NBA Odds & Picks April 9
Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors
Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto
Previous Meetings
It might seem unreasonable that Indiana is favored so heavily in tonight's game.
These teams have met three times already. Toronto won two of those games, and Indiana won the other by two points.
Key Differences
However, there are two key differences that will strongly influence tonight's outcome in Indiana's favor.
One, Toronto's second- and third-leading scorers will not play tonight, whereas they had mostly played in the previous three meetings.
Scottie Barnes, who scored 20 or more points in each of those three games, is injured.
Immanuel Quickley, who averaged 16.5 points in the two games he played against the Pacers, is getting a rest day.
The other key difference is that Indiana's defense is strongly improved.
Since March, Indiana's defensive rating is 5.2 points better than it was before March – its three games against Toronto were played before March.
Indiana's Rim Protection
Indiana's defense makes it difficult for opponents to score at the rim.
The Pacers rank eighth-best at limiting opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
They are led in this respect by shot-blocker Myles Turner, who ranks tenth in blocks per game and is improving in this respect.
The strong perimeter defense of guys like Aaron Nesmith is also helpful.
Indiana's stout rim protection is useful against a Toronto team that attempts the seventh-most shots within five feet of the basket.
Toronto will be uncomfortable on offense tonight because it won't score where it wants to.
Indiana's Offense Tonight
The Pacers scored over 120 points in all three meetings against Toronto this season.
They'll continue this trend because their offense matches up well against the Raptors' defense.
Indiana wants to score at the basket more than any other team.
Toronto, though, lacks good rim protectors who can prevent blow-bys from ball-handlers. The Raptors also suffer issues in general with their ball-screen defense.
These schematic issues allow offenses to create more pressure at the rim.
The Pacers have guys like Tyrese Haliburton who will ably get to the basket and finish against a Raptors defense that allows the seventh-most field goals and the third-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Best Bet: Pacers -11.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Season History
Milwaukee is a great underdog tonight because of its season history against Boston, which shows the Bucks' constant advantage in this matchup.
In November, the Bucks only lost at Boston by three points.
When these teams played in January in Milwaukee, the Bucks won by 33 points.
Most recently, the Celtics beat Milwaukee in Boston by three points. The Bucks did not have Giannis in this game, and they might not have him tonight, either: he is 'questionable' with a hamstring injury.
Key Matchup Factor
The Bucks want to shoot threes with capable shooters like Pat Connaughton, Malik Beasley, and star guard Damian Lillard.
They will improve, relative to their recent play, because of Boston's perimeter defense.
The Celtics allow the sixth-most wide-open three-point attempts per game and struggle with defending threes especially on the road,
Motivation
Boston won't want to show too much tonight against a Milwaukee team that it could face in the playoffs.
Whereas the Bucks need to win games in order to protect their high seed, the Celtics have the top seed locked up.
Expect a focused effort from a Milwaukee team that is justifiably confident in its ability to beat Boston.
Best Bet: Bucks ML at +115 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Houston Rockets
Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Toyota Center
Houston's Bounce-Back Spot
The Rockets value tonight's game as an indication of the extent to which they have grown since their season-opening flop in Orlando.
Devoting extra concentration to a revenge opportunity is something that Houston also does regularly when the first meeting was a blowout.
When Houston lost to Phoenix by 16, the Rockets won the rematch.
Houston lost by 32 to Boston before covering the spread in the rematch.
The Rockets likewise beat New York after losing the first meeting by 15.
Most recently, they took Dallas to overtime after losing to the Mavericks by 18.
Overall Improvement
We know that Houston, one of the best teams at limiting made shots around the basket, matches up well against an Orlando offense that primarily wants to score at the basket.
The key is for the Rockets to show improvement offensively.
Houston has developed more spacing and is becoming a greater threat from behind the arc especially at home where they are efficient and productive off a higher volume of attempts.
The Rockets, since flopping in Orlando, have developed offensive roles for lesser-known players like center Jock Landale and forward Amen Thompson, and they can count on better shooting at home from Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, especially Jabari Smith Jr., and others.
Best Bet: Rockets ML at +115 with BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors
Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto
Previous Meetings
It might seem unreasonable that Indiana is favored so heavily in tonight's game.
These teams have met three times already. Toronto won two of those games, and Indiana won the other by two points.
Key Differences
However, there are two key differences that will strongly influence tonight's outcome in Indiana's favor.
One, Toronto's second- and third-leading scorers will not play tonight, whereas they had mostly played in the previous three meetings.
Scottie Barnes, who scored 20 or more points in each of those three games, is injured.
Immanuel Quickley, who averaged 16.5 points in the two games he played against the Pacers, is getting a rest day.
The other key difference is that Indiana's defense is strongly improved.
Since March, Indiana's defensive rating is 5.2 points better than it was before March – its three games against Toronto were played before March.
Indiana's Rim Protection
Indiana's defense makes it difficult for opponents to score at the rim.
The Pacers rank eighth-best at limiting opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
They are led in this respect by shot-blocker Myles Turner, who ranks tenth in blocks per game and is improving in this respect.
The strong perimeter defense of guys like Aaron Nesmith is also helpful.
Indiana's stout rim protection is useful against a Toronto team that attempts the seventh-most shots within five feet of the basket.
Toronto will be uncomfortable on offense tonight because it won't score where it wants to.
Indiana's Offense Tonight
The Pacers scored over 120 points in all three meetings against Toronto this season.
They'll continue this trend because their offense matches up well against the Raptors' defense.
Indiana wants to score at the basket more than any other team.
Toronto, though, lacks good rim protectors who can prevent blow-bys from ball-handlers. The Raptors also suffer issues in general with their ball-screen defense.
These schematic issues allow offenses to create more pressure at the rim.
The Pacers have guys like Tyrese Haliburton who will ably get to the basket and finish against a Raptors defense that allows the seventh-most field goals and the third-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Best Bet: Pacers -11.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Season History
Milwaukee is a great underdog tonight because of its season history against Boston, which shows the Bucks' constant advantage in this matchup.
In November, the Bucks only lost at Boston by three points.
When these teams played in January in Milwaukee, the Bucks won by 33 points.
Most recently, the Celtics beat Milwaukee in Boston by three points. The Bucks did not have Giannis in this game, and they might not have him tonight, either: he is 'questionable' with a hamstring injury.
Key Matchup Factor
The Bucks want to shoot threes with capable shooters like Pat Connaughton, Malik Beasley, and star guard Damian Lillard.
They will improve, relative to their recent play, because of Boston's perimeter defense.
The Celtics allow the sixth-most wide-open three-point attempts per game and struggle with defending threes especially on the road,
Motivation
Boston won't want to show too much tonight against a Milwaukee team that it could face in the playoffs.
Whereas the Bucks need to win games in order to protect their high seed, the Celtics have the top seed locked up.
Expect a focused effort from a Milwaukee team that is justifiably confident in its ability to beat Boston.
Best Bet: Bucks ML at +115 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Houston Rockets
Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Toyota Center
Houston's Bounce-Back Spot
The Rockets value tonight's game as an indication of the extent to which they have grown since their season-opening flop in Orlando.
Devoting extra concentration to a revenge opportunity is something that Houston also does regularly when the first meeting was a blowout.
When Houston lost to Phoenix by 16, the Rockets won the rematch.
Houston lost by 32 to Boston before covering the spread in the rematch.
The Rockets likewise beat New York after losing the first meeting by 15.
Most recently, they took Dallas to overtime after losing to the Mavericks by 18.
Overall Improvement
We know that Houston, one of the best teams at limiting made shots around the basket, matches up well against an Orlando offense that primarily wants to score at the basket.
The key is for the Rockets to show improvement offensively.
Houston has developed more spacing and is becoming a greater threat from behind the arc especially at home where they are efficient and productive off a higher volume of attempts.
The Rockets, since flopping in Orlando, have developed offensive roles for lesser-known players like center Jock Landale and forward Amen Thompson, and they can count on better shooting at home from Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, especially Jabari Smith Jr., and others.
Best Bet: Rockets ML at +115 with BetOnline
