahoma: 60.5-60.5
Miami OH - Bowling Green: 46.5-47.5
Western Mich - Central Mich: 53.5-54.5
Nebraska - Iowa St.: 59.5-57.5
Mississippi St. - Tennessee: 35-36.5
Mississippi - Alabama: 49.5-49.5
Vanderbilt - Georgia: 44.5-44.5
Akron - Eastern Michigan: 50.5-50.5
Colorado St. - Utah: 50-49.5
Texas Tech - Texas A&M: 66-66
So. Miss - Rice: 68.5-69.5 (considering the under here)
USC - Washington St.: 55-55.5
Pittsburgh - Navy: 49.5-50.5
Ohio St. - Michigan St.: 41-41
Missouri - Texas: 70-69.5
North Carolina - Virginia: 44.5-46
Toledo - N. Illinois: 46-46.5
Utah St. - Nevada: 66.5-66
Marshall - UAB: 55-55
Michigan - Penn St.: 48.5-47.5
San Diego St. - New Mexico: 44.5-44.5
Oregon St. - Washington: 62.5-60.5
Arkansas - Kentucky: 43.5-43.5
California - Arizona: 54.5-54.5
Idaho - Louisiana Tech: 55.5-55.5
Kansas St. - Colorado: 62.5-63
Baylor - Oklahoma St.: 67-68.5
Army - Buffalo: 46.5-45.5
LSU - South Carolina: 45-44.5
UTEP - Tulsa: 76.5-76.5
San Jose St - New Mexico St.: 51-53
Houston - SMU: 69.5-70.5
Indiana - Illinois: 57.5-55.5
Air Force - UNLV: 54.5-54.5
Stanford - UCLA: 46
Florida Atlantic - Western Kentucky: 44.5-44
Middle Tenn St. - Louisville: 48-48
North Texas - UL Monroe: 65.5-66
Arkansas St. - UL Lafayette: 69.5-off (this very briefly opened at 69.5)
Florida International - Troy: 45-45
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

B.A.R.
Week #1 Discussion
Replies
31
Views
1K
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
Tito
Week 1
Replies
1
Views
273
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
Tito
Week 5 - CFB
Replies
1
Views
215
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
Wiretowire
NCAA Thursday, Friday, and Saturday 9/22, 9/23, and 9/24
Replies
2
Views
392
Wiretowire
Wiretowire
bookieassassin
WEEK 3
Replies
32
Views
2K
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
Back
Top