3 Player Props May 2: Oddsmakers Need to Stop Disrespecting Arizona's Geraldo Perdomo
Los Angeles Angels vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Southpaw Steven Matz starts for St. Louis today.
In his last start, he got to face a Giants team that struggles against left-handed pitching.
But even in that game, despite the favorable matchup, he yielded a 4.50 ERA.
His current season ERA of 6.23 speaks to the extent of his problems.
He is regularly getting crushed while his pitches usually yield soft contact with rare frequency.
The lack of quality of his pitches hurts him.
They are generally characterized by modest-at-best velocity and a low spin rate, meaning that batters have no problem keeping up with them or tracking their movement and location.
To give a specific example, he relies most often on his sinker, which he throws 52.7 percent of the time.
On top of its other shortcomings, heat maps show that he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Consequently, it yields a .490 slugging rate.
Opposing batters will regularly see pitches from Matz that they can hit.
My Favorite Angels' Batter
My top Angels' candidate to thrive today is Hunter Renfroe.
Renfroe is a good candidate against any left-handed pitcher.
He is slugging .600 against lefties in general.
But there is promising evidence that he matches up particularly well against the Matz.
Albeit in a limited data sample, he is slugging 1.833 against Matz's three main pitches from lefties.
Given this evidence, we should trust Renfroe to achieve at least an extra-base hit if not two singles.
Best Bet: Hunter Renfroe to record 2+ total bases at +105 with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
Who Starts for Texas?
Jon Gray starts for Texas today.
While his 3.91 ERA is far from being considered good, it is a flattering statistic for him.
His 3.91 ERA masks his 5.88 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which shows how poorly he has actually been performing on an individual level.
He has benefitted, in particular, from yielding a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
As time progresses and he continues to perform poorly on an individual level, his opposing BABIP is sure to rise, such that his ERA will come closer to matching his awful FIP.
Gray's pitching arsenal certainly looks like the arsenal of a pitcher who batters inflict a lot of damage on.
His favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws almost half the time.
Despite the extent to which he relies on this pitch, his fastball is very vulnerable.
While its velocity is decent, its spin rate is terribly poor -- to be exact, his spin rate ranks in the third percentile.
Plus, as heat maps show, he often leaves his fastball over the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Given its shortcomings, his fastball yields a .342 BA and .632 slugging rate.
So, because this is his favorite pitch, he lacks a pitch that he can really rely on.
My Favorite Diamondbacks' Batter
I find Geraldo Perdomo, with his career-best .383 BA and .617 slugging rate, terribly underrated.
His outlook today is especially positive because he's slugging .742 against Gray's pitches from righties.
He is a great candidate to achieve at least an extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: Geraldo Perdomo to record 2+ total bases at +150 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Starts for Cincinnati?
Graham Ashcraft starts for the Reds.
Given his ERA, Ashcraft seems to be having an excellent season.
But he is really not all that different from the pitcher who often struggled mightily last season.
While he has improved in terms of his ability to prevent home runs, we will choose a prop bet that is not strictly home run-dependent.
He has benefitted from yielding a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His current BABIP is unsustainably low, which means that opposing batters will start to get more hits even if they are not home runs.
Currently, his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 3.82, which reflects how modest his performance has truly been on an individual level.
Indeed, he relies on three pitches, and they all look rather hittable.
His main problem is location: more so than other pitchers, heat maps show that his pitches often land in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
This locational tendency might seem odd given his high walk rate, but it is logical: he struggles to avoid walking batters, therefore he feels more pressure simply to throw strikes, and the easiest way to throw a strike is to place pitches down the middle.
San Diego's Xander Bogaerts
My favorite Padres' batter to do damage on Ashcraft is Xander Bogaerts.
Bogaerts matches up uniquely well against Ashcraft given his track record against Ashcraft's three pitches.
He has 13 hits in 27 at-bats with an .889 slugging rate against the cutter, slider, and sinker from righties.
Thus, let's count on him to manage an extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: Xander Bogaerts to record 2+ total bases at +105 with Bovada
Los Angeles Angels vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
- Cardinals' starter Steven Matz is struggling even against teams he matches up well against.
- Angels' Hunter Renfroe hits lefties very well in general.
- Renfroe hits Matz's pitches from lefties uniquely well.
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Southpaw Steven Matz starts for St. Louis today.
In his last start, he got to face a Giants team that struggles against left-handed pitching.
But even in that game, despite the favorable matchup, he yielded a 4.50 ERA.
His current season ERA of 6.23 speaks to the extent of his problems.
He is regularly getting crushed while his pitches usually yield soft contact with rare frequency.
The lack of quality of his pitches hurts him.
They are generally characterized by modest-at-best velocity and a low spin rate, meaning that batters have no problem keeping up with them or tracking their movement and location.
To give a specific example, he relies most often on his sinker, which he throws 52.7 percent of the time.
On top of its other shortcomings, heat maps show that he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Consequently, it yields a .490 slugging rate.
Opposing batters will regularly see pitches from Matz that they can hit.
My Favorite Angels' Batter
My top Angels' candidate to thrive today is Hunter Renfroe.
Renfroe is a good candidate against any left-handed pitcher.
He is slugging .600 against lefties in general.
But there is promising evidence that he matches up particularly well against the Matz.
Albeit in a limited data sample, he is slugging 1.833 against Matz's three main pitches from lefties.
Given this evidence, we should trust Renfroe to achieve at least an extra-base hit if not two singles.
Best Bet: Hunter Renfroe to record 2+ total bases at +105 with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
- Texas' starter Jon Gray is due to give up more hits.
- Arizona's Geraldo Perdomo is underrated by oddsmakers given the career-best season he's enjoying.
- Perdomo excels at hitting Gray's pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Texas?
Jon Gray starts for Texas today.
While his 3.91 ERA is far from being considered good, it is a flattering statistic for him.
His 3.91 ERA masks his 5.88 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which shows how poorly he has actually been performing on an individual level.
He has benefitted, in particular, from yielding a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
As time progresses and he continues to perform poorly on an individual level, his opposing BABIP is sure to rise, such that his ERA will come closer to matching his awful FIP.
Gray's pitching arsenal certainly looks like the arsenal of a pitcher who batters inflict a lot of damage on.
His favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws almost half the time.
Despite the extent to which he relies on this pitch, his fastball is very vulnerable.
While its velocity is decent, its spin rate is terribly poor -- to be exact, his spin rate ranks in the third percentile.
Plus, as heat maps show, he often leaves his fastball over the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Given its shortcomings, his fastball yields a .342 BA and .632 slugging rate.
So, because this is his favorite pitch, he lacks a pitch that he can really rely on.
My Favorite Diamondbacks' Batter
I find Geraldo Perdomo, with his career-best .383 BA and .617 slugging rate, terribly underrated.
His outlook today is especially positive because he's slugging .742 against Gray's pitches from righties.
He is a great candidate to achieve at least an extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: Geraldo Perdomo to record 2+ total bases at +150 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
- Cincinnati's starter Graham Ashcraft is likely to begin giving up more hits and runs.
- Ashcraft's locational tendencies and general struggles with pitch placement make him vulnerable.
- San Diego's Xander Bogaerts hits Ashcraft's pitches from righties well.
Who Starts for Cincinnati?
Graham Ashcraft starts for the Reds.
Given his ERA, Ashcraft seems to be having an excellent season.
But he is really not all that different from the pitcher who often struggled mightily last season.
While he has improved in terms of his ability to prevent home runs, we will choose a prop bet that is not strictly home run-dependent.
He has benefitted from yielding a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His current BABIP is unsustainably low, which means that opposing batters will start to get more hits even if they are not home runs.
Currently, his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 3.82, which reflects how modest his performance has truly been on an individual level.
Indeed, he relies on three pitches, and they all look rather hittable.
His main problem is location: more so than other pitchers, heat maps show that his pitches often land in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
This locational tendency might seem odd given his high walk rate, but it is logical: he struggles to avoid walking batters, therefore he feels more pressure simply to throw strikes, and the easiest way to throw a strike is to place pitches down the middle.
San Diego's Xander Bogaerts
My favorite Padres' batter to do damage on Ashcraft is Xander Bogaerts.
Bogaerts matches up uniquely well against Ashcraft given his track record against Ashcraft's three pitches.
He has 13 hits in 27 at-bats with an .889 slugging rate against the cutter, slider, and sinker from righties.
Thus, let's count on him to manage an extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: Xander Bogaerts to record 2+ total bases at +105 with Bovada
