MLB Best Player Props for April 3: Charlie Blackmon to Help Rockies Defuse Dodgers' Pitching
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Kansas City's Starter
Kansas City starts Kris Bubic tonight.
Bubic was notoriously vulnerable last year, as evident in his 5.58 ERA.
But Bubic's level of vulnerability is nothing new -- he has always been a poor pitcher in his career.
His vulnerability derives from the various flaws in his pitching.
One flaw is that he offers minimal variety in his repertoire.
He throws a fastball just over 50 percent of the time and has only two other pitches.
Given this lack of variety, it is easy for opponents to figure him out.
Consequently, last year, he yielded an 8.54 ERA when working through a lineup a third time in a given game.
Another flaw in Bubic's game is in the pitches themselves.
Heat maps illustrate his tendency to leave his pitches in the more middle parts of the plate, where batters are likelier to make efficacious contact.
Bubic's pitches are not good enough to make up for their poor location.
His fastball, for example, suffers low levels of spin and velocity, meaning batters don't have difficulty keeping up with it or tracking its movement.
Bonus Consideration
Besides the fact that Bubic is generally an awful pitcher, it is worth noting that he is at his worst at this time of year.
In March and April, his career ERA is 10.50 in 12 innings pitched.
Opponents are batting an absurd .320 and slugging .580 against him in these months.
This fact gives us all the more reason to look for hitters from the other team to invest in.
Matt Chapman's Outlook
My favorite Blue Jay hitter to invest in is Matt Chapman.
With his .533 BA and .800 slugging rate, Toronto's third baseman is sizzling.
He has at least two hits in every game but one, and he has two doubles in two different games.
Betting Approach
Given the above information, the best way to approach this game is with a total bases prop bet.
For the "over" on the total bases to hit, the player has to record a higher number of total bases than the posted over/under by getting hits.
A double is two bases. A triple is three bases, and so on.
Best Bet: Matt Chapman to Record 2+ Total Bases at +120 with Bovada
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
The "To Record a Hit" Prop
This prop bet is simple enough: you invest in a player who you think will get at least one hit.
But, in view of our goal to profit long-term, extreme caution must be exercised here.
A lot of the posted players are so chalky that it can be hard to achieve long-term profit because it doesn't take many times for something to go wrong when investing in very chalky players that you'll lose money over time.
The best approach is to find the underrated, less expensive players, who are flying under the radar yet worth investing in for good reasons.
Eric Haase's Outlook
Such a player is Detroit's catcher Eric Haase.
He is worth investing in today because he has a good track record against Houston's starter, Framber Valdez.
Haase is 3-for-7 lifetime against him.
We can count on him to build off his last game and get a hit.
Best Bet: Eric Haase to Record a Hit at -135 with Bovada
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Colorado's Hitting Duo
I really like what Rockies' designated hitter Charlie Blackmon and teammate first baseman C.J. Cron are doing.
Both have started the season off strongly: Blackmon is hitting .350 and slugging .600 while Cron is hitting .368 and slugging .947.
Impressively, they have achieved these stats outside the hitters-friendly confines of their home ballpark.
Blackmon and Cron vs. Urias
Both batters are likely to continue thriving given who is starting for the Dodgers, Julio Urias.
Lifetime, Blackmon is batting .308 and slugging .462 against him while Cron is hitting .292 and slugging .625 with Urias on the mound.
Betting Approach
I recommend taking your normal unit and splitting it on both batters, Blackmon and Cron, to record 2+ bases.
You can invest a full unit in each batter to record 2+ bases if you want, but just on principle I just like to avoid incurring too much financial exposure in a single game.
Best Bet: Charlie Blackmon to Record 2+ Total Bases at +170 with Bovada & CJ Cron to Record 2+ Total Bases at +150 with Bovada
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Kansas City's Starter
Kansas City starts Kris Bubic tonight.
Bubic was notoriously vulnerable last year, as evident in his 5.58 ERA.
But Bubic's level of vulnerability is nothing new -- he has always been a poor pitcher in his career.
His vulnerability derives from the various flaws in his pitching.
One flaw is that he offers minimal variety in his repertoire.
He throws a fastball just over 50 percent of the time and has only two other pitches.
Given this lack of variety, it is easy for opponents to figure him out.
Consequently, last year, he yielded an 8.54 ERA when working through a lineup a third time in a given game.
Another flaw in Bubic's game is in the pitches themselves.
Heat maps illustrate his tendency to leave his pitches in the more middle parts of the plate, where batters are likelier to make efficacious contact.
Bubic's pitches are not good enough to make up for their poor location.
His fastball, for example, suffers low levels of spin and velocity, meaning batters don't have difficulty keeping up with it or tracking its movement.
Bonus Consideration
Besides the fact that Bubic is generally an awful pitcher, it is worth noting that he is at his worst at this time of year.
In March and April, his career ERA is 10.50 in 12 innings pitched.
Opponents are batting an absurd .320 and slugging .580 against him in these months.
This fact gives us all the more reason to look for hitters from the other team to invest in.
Matt Chapman's Outlook
My favorite Blue Jay hitter to invest in is Matt Chapman.
With his .533 BA and .800 slugging rate, Toronto's third baseman is sizzling.
He has at least two hits in every game but one, and he has two doubles in two different games.
Betting Approach
Given the above information, the best way to approach this game is with a total bases prop bet.
For the "over" on the total bases to hit, the player has to record a higher number of total bases than the posted over/under by getting hits.
A double is two bases. A triple is three bases, and so on.
Best Bet: Matt Chapman to Record 2+ Total Bases at +120 with Bovada
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
The "To Record a Hit" Prop
This prop bet is simple enough: you invest in a player who you think will get at least one hit.
But, in view of our goal to profit long-term, extreme caution must be exercised here.
A lot of the posted players are so chalky that it can be hard to achieve long-term profit because it doesn't take many times for something to go wrong when investing in very chalky players that you'll lose money over time.
The best approach is to find the underrated, less expensive players, who are flying under the radar yet worth investing in for good reasons.
Eric Haase's Outlook
Such a player is Detroit's catcher Eric Haase.
He is worth investing in today because he has a good track record against Houston's starter, Framber Valdez.
Haase is 3-for-7 lifetime against him.
We can count on him to build off his last game and get a hit.
Best Bet: Eric Haase to Record a Hit at -135 with Bovada
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Colorado's Hitting Duo
I really like what Rockies' designated hitter Charlie Blackmon and teammate first baseman C.J. Cron are doing.
Both have started the season off strongly: Blackmon is hitting .350 and slugging .600 while Cron is hitting .368 and slugging .947.
Impressively, they have achieved these stats outside the hitters-friendly confines of their home ballpark.
Blackmon and Cron vs. Urias
Both batters are likely to continue thriving given who is starting for the Dodgers, Julio Urias.
Lifetime, Blackmon is batting .308 and slugging .462 against him while Cron is hitting .292 and slugging .625 with Urias on the mound.
Betting Approach
I recommend taking your normal unit and splitting it on both batters, Blackmon and Cron, to record 2+ bases.
You can invest a full unit in each batter to record 2+ bases if you want, but just on principle I just like to avoid incurring too much financial exposure in a single game.
Best Bet: Charlie Blackmon to Record 2+ Total Bases at +170 with Bovada & CJ Cron to Record 2+ Total Bases at +150 with Bovada
