3-Pack Mixed August 8: 1 Side, 1 Prop, and 1 Parlay
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Tuesday, August 6, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
Who Starts for the Rockies?
Colorado starts Kyle Freeland tonight.
Given his most recent starts, Freeland might seem to be in bad form.
But he has had the misfortune of constantly having to face difficult competition.
Six of his last eight opponents rank top-eight in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
He hasn't only faced difficult competition, and he hasn't only suffered bad starts.
For example, he faced a favorable matchup in San Francisco. In this start, which took place on July 9, he allowed one run in 6.1 innings.
This start demonstrates his reliability against favorable matchups.
Freeland's Arsenal
Freeland throws a healthy variety of pitches, six different ones, and he throws none of them as much as 30 percent of the time.
They are: sinker, slider, fastball, curveball, changeup.
His outlook tonight is strong because the Brewers slug .379 against his pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Wade Miley starts for the Brewers tonight.
Miley enters tonight's contest in strong form.
Most recently, he has allowed one run in his last ten innings.
More extensively, Miley has allowed a combined total of seven runs in his last six starts, with four of those runs coming in a single start against a Cubs lineup that, as a division rival, is very familiar with him and slugs his pitches from lefties extremely well.
Miley's Arsenal
Primarily, Miley throws a cutter, fastball, and changeup. These pitches make up about 90 percent of their arsenal.
Colorado matches up terribly against Miley, slugging .322 against his pitches from lefties outside of their super hitters-friendly home ballpark.
Best Bet: First-Half under 4.5 at -105 with Bovada
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, August 8, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Who Starts for Kansas City tonight?
The Royals start Brady Singer tonight.
Singer's 5.10 ERA creates a misleadingly negative impression of him, to which oddsmakers have apparently succumbed because they have posted an over/under for this game that seems absurdly high to me.
First of all, Singer's 3.95 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that his individual performances this season have been much more respectable than his ERA suggests.
More critically, Singer is enjoying particularly strong form at the moment.
He enters today's game having allowed a combined total of four runs in his last three games.
During this three-game stretch, he has struck out 23 batters and walked three.
Boston's Lineup
Hitting-wise, the Red Sox have struggled to find consistency.
Since July 28, they've exceeded three runs only three times in ten games.
They match up poorly against Singer in view of their current form and his pitches.
He throws a sinker, slider, and changeup.
Boston slugs .374 against his pitches from righties since July 28.
Who Starts for the Red Sox?
I like the Royals because I like Singer and I automatically dislike Boston's starter at home.
The Red Sox start Kutter Crawford tonight.
Whereas Crawford's ERA is 2.13 on the road, it is 6.03 at home.
It's not like it's a matter of which teams he's facing.
Even Pittsburgh and Colorado, for example, hurt Crawford in Boston.
Total
But the Royals won't score too much because they slug .371 against Crawford's pitches from righties.
Plus, they've cooled off, having scored six, four, and two runs in their last three games, respectively.
Best Bet: Parlay Royals RL at -128 & under 10 at -113 at +236 odds with BetOnline
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Tuesday, August 8, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
Who Starts for the Reds?
Luke Weaver starts for Cincinnati tonight.
Weaver is a great pitcher to look for when investing in hitter props, because he is consistently awful.
In his last five starts, he's yielded an ERA of 12.00 or worse in three of them.
Despite failing to last many innings, allowing six or more hits is typical for him.
Moreover, he allows a lot of home runs: he's surrendered eight of them in his last five starts.
His current struggles are particularly impressive because even weaker lineups have victimized him, one example being a Brewers lineup that ranks 23rd in runs per game.
Weaver's Arsenal
In descending order of frequency, Weaver primarily throws a fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball.
While he throws a lot of pitches, quantity is a poor substitute for lack of quality.
Opponents slug .600 or higher against three of these four pitches.
Against the other pitch, they slug .558.
So, he lacks a pitch that he can rely on.
His stuff lacks sufficient quality to induce batters to chase at a high rate.
Instead of chasing his pitches, batters are able to be selective, waiting for him to throw a pitch in a favorable location within the strike zone.
As heat maps show, he often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Luis Arraez
My favorite Marlins batter to invest in tonight is Luis Arraez.
Arraez is a consistent hitter, making him reliable no matter who's pitching.
He has at least one hit in every August game in which he's accrued at least two at-bats.
In his career against Weaver, he's already 3-for-6.
Best Bet: Luis Arraez total bases over
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Tuesday, August 6, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
- Kyle Freeland finally faces another favorable matchup today
- Wade Miley enjoys strong form
- The Rockies hit Miley's pitches from lefties terribly
Who Starts for the Rockies?
Colorado starts Kyle Freeland tonight.
Given his most recent starts, Freeland might seem to be in bad form.
But he has had the misfortune of constantly having to face difficult competition.
Six of his last eight opponents rank top-eight in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
He hasn't only faced difficult competition, and he hasn't only suffered bad starts.
For example, he faced a favorable matchup in San Francisco. In this start, which took place on July 9, he allowed one run in 6.1 innings.
This start demonstrates his reliability against favorable matchups.
Freeland's Arsenal
Freeland throws a healthy variety of pitches, six different ones, and he throws none of them as much as 30 percent of the time.
They are: sinker, slider, fastball, curveball, changeup.
His outlook tonight is strong because the Brewers slug .379 against his pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Wade Miley starts for the Brewers tonight.
Miley enters tonight's contest in strong form.
Most recently, he has allowed one run in his last ten innings.
More extensively, Miley has allowed a combined total of seven runs in his last six starts, with four of those runs coming in a single start against a Cubs lineup that, as a division rival, is very familiar with him and slugs his pitches from lefties extremely well.
Miley's Arsenal
Primarily, Miley throws a cutter, fastball, and changeup. These pitches make up about 90 percent of their arsenal.
Colorado matches up terribly against Miley, slugging .322 against his pitches from lefties outside of their super hitters-friendly home ballpark.
Best Bet: First-Half under 4.5 at -105 with Bovada
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, August 8, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
- Brady Singer enjoys strong form
- The Red Sox are struggling to hit consistently
- Kutter Crawford is terrible at home, although the Royals have cooled off and match up poorly against him
Who Starts for Kansas City tonight?
The Royals start Brady Singer tonight.
Singer's 5.10 ERA creates a misleadingly negative impression of him, to which oddsmakers have apparently succumbed because they have posted an over/under for this game that seems absurdly high to me.
First of all, Singer's 3.95 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that his individual performances this season have been much more respectable than his ERA suggests.
More critically, Singer is enjoying particularly strong form at the moment.
He enters today's game having allowed a combined total of four runs in his last three games.
During this three-game stretch, he has struck out 23 batters and walked three.
Boston's Lineup
Hitting-wise, the Red Sox have struggled to find consistency.
Since July 28, they've exceeded three runs only three times in ten games.
They match up poorly against Singer in view of their current form and his pitches.
He throws a sinker, slider, and changeup.
Boston slugs .374 against his pitches from righties since July 28.
Who Starts for the Red Sox?
I like the Royals because I like Singer and I automatically dislike Boston's starter at home.
The Red Sox start Kutter Crawford tonight.
Whereas Crawford's ERA is 2.13 on the road, it is 6.03 at home.
It's not like it's a matter of which teams he's facing.
Even Pittsburgh and Colorado, for example, hurt Crawford in Boston.
Total
But the Royals won't score too much because they slug .371 against Crawford's pitches from righties.
Plus, they've cooled off, having scored six, four, and two runs in their last three games, respectively.
Best Bet: Parlay Royals RL at -128 & under 10 at -113 at +236 odds with BetOnline
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Tuesday, August 8, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
- Luke Weaver is consistently awful
- Luis Arraez is a reliable hitter
- Arraez already owns a strong track record against Weaver
Who Starts for the Reds?
Luke Weaver starts for Cincinnati tonight.
Weaver is a great pitcher to look for when investing in hitter props, because he is consistently awful.
In his last five starts, he's yielded an ERA of 12.00 or worse in three of them.
Despite failing to last many innings, allowing six or more hits is typical for him.
Moreover, he allows a lot of home runs: he's surrendered eight of them in his last five starts.
His current struggles are particularly impressive because even weaker lineups have victimized him, one example being a Brewers lineup that ranks 23rd in runs per game.
Weaver's Arsenal
In descending order of frequency, Weaver primarily throws a fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball.
While he throws a lot of pitches, quantity is a poor substitute for lack of quality.
Opponents slug .600 or higher against three of these four pitches.
Against the other pitch, they slug .558.
So, he lacks a pitch that he can rely on.
His stuff lacks sufficient quality to induce batters to chase at a high rate.
Instead of chasing his pitches, batters are able to be selective, waiting for him to throw a pitch in a favorable location within the strike zone.
As heat maps show, he often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Luis Arraez
My favorite Marlins batter to invest in tonight is Luis Arraez.
Arraez is a consistent hitter, making him reliable no matter who's pitching.
He has at least one hit in every August game in which he's accrued at least two at-bats.
In his career against Weaver, he's already 3-for-6.
Best Bet: Luis Arraez total bases over
