NBA Best Bets for November 12: Milwaukee Misses Dame Tonight
Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, November 12, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden
Atlanta's Awful Defense
There is no question here that Boston will score a lot of points.
As measured by defensive rating, Atlanta has one of the NBA's worst defenses.
In their last two games, for example, the Hawks have allowed 125 points to Chicago and 122 points to Detroit.
Those are by no means elite offenses, and yet they each managed to amass a high scoring total against the Hawks' defense.
Atlanta's Perimeter Defense
In terms of how Atlanta's defense matches up with Boston, the Hawks' perimeter defense is particularly important to assess.
This is because Boston loves to shoot threes: the Celtics attempt, by far, the most three-pointers per game.
They average 51.3 three-point attempts per game, which is almost six more than any other team.
Atlanta has a uniquely vulnerable perimeter defense, one that will be further hurt by the absence of De'Andre Hunter, who with his length and strong footwork has always been known for his great defense.
The Hawks allow the fourth-most wide-open three-point attempts per game.
Moreover, they allow the most three-point attempts per game.
These statistics indicate that they do a terrible job of running shooters off the three-point line and of contesting three-point attempts.
Boston's Shooters
Boston's players will easily procure favorable three-point shot attempts against Atlanta's porous defense.
Look out, among others, for Derrick White and Payton Pritchard.
Both players convert over 40 percent of their three-point attempts while attempting three-pointers at a high rate.
It is an extremely good sign for Boston's offense when the outlook for lower-profile scorers like White and Pritchard is so positive.
Boston can always lean on the likes of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, both of whom have been selected to numerous All-Star teams, to score a lot of points.
Tonight, Tatum is a game-time decision with his ankle injury, but Boston won't need him to score a lot of points tonight.
The Celtics were able to score over 120 points against Atlanta when Brown was hurt. Evidently, they have plenty of scoring depth.
But I also have no idea why Tatum would miss tonight's game, because he was able to play through his injury and thrive in his team's last game.
Atlanta's Offense
Atlanta will score more than enough points to help the game go "over" the total.
Its preference on offense, scoring at the basket, is a key reason why.
The Hawks attempt the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Clint Capela, Dyson Daniels and multiple other Hawk players are efficient scorers at the basket.
The plurality of efficient Hawks scorers should assuage any concern that Atlanta's absences tonight might pose to its ability to score enough points tonight — a concern that is further assuaged by the aforementioned fact that one of those absent players is Hunter.
Boston's Vulnerable Rim Protection
The Hawks can thrive at the basket as long as Kristaps Porzingis remains injured for Boston.
He is a very effective shot-blocker whose ability to contest shots is something that the Celtics continue to miss.
Largely due to his absence, the Celtics allow the eighth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Takeaway
Both offenses will be very comfortable in this game.
Atlanta's defense repeatedly allows teams to blow past 120 points.
Boston's well-stocked offense will feature strong shooting from lesser-known guys who will complement the regular scoring prowess of its best players.
The Hawks won't need to score many points in order to help the game go "over," but it does have many scorers who are reliably efficient at the basket and can be counted on against a defense that really misses Porzingis.
Best Bet: Over 225 at -110 with BetOnline
Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, November 12, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
Milwaukee Misses Damian Lillard
Milwaukee's terrible season is going to get more terrible.
The regularly losing Bucks will miss Damian Lillard. He is dealing with a concussion and has accordingly been ruled out for tonight's game.
Lillard's significance to Milwaukee's offense is tremendous.
With 26 points per game, he is the team's second-leading scorer.
Besides Giannis, no other Bucks player averages half as many points per game as Lillard does.
Milwaukee needs Lillard's versatility. Giannis is only good for attacking the basket, whereas Lillard can reliably score both inside and outside the arc.
Games Without Lillard's Dominance
Milwaukee's offense has, as one must expect, struggled in the games in which Lillard failed to reach 20 points.
In those three games, the Bucks scored 99 points against Memphis, 94 points against the Knicks, and 107 points against Boston — the Bucks achieved this high of a point total against Boston because they shot unusually well from deep.
Tonight, they won't get a single point from Lillard.
Toronto's Rim-Attacking Offense
The Raptors won't need many points in order to cover the spread.
But their offense does have a key matchup advantage.
This advantage stems from their determination to score at the rim: they make the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Milwaukee's worst defensive performances have come against teams that attempt a relatively high number of shots at the rim. Such teams include Chicago, Memphis, and Cleveland.
The Bucks have a good rim protector but not much else.
They don't defend in transition well.
Their inability to force turnovers places too high a burden on their aging defense to execute.
Takeaway
Milwaukee's offense takes a major hit with Lillard's absence.
Its defense won't be good enough against Toronto's group of rim-attackers.
Best Bet: Raptors +7 at -115 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, November 12, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden
Atlanta's Awful Defense
There is no question here that Boston will score a lot of points.
As measured by defensive rating, Atlanta has one of the NBA's worst defenses.
In their last two games, for example, the Hawks have allowed 125 points to Chicago and 122 points to Detroit.
Those are by no means elite offenses, and yet they each managed to amass a high scoring total against the Hawks' defense.
Atlanta's Perimeter Defense
In terms of how Atlanta's defense matches up with Boston, the Hawks' perimeter defense is particularly important to assess.
This is because Boston loves to shoot threes: the Celtics attempt, by far, the most three-pointers per game.
They average 51.3 three-point attempts per game, which is almost six more than any other team.
Atlanta has a uniquely vulnerable perimeter defense, one that will be further hurt by the absence of De'Andre Hunter, who with his length and strong footwork has always been known for his great defense.
The Hawks allow the fourth-most wide-open three-point attempts per game.
Moreover, they allow the most three-point attempts per game.
These statistics indicate that they do a terrible job of running shooters off the three-point line and of contesting three-point attempts.
Boston's Shooters
Boston's players will easily procure favorable three-point shot attempts against Atlanta's porous defense.
Look out, among others, for Derrick White and Payton Pritchard.
Both players convert over 40 percent of their three-point attempts while attempting three-pointers at a high rate.
It is an extremely good sign for Boston's offense when the outlook for lower-profile scorers like White and Pritchard is so positive.
Boston can always lean on the likes of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, both of whom have been selected to numerous All-Star teams, to score a lot of points.
Tonight, Tatum is a game-time decision with his ankle injury, but Boston won't need him to score a lot of points tonight.
The Celtics were able to score over 120 points against Atlanta when Brown was hurt. Evidently, they have plenty of scoring depth.
But I also have no idea why Tatum would miss tonight's game, because he was able to play through his injury and thrive in his team's last game.
Atlanta's Offense
Atlanta will score more than enough points to help the game go "over" the total.
Its preference on offense, scoring at the basket, is a key reason why.
The Hawks attempt the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Clint Capela, Dyson Daniels and multiple other Hawk players are efficient scorers at the basket.
The plurality of efficient Hawks scorers should assuage any concern that Atlanta's absences tonight might pose to its ability to score enough points tonight — a concern that is further assuaged by the aforementioned fact that one of those absent players is Hunter.
Boston's Vulnerable Rim Protection
The Hawks can thrive at the basket as long as Kristaps Porzingis remains injured for Boston.
He is a very effective shot-blocker whose ability to contest shots is something that the Celtics continue to miss.
Largely due to his absence, the Celtics allow the eighth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Takeaway
Both offenses will be very comfortable in this game.
Atlanta's defense repeatedly allows teams to blow past 120 points.
Boston's well-stocked offense will feature strong shooting from lesser-known guys who will complement the regular scoring prowess of its best players.
The Hawks won't need to score many points in order to help the game go "over," but it does have many scorers who are reliably efficient at the basket and can be counted on against a defense that really misses Porzingis.
Best Bet: Over 225 at -110 with BetOnline
Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, November 12, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
Milwaukee Misses Damian Lillard
Milwaukee's terrible season is going to get more terrible.
The regularly losing Bucks will miss Damian Lillard. He is dealing with a concussion and has accordingly been ruled out for tonight's game.
Lillard's significance to Milwaukee's offense is tremendous.
With 26 points per game, he is the team's second-leading scorer.
Besides Giannis, no other Bucks player averages half as many points per game as Lillard does.
Milwaukee needs Lillard's versatility. Giannis is only good for attacking the basket, whereas Lillard can reliably score both inside and outside the arc.
Games Without Lillard's Dominance
Milwaukee's offense has, as one must expect, struggled in the games in which Lillard failed to reach 20 points.
In those three games, the Bucks scored 99 points against Memphis, 94 points against the Knicks, and 107 points against Boston — the Bucks achieved this high of a point total against Boston because they shot unusually well from deep.
Tonight, they won't get a single point from Lillard.
Toronto's Rim-Attacking Offense
The Raptors won't need many points in order to cover the spread.
But their offense does have a key matchup advantage.
This advantage stems from their determination to score at the rim: they make the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Milwaukee's worst defensive performances have come against teams that attempt a relatively high number of shots at the rim. Such teams include Chicago, Memphis, and Cleveland.
The Bucks have a good rim protector but not much else.
They don't defend in transition well.
Their inability to force turnovers places too high a burden on their aging defense to execute.
Takeaway
Milwaukee's offense takes a major hit with Lillard's absence.
Its defense won't be good enough against Toronto's group of rim-attackers.
Best Bet: Raptors +7 at -115 with BetOnline
