3 Player Props May 9: Arizona's Christian Walker Cannot Be Stopped
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Who Starts for Houston?
Framber Valdez starts for Houston today.
The fact that he is playing so well is actually a great thing for individual hitter props.
He is consistently lasting six or seven innings while facing as many as 29 batters.
This consistency means that it is likelier that individual batters who hit him well get to face him more times.
Valdez, while doing a great job of limiting opposing run production, is far from immune to giving up hits.
He has surrendered eight hits in three different starts.
So, for our prop bet, we'll want to invest in a player to get hits not to get RBIs.
Valdez should also be giving up more hits and general offensive production than he currently is.
This season, he is doing a poor job of inducing soft contact while batters are achieving hard contact against his pitches over 40 percent of the time.
Especially his sinker is problematic, although it is his favorite pitch to throw by far.
As heat maps show, he often leaves this pitch over the heart of the plate.
Its .289 xBA (expected batting average) suggests that batters will get more hits off this pitch.
Taylor Ward
My favorite Angels' batter to do well today is Taylor Ward.
Ward already has an excellent track record against Valdez.
He is 8-for-16 with a triple and a home run, amounting to a .625 slugging rate, in his career with Valdez on the mound.
Therefore, let's count on him to achieve at least an extra-base hit if not two singles.
Best Bet: Taylor Ward to record 2+ total bases at +150 with Bovada
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, May 9 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Starts for Miami?
Jesus Lazardo starts for Miami today.
Lazardo enjoys a strong reputation because of the success he enjoyed last year.
But this is a new season, and he is not quite the same pitcher.
His ERA has declined from 3.32 last year to 3.66 last year.
More tellingly, his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 3.96 this season after it was 3.12 last season.
Lazardo is striking out fewer batters and giving up more home runs.
On an outing-to-outing basis, he has repeatedly looked more vulnerable, often times giving up between six and eight hits and three or more earned runs.
His locational tendencies help explain his general decline.
Heat maps show that Lazardo often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where it is easier for batters to make effective contact.
In addition to doing a good job generating hard contact, opposing batters are elevating his pitches more often.
My Favorite Diamondbacks' Batter
Christian Walker has been unstoppable for Arizona: he carries a six-game hitting streak into today's game.
During this hit streak, he has accumulated a total of seven extra-base hits, including five home runs.
Two of his last home runs came in his last two games.
He is primed to continue thriving because he also matches up well against Lazardo, slugging .813 against his pitches from lefties.
For these reasons, expect him to continue achieving extra-base hits, although we'll still win our bet if he manages two singles.
Best Bet: Christian Walker to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 9:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Who Starts for Washington?
Patrick Corbin starts for the Nationals today.
Corbin isn't what he used to be.
Since achieving a 3.25 ERA in 2019, his ERA was 4.66 in 2020, 5.82 in 2021, 6.31 in 2022, and 5.17 so far.
He is a vulnerable pitcher who doesn't miss many bats -- his strikeout rate has declined from 10.60 strikeouts per nine innings in 2019 to 6.34 strikeouts per nine innings this season.
Moreover, he allows a lot of home runs and hard contact.
Since 2019, opposing batters every season are achieving hard contact over 40 percent of the time against his pitches.
Corbin's sinker is especially vulnerable, which is problematic because he throws this pitch almost half the time.
Heat maps show that he often leaves it in the middle of the strike zone.
Moreover, in itself it is not a good pitch. It lacks both spin and velocity.
Bad spin and velocity along with poor location generally explain Corbin's struggles.
In fact, the spin and velo of his pitches have declined since last year.
JD Davis
My favorite Giants' batter to take advantage of Corbin's vulnerabilities is JD Davis.
Davis already has an excellent track record against Corbin with a significant data sample.
In 37 at-bats, he has eleven hits with three doubles and four home runs.
This amounts to a .297 BA and .703 slugging rate.
Davis, who has raised his BA and slugging rate in May, is primed to do well against any pitcher, although Corbin is an exceptionally likely victim.
Thus, let's wager on him to achieve at least an extra-base hit if not two singles.
Best Bet: JD Davis to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
- Framber Valdez is due to give up more hits
- Valdez struggles to locate his favorite pitch
- Taylor Ward has an amazing track record against Valdez
Who Starts for Houston?
Framber Valdez starts for Houston today.
The fact that he is playing so well is actually a great thing for individual hitter props.
He is consistently lasting six or seven innings while facing as many as 29 batters.
This consistency means that it is likelier that individual batters who hit him well get to face him more times.
Valdez, while doing a great job of limiting opposing run production, is far from immune to giving up hits.
He has surrendered eight hits in three different starts.
So, for our prop bet, we'll want to invest in a player to get hits not to get RBIs.
Valdez should also be giving up more hits and general offensive production than he currently is.
This season, he is doing a poor job of inducing soft contact while batters are achieving hard contact against his pitches over 40 percent of the time.
Especially his sinker is problematic, although it is his favorite pitch to throw by far.
As heat maps show, he often leaves this pitch over the heart of the plate.
Its .289 xBA (expected batting average) suggests that batters will get more hits off this pitch.
Taylor Ward
My favorite Angels' batter to do well today is Taylor Ward.
Ward already has an excellent track record against Valdez.
He is 8-for-16 with a triple and a home run, amounting to a .625 slugging rate, in his career with Valdez on the mound.
Therefore, let's count on him to achieve at least an extra-base hit if not two singles.
Best Bet: Taylor Ward to record 2+ total bases at +150 with Bovada
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, May 9 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
- Jesus Lazardo has declined this season
- Christian Walker enjoys superb form
- Walker matches up well against Lazardo
Who Starts for Miami?
Jesus Lazardo starts for Miami today.
Lazardo enjoys a strong reputation because of the success he enjoyed last year.
But this is a new season, and he is not quite the same pitcher.
His ERA has declined from 3.32 last year to 3.66 last year.
More tellingly, his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 3.96 this season after it was 3.12 last season.
Lazardo is striking out fewer batters and giving up more home runs.
On an outing-to-outing basis, he has repeatedly looked more vulnerable, often times giving up between six and eight hits and three or more earned runs.
His locational tendencies help explain his general decline.
Heat maps show that Lazardo often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where it is easier for batters to make effective contact.
In addition to doing a good job generating hard contact, opposing batters are elevating his pitches more often.
My Favorite Diamondbacks' Batter
Christian Walker has been unstoppable for Arizona: he carries a six-game hitting streak into today's game.
During this hit streak, he has accumulated a total of seven extra-base hits, including five home runs.
Two of his last home runs came in his last two games.
He is primed to continue thriving because he also matches up well against Lazardo, slugging .813 against his pitches from lefties.
For these reasons, expect him to continue achieving extra-base hits, although we'll still win our bet if he manages two singles.
Best Bet: Christian Walker to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 9:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
- Patrick Corbin isn't what he used to be
- Corbin's pitches lack quality in themselves. Plus, he locates them poorly
- JD Davis already has a strong track record against Corbin with a large data sample
Who Starts for Washington?
Patrick Corbin starts for the Nationals today.
Corbin isn't what he used to be.
Since achieving a 3.25 ERA in 2019, his ERA was 4.66 in 2020, 5.82 in 2021, 6.31 in 2022, and 5.17 so far.
He is a vulnerable pitcher who doesn't miss many bats -- his strikeout rate has declined from 10.60 strikeouts per nine innings in 2019 to 6.34 strikeouts per nine innings this season.
Moreover, he allows a lot of home runs and hard contact.
Since 2019, opposing batters every season are achieving hard contact over 40 percent of the time against his pitches.
Corbin's sinker is especially vulnerable, which is problematic because he throws this pitch almost half the time.
Heat maps show that he often leaves it in the middle of the strike zone.
Moreover, in itself it is not a good pitch. It lacks both spin and velocity.
Bad spin and velocity along with poor location generally explain Corbin's struggles.
In fact, the spin and velo of his pitches have declined since last year.
JD Davis
My favorite Giants' batter to take advantage of Corbin's vulnerabilities is JD Davis.
Davis already has an excellent track record against Corbin with a significant data sample.
In 37 at-bats, he has eleven hits with three doubles and four home runs.
This amounts to a .297 BA and .703 slugging rate.
Davis, who has raised his BA and slugging rate in May, is primed to do well against any pitcher, although Corbin is an exceptionally likely victim.
Thus, let's wager on him to achieve at least an extra-base hit if not two singles.
Best Bet: JD Davis to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
