NBA Best Bets for January 21: Philadelphia Is Helpless Without Joel Embiid
Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors
Tuesday, January 21, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena
Orlando's Ongoing Struggle
When you think of Orlando, you think of a team that repeatedly struggles to reach 100 points and that has a good defense. The inclination is, therefore, to play the "under" for their games.
But we cannot play the "under" in Magic games right now.
In its last three games, Orlando has allowed 122 points to Milwaukee, 121 to Boston, and 113 to Denver.
Clearly, its defense is playing terribly.
Explanation
If Orlando's opponents are simply going wild from behind the arc, then maybe we can't expect its defensive struggles to continue.
But there is a reason why Orlando's defense is playing worse.
Starting center Goga Bitadze is injured. He has been ruled out for tonight's game with a concussion.
Bitadze is a valued defender, so his absence hurts Orlando's entire defense.
His absence coincides with Orlando's three-game struggle.
Without Bitadze, in these three games, the Magic are allowing opponents to convert a very startling 70.5 percent of their field goals within five feet of the basket.
As long as Bitadze is out, opponents will thrive at the basket.
Why This Matters
Orlando's newfound and ongoing inability, without Bitadze, to protect the basket matters because Toronto's offense is uniquely suited to exploit it.
The Raptors love to attack the basket. They attempt the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Their inside attack is spearheaded by scorers like RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, and Jakob Poeltl.
Orlando's Deficient Offense
The Magic miss their second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-leading scorers.
They are also a terrible three-point shooting team.
Predictably, they have failed to reach 105 points in 11 of their last 13 games.
One of those exceptions actually came in Toronto but only because they had a rare great performance from behind the arc.
But make no mistake: they rank last, by a clear margin, with a 30.4-percent three-point conversion rate. They shot 43.2 percent from behind the arc in that one game in Toronto and still only managed 106 points.
Takeaway
It's hard to like a favored team when it can't be counted on to reach 100 points.
Orlando's defense is also struggling right now without its starting center, so the Magic will concede well over 100 points.
Best Bet: Raptors +3 at -115 with BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets
Tuesday, January 21, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Ball Arena
Philadelphia's Losing Streak
Philadelphia has now lost six in a row.
Star center Joel Embiid was absent in every game. The 76ers clearly miss their second-leading scorer.
They also miss, among others, key backup point guard Jared McCain, who was the team's fourth-leading scorer.
Philadelphia's Deficient Offense
Embiid helps make Philadelphia's ball-screen-oriented offense function.
Without him, defenses are able to lock in on Tyrese Maxey. They can concentrate on stopping him because the 76ers lack other effective scorers.
Hindered by head coach Nick Nurse's lack of ingenuity, this is a rather predictable and unexciting offense that tends to devolve into ball-screens or iso plays both centering on Maxey.
Maxey's endurance is not unlimited, though, which helps explain why Philadelphia really misses his backup McCain.
Denver's Ball-Screen Defense
To be exact, Philadelphia runs the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the ninth-highest frequency.
Its best hope, for reaching 110 points in a game, is always going to be a superhuman performance from Maxey.
But Maxey is a central component of Philly's ball-screen game, and Denver is well-built to stop it.
The Nuggets allow the third-lowest PPP (points per possession) average against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
Denver's Inside Attack
Without Embiid, an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Philadelphia misses its best rim protector. Embiid is a seven-foot monster whose presence in the paint is immense.
Easier to attack inside, Philadelphia's defense will be especially vulnerable to an offense like Denver's because the Nuggets make the most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Led by star center Nikola Jokic, they make at least two more field goals per game in this space than any other team.
Takeaway
Denver will live at Philadelphia's basket, which Embiid won't be there to protect.
To make matters worse for Philly, the Nuggets are coming off a terrible three-point shooting performance — in their last game, a 13-point win in Orlando. Guys like normally efficient shooter Jamal Murray are primed to bounce back from deep.
Overall, Denver is the fourth-most efficient team from behind the arc, and it converts three-point attempts at a vastly higher rate at home than on the road.
On offense, the 76ers miss significant scoring talent and are too easy to stop with their reliance on a single guard.
Denver's solid ability to defend ball-screens creates an especially positive outlook for its defense tonight.
I see the Nuggets in the low-to-mid 120s tonight, whereas Philadelphia will score around 100 or 101 points.
Best Bet: Nuggets -13.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors
Tuesday, January 21, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena
Orlando's Ongoing Struggle
When you think of Orlando, you think of a team that repeatedly struggles to reach 100 points and that has a good defense. The inclination is, therefore, to play the "under" for their games.
But we cannot play the "under" in Magic games right now.
In its last three games, Orlando has allowed 122 points to Milwaukee, 121 to Boston, and 113 to Denver.
Clearly, its defense is playing terribly.
Explanation
If Orlando's opponents are simply going wild from behind the arc, then maybe we can't expect its defensive struggles to continue.
But there is a reason why Orlando's defense is playing worse.
Starting center Goga Bitadze is injured. He has been ruled out for tonight's game with a concussion.
Bitadze is a valued defender, so his absence hurts Orlando's entire defense.
His absence coincides with Orlando's three-game struggle.
Without Bitadze, in these three games, the Magic are allowing opponents to convert a very startling 70.5 percent of their field goals within five feet of the basket.
As long as Bitadze is out, opponents will thrive at the basket.
Why This Matters
Orlando's newfound and ongoing inability, without Bitadze, to protect the basket matters because Toronto's offense is uniquely suited to exploit it.
The Raptors love to attack the basket. They attempt the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Their inside attack is spearheaded by scorers like RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, and Jakob Poeltl.
Orlando's Deficient Offense
The Magic miss their second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-leading scorers.
They are also a terrible three-point shooting team.
Predictably, they have failed to reach 105 points in 11 of their last 13 games.
One of those exceptions actually came in Toronto but only because they had a rare great performance from behind the arc.
But make no mistake: they rank last, by a clear margin, with a 30.4-percent three-point conversion rate. They shot 43.2 percent from behind the arc in that one game in Toronto and still only managed 106 points.
Takeaway
It's hard to like a favored team when it can't be counted on to reach 100 points.
Orlando's defense is also struggling right now without its starting center, so the Magic will concede well over 100 points.
Best Bet: Raptors +3 at -115 with BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets
Tuesday, January 21, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Ball Arena
Philadelphia's Losing Streak
Philadelphia has now lost six in a row.
Star center Joel Embiid was absent in every game. The 76ers clearly miss their second-leading scorer.
They also miss, among others, key backup point guard Jared McCain, who was the team's fourth-leading scorer.
Philadelphia's Deficient Offense
Embiid helps make Philadelphia's ball-screen-oriented offense function.
Without him, defenses are able to lock in on Tyrese Maxey. They can concentrate on stopping him because the 76ers lack other effective scorers.
Hindered by head coach Nick Nurse's lack of ingenuity, this is a rather predictable and unexciting offense that tends to devolve into ball-screens or iso plays both centering on Maxey.
Maxey's endurance is not unlimited, though, which helps explain why Philadelphia really misses his backup McCain.
Denver's Ball-Screen Defense
To be exact, Philadelphia runs the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the ninth-highest frequency.
Its best hope, for reaching 110 points in a game, is always going to be a superhuman performance from Maxey.
But Maxey is a central component of Philly's ball-screen game, and Denver is well-built to stop it.
The Nuggets allow the third-lowest PPP (points per possession) average against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
Denver's Inside Attack
Without Embiid, an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Philadelphia misses its best rim protector. Embiid is a seven-foot monster whose presence in the paint is immense.
Easier to attack inside, Philadelphia's defense will be especially vulnerable to an offense like Denver's because the Nuggets make the most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Led by star center Nikola Jokic, they make at least two more field goals per game in this space than any other team.
Takeaway
Denver will live at Philadelphia's basket, which Embiid won't be there to protect.
To make matters worse for Philly, the Nuggets are coming off a terrible three-point shooting performance — in their last game, a 13-point win in Orlando. Guys like normally efficient shooter Jamal Murray are primed to bounce back from deep.
Overall, Denver is the fourth-most efficient team from behind the arc, and it converts three-point attempts at a vastly higher rate at home than on the road.
On offense, the 76ers miss significant scoring talent and are too easy to stop with their reliance on a single guard.
Denver's solid ability to defend ball-screens creates an especially positive outlook for its defense tonight.
I see the Nuggets in the low-to-mid 120s tonight, whereas Philadelphia will score around 100 or 101 points.
Best Bet: Nuggets -13.5 at -110 with BetOnline
