Tuesday Totals Discussion

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Figured I'd get this started now since they went ahead and snuck the weekday games in early. Still making my projections though, so I'll edit those in the thread in the morning.

The ones that are out:

Open - Current

Troy/Fla. Atlantic: 48.5?-51
Clemson/Wake Forest: 44?-43.5
UAB/Houston: 65?-66
Louisville/Memphis: 57?-56

Saturday Projections

East Carolina - Virginia: 40.5
Syracuse - West Virginia: 50
Iowa - Indiana: 47
Minnesota - Illinois: 57
Michigan St. - Northwestern: 54.5
Texas - Oklahoma: 55? (I have zero idea of where to place this, help)
Eastern Mich - Army: 46.5
Iowa St. - Baylor: 54
South Carolina - Kentucky: 41
W. Michigan - Buffalo: 56
Vanderbilt - Mississippi St.: 37.5
Utah - Wyoming: 45 (not adjusted for the weather)
Kansas St. - Texas A&M: 53.5
Temple - Central Mich: 46
Purdue - Ohio St.: 47
TCU - Colorado St.: 44.5 (not adjusted for weather)
Oklahoma St. - Missouri: 70
Tennessee - Georgia: 43
Arizona St. - USC: 48.5?
UCLA - Oregon: 55 (had a tough time with this one)
Toledo - Michigan: 43
Notre Dame - North Carolina: 47.5
Arkansas - Auburn: 41
New Mexico St - Nevada: 68
Miami Ohio - N. Illinois: 44
New Mexico - BYU: 49 (not adjusted for weather)
Washington St. - Oregon St.: 57.5
Arizona - Stanford: 57
Bowling Green - Akron: 53.5
Ohio - Kent St.: 48
Rutgers - Cincinnati: 47
Nebraska - Texas Tech: 69.5
Colorado - Kansas: 57
Penn St. - Wisconsin: 46.5
Central Fla. - Miami Fla.: 45?
LSU - Florida: 51? (help here)
Utah St. - San Jose St.: 50
Tulsa - SMU: 73.5
Boise St. - Southern Miss: 56.5
Tulane - UTEP: 54.5
Air Force - San Diego St.: 45.5
Idaho - Fresno St.: 63.5
La. Tech - Hawaii: 47

Ball St. - Western Kentucky: 50
UL Monroe - Arkansas St: 59
Middle Tenn St. - Florida Int.: 44.5
UL- Lafayette - North Texas: 69





I don't think I'll be betting any of these weekday totals, but I think the Wake total is little low and I think the Memphis total is a bit high.

The above is of 7:25 EST on Monday. If anyone noticed what the actual openers were, please post them. (Troy/FAU opener is from Sportsnut's post in the thread)
 
Last edited:
Some movement on the refresh:

Troy/FAU up a point to 51.5
Clemson/Wake down .5 to 43.5
UAB/Houston up a point to 66
Louisville/Memphis down a point to 56
 
SportsNut said:
Not sure how accurate but SI has the opener for the FAU game at 48.5 FWIW
Click to expand...

Thanks SN - I'll post that as the opener unless someone has a more definitive source. :cheers:

BTW, good call on UK/Bama last week. Never really sniffed 44. :cheers:
 
UTA/WYO
TCU/CSU
NMU/BYU

All three have major weather questions. Expect snow/sleet in all of them. Plan accordingly.
 
Wish I had known about the weather in the Utah/Wyoming game. I told myself anything under 24 and I would play it. Hopefully, it won't effect Utah too much.
 
Bump for Saturday projections and more discussion.

I didn't adjust for JPicks' weather report because we are still four days out and I'm not sure how much I would adjust the total because of the this weather. It should definitely be kept in mind for betting those MWC totals though.
 
dylanphan said:
I also think WMU/Buffalo total is about 7-10 points too high
Click to expand...

Disagree here, particularly based on the last week numbers:

BG/EMU: mid 50s
WMU/Ohio: low 50s
Akron/Kent: low 50s

This match-up is more explosive than the WMU/Ohio game, which was in the low 50s if memory recalls. I'll be on the over if they place this lower than 50.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Disagree here, particularly based on the last week numbers:

BG/EMU: mid 50s
WMU/Ohio: low 50s
Akron/Kent: low 50s

This match-up is more explosive than the WMU/Ohio game, which was in the low 50s if memory recalls. I'll be on the over if they place this lower than 50.
Click to expand...
It's good to disagree :pillow:as I'll be on the under if the total is that high. Keep in mind, the WMU/Ohio game was 11-7 at half, and there were 33 points scored in the 4th quarter. Buffalo totals were posted in the mid-40s vs Temple and Pitt. I think WMU's defense is underrated personally. Last year's total was posted at 42, I'm not sure this game warrants two additional TD's to that total.
:cheers:
 
dylanphan said:
It's good to disagree :pillow:as I'll be on the under if the total is that high. Keep in mind, the WMU/Ohio game was 11-7 at half, and there were 33 points scored in the 4th quarter. Buffalo totals were posted in the mid-40s vs Temple and Pitt. I think WMU's defense is underrated personally. Last year's total was posted at 42, I'm not sure this game warrants two additional TD's to that total.
:cheers:
Click to expand...

I know the WMU/Ohio game had no business going over, but there were some decent yardage totals in that game, so its not like it should have went way under the total either.

The mid-40s number on Temple was a terrible number as it was basically over the number by the half. DiMichele was still around for that one so that offenses did well.

I think the mid-40s for the Pitt game was warranted as Pitt plays conservatively against teams they should beat. Their defense is also plenty good enough to contain a MAC squad. I don't think there is a comparison.

I agree that WMU's D is underrated and I think they are the best in the MAC right now. Still, I just see two balanced, solid offenses that will be tough for the opposing defenses to handle.
 
I see WMU/Buffalo opened at 54 - much closer to DMoney's projection than I expected. If that number is around when it opens at one of my outs, I'll be on the under. :)
 
I would recommend a look at the Clemson vs Wake over. I don't know what the weeknight trend is on unders (I think it is for them) but I see this game going over. I think Skinner will have a solid night against Clemson's soft zone coverage, though Clemson did play man to man successfully in the 2nd and 3rd quarters against Maryland. It was one of the first times all season Clemson went to a man-to-man defense and I was fairly impressed. I wouldn't expect much of it though based on history.

Also, I think Clemson will have success running the football if they stick to it and I will go out on a limb and predict that CJ Spiller has one touchdown of > 50 yards, be it on special teams, a screen pass or a run. I think the final score will end up somewhere around 30-24. I could also see either team winning in blowout fashion, thereby hitting the over as well.

My leans on this game are:
Clemson ML--had Wake been the dog I would have leaned Wake ML. I think its a virtual toss-up. From everything I'm reading/hearing Clemson is very confident going into this game. I'm sure Wake is too, but I say take the +++ on the ML when a game appears to be this close. Its just like getting an extra 2 points on the spread in any other game in terms of payout

Over for reasons discussed above

Clemson / Over teased, again for reasons discussed above. Though I wouldn't be shocked to see Wake win in blowout fashion I really think Clemson will be able to score. They have done historically well offensively coming off their bye week.
2007 off bye week they beat Central Michigan 70-17
2006 off bye week they lost to So Car 31-28
2005 off bye week they beat NCSU 31-10 as 4 pt underdogs

That is as far back as I will go b/c that includes current seniors and current offensive coordinators so I don't think its helpful to go back further than 2005. Also, under the current coordinators Clemson tends to do well coming off of their annual fuck up game where they lose to a horrible team or lose to a team when its all on the line.
2007--lost to BC with a chance to go to the ACC CG. Next week they rebound to beat South Carolina in Columbia. They also lost to a bad GT team in ATL in 2007 but followed it up by getting blown out by Va Tech at home
2006--lost heartbreaker at BC by missing an XP and then went on the road to beat FSU the next week. Also they lost to Maryland at home in 2006 with an ACC CG berth on the line and then won against NCSU at home. Not an impressive win over NCSU but they won.
2005--bad loss at Wake Forest and rebounded by going on the road to beat NCSU as underdogs. Bad loss at GT and rebounded by blowing out Duke and FSU in the following weeks.
 
Just these three for me:

NW/Mich St. Over 44 - medium
Toledo/Michigan Under 53.5 - medium
Ok. St./Missouri Under 78.5 - small

Also considering:

Iowa/Indiana over 42
KSU/TAMU under 63.5
BG/Akron over 48.5
 
dylanphan said:
I see WMU/Buffalo opened at 54 - much closer to DMoney's projection than I expected. If that number is around when it opens at one of my outs, I'll be on the under. :)
Click to expand...

Down to 53. GL on the under as I won't be on it either way. :cheers:
 
Many may be wrong because my computer was running very slow and its from memory:

Open - current:

East Carolina - Virginia: 41.5-43
Syracuse - West Virginia: 48-47
Iowa - Indiana: 42-42
Minnesota - Illinois: 55.5-55.5
Michigan St. - Northwestern: 44-45.5
Texas - Oklahoma: 58?-57.5
Eastern Mich - Army: 45.5-45.5
Iowa St. - Baylor: 59-59
South Carolina - Kentucky: 38-38 (Good call ETG)
W. Michigan - Buffalo: 54-53
Vanderbilt - Mississippi St.: 37.5-37.5
Utah - Wyoming: 46-47
Kansas St. - Texas A&M: 63.5-63.5 (Seems high to me)
Temple - Central Mich: 48-47.5
Purdue - Ohio St.: 43.5-44.5
TCU - Colorado St.: 49-48.5
Oklahoma St. - Missouri: 78.5-78.5
Tennessee - Georgia: 41.5-41.5
Arizona St. - USC: ?-46.5
UCLA - Oregon: 56-56
Toledo - Michigan: 53.5-52
Notre Dame - North Carolina: 47-45.5
Arkansas - Auburn: 38-38.5
New Mexico St - Nevada: 64.5-66.5
Miami Ohio - N. Illinois: 41-41.5
New Mexico - BYU: 51-50.5
Washington St. - Oregon St.: 56-55
Arizona - Stanford: 54-54
Bowling Green - Akron: 48.5-48.5
Ohio - Kent St.: 52-52
Rutgers - Cincinnati: 47.5-48
Nebraska - Texas Tech: 69-69
Colorado - Kansas: 54-54
Penn St. - Wisconsin: ?-47
Central Fla. - Miami Fla.: 52-52 (actually went up to 54 and then back to 52)
LSU - Florida: 48.5-47
Utah St. - San Jose St.: 48-47
Tulsa - SMU: 77-77
Boise St. - Southern Miss: 55-54
Tulane - UTEP: 55-59.5
Air Force - San Diego St.: 48-47
Idaho - Fresno St.: 64-62
La. Tech - Hawaii: 48-47

Ball St. - Western Kentucky: 47-47
UL Monroe - Arkansas St: 54-54
Middle Tenn St. - Florida Int.: 41.5-41.5
UL- Lafayette - North Texas: 64.5-64.5


Bolded moves are of 2 points or more. Please correct any error if you have more definitive information.
 
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