Tuesday Three Picks Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

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3-Pack Mixed August 1: 1 Side, 1 Prop, 1 Parlay


Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, August 1, 2023 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington

  • Jesse Scholtens enjoys strong form
  • Andrew Heaney is performing severely worse than usual, lately
  • The Rangers are struggling to hit well and to win games

Who Starts for the White Sox?

Jesse Scholtens starts for Chicago tonight.

Scholtens is normally a reliever, but he has starting experience.

Over the course of his last several outings, he shows strong form.

In his last 6.2 innings, he's allowed only two runs.

Scholtens' Arsenal

Primarily, Scholtens throws a fastball, slider, and curveball.

Scholtens' fastball and slider combine to make up almost 85 percent of his arsenal.

His heavy reliance on these two pitches is intelligent because they are very effective.

Both pitches yield a slugging rate below .400.

In particular, he plays them well off each other.

He is great at distributing his fastball evenly throughout the strike zone.

His low slider often follows his elevated fastball, changing the batter's eye level.

Texas' Hitting Form

The Rangers are suffering a three-game losing streak, as part of which they've mustered four runs.

Their poor form makes them look overvalued on the oddsboard.

Who Starts for Texas?

Andrew Heaney starts for the Rangers tonight.

Heaney enters tonight's game in poor form.

He's allowed a combined total of seven runs in his past two games.

His command has declined.

But his pitches also aren't very effective, as measured by their slugging rate allowed.

Best Bet: White Sox RL at -108 with BetOnline








Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Tuesday, August 1, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park in Maimi

  • Ranger Suarez enjoys a strong bounce-back spot
  • With his arsenal, Suarez does a good job of keeping hitters off-balance
  • Suarez loves facing the Marlins

Who Starts for the Phillies?

Philadelphia starts Ranger Suarez tonight.

Suarez enters tonight's game in a strong situational advantage, a classic bounce-back spot.

He has allowed four earned runs or more on three separate occasions before his last start.

After two of those starts, he allowed one run or fewer in his following start.

In the one exception, he allowed two runs.

This trend is particularly impressive because he's sustained it against the likes of Atlanta.

He has also sustained this trend against Miami.

This year, he clearly likes facing the Marlins.

In two starts against them, totaling ten innings, he allowed a combined total of two earned runs.

Suarez's Arsenal

Suarez throws a sinker, fastball, curveball, changeup, and cutter.

He doesn't throw a single pitch as much as 29 percent of the time while he throws all of these pitches with at least twelve percent frequency.

The variety in his arsenal helps keep hitters off-balance.

As heat maps show, he also does a great job both of mixing up his locations and of keeping pitches along the borders of the strike zone.

In placing his pitches away from the more middle parts of the strike zone, he keeps batters from doing much damage to them.

Best Bet: Ranger Suarez under 2.5 earned runs at -120 with BetOnline







Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, August 1, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston

  • Gavin Williams enjoys strong form
  • Framber Valdez is repeatedly getting beat up even by weaker lineups
  • Hitting-wise, the Guardians have cooled off

Who Starts for Cleveland?

Gavin Williams starts for the Guardians tonight.

Williams enters this game in strong form: he has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last three starts.

His current form is particularly respectable because he's sustained it against the toughest competition.

On July 15, he held the Rangers to two runs in five innings in their ballpark where they are impressively and substantially better than they are at home.

As part of his strong form, Williams has completely avoided the long ball.

In a similar vein, he is doing a good job of inducing soft contact and of avoiding hard contact.

Williams' Arsenal

In descending order of frequency, Williams throws a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup.

His fastball, slider, and curveball make up about 95 percent of his arsenal.

It is intelligent of him to rely so heavily on these three pitches because they are all very effective.

Opponents slug .377 against his fastball, .345 against his slider, and .391 against his curveball.

Williams likes to elevate his fastball, but he's also attack the lateral borders of the strike zone with it.

He complements his heater with a slider that averages 12.2 fewer mph.

This velocity differential creates a strong change of pace that bothers batters.

While he ably elevates his slider, he also likes to bury this pitch.

In doing so, he changes the batter's eye level, thus keeping him off-balance.

Likewise, he is more inclined to bury his curveball, which makes it play well off his elevated slider or especially his elevated heater.

His outlook today is especially strong against an Astros lineup that ranks below-average, .407, against his pitches from righties.

This is enough to suggest that he is a reliable pitcher, one who deserves a look when he is heavily underdogged because, even if you dislike his team's lineup, the +1.5 is still likely going to be a good bet.

Who Starts for Houston?

Framber Valdez starts for the Astros tonight.

He enters today's game in poor form.

In his last three starts, he's allowed a combined total of fifteen earned runs.

Even Oakland victimized him.

The Total

Hitting-wise, Cleveland has measurably cooled off.

So, while Williams enjoys superior form to his Astros' counterpart and while Cleveland has the better bullpen, as measured by ERA, the Guardians lack the weaponry to score too many runs.

Best Bet: Parlay Guardians RL at -128 & Under 8.5 at -120 at +227 odds with BetOnline
 
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