Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 15
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Barclays Arena in Brooklyn
The Odds
One may be inclined to bet the "under" for this game because the "under" is 4-0 in this series so far.
But this trend does not reflect the adjustment that has taken place in the NBA Odds.
Game 1 only went "under" because the total opened at around 240 points, which turned out to be way too high.
While Brookyln still enjoyed the services of Kyrie Irving, the Nets shot below their season average in three-point percentage. Even worse, Milwaukee converted an abysmal six of 30 of its three-point attempts.
Currently, the over/under sits at 217.5. This is, approximately, a 23-point difference from the total for Game 1.
Kevin Durant
While everybody is hyper-focused on the absence of James Harden and Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant is still on the floor.
Superstar Durant has accrued from 28 to 32 points in every game of this series.
He boasts superb footwork -- especially for a man of his size -- reliable handles that allow him to bring the ball up the floor like a point guard, and a uniquely high release point for his shot that allows him to shoot, uncontested, over defenders.
In Game 4, Durant was rather inefficient. This inefficiency reflects a broader problem, a broader anomaly, in Brookyln's three-point shooting percentage. I will talk about this anomaly later.
But Durant's inefficiency is also a product of the spurious success that Milwaukee's PJ Tucker has garnered as Durant's primary on-ball defender.
Tucker is blatantly smaller than Durant -- Tucker is 6-5 while Durant is 6-10.
However, Tucker has been able to use extra physicality in order to body Durant, disrupt him, and make him uncomfortable.
Tucker was able to be extra physical because he was playing at home and benefitted from the refs -- this is why I called his defensive success spurious. It's reasonable to expect the refs to range from fair to more generous towards Durant as they continue to be swayed by the home crowd.
Unlike in Game 4, Tucker will get called for more fouls or he will have to play less aggressive.
Either way, Durant will have more freedom to create the shots that he wants to create and to lift himself over his on-ball defender.
Jeff Green, Bruce Brown, and Joe Harris
Durant will also be able to count on more support from his teammates.
While everyone is discussing the absence of Harden and Irving, Jeff Green's return to the Net lineup has gone criminally unnoticed. Green shook off his rust from his prior absence, accruing 27 minutes in Game 4.
Green is valuable to the Net offense as the roll man.
While Green was out, Bruce Brown increased the frequency with which he acted as the roll man on screens.
But Green participated as the roller more often during the regular season. He also amassed more PPP (points per possession) as the roll man: 1.20, which is a relatively strong average.
He is more difficult to guard because he is a more creative finisher who adds an above-the-rim dimension to his scoring.
Also, he is more versatile than Brown as an effective three-point shooter. During the regular season, Green converted 41.2 percent of his three-point attempts.
This versatility allows him to pop behind the arc while Milwaukee employs its drop coverage, positioning its big man closer to the basket and further away from the three-point line.
Furthermore, when teammate Blake Griffin wants to attack the basket, Green can help stretch the floor and generate more open looks for himself behind the arc.
I don't want to disregard Bruce Brown, though.
He is converting 63.6 percent of his field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
Brown has shown several times that he can successfully challenge Brook Lopez at the basket.
With the spacing that Green helps provide, Brown can be even more effective. He was already more effective -- as measured by PPP -- as the roll man.
Of course, Joe Harris is the sharpshooter on the team. He converted nearly half of his three-point attempts during the regular season.
After flourishing in the two home games in this series, he promises to bounce back after two uncharacteristic clunkers on the road. Statistics show that he typically shoots better at home.
Milwaukee Three-Pointers
While perennial MVP candidate Giannis continues to be so hard to stop -- he has exceeded 30 points in three of four games in this series -- he is getting uncharacteristically little support.
Like Brookyln, the Bucks are underperforming considerably in their three-point conversion rates relative to their season average.
In Games 3 and 4, Milwaukee amassed an average of 15 open three-point attempts and 20.5 wide-open ones.
However, the Bucks converted 33.3 percent of the former and 22 percent of the latter.
For comparison's sake, they converted 37 percent of their open three-point attempts and 40.9-percent of their wide-open ones during the regular season.
I like Brooklyn partly because the Bucks do not shoot as well on the road as they do at home.
But while the Nets will improve upon their three-point shooting, the Bucks will still do the same.
With stronger shooting, both teams exceed the 222 points that they combined for in Game 1.
Best Bet: Over 217.5 at -108 with Heritage
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Barclays Arena in Brooklyn
The Odds
One may be inclined to bet the "under" for this game because the "under" is 4-0 in this series so far.
But this trend does not reflect the adjustment that has taken place in the NBA Odds.
Game 1 only went "under" because the total opened at around 240 points, which turned out to be way too high.
While Brookyln still enjoyed the services of Kyrie Irving, the Nets shot below their season average in three-point percentage. Even worse, Milwaukee converted an abysmal six of 30 of its three-point attempts.
Currently, the over/under sits at 217.5. This is, approximately, a 23-point difference from the total for Game 1.
Kevin Durant
While everybody is hyper-focused on the absence of James Harden and Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant is still on the floor.
Superstar Durant has accrued from 28 to 32 points in every game of this series.
He boasts superb footwork -- especially for a man of his size -- reliable handles that allow him to bring the ball up the floor like a point guard, and a uniquely high release point for his shot that allows him to shoot, uncontested, over defenders.
In Game 4, Durant was rather inefficient. This inefficiency reflects a broader problem, a broader anomaly, in Brookyln's three-point shooting percentage. I will talk about this anomaly later.
But Durant's inefficiency is also a product of the spurious success that Milwaukee's PJ Tucker has garnered as Durant's primary on-ball defender.
Tucker is blatantly smaller than Durant -- Tucker is 6-5 while Durant is 6-10.
However, Tucker has been able to use extra physicality in order to body Durant, disrupt him, and make him uncomfortable.
Tucker was able to be extra physical because he was playing at home and benefitted from the refs -- this is why I called his defensive success spurious. It's reasonable to expect the refs to range from fair to more generous towards Durant as they continue to be swayed by the home crowd.
Unlike in Game 4, Tucker will get called for more fouls or he will have to play less aggressive.
Either way, Durant will have more freedom to create the shots that he wants to create and to lift himself over his on-ball defender.
Jeff Green, Bruce Brown, and Joe Harris
Durant will also be able to count on more support from his teammates.
While everyone is discussing the absence of Harden and Irving, Jeff Green's return to the Net lineup has gone criminally unnoticed. Green shook off his rust from his prior absence, accruing 27 minutes in Game 4.
Green is valuable to the Net offense as the roll man.
While Green was out, Bruce Brown increased the frequency with which he acted as the roll man on screens.
But Green participated as the roller more often during the regular season. He also amassed more PPP (points per possession) as the roll man: 1.20, which is a relatively strong average.
He is more difficult to guard because he is a more creative finisher who adds an above-the-rim dimension to his scoring.
Also, he is more versatile than Brown as an effective three-point shooter. During the regular season, Green converted 41.2 percent of his three-point attempts.
This versatility allows him to pop behind the arc while Milwaukee employs its drop coverage, positioning its big man closer to the basket and further away from the three-point line.
Furthermore, when teammate Blake Griffin wants to attack the basket, Green can help stretch the floor and generate more open looks for himself behind the arc.
I don't want to disregard Bruce Brown, though.
He is converting 63.6 percent of his field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
Brown has shown several times that he can successfully challenge Brook Lopez at the basket.
With the spacing that Green helps provide, Brown can be even more effective. He was already more effective -- as measured by PPP -- as the roll man.
Of course, Joe Harris is the sharpshooter on the team. He converted nearly half of his three-point attempts during the regular season.
After flourishing in the two home games in this series, he promises to bounce back after two uncharacteristic clunkers on the road. Statistics show that he typically shoots better at home.
Milwaukee Three-Pointers
While perennial MVP candidate Giannis continues to be so hard to stop -- he has exceeded 30 points in three of four games in this series -- he is getting uncharacteristically little support.
Like Brookyln, the Bucks are underperforming considerably in their three-point conversion rates relative to their season average.
In Games 3 and 4, Milwaukee amassed an average of 15 open three-point attempts and 20.5 wide-open ones.
However, the Bucks converted 33.3 percent of the former and 22 percent of the latter.
For comparison's sake, they converted 37 percent of their open three-point attempts and 40.9-percent of their wide-open ones during the regular season.
I like Brooklyn partly because the Bucks do not shoot as well on the road as they do at home.
But while the Nets will improve upon their three-point shooting, the Bucks will still do the same.
With stronger shooting, both teams exceed the 222 points that they combined for in Game 1.
Best Bet: Over 217.5 at -108 with Heritage
