NBA Best Bets for March 18: The Cavaliers Will Lose Again
Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Hornets
Tuesday, March 18, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center
Charlotte's Key Absence
The Hornets will not have Miles Bridges available tonight. He has been ruled 'out' — his coach wants to rest him.
Keep in mind that the Hornets already lost their third-leading scorer, Brandon Miller, to a season-ending injury. They are now down their second- and third-leading scorers.
Their scoring talent is so scarce that even when Miller was healthy they struggled to score points when Bridges did not play.
For example, at the end of November, they failed to reach 99 points against the Magic, Heat, and Knicks in consecutive games when Bridges was absent.
Following those three games, Bridges' absence impeded them from reaching 105 points against Atlanta, Philadelphia, New York, and Cleveland. Miller scored at least 25 points in all four of those games.
Most recently, the Hornets scored all of 88 points against the Clippers largely because Bridges underperformed, scoring seven points (and because Miller was absent).
They don't only need Bridges to be on the court. They also need him to play well.
Without Bridges — or Miller — the Hornets cannot be expected to reach 105 points against anybody.
Best Bet: Hornets under 115.5 points at -115 with Bovada
Brooklyn Nets vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, March 18, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden
Boston's Key Trend
Unless the Celtics are coming off a loss or playing a team that already beat them, you have to fade them when they are favored by double digits.
Since January alone, the Celtics are 0-9 ATS in this situation.
Best Bet: Nets +13.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors
Tuesday, March 18, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Chase Center
Milwaukee's Perimeter Defense
The Bucks do a poor job of contesting three-point attempts.
They allow the tenth-most open three-point attempts and the seventh-most wide-open ones.
Moreover, they are bad at running teams off the three-point line. They rank 25th at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Why This Matters
Golden State primarily wants to shoot threes. The Warriors attempt the third-most threes per game.
Obviously, sharpshooter Steph Curry is their best player behind the arc.
But they also like to rely on fellow high-volume and efficient shooter Buddy Hield. Moses Moody and Quinten Post are also efficient from deep.
This group will thrive against Milwaukee given its poor perimeter defense.
Rematch
Tonight's affair is a rematch of a contest that took place on February 10 that Golden State won 125-111.
While Giannis didn't play, the game took place in Milwaukee, Damian Lillard scored 38 points, and both Taurean Prince and Kyle Kuzma likewise overperformed significantly relative to how much they normally score.
Of course, Giannis normally scores a lot, but one has to expect the players that stepped up in his absence to score a lot less.
I don't find it realistic to expect the Bucks to reach 115 points tonight, whereas the Warriors will use their shooting prowess to equal or exceed 125 points.
Golden State scored 125 points without getting much from Hield or Moody.
Best Bet: Warriors +3.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tuesday, March 18, 2025 at 10:30 p.m. ET at Intuit Dome
Clippers on Offense
On offense, the Clippers love attacking the midrange spaces, specifically 5-to-14 feet away from the basket.
Center Ivica Zubac is important here, as is James Harden and Kawhi Leonard.
Overall, the Clippers make the fifth-most field goals five-to-nine feet from the basket and the sixth-most 10-to-14 feet from the basket.
Cleveland's Defense
On defense, the Cavaliers prioritize protecting the basket.
This suits them well against most teams because most teams, following analytics, prioritize scoring at the basket.
However, the Clippers are exceptional in their focus on midrange-scoring.
Cleveland is therefore not prepared to stop an offense like that of the Clippers.
The Cavaliers allow the fifth-most field goals five-to-nine feet from the basket and the second-most field goals 10-14 feet from the basket.
Los Angeles' Ball-Screen Defense
The quality of a team's ball-screen defense is decisively important when facing the Cavaliers because, by a clear margin, they run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the highest frequency.
It is not a coincidence that, during its most recent 16-game win streak, the Cavaliers' two lowest point totals both came against a Brooklyn team that allows the fewest points against this play type — the Cavaliers scored 110 and 109 in two respective games against the Nets.
The Nets don't even have a good defense — they rank 24th in defensive rating — but they were still able to limit Cleveland's offense.
Los Angeles does have a good defense, ranking second in defensive rating.
On top of this, the Clippers excel at defending ball-screens. They allow the fourth-fewest PPP (points per possession) against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type. For comparison, the Clippers allow .1 PPP fewer than Brooklyn against this play type.
Takeaway
The Clippers are excellent home dogs tonight. Their offense will comfortably operate in its preferred midrange spaces, whereas its defense will limit Cleveland's ball-screen-oriented offense.
There is an assumption that the Cavaliers couldn't possibly lose again. They had losing streaks in January and November — why can't they have another one now when facing a very good Clippers team?
Let's be rational and take the home dog with its decisive matchup advantages.
Best Bet: Clippers +5 at -115 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Hornets
Tuesday, March 18, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center
Charlotte's Key Absence
The Hornets will not have Miles Bridges available tonight. He has been ruled 'out' — his coach wants to rest him.
Keep in mind that the Hornets already lost their third-leading scorer, Brandon Miller, to a season-ending injury. They are now down their second- and third-leading scorers.
Their scoring talent is so scarce that even when Miller was healthy they struggled to score points when Bridges did not play.
For example, at the end of November, they failed to reach 99 points against the Magic, Heat, and Knicks in consecutive games when Bridges was absent.
Following those three games, Bridges' absence impeded them from reaching 105 points against Atlanta, Philadelphia, New York, and Cleveland. Miller scored at least 25 points in all four of those games.
Most recently, the Hornets scored all of 88 points against the Clippers largely because Bridges underperformed, scoring seven points (and because Miller was absent).
They don't only need Bridges to be on the court. They also need him to play well.
Without Bridges — or Miller — the Hornets cannot be expected to reach 105 points against anybody.
Best Bet: Hornets under 115.5 points at -115 with Bovada
Brooklyn Nets vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, March 18, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden
Boston's Key Trend
Unless the Celtics are coming off a loss or playing a team that already beat them, you have to fade them when they are favored by double digits.
Since January alone, the Celtics are 0-9 ATS in this situation.
Best Bet: Nets +13.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors
Tuesday, March 18, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Chase Center
Milwaukee's Perimeter Defense
The Bucks do a poor job of contesting three-point attempts.
They allow the tenth-most open three-point attempts and the seventh-most wide-open ones.
Moreover, they are bad at running teams off the three-point line. They rank 25th at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Why This Matters
Golden State primarily wants to shoot threes. The Warriors attempt the third-most threes per game.
Obviously, sharpshooter Steph Curry is their best player behind the arc.
But they also like to rely on fellow high-volume and efficient shooter Buddy Hield. Moses Moody and Quinten Post are also efficient from deep.
This group will thrive against Milwaukee given its poor perimeter defense.
Rematch
Tonight's affair is a rematch of a contest that took place on February 10 that Golden State won 125-111.
While Giannis didn't play, the game took place in Milwaukee, Damian Lillard scored 38 points, and both Taurean Prince and Kyle Kuzma likewise overperformed significantly relative to how much they normally score.
Of course, Giannis normally scores a lot, but one has to expect the players that stepped up in his absence to score a lot less.
I don't find it realistic to expect the Bucks to reach 115 points tonight, whereas the Warriors will use their shooting prowess to equal or exceed 125 points.
Golden State scored 125 points without getting much from Hield or Moody.
Best Bet: Warriors +3.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tuesday, March 18, 2025 at 10:30 p.m. ET at Intuit Dome
Clippers on Offense
On offense, the Clippers love attacking the midrange spaces, specifically 5-to-14 feet away from the basket.
Center Ivica Zubac is important here, as is James Harden and Kawhi Leonard.
Overall, the Clippers make the fifth-most field goals five-to-nine feet from the basket and the sixth-most 10-to-14 feet from the basket.
Cleveland's Defense
On defense, the Cavaliers prioritize protecting the basket.
This suits them well against most teams because most teams, following analytics, prioritize scoring at the basket.
However, the Clippers are exceptional in their focus on midrange-scoring.
Cleveland is therefore not prepared to stop an offense like that of the Clippers.
The Cavaliers allow the fifth-most field goals five-to-nine feet from the basket and the second-most field goals 10-14 feet from the basket.
Los Angeles' Ball-Screen Defense
The quality of a team's ball-screen defense is decisively important when facing the Cavaliers because, by a clear margin, they run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the highest frequency.
It is not a coincidence that, during its most recent 16-game win streak, the Cavaliers' two lowest point totals both came against a Brooklyn team that allows the fewest points against this play type — the Cavaliers scored 110 and 109 in two respective games against the Nets.
The Nets don't even have a good defense — they rank 24th in defensive rating — but they were still able to limit Cleveland's offense.
Los Angeles does have a good defense, ranking second in defensive rating.
On top of this, the Clippers excel at defending ball-screens. They allow the fourth-fewest PPP (points per possession) against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type. For comparison, the Clippers allow .1 PPP fewer than Brooklyn against this play type.
Takeaway
The Clippers are excellent home dogs tonight. Their offense will comfortably operate in its preferred midrange spaces, whereas its defense will limit Cleveland's ball-screen-oriented offense.
There is an assumption that the Cavaliers couldn't possibly lose again. They had losing streaks in January and November — why can't they have another one now when facing a very good Clippers team?
Let's be rational and take the home dog with its decisive matchup advantages.
Best Bet: Clippers +5 at -115 with BetOnline
