Tuesday Picks

[divol]

Three picks already chosen and ready to launch:

Bobcats +5.5 - 6 units
Lakers -12 - 8 units
Pacers -2 - 9 units

Looking for a few totals as well. Over in Orlando sure looks great.

If I end up with a perfect day of zero wins, I will take a break till the end of the month. Will save my money and yours as well, unless you were smart enough to fade me the past week...

Write ups will follow soon.

Good luck everybody!!!

 

[divol]

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o> Charlotte +5.5 - 6 units stake</o>
<o></o>
I’m in a bad form right now and it is important you all be aware of that fact. Not a dreadful form I been in last December, but still doing poorly the past week. Today we got a huge card and I will give it a go. If I miss all the games, I’m taking a break till the end of the month.
Bobcats have never beaten <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City>. This is the only reason I’m taken them with handicap and not to win.
This line is a joke, but I’m not laughing. If this game ends up a 50 points win by <st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City>, I will still stay with this statement. Bookies simply hold the public for fools and that is simply offending. Dallas are tired, playing poorly, lose to Clips, win after OT the Knicks, lose to Chicago and even at home lose to Houston, Cleveland, Orlando and the Lakers. 3 – 7 is their record after winning <st1:State><st1lace>Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State>, injured Spurs and the Knicks in OT.
<st1:City><st1lace>Charlotte</st1lace></st1:City> are not that bad at home. Lost only twice by double digits (<st1:City><st1lace>Detroit</st1lace></st1:City> at home and <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> on a road), hold 3 – 4 home record, but 4 – 3 ATS and look pretty decent overall, including nice wins at home over Utan and NO.
Felton and Morrison in decent form and stepping up for the Jay Rich absence. Kidd isn’t the PG to stop Felton and Howard can find himself in deep trouble with Wallace on his back (just as Howard, but does everything a bit better).
Why such line? I have no idea. Bookies are just telling us: you like favorites, you like big names, take <st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City>. They know as well that this is not a real line for the game, but a reflection of public expectation and what is sad that many will take this dummies bet and what is even more sad, they can take the wrong pick and be right (I know it sound like a dumb sentence, but the pick can be right or wrong before the bet, not after it in my opinion).
<o> </o>
<o>Lakers -12 - 8 units stake</o>
<o></o>
Yeah, this is a homer pick of the day, but I guess we have a bit of homer in all of us. Lakers are the deepest team in the league. This is a team with one of three best players in the world. This is maybe the best team that league had since 2004 when Pistons won over Lakers. I don’t like Spurs, but I can respect their great teams that won two titles during this time, I give no respect to Miami that didn’t win the title, but was gifted the title by Dallas and I have respect to Boston, but they had great regular season and great Finals and I still say that Ariza in form and Bynum healthy, the title would have landed in La La land. Yes, I’m a Lakers fan if you were wondering and still don’t know that, but I think that if you check my history, I went more against the Lakers than with them and this is my second time this season I’m betting on the Lakers, since I believe they always get inflated lines, next to ridiculous.
Why now? First of all, the loss to Pistons is the game that impressed me the most by the Lakers. 10 points behind, less than a minute to play, they still believe they can win. This is not arrogance. This is hunger and believe in their ability. They won’t stop by other team, only injuries can succumb them.
Bulls will play without Hinrich and that leaves Rose as the only real PG. Against Lakers that can easily pressure the young Bulls 48 minutes, it can be a real disaster.
Bulls are in the beginning of a long trip through the West and usually this is a very painful trip. Lakers don’t need <st1:City><st1lace>Kobe</st1lace></st1:City> to be great to win them and take the line. They need only that their starters won’t lose to Bulls starters. I don’t see any reason why Lakers second unit shouldn’t win by 15 – 20 points at least Bulls second unit and I’m sure that their poor shooting performance won’t repeat itself.
Lakers are hungry, fresh, at home and want to get over their first season loss. Lakers all the way and should win by 20 – 30 points.
<o> </o>
<o>Pacers -2 - 9 units stake</o>
<o></o>
Hawks already with three straight losses and I think that the number will rise at least to four losses after tonight’s game. Hawks did a great work in the beginning of the season, but now they are starting to come back to their regular size. I think they will win Washington or Charlotte or maybe both in the their next two home games, but they will struggle to win this one. They started to a great start with a win over the Magic and that carried them all the way to 6 straight wins, but the buzzer beating shot of Pierce, that gave them their first loss of the season, beginning a new stretch, this time losing one. Pacers till now been playing great at home. Won easily over <st1lace><st1:City>Memphis</st1:City>, <st1:State>Oklahoma</st1:State></st1lace> and <st1:State><st1lace>New Jersey</st1lace></st1:State>. Won easily even over <st1:City><st1lace>Boston</st1lace></st1:City> and barely lost to <st1:City><st1lace>Phoenix</st1lace></st1:City> and should have won the Sixers, but lost their head and 25 points lead. Don’t see any reason for this to happen again.
Granger been playing badly the past two games and without Smith, they got only Williams to guard him and Bibby with Evans isn’t the type of defenders to force many turnovers and that is the key to win over the Pacers, as they have an average of around 20 turnovers in losing games and I really can’t understand how a team can lose so many balls.
If we add the history between the teams, where the home advantage dominated, we get the best bet of the day.
<o> </o>

 

[divol]

Perkins Under 25.5 rebounds + points - 10 units stake

This is just crazy offer at Stan James and I really think they should fire who ever was the genius that made such bet available.
Garnett is suspended for tonight’s game, but to offer Over 25.5 points + rebounds for Perkins??? Who died and made him Howard or Boozer?
His highest P+R this season was 22 (15 points and 7 rebounds) against the Rockets. His averages are 5.5 points and 7.3 rebounds. Ok, make it 17.5 P+R (just is too much as well I think) due to Garnett’s absence, but 25.5?
He averages almost 30 minutes per game, so you can’t say he will see much more minutes tonight without KG. Even if he plays 45 minutes and his teammates will search much more for him, how much will he make? 10 points and 9 rebounds? 12 points and 10 rebounds? How many see him do a double double of 14 points and 12 rebounds? I can’t.
He made those numbers before, but we are talking about 2 -3 occasions all season, so let’s just hope it won’t be the case tonight.

 

[MeasyMoney]

bol...lakers should handle them

 

[divol]

three Totals, haven't played them yet, Under in Staples Center and in Oakland and Over in Disneyland. Any thoughts on those Totals?

 

[MeasyMoney]

like the under in staples...i was thinking 110 to 85...somewhere around there...betting an under in a warriors game is tough but portland has a slower tempo. BOL in your plays

 

[divol]

Under 202 points in Staples Center - 6 units stake

I really don’t understand this total. Lakers allow their opponents to score 88 points at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace><st1laceName>Staples</st1laceName> <st1laceType>Center</st1laceType></st1lace> and that is what Bulls average on a road. I also think it’s a real number for tonight, since I doubt Bulls will go over 90 points mark. If I’m right, Lakers will need to score more than 110 points for this Over to come through. Bulls allowed their opponent to reach 100 points only three times out of 10 games this season and even though I doubt they can prevent Lakers from becoming the fourth team to reach 100 points, I do think they can stop them below 110 points mark. Lakers on the other hand, allowed the Pistons to shoot the ball extremely well and will be looking to cut back on the score for the opponent. 103 – 85 is the score that popped in my mind when I saw this game, but I can see it go up to 108 – 91, still an Under I believe is the right call here.

 

[EddieShore]

Portland/Golden State Over 202.5 -107
Toronto/Orlando Over 193 -105
Miami/Washington Over 192 -105
New York/Boston Over 205 -107

:cheers:

 

[divol]

Just before going to sleep, Over 192.5 between Magic and Raptors - 4 units stake.

 

[philjackson]

BOL divol!

 

[EddieShore]

Good call on Perkins and the Pacers and a good line for Orlando :tiphat:

 

[EddieShore]

Portland/Golden State Over 202.5 -107
Toronto/Orlando Over 193 -105 PUSH
Miami/Washington Over 192 -105 I am probably done betting overs with Washington until Arenas is back
New York/Boston Over 205 -107 opcorn:

:cheers:

I'm adding

Chicago @ Lakers Over 202.5 -105

For tomorrow I just took

Clippers @ Oklahoma City Under 188.5 -106

 

[divol]

Even at the end. If the game in Staples Center would have been the way I hoped, would have brought back all the losses this week.
Tonight one strong play, Wizards ML and +10 line (it will go down, so take it now while you can).