MLB Daily Picks: Totals, Run Line & Money Line
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 6:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Roark’s Debut
Tanner Roark makes his debut tonight for Toronto, which will be his fourth major league ball club.
This fact — that he makes his debut — is really the only possible concern that I can link with Roark’s performance tonight because some pitchers do get uniquely nervous when they start for the first time with a new team.
Fortunately, Roark is experienced with making debut starts. He’s made three of these so far in his career — one with Washington, one with Cincinnati, and one with Oakland.
In two of those debut starts, he achieved an ERA under 2.00. So clearly, the potential pressure associated with trying to make a strong first impression is not evidently perceptible to Roark.
Roark vs Nationals Batters
I like Roark tonight mainly because of his strong history against active Washington batters.
They have accumulated 80 career at-bats against Roark and, in those 80 at-bats, their collective BA is .162. In fact, when facing Roark, they have 10 more strikeouts than hits.
It’s true that a quarter of their collective at-bats come from Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera is, incidentally, the only Nationals batter who hits him well.
So, Cabrera's disproportionate share of his club’s total at-bats against Roark is misleadingly inflating its paltry collective BA against Roark.
Expect Starlin Castro to struggle. He is 1-for-16 against Roark.
Familiarity?
One might wonder whether the Nationals possess an advantage in facing a former teammate.
While the mere hypothesis may sound plausible theoretically, there is no empirical bases for it in this case that could override what we already know about the history of active Nationals’ batters against Roark.
Roark mixes up his pitches well in the sense that he doesn’t throw a single pitch more than 30-35 percent of the time and in the sense that he throws five different pitches with over 10 percent frequency.
He also works both forwards and backwards, for example with his fastball and sinker. He does a good job of masking which pitch he’s delivering by keeping the vertical and horizontal release points of his pitches close to each other.
It’s his deceptiveness and unpredictability that, though known to Nationals batters, ensure Roark’s impenetrability.
Austin Voth
Voth makes his first start of the season for the Nationals.
He’ll have the disadvantage of facing a Toronto lineup that is currently one of the best at facing right-handed pitchers.
Four different Blue Jays are averaging .400 or better against righties this season. Randal Grichuk, for example, is hitting .429 against them.
The majority of Voth’s pitching arsenal is comprised of his fastball that has average velocity and average movement. Currently, the Jays are batting .400 against the fastball from righties.
The Verdict
Toronto is an underdog, although it has the pitching edge with Roark and a lineup that is thriving against righties and fastballs from righties.
I prefer to focus on the starters and will take Toronto on the first-half money-line when oddsmakers release it.
But you can already grab the full-game money-line at +126 with 5Dimes.
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML at +126 with 5Dimes
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Tuesday, July 27, 2020 at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Should Milwaukee Be Favored?
Oddsmakers have Milwaukee favored heavily. If you look at the team names, it’s easy to understand why one may, initially and thoughtlessly, want to favor Milwaukee.
But consider this: Pittsburgh is a professional team that belongs in the MLB. Its lineup scored four runs, nearly winning the opener against St. Louis, scored five runs in a series-concluding victory, and five in a near-win against Milwaukee.
In contrast, Milwaukee is starting a guy who, despite receiving multiple opportunities, has never been able to prove that he belongs in professional baseball.
It’s true that Josh Lindblom succeeded in Korea. But one’s track record in Korea provides absolutely zero indication of one’s ability to succeed in the MLB.
In six career MLB starts, Lindblom is 0-3 with a 5.97 ERA. That’s right: he has never won an MLB start.
Why Lindblom?
Milwaukee lost a host of starting pitchers during the offseason, each of whom would have easily been a more reliable choice than Lindblom.
These notable departures include Jimmy Nelson, Gio Gonzalez, Zach baby-face Davies, and Chase Anderson. Jhoulys Chacin left last year. Brett Anderson is on Milwaukee, but injured.
With this extensive cohort absent, the Brewers are favoring an absolute youth movement in their starting rotation.
„Youth movement“ is often a flattering euphemism for a host of unproven and unreliable players. In tonight’s case, with Lindblom, that is absolutely the case.
Lindblom will make his first MLB start since April of 2014, which is obviously a long time ago, and he’s about to experience how different the MLB (still) is from Korea.
Brewers vs Another Lefty
Milwaukee has been inconsistent out of the gates, alternating between scoring five or more runs and one or fewer.
In particular, left-handed pitchers have been a problem for the Brewers, who currently rank 27th in hitting .175 against them.
Tonight, they face a veteran in Derek Holland who has surrendered only five extra-base hits against active Brewer batters while achieving 17 strikeouts. Collectively, they are slugging .341 in 82 at-bats against him.
The Verdict
If Milwaukee’s scoring pattern holds, we will see another one- or zero-run output from it.
Regardless of this trend, Pittsburgh has great value as it sends a proven lefty on the mound. His Brewer counterpart doubtfully belongs in professional baseball.
I will take the Pirates on the first-half money-line. Right now, oddsmakers have released attractive odds for the full-game. After blowing a four-run lead last night, the Pirates will be extra hungry to seal a victory.
Best Bet: Pirates ML at +143 with Pinnacle
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 6:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Roark’s Debut
Tanner Roark makes his debut tonight for Toronto, which will be his fourth major league ball club.
This fact — that he makes his debut — is really the only possible concern that I can link with Roark’s performance tonight because some pitchers do get uniquely nervous when they start for the first time with a new team.
Fortunately, Roark is experienced with making debut starts. He’s made three of these so far in his career — one with Washington, one with Cincinnati, and one with Oakland.
In two of those debut starts, he achieved an ERA under 2.00. So clearly, the potential pressure associated with trying to make a strong first impression is not evidently perceptible to Roark.
Roark vs Nationals Batters
I like Roark tonight mainly because of his strong history against active Washington batters.
They have accumulated 80 career at-bats against Roark and, in those 80 at-bats, their collective BA is .162. In fact, when facing Roark, they have 10 more strikeouts than hits.
It’s true that a quarter of their collective at-bats come from Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera is, incidentally, the only Nationals batter who hits him well.
So, Cabrera's disproportionate share of his club’s total at-bats against Roark is misleadingly inflating its paltry collective BA against Roark.
Expect Starlin Castro to struggle. He is 1-for-16 against Roark.
Familiarity?
One might wonder whether the Nationals possess an advantage in facing a former teammate.
While the mere hypothesis may sound plausible theoretically, there is no empirical bases for it in this case that could override what we already know about the history of active Nationals’ batters against Roark.
Roark mixes up his pitches well in the sense that he doesn’t throw a single pitch more than 30-35 percent of the time and in the sense that he throws five different pitches with over 10 percent frequency.
He also works both forwards and backwards, for example with his fastball and sinker. He does a good job of masking which pitch he’s delivering by keeping the vertical and horizontal release points of his pitches close to each other.
It’s his deceptiveness and unpredictability that, though known to Nationals batters, ensure Roark’s impenetrability.
Austin Voth
Voth makes his first start of the season for the Nationals.
He’ll have the disadvantage of facing a Toronto lineup that is currently one of the best at facing right-handed pitchers.
Four different Blue Jays are averaging .400 or better against righties this season. Randal Grichuk, for example, is hitting .429 against them.
The majority of Voth’s pitching arsenal is comprised of his fastball that has average velocity and average movement. Currently, the Jays are batting .400 against the fastball from righties.
The Verdict
Toronto is an underdog, although it has the pitching edge with Roark and a lineup that is thriving against righties and fastballs from righties.
I prefer to focus on the starters and will take Toronto on the first-half money-line when oddsmakers release it.
But you can already grab the full-game money-line at +126 with 5Dimes.
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML at +126 with 5Dimes
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Tuesday, July 27, 2020 at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Should Milwaukee Be Favored?
Oddsmakers have Milwaukee favored heavily. If you look at the team names, it’s easy to understand why one may, initially and thoughtlessly, want to favor Milwaukee.
But consider this: Pittsburgh is a professional team that belongs in the MLB. Its lineup scored four runs, nearly winning the opener against St. Louis, scored five runs in a series-concluding victory, and five in a near-win against Milwaukee.
In contrast, Milwaukee is starting a guy who, despite receiving multiple opportunities, has never been able to prove that he belongs in professional baseball.
It’s true that Josh Lindblom succeeded in Korea. But one’s track record in Korea provides absolutely zero indication of one’s ability to succeed in the MLB.
In six career MLB starts, Lindblom is 0-3 with a 5.97 ERA. That’s right: he has never won an MLB start.
Why Lindblom?
Milwaukee lost a host of starting pitchers during the offseason, each of whom would have easily been a more reliable choice than Lindblom.
These notable departures include Jimmy Nelson, Gio Gonzalez, Zach baby-face Davies, and Chase Anderson. Jhoulys Chacin left last year. Brett Anderson is on Milwaukee, but injured.
With this extensive cohort absent, the Brewers are favoring an absolute youth movement in their starting rotation.
„Youth movement“ is often a flattering euphemism for a host of unproven and unreliable players. In tonight’s case, with Lindblom, that is absolutely the case.
Lindblom will make his first MLB start since April of 2014, which is obviously a long time ago, and he’s about to experience how different the MLB (still) is from Korea.
Brewers vs Another Lefty
Milwaukee has been inconsistent out of the gates, alternating between scoring five or more runs and one or fewer.
In particular, left-handed pitchers have been a problem for the Brewers, who currently rank 27th in hitting .175 against them.
Tonight, they face a veteran in Derek Holland who has surrendered only five extra-base hits against active Brewer batters while achieving 17 strikeouts. Collectively, they are slugging .341 in 82 at-bats against him.
The Verdict
If Milwaukee’s scoring pattern holds, we will see another one- or zero-run output from it.
Regardless of this trend, Pittsburgh has great value as it sends a proven lefty on the mound. His Brewer counterpart doubtfully belongs in professional baseball.
I will take the Pirates on the first-half money-line. Right now, oddsmakers have released attractive odds for the full-game. After blowing a four-run lead last night, the Pirates will be extra hungry to seal a victory.
Best Bet: Pirates ML at +143 with Pinnacle
