NBA Best Bets for January 28: The Greek Freak Seeks Revenge
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Tuesday, January 28, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center & Milwaukee Bucks vs. Portland Trail Blazers Tuesday, January 28, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center
Philadelphia's Key Injuries
The 76ers continue to miss star center Joel Embiid, but they also miss much more.
Forward Paul George has been ruled "out" with a finger injury.
George's absence is important because he is Philadelphia's third-leading scorer.
With Embiid out, the 76ers miss two of their top three scorers.
They rely heavily on point guard Tyrese Maxey, who only has so much endurance.
His backup, Jared McCain, did a great job of providing relief for Maxey. But now McCain is out for the season. McCain is Philadelphia's fourth-leading scorer.
Outlook for Philadelphia's Ball-Screen Attack
Without being able to rely on Embiid's post-up prowess, the 76ers have greater need for Maxey's ball-screen game to be effective.
Overall, the 76ers run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the tenth-highest frequency.
Their offense will struggle tonight because they face a Lakers team that does the second-best job of defending against this play type. The Lakers allow the second-lowest PPP (points per possession) average against it.
Los Angeles' High-Caliber Scorers
Without seven-footer Embiid's monstrous presence in the paint, Philadelphia's interior defense is emaciated.
The 76ers are still strong on defense along the perimeter. While they beat a losing Chicago team that relies heavily on making threes, the Lakers are not a good matchup for them, because they attempt the third-fewest threes.
Philadelphia's perimeter defense quality will thus go unnoticed tonight.
Instead, spearheaded by stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, Los Angeles will exploit Embiid's absence in the paint.
Explaining Philadelphia's Struggles
With so few scoring weapons and with a thinned interior defense, the 76ers are struggling to win games.
In January, they have four wins in 13 games.
Those wins came against losing teams and against a slumping Cleveland crew.
They will be no match for a strong Lakers group, with its matchup advantages, that carries a four-game win streak into tonight's matchup.
The Lakers' win streak is legitimate. On January 23, for example, Los Angeles handed defending champion Boston its worst loss of the season.
Expect them to continue winning tonight.
Milwaukee's Strong Form
Let's parlay one hot team with another.
Like the Lakers, Milwaukee is playing great basketball. The Bucks enter tonight's game having won six of their last seven games.
Their one loss came at a strong Clippers team.
Each of their wins came by 14 or more points.
For example, they victimized both Miami and Orlando by 29 points.
While they go back on the road tonight, the Trail Blazers are nothing like the Clippers. Portland is a losing team that has won one home game, against lowly Chicago, in January.
In Portland, Milwaukee will bring with it an offense that scored 122 or more points in all six of its last wins, including against an Orlando defense that ranks 23 spots higher than Portland's 26th-ranked defense.
Milwaukee's Rim Protection
Whereas the Bucks will thrive on offense, Portland will struggle to score.
On offense, the Trail Blazers are one of the worst three-point shooting teams.
Instead of shooting threes, they primarily want to attack the basket. They attempt the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Their outlook is poor against a Milwaukee defense that features high-caliber rim protection, spearheaded as it is by two-time All-NBA Defensive Team selection Brook Lopez at center and by six-time All-NBA Defensive Team selection Giannis.
Led by these two top-notch defenders, the Bucks allow the sixth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
My Favorite Prop Bet
Giannis seems to take revenge situations seriously.
This is a revenge situation because Milwaukee lost to Portland in their last meeting, which is bad news for the Trail Blazers as they try to contain the Bucks' superstar scorer.
When the Bucks with Giannis lost to Chicago on October 25, Giannis scored 41 points in the rematch, which the Bucks won.
On October 27, Giannis scored 22 points in a loss to the Nets. In the next rematch, he scored 34 points in a Milwaukee win.
While he's had mixed results against strong opponents, he's consistently thrived with stronger performances in revenge-situation rematches against weaker teams, with the other examples being Atlanta and Charlotte.
Therefore, expect a Portland defense that was just eviscerated by Oklahoma City's superstar to suffer the same fate against Milwaukee's.
Best Bet: Parlay Lakers ML (-175) & Bucks ML (-235) at +124 with BetOnline & Giannis over 31.5 points at -120 with Bovada
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Tuesday, January 28, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center & Milwaukee Bucks vs. Portland Trail Blazers Tuesday, January 28, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center
Philadelphia's Key Injuries
The 76ers continue to miss star center Joel Embiid, but they also miss much more.
Forward Paul George has been ruled "out" with a finger injury.
George's absence is important because he is Philadelphia's third-leading scorer.
With Embiid out, the 76ers miss two of their top three scorers.
They rely heavily on point guard Tyrese Maxey, who only has so much endurance.
His backup, Jared McCain, did a great job of providing relief for Maxey. But now McCain is out for the season. McCain is Philadelphia's fourth-leading scorer.
Outlook for Philadelphia's Ball-Screen Attack
Without being able to rely on Embiid's post-up prowess, the 76ers have greater need for Maxey's ball-screen game to be effective.
Overall, the 76ers run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the tenth-highest frequency.
Their offense will struggle tonight because they face a Lakers team that does the second-best job of defending against this play type. The Lakers allow the second-lowest PPP (points per possession) average against it.
Los Angeles' High-Caliber Scorers
Without seven-footer Embiid's monstrous presence in the paint, Philadelphia's interior defense is emaciated.
The 76ers are still strong on defense along the perimeter. While they beat a losing Chicago team that relies heavily on making threes, the Lakers are not a good matchup for them, because they attempt the third-fewest threes.
Philadelphia's perimeter defense quality will thus go unnoticed tonight.
Instead, spearheaded by stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, Los Angeles will exploit Embiid's absence in the paint.
Explaining Philadelphia's Struggles
With so few scoring weapons and with a thinned interior defense, the 76ers are struggling to win games.
In January, they have four wins in 13 games.
Those wins came against losing teams and against a slumping Cleveland crew.
They will be no match for a strong Lakers group, with its matchup advantages, that carries a four-game win streak into tonight's matchup.
The Lakers' win streak is legitimate. On January 23, for example, Los Angeles handed defending champion Boston its worst loss of the season.
Expect them to continue winning tonight.
Milwaukee's Strong Form
Let's parlay one hot team with another.
Like the Lakers, Milwaukee is playing great basketball. The Bucks enter tonight's game having won six of their last seven games.
Their one loss came at a strong Clippers team.
Each of their wins came by 14 or more points.
For example, they victimized both Miami and Orlando by 29 points.
While they go back on the road tonight, the Trail Blazers are nothing like the Clippers. Portland is a losing team that has won one home game, against lowly Chicago, in January.
In Portland, Milwaukee will bring with it an offense that scored 122 or more points in all six of its last wins, including against an Orlando defense that ranks 23 spots higher than Portland's 26th-ranked defense.
Milwaukee's Rim Protection
Whereas the Bucks will thrive on offense, Portland will struggle to score.
On offense, the Trail Blazers are one of the worst three-point shooting teams.
Instead of shooting threes, they primarily want to attack the basket. They attempt the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Their outlook is poor against a Milwaukee defense that features high-caliber rim protection, spearheaded as it is by two-time All-NBA Defensive Team selection Brook Lopez at center and by six-time All-NBA Defensive Team selection Giannis.
Led by these two top-notch defenders, the Bucks allow the sixth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
My Favorite Prop Bet
Giannis seems to take revenge situations seriously.
This is a revenge situation because Milwaukee lost to Portland in their last meeting, which is bad news for the Trail Blazers as they try to contain the Bucks' superstar scorer.
When the Bucks with Giannis lost to Chicago on October 25, Giannis scored 41 points in the rematch, which the Bucks won.
On October 27, Giannis scored 22 points in a loss to the Nets. In the next rematch, he scored 34 points in a Milwaukee win.
While he's had mixed results against strong opponents, he's consistently thrived with stronger performances in revenge-situation rematches against weaker teams, with the other examples being Atlanta and Charlotte.
Therefore, expect a Portland defense that was just eviscerated by Oklahoma City's superstar to suffer the same fate against Milwaukee's.
Best Bet: Parlay Lakers ML (-175) & Bucks ML (-235) at +124 with BetOnline & Giannis over 31.5 points at -120 with Bovada
