Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 22
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, June 22, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
No Kawhi
Clipper star Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out for tonight's game as a result of his knee injury.
Tonight will be the third straight game that Kawhi will have missed.
After three games, we have a consistent data sample that indicates that Kawhi's absence is felt primarily on the defensive end for L.A.
Despite Kawhi's abilities on offense, L.A. has been more than fine since his absence because it owns a plethora of other talented scorers to rely on.
Since Kawhi's absence, the team's offensive rating has actually gone up by eight points compared to what it was in these playoffs while he was playing.
Conversely, until his injury, the Clipper defensive rating in these playoffs was 114.4.
In the three games that Kawhi has missed, L.A.'s defensive rating has worsened by 8.8 points.
This deterioration in defensive quality must be unsurprising given Kawhi's reputation as a great defender.
Leonard was recently accorded All-Defensive honors for the seventh time in his career.
Small Ball
What has worked for the Clipper offense is its switch to small ball.
But small ball makes the defense glaringly vulnerable to opposing size.
Against Utah, the Clippers could count on the relative deficiency of Jazz center Rudy Gobert's offensive skill set.
This deficiency encouraged them to blitz Jazz point guard Donovan Mitchell. They understood Utah's unwillingness to give the ball to Gobert.
But Deandre Ayton is a more skilled scorer, for which reason he concluded Game 1 with 20 points of 10-of-14 shooting.
Ayton and Dario Saric set screens for star Devin Booker, whom the Clipper defense wanted to attack with multiple defenders in order to force the ball out of his hands.
Phoenix could respond by having either Ayton or Saric execute a short roll out of the pick-and-roll.
The short roll constitutes a great counter to L.A.'s aggressive ball-screen defense.
I think we will see more short roll actions from Phoenix's able scoring screen-setters because the Clipper defense will need to be aggressive in its ball-screen coverage.
LA. repeatedly struggles to limit opposing top-level guards without Kawhi and without devoting multiple defenders to them.
So the Clippers doubled Luka Doncic before having Kawhi focus on guarding him. They also needed to blitz Mitchell in order to limit his scoring output.
Booker is another star whom the Clippers struggle to stop no matter what they do. In Game 1, he amassed 40 points, thus more than stepping up for the continually absent, COVID-inflicted Chris Paul.
Drop Coverage
Small ball typically allows a defense to switch in its ball-screen coverage.
But, especially after a somewhat slow beginning in this respect, the Suns responded ruthlessly to Clipper switching like with its Horns actions.
Highlight reels show, however, that L.A.'s reversion to drop coverage was likewise fatal as Booker was able to cruise inside and generate the kind of shots that he wanted to get.
This plurality of ball-screen coverage attempts must inspire doubt in the Clipper defense. One must wonder how L.A.'s defense can possibly adjust.
I like Clipper coach Tyronn Lue. But as opposing point totals indicate, he has required two games in every series to figure out how to improve his defense.
Clipper Scorers
After their tremendously emotional series-clinching victory against Utah, the Clippers only had one day of rest.
It can be hard especially for an inexperienced player to collect himself emotionally.
I think this is what happened to Terance Mann -- he had a let-down after shocking everybody with a 39-point Game 6 performance to help defeat the Jazz.
In Game 1 against Phoenix, he was timid, lacking the same energy and assertiveness that he displayed in that Game 6 against Utah.
One can only suspect Mann to bounce back and rediscover his prior energy.
Also expect Marcus Morris to bounce back. His corner three, in particular, had been a strong source of scoring for the Clipper offense, especially in Games 4 and 5 of fhe last series.
These guys will help take pressure off of Paul George and counter the depth of scoring that Phoenix's offense has to offer.
In Game 1, the Clippers generated 26 open three-point attempts against the Sun defense, with guys like Morris getting promising looks.
Best Bet: Over 224 at -110 with Bookmaker
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, June 22, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
No Kawhi
Clipper star Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out for tonight's game as a result of his knee injury.
Tonight will be the third straight game that Kawhi will have missed.
After three games, we have a consistent data sample that indicates that Kawhi's absence is felt primarily on the defensive end for L.A.
Despite Kawhi's abilities on offense, L.A. has been more than fine since his absence because it owns a plethora of other talented scorers to rely on.
Since Kawhi's absence, the team's offensive rating has actually gone up by eight points compared to what it was in these playoffs while he was playing.
Conversely, until his injury, the Clipper defensive rating in these playoffs was 114.4.
In the three games that Kawhi has missed, L.A.'s defensive rating has worsened by 8.8 points.
This deterioration in defensive quality must be unsurprising given Kawhi's reputation as a great defender.
Leonard was recently accorded All-Defensive honors for the seventh time in his career.
Small Ball
What has worked for the Clipper offense is its switch to small ball.
But small ball makes the defense glaringly vulnerable to opposing size.
Against Utah, the Clippers could count on the relative deficiency of Jazz center Rudy Gobert's offensive skill set.
This deficiency encouraged them to blitz Jazz point guard Donovan Mitchell. They understood Utah's unwillingness to give the ball to Gobert.
But Deandre Ayton is a more skilled scorer, for which reason he concluded Game 1 with 20 points of 10-of-14 shooting.
Ayton and Dario Saric set screens for star Devin Booker, whom the Clipper defense wanted to attack with multiple defenders in order to force the ball out of his hands.
Phoenix could respond by having either Ayton or Saric execute a short roll out of the pick-and-roll.
The short roll constitutes a great counter to L.A.'s aggressive ball-screen defense.
I think we will see more short roll actions from Phoenix's able scoring screen-setters because the Clipper defense will need to be aggressive in its ball-screen coverage.
LA. repeatedly struggles to limit opposing top-level guards without Kawhi and without devoting multiple defenders to them.
So the Clippers doubled Luka Doncic before having Kawhi focus on guarding him. They also needed to blitz Mitchell in order to limit his scoring output.
Booker is another star whom the Clippers struggle to stop no matter what they do. In Game 1, he amassed 40 points, thus more than stepping up for the continually absent, COVID-inflicted Chris Paul.
Drop Coverage
Small ball typically allows a defense to switch in its ball-screen coverage.
But, especially after a somewhat slow beginning in this respect, the Suns responded ruthlessly to Clipper switching like with its Horns actions.
Highlight reels show, however, that L.A.'s reversion to drop coverage was likewise fatal as Booker was able to cruise inside and generate the kind of shots that he wanted to get.
This plurality of ball-screen coverage attempts must inspire doubt in the Clipper defense. One must wonder how L.A.'s defense can possibly adjust.
I like Clipper coach Tyronn Lue. But as opposing point totals indicate, he has required two games in every series to figure out how to improve his defense.
Clipper Scorers
After their tremendously emotional series-clinching victory against Utah, the Clippers only had one day of rest.
It can be hard especially for an inexperienced player to collect himself emotionally.
I think this is what happened to Terance Mann -- he had a let-down after shocking everybody with a 39-point Game 6 performance to help defeat the Jazz.
In Game 1 against Phoenix, he was timid, lacking the same energy and assertiveness that he displayed in that Game 6 against Utah.
One can only suspect Mann to bounce back and rediscover his prior energy.
Also expect Marcus Morris to bounce back. His corner three, in particular, had been a strong source of scoring for the Clipper offense, especially in Games 4 and 5 of fhe last series.
These guys will help take pressure off of Paul George and counter the depth of scoring that Phoenix's offense has to offer.
In Game 1, the Clippers generated 26 open three-point attempts against the Sun defense, with guys like Morris getting promising looks.
Best Bet: Over 224 at -110 with Bookmaker
