NBA Cup Best Bets for December 10: Defense Reigns in Oklahoma City
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, December 10, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
The Spread
As of this morning, Milwaukee is favored by 7.5 points.
I just don't get why the Bucks are favored so strongly.
This year, the Bucks have beaten the following teams by over seven points: a Philadelphia team that missed stars Joel Embiid and Paul George, Utah, Toronto, Chicago, Indiana, Washington, and Detroit.
All of those teams have losing records.
None of them have a record better than 10-15.
Moreover, none of those teams compares with Orlando. The Magic are 17-9.
Orlando's Excellent Defense
One great respect in which Orlando is superior to Milwaukee is its defense.
The Magic defense ranks eleven spots higher in defensive rating than Milwaukee's.
It is uniquely tough to score on at the basket.
Orlando ranks fourth at limiting field goals within five feet of the basket and sixth at limiting field goal efficiency in this space.
Moreover, Orlando's perimeter defense is stout.
The Magic rank third at limiting three-pointers made.
They are the best team at running teams off the three-point line, as evident in the fact that they allow the fewest three-point attempts, they are very good at limiting open three-point attempts, and they are the best at limiting wide-open three-point attempts.
Can Orlando Contain Milwaukee's Stars?
Milwaukee has faced one other top-five defense. The Bucks mustered all of 101 points against Houston.
They also faced the seventh-best defense, Memphis. They scored 99 points against the Grizzlies.
Orlando's third-ranked defense, for these reasons alone, enjoys a solid outlook tonight.
But the Magic have also created promise by limiting star players.
Most recently, they limited Suns star Devin Booker to a field goal percentage below his season average.
They have a well-coordinated team defense that can be relied upon tonight to hold Milwaukee to around 100 points.
The Bucks rely heavily on their stars, Damian Lillard and Giannis.
Lillard especially has struggled against top defenses and, as evident in what the Magic did to Booker, they have the ability to limit star guards.
Orlando's excellent rim protection, led by Goga Bitadze, will help limit Giannis.
Outlook for Orlando's Offense
Milwaukee has allowed over 110 points in each of its last three games, which aligns with its season average of 112.4 points per game.
The Bucks have struggled to limit opposing scoring even when opponents don't shoot well from behind the arc.
They have struggled especially to contain opposing guards, with Brooklyn's Dennis Schroder providing one recent example.
Orlando's offense is led by guard Jalen Suggs, who enters this game with two straight 20-point outputs. He'll help Orlando build off its 115-110 win over Phoenix.
Takeaway
The spread does not make sense to me because Orlando is not remotely like the teams that Milwaukee has won by eight or more points against.
Orlando's excellent defense will limit Milwaukee's star-dependent offense while the Magic have especially the guard power on offense to take advantage of Milwaukee's defensive vulnerabilities.
Best Bet: Magic +7.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tuesday, December 10, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
The First Meeting
Folks are keen to invest in Dallas because Dallas won its last game in Oklahoma City.
The Mavericks also won that game without Luka Doncic.
But the most important absence in that game was that of Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein.
Hartenstein is arguably one of the best, if not the best, defensive rebounders.
His elite defensive rating also attests to the quality of protection that he offers in the paint.
Defensive rebounding and paint defense are exactly what the Thunder missed when Dallas barely won thanks to the scoring of its big men, which relied heavily on its team-wide dominance in second-chance scoring.
In the rematch, OKC will have Hartenstein healthy. He'll use his prowess in defensive rebounding to limit Dallas's second-chance scoring and to limit the scoring of Dallas' bigs.
OKC's Perimeter Defense
In the first game, the Mavericks overachieved from behind the arc.
They shot well above their season-long average. Their three-point percentage was also unrepeatably high because they achieved it against a Thunder defense that ranks second-best in limiting opposing three-point efficiency.
OKC is well-stocked with perimeter defenders, including Luguentz Dort and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who have received praise for their stout defense in the form of All-NBA Defensive Team votes.
The Total
The total for this game is too high considering the quality of each team's defense.
OKC's top defense — it ranks number one in defensive rating — will, with high-caliber rebounder and interior defender Hartenstein's help and that of its perimeter defenders, drastically reduce
Dallas' scoring output relative to their first meeting.
But the Mavericks are also about as good at defending the perimeter.
Thunder players who have been shooting well on the season, like Dort and Aaron Wiggins, have been struggling in December.
Overall, the Thunder lack efficient three-point shooting. They also miss the spacing that injured center Chet Holmgren could have provided.
But they'll also struggle to score inside against Dallas' peel-switching defense that is devoted to walling off the paint and making it hard for teams to reach the basket.
Best Bet: Under 231 at -115 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, December 10, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
The Spread
As of this morning, Milwaukee is favored by 7.5 points.
I just don't get why the Bucks are favored so strongly.
This year, the Bucks have beaten the following teams by over seven points: a Philadelphia team that missed stars Joel Embiid and Paul George, Utah, Toronto, Chicago, Indiana, Washington, and Detroit.
All of those teams have losing records.
None of them have a record better than 10-15.
Moreover, none of those teams compares with Orlando. The Magic are 17-9.
Orlando's Excellent Defense
One great respect in which Orlando is superior to Milwaukee is its defense.
The Magic defense ranks eleven spots higher in defensive rating than Milwaukee's.
It is uniquely tough to score on at the basket.
Orlando ranks fourth at limiting field goals within five feet of the basket and sixth at limiting field goal efficiency in this space.
Moreover, Orlando's perimeter defense is stout.
The Magic rank third at limiting three-pointers made.
They are the best team at running teams off the three-point line, as evident in the fact that they allow the fewest three-point attempts, they are very good at limiting open three-point attempts, and they are the best at limiting wide-open three-point attempts.
Can Orlando Contain Milwaukee's Stars?
Milwaukee has faced one other top-five defense. The Bucks mustered all of 101 points against Houston.
They also faced the seventh-best defense, Memphis. They scored 99 points against the Grizzlies.
Orlando's third-ranked defense, for these reasons alone, enjoys a solid outlook tonight.
But the Magic have also created promise by limiting star players.
Most recently, they limited Suns star Devin Booker to a field goal percentage below his season average.
They have a well-coordinated team defense that can be relied upon tonight to hold Milwaukee to around 100 points.
The Bucks rely heavily on their stars, Damian Lillard and Giannis.
Lillard especially has struggled against top defenses and, as evident in what the Magic did to Booker, they have the ability to limit star guards.
Orlando's excellent rim protection, led by Goga Bitadze, will help limit Giannis.
Outlook for Orlando's Offense
Milwaukee has allowed over 110 points in each of its last three games, which aligns with its season average of 112.4 points per game.
The Bucks have struggled to limit opposing scoring even when opponents don't shoot well from behind the arc.
They have struggled especially to contain opposing guards, with Brooklyn's Dennis Schroder providing one recent example.
Orlando's offense is led by guard Jalen Suggs, who enters this game with two straight 20-point outputs. He'll help Orlando build off its 115-110 win over Phoenix.
Takeaway
The spread does not make sense to me because Orlando is not remotely like the teams that Milwaukee has won by eight or more points against.
Orlando's excellent defense will limit Milwaukee's star-dependent offense while the Magic have especially the guard power on offense to take advantage of Milwaukee's defensive vulnerabilities.
Best Bet: Magic +7.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tuesday, December 10, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
The First Meeting
Folks are keen to invest in Dallas because Dallas won its last game in Oklahoma City.
The Mavericks also won that game without Luka Doncic.
But the most important absence in that game was that of Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein.
Hartenstein is arguably one of the best, if not the best, defensive rebounders.
His elite defensive rating also attests to the quality of protection that he offers in the paint.
Defensive rebounding and paint defense are exactly what the Thunder missed when Dallas barely won thanks to the scoring of its big men, which relied heavily on its team-wide dominance in second-chance scoring.
In the rematch, OKC will have Hartenstein healthy. He'll use his prowess in defensive rebounding to limit Dallas's second-chance scoring and to limit the scoring of Dallas' bigs.
OKC's Perimeter Defense
In the first game, the Mavericks overachieved from behind the arc.
They shot well above their season-long average. Their three-point percentage was also unrepeatably high because they achieved it against a Thunder defense that ranks second-best in limiting opposing three-point efficiency.
OKC is well-stocked with perimeter defenders, including Luguentz Dort and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who have received praise for their stout defense in the form of All-NBA Defensive Team votes.
The Total
The total for this game is too high considering the quality of each team's defense.
OKC's top defense — it ranks number one in defensive rating — will, with high-caliber rebounder and interior defender Hartenstein's help and that of its perimeter defenders, drastically reduce
Dallas' scoring output relative to their first meeting.
But the Mavericks are also about as good at defending the perimeter.
Thunder players who have been shooting well on the season, like Dort and Aaron Wiggins, have been struggling in December.
Overall, the Thunder lack efficient three-point shooting. They also miss the spacing that injured center Chet Holmgren could have provided.
But they'll also struggle to score inside against Dallas' peel-switching defense that is devoted to walling off the paint and making it hard for teams to reach the basket.
Best Bet: Under 231 at -115 with BetOnline
