Tuesday Totals Discussion

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Here we go:

MTSU - FAU: 51.5

La. Tech - Boise St.: 53

Pittsburgh - South Florida: 47
Memphis - UAB: 58
Oregon St. - Utah: 54 (help me out here)

Cincinnati - Marshall: 46
BYU - Utah St.: 53 (Not sure here, but can't project Utah St. getting more than 14)

Boston College - NC State: 41.5
Rutgers - West Virginia: 49.5
Penn St - Purdue: 57
Iowa - Michigan St.: 46.5
Indiana - Minnesota: 60
Maryland - Virginia: 41
UConn - North Carolina: 46 (Where do place this?)
South Carolina - Mississippi: 48
Texas Tech - Kansas St.: 70.5
Kansas - Iowa St.: 61
Duke - Georgia Tech: 48
Auburn - Vanderbilt: 40
UNLV - Colorado St.: 59.5
Ohio - Western Michigan: 51
Stanford - Notre Dame: 46.5?
Army - Tulane: 43
Temple - Miami OH: 41
Illinois - Michigan: 47
Missouri - Nebraska: 68
Texas - Colorado: 58?
Florida St - Miami FL: 39.5
Arizona St. - California: 57
Florida - Arkansas: 59
Kentucky - Alabama: 47.5
SMU - Central Florida: 55
Eastern Michigan - Bowling Green: 56.5
Navy - Air Force: 48
Nevada - Idaho: 64
San Diego St. - TCU: 42.5
Wash St. - UCLA: 45.5
Washington - Arizona: 56?
No. Illinois - Tennessee: 51? (no clue)
Ball St. - Toledo: 59
Akron - Kent: 55.5
UTEP - So. Miss: 59
Oklahoma - Baylor: 62
Texas A&M - Oklahoma St.: 55
Ohio St. - Wisconsin: 44
Rice - Tulsa: 76.5
Oregon - USC: 55?
Wyoming - New Mexico: 40
Hawaii - Fresno St: 49?

Western Kentucky - Va. Tech: 43
UL Lafayette - UL Monroe: 53
Florida Int - North Texas: 57


Another difficult week to cap. Let me know where I screwed up.

The weekday games may be released early today before the Saturday games, so keep an eye out for that. BOL to all. :cheers:
 
Potentially good spots (in my opinion):

FAU/MTSU Over
La. Tech/Boise St. Under
Kansas/Iowa St. Under (very good spot IMO)
Duke/GT Over
Ohio/Western Mich Over
Temple/Miami OH Over
ULL/ULM Under
 
Dmoney416 said:
Potentially good spots (in my opinion):

FAU/MTSU Over
La. Tech/Boise St. Under
Kansas/Iowa St. Under (very good spot IMO)
Duke/GT Over
Ohio/Western Mich Over
Temple/Miami OH Over
ULL/ULM Under
Click to expand...


Game was circled by me as well to find over value.

I would be extremely leery of taking an under in a midweek game on the blue turf. BCS buster is going to pull out all the stops.f

Also , i agree with your number on emich-bgsu .. but have a feeling we get something lower from them ... another one i have targeted to the over.

unlv/csu number looks high to me.

i think they open that cal-asu game near where you think ... and if they do i have to think about the under.

wont be around for openers today so gl with whatever gems the books throw your way.

love this thread every week.
 
I haven't looked over the FAU/MTSU matchup, but the Tuesday totals have historically gone under the number for the last 3 years or so. I was trying to find my old threads on it, but it might have been from the days on that other place...
 
dylanphan said:
Too high on Nevada/Idaho and I think too low on Kentucky/Alabama
pretty solid though.
Click to expand...

You are right on Nevada/Idaho - asking 20 from Idaho may be too much.

I also agree on Bama/UK, but I think we may see a number like 47 given that UK has only allowed 22 points in four game thus far.
 
vegaskyle said:
Game was circled by me as well to find over value.

I would be extremely leery of taking an under in a midweek game on the blue turf. BCS buster is going to pull out all the stops.f

Also , i agree with your number on emich-bgsu .. but have a feeling we get something lower from them ... another one i have targeted to the over.

unlv/csu number looks high to me.

i think they open that cal-asu game near where you think ... and if they do i have to think about the under.

wont be around for openers today so gl with whatever gems the books throw your way.

love this thread every week.
Click to expand...

- I'll be interested to see if La. Tech does what you say or decides to play ball control.

- haha, I think I'm done trying to figure out EMU. Likely a stay away (total wise, anyway) unless they throw a ridiculous number out there.

- Probably right on UNLV. Just basically looked at the box scores there. Haven't seen either team play.

- Obviously wasn't sure on Cal. The Best injury confuses things.

- Could see some MAC value in the totals today after Temple/WMU's game last week.
 
BigRaktor said:
I haven't looked over the FAU/MTSU matchup, but the Tuesday totals have historically gone under the number for the last 3 years or so. I was trying to find my old threads on it, but it might have been from the days on that other place...
Click to expand...

Would be interested in that info if you happen to find it BR. Not much of a trend guy myself, but it would definitely be nice to see.

How many regular season Tuesday games are there in a typical season? Three or four? It seems early this season for a Tuesday game.
 
BigRaktor said:
I haven't looked over the FAU/MTSU matchup, but the Tuesday totals have historically gone under the number for the last 3 years or so. I was trying to find my old threads on it, but it might have been from the days on that other place...
Click to expand...


you would be correct sir, tuesdays have been hitting under at over 75% the last few years
 
Dmoney416 said:
Would be interested in that info if you happen to find it BR. Not much of a trend guy myself, but it would definitely be nice to see.

How many regular season Tuesday games are there in a typical season? Three or four? It seems early this season for a Tuesday game.
Click to expand...

I keep getting fucked by the firewall here at work, so I can't even get to wagerline to check Tuesday/Wednesday games for the last three years, but I've watched this trend for at least the last two years. As was mentioned above, it is right around 75%. My reasoning has always been this...Its fukin Tuesday man...they still have to hit class on Wed, Thu, Fri (assuming they go), and there always seems to be less enthusiasm to score in these games.
 
^well i guess that trend would make sense for the reasons you mentioned and a couple of other factors...these are usually smaller schools (players being together a little longer) and conference games, meaning that teams are very familiar with each other...the defensive numbers are often skewed because they just played a bunch of bigger schools that scored on them...it's usually the only game on, so the over is shaded, making the under have some value

with all that being said, the past history between these two teams of not necessarily lighting up the scoreboard, and the 75% trend, i still think the only way to play this total is over. gl though fellas, it'd be a helluva trend to duck if i do play it...thanks for the info
 
if the oregon state number comes out at that, i may have to be on the under...was thinking 34-10.

i like all of your leans dmoney, except for the duke over which i don't really have a feel for either way, and the temple over
 
I am really thinking D that Wisky/OSU gets to the low to mid 50's in the game so I would be all over that over.. I think OSU can put up 21-27 with Pryor dual thread (something Wisconsin has always had a huge problem with, see Williams, Juice last year). Beanie is back, add that to the fact I think Wisconsin front 4 is not as good as people make them out to be. Secondary is still a question as well. Henry who was arguably the best corner last year will now most likely redshirt due to the ACL. Lack of depth at the corner, and mental mistakes at the saftey due to poor tackling, bad angles etc will lead to a couple big plays down the field.

I have really not seen the OSU defense much this year. I know they got their playmakers in Freeman, Laurinaitis, Jenkins, but Wisconsin can run the ball on anybody. plain and simple. They got 17 on them last year without Hill, Lance Smith, and 2 of their offensive lineman I believe. Now they go 3 deep at RB all very good ones and the entire O-line has huge experience. Beckum, Graham both look like they are going to play, who are their big play threats down the field.
Anything under 46 I will be on the over pretty big
 
^i would definitely agree with you signalcaller, but can't see them opening too far off 45. maybe wishful thinking, as i like the over in that one as well
 
SportsNut said:
Just wanted to say nice work keeping this going every week. Always nice to have somesort of reference point ....very helpful IMO.Thanks and GL:cheers:
Click to expand...

Appreciate it SN - hope to do something similar with CBB whenever time allows. :cheers:
 
COLLEGE FOOTBALL - Sep 30
COLLEGE FOOTBALL - ADDED GAME TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30TH
5:00 PM
301 FLA ATLANTIC +2½-110 o52-110 +120
302 MIDDLE TENN ST -2½-110 u52-110 -140
COLLEGE FOOTBALL - Oct 01
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1ST
5:00 PM
303 LOUISIANA TECH +22½-110 o57-110 +1500
304 BOISE ST -22½-110 u57-110 -2500
COLLEGE FOOTBALL - Oct 02
COLLEGE FOOTBALL THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2ND
4:45 PM
305 PITTSBURGH U +13½-110 o48-110 +500
306 SOUTH FLA -13½-110 u48-110 -625
5:00 PM
307 MEMPHIS -3½-110 o59-110 -165
308 UAB +3½-110 u59-110 +145
6:00 PM
309 OREGON ST +11½-110 o51½-110 +395
310 UTAH -11½-110 u51½-110 -475
 
Dmoney416 said:
59.5 seems high for BYU?
Click to expand...

:shake:

I was thinking the same thing. Not giving that BYU defense enough credit.

Spread is 28..... so are they thinking that Utah state is going to put up 17 here?

I dont...

They put up 10 against utah and only 17 against UNLV....
 
59.5 is a bit high in the byu game. think i'd rather have the under than the cougars right now
 
I have the following:

BYU/Utah St. Under 59.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Rutgers/WV Over 43 (1.65u to win 1.5)
UK/Alabama Over 44.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Nevada/Idaho Under 71 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Wash St./UCLA Under 57.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Cincy/Marshall Under 53.5 (1.1u to win 1)

What does everyone else have?

I'll try to post openers and current once the lines settle.
 
CapTwo said:
:shake:

Like that one too.

Two teams that run the option, and will look to run the ball 95% of the game.

51 looks too high.
Click to expand...

They've had totals of 51, 41, 51, 45 and 53 over the last 5 years and neither of these offenses is as good as recent years. With neither team throwing the ball at all in this game I don't see how they get to 51 or even to the 40's for that matter.

Beyond this one and WYO/NM unders I also played the TCU/SDSU under 48.
 
soft california rain looks like only weather concerns at this point in the week. so basically a weather free week.
 
JPicks said:
They've had totals of 51, 41, 51, 45 and 53 over the last 5 years and neither of these offenses is as good as recent years. With neither team throwing the ball at all in this game I don't see how they get to 51 or even to the 40's for that matter.

Beyond this one and WYO/NM unders I also played the TCU/SDSU under 48.
Click to expand...


wow..i already took the over in the service game 51 along with the over in the Stan/ND over 48
 
what i played

emich/bgsu over 54.5
ohio/wmich over 50.5
rutgers/wvu over 44.5
temple/miamioh over 39
wyo/unm under 44
cincy/marshall under 52.5

:)
 
Dmoney416 said:
You are right on Nevada/Idaho - asking 20 from Idaho may be too much.

I also agree on Bama/UK, but I think we may see a number like 47 given that UK has only allowed 22 points in four game thus far.
Click to expand...
Just an FYI, I put my money where my mouth was...'
un68.5 Nevada/Idaho
o45 Bama/UK

Both are double unit plays for me.
:cheers:
 
Really dont like the Bama over though . Just notsure what Kentucky is going to contribute the performance at Georgia was skewing some things IMO . Short fields really dont count when I evaluate scoring . I was think 24-14 type game which isnt enough to play and under but curious why you guys like the over ..Thanks and GL
 
Ok, here is the open (as I saw it, so there could be a couple of errors - please let me know) and the current number. I'm placing my number in parentheses at the end just to show what I was thinking. Basically any number at least 6 points different than mine gets a serious look from me. There are certain instances where this is not the case though since I will admit to being clueless on a particular game.

Open-current (my guess)

MTSU - FAU: 47.5-52 (51.5) (not sure where this officially closed at)

La. Tech - Boise St.: 57-56.5 (53)

Pittsburgh - South Florida: 48-48 (47)
Memphis - UAB: 59-57.5 (58)
Oregon St. - Utah: 51.5-53 (54)

Cincinnati - Marshall: 53.5-51.5 (46)
BYU - Utah St.: 59.5-59.5 (53)

Boston College - NC State: 40-41 (41.5)
Rutgers - West Virginia: 43-45 (49.5)
Penn St - Purdue: 57-58 (57)
Iowa - Michigan St.: 44-45 (46.5)
Indiana - Minnesota: 57-58 (60)
Maryland - Virginia: 44.5-45 (41)
UConn - North Carolina: 45.5-45.5 (46)
South Carolina - Mississippi: 45-43 (48)
Texas Tech - Kansas St.: 64.5-66 (70.5)
Kansas - Iowa St.: 52.5-52.5 (61)
Duke - Georgia Tech: 42.5-45.5 (48)
Auburn - Vanderbilt: 37-37 (40)
UNLV - Colorado St.: 55-55 (59.5)
Ohio - Western Michigan: 50.5-51 (51)
Stanford - Notre Dame: 48-49 (46.5)
Army - Tulane: 41.5-41 (43)
Temple - Miami OH: 40-40 (41)
Illinois - Michigan: 52.5-51.5 (47)
Missouri - Nebraska: 70.5-69.5 (68)
Texas - Colorado: 62-57 (58)
Florida St - Miami FL: 45-43 (39.5)
Arizona St. - California: 56.5-55.5 (57)
Florida - Arkansas: 56-57 (59)
Kentucky - Alabama: 44.5-45 (47.5)
SMU - Central Florida: 55-56 (55)
Eastern Michigan - Bowling Green: 54.5-55 (56.5)
Navy - Air Force: 51-52 (48) (Strange early movement)
Nevada - Idaho: 71-68 (64)
San Diego St. - TCU: 49-48 (42.5)
Wash St. - UCLA: 57.5-56 (45.5)
Washington - Arizona: 60-58.5 (56)
No. Illinois - Tennessee: 44.5-45 (51)
Ball St. - Toledo: 64.5-64.5 (59)
Akron - Kent: 51-51 (55.5)
UTEP - So. Miss: 63-62 (59)
Oklahoma - Baylor: 63-63 (62)
Texas A&M - Oklahoma St.: 64-64 (55)
Ohio St. - Wisconsin: 44-44 (44)
Rice - Tulsa: 79-80.5 (76.5)
Oregon - USC: 56.5-56 (55)
Wyoming - New Mexico: 45.5-43 (40)
Hawaii - Fresno St: 55.5-54 (49)

Western Kentucky - Va. Tech: 42-42 (43)
UL Lafayette - UL Monroe: 54.5-54.5 (53)
Florida Int - North Texas: 56.5-57 (57)
 
SportsNut said:
Really dont like the Bama over though . Just notsure what Kentucky is going to contribute the performance at Georgia was skewing some things IMO . Short fields really dont count when I evaluate scoring . I was think 24-14 type game which isnt enough to play and under but curious why you guys like the over ..Thanks and GL
Click to expand...

I'll get back to this one SN. Interesting game for sure. :cheers:
 
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