Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 1
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, June 1, 2021, at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
Value
For one’s sports betting, it’s obviously important to judge whether a spread or a total looks reasonable.
As of now, the Suns are favored by five points.
In order to judge whether this spread is reasonable, we need to consider where it’s coming from.
Sunday was the last time when the Suns and Lakers played. On that day, the Lakers were favored by six points at home.
In order to account for the 11-point difference producing the current spread, we can grant that six points are for playing on the other team’s home court — tonight’s game is in Phoenix.
That leaves five points that aren’t accounted for by the change in venue.
The unique thing about Game 5 is that Laker star Anthony Davis is injured — he strained his groin last game.
Reports vary as to the exact likelihood that he’ll play tonight.
But the utterly, most optimistic reports have him listed as ‘questionable,’ while even those same reports explain that it’s more of a doubtful kind of questionable.
Simply put, it’s unlikely that Davis will play tonight.
Because the public perception of Davis is very positive, oddsmakers have skewed the spread in Phoenix’s favor.
Assessing AD’s Importance
We obviously cannot take public perception at face value because then we would not be gaining any edge against the sportsbooks.
So we have to ask ourselves whether five points is not enough, just right, or too much.
If the spread were just right, we would expect the Lakers to be worse off without Davis and we would be able to provide an objective measure of that regression.
In the regular season, Davis spent plenty of time being injured. So a strong data sample came into existence which we can use in order to discern how strong or weak the Lakers are without Davis.
When Davis sat down and when LeBron was playing, the Lakers were 7.1 points stronger per 100 possessions.
This statistic indicates that the sportsbooks are wrong to favor the Suns extra heavily because it turns out that the Lakers are very well off as long as they can count on LeBron.
LeBron’s Importance
In the regular season, LeBron led the Lakers by far in points per game — of which he averaged 3.2 more than AD.
He also led the team in assists per game and ranked among team leaders — the Lakers have multiple other starting-caliber big bodies — in rebounds per game.
LeBron’s passing ability is historically good. His strong vision allows him to perceive openings that others fail to detect.
His accuracy and touch allow him to fit passes into tighter spaces.
As a passer, he is creative. He is historically regarded as someone who likes to drive and kick. But he will also hit a roller, kick out from the post, and ably in pass in various other situations.
Because he uses his passing ability to make all of his teammates better, it helps explain the strongly positive point differential that the Lakers have when he’s on the court without AD.
James, Kuzma, Schroder
With the Suns eager to pack the paint, the Lakers need to perform more effectively from beyond the arc in order to make Phoenix respect the three-pointer and therewith to open up more driving space inside.
Relative to what they’ve done throughout the regular season, the Lakers are underachieving massively in their efficiency on open three-point attempts.
During the regular season, the Lakers converted 34.3 percent of their open three-point attempts. So far this series, that percentage has dropped to 22 percent.
Last game, L.A. attempted more threes and they will continue to have the same confidence to attempt threes.
Two strong candidates to improve in their shooting are LeBron and Kyle Kuzma.
Especially Kuzma was drastically more efficient from behind the arc during the regular season. I like that he still has the confidence to attempt a lot of threes.
In Game 5, more of those open shots will fall.
As for Dennis Schroder, he characteristically likes to drive inside in order to make things happen as a scorer or as a distributor.
In L.A.’s eight-point loss on Sunday, he lay an absolute egg. But he had scored 14, 24, and 20 points in his three previous games.
Schroder tends to bounce back after a clunker. So he will likewise step up.
The Laker Defense
In addition to LeBron’s offense, another big reason why the Lakers are being undervalued by sports betting sites is their defense.
So far this series, they have held Phoenix to 100 points or fewer in every game.
They showed last game that, when their offense is off, they can amass points by forcing turnovers.
In the regular season, they forced the fourth-most turnovers per game.
Moreover, they have plenty of bigs who are boasting superb defensive ratings this series and, with their effectivity as individual defenders, can limit the Suns inside when Davis is absent. Andre Drummond is one such example.
L.A. also posted top-level defensive numbers this season when both AD and LeBron were absent, which is why they ranked third in the regular season in defensive rating even though both players spent a lot of time being injured.
Besides bigs like Drummond, guards like Alex Caruso also help.
Caruso deserves All-NBA Defensive Team membership partly because of the ability that he’s shown, in both the regular season and the playoffs, to limit Phoenix’s Chris Paul and Devin Booker.
Video footage shows Caruso’s ability to stay in front of his man and harass him with good hands.
Best Bet: Lakers +5 at -105 with Bovada
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, June 1, 2021, at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
Value
For one’s sports betting, it’s obviously important to judge whether a spread or a total looks reasonable.
As of now, the Suns are favored by five points.
In order to judge whether this spread is reasonable, we need to consider where it’s coming from.
Sunday was the last time when the Suns and Lakers played. On that day, the Lakers were favored by six points at home.
In order to account for the 11-point difference producing the current spread, we can grant that six points are for playing on the other team’s home court — tonight’s game is in Phoenix.
That leaves five points that aren’t accounted for by the change in venue.
The unique thing about Game 5 is that Laker star Anthony Davis is injured — he strained his groin last game.
Reports vary as to the exact likelihood that he’ll play tonight.
But the utterly, most optimistic reports have him listed as ‘questionable,’ while even those same reports explain that it’s more of a doubtful kind of questionable.
Simply put, it’s unlikely that Davis will play tonight.
Because the public perception of Davis is very positive, oddsmakers have skewed the spread in Phoenix’s favor.
Assessing AD’s Importance
We obviously cannot take public perception at face value because then we would not be gaining any edge against the sportsbooks.
So we have to ask ourselves whether five points is not enough, just right, or too much.
If the spread were just right, we would expect the Lakers to be worse off without Davis and we would be able to provide an objective measure of that regression.
In the regular season, Davis spent plenty of time being injured. So a strong data sample came into existence which we can use in order to discern how strong or weak the Lakers are without Davis.
When Davis sat down and when LeBron was playing, the Lakers were 7.1 points stronger per 100 possessions.
This statistic indicates that the sportsbooks are wrong to favor the Suns extra heavily because it turns out that the Lakers are very well off as long as they can count on LeBron.
LeBron’s Importance
In the regular season, LeBron led the Lakers by far in points per game — of which he averaged 3.2 more than AD.
He also led the team in assists per game and ranked among team leaders — the Lakers have multiple other starting-caliber big bodies — in rebounds per game.
LeBron’s passing ability is historically good. His strong vision allows him to perceive openings that others fail to detect.
His accuracy and touch allow him to fit passes into tighter spaces.
As a passer, he is creative. He is historically regarded as someone who likes to drive and kick. But he will also hit a roller, kick out from the post, and ably in pass in various other situations.
Because he uses his passing ability to make all of his teammates better, it helps explain the strongly positive point differential that the Lakers have when he’s on the court without AD.
James, Kuzma, Schroder
With the Suns eager to pack the paint, the Lakers need to perform more effectively from beyond the arc in order to make Phoenix respect the three-pointer and therewith to open up more driving space inside.
Relative to what they’ve done throughout the regular season, the Lakers are underachieving massively in their efficiency on open three-point attempts.
During the regular season, the Lakers converted 34.3 percent of their open three-point attempts. So far this series, that percentage has dropped to 22 percent.
Last game, L.A. attempted more threes and they will continue to have the same confidence to attempt threes.
Two strong candidates to improve in their shooting are LeBron and Kyle Kuzma.
Especially Kuzma was drastically more efficient from behind the arc during the regular season. I like that he still has the confidence to attempt a lot of threes.
In Game 5, more of those open shots will fall.
As for Dennis Schroder, he characteristically likes to drive inside in order to make things happen as a scorer or as a distributor.
In L.A.’s eight-point loss on Sunday, he lay an absolute egg. But he had scored 14, 24, and 20 points in his three previous games.
Schroder tends to bounce back after a clunker. So he will likewise step up.
The Laker Defense
In addition to LeBron’s offense, another big reason why the Lakers are being undervalued by sports betting sites is their defense.
So far this series, they have held Phoenix to 100 points or fewer in every game.
They showed last game that, when their offense is off, they can amass points by forcing turnovers.
In the regular season, they forced the fourth-most turnovers per game.
Moreover, they have plenty of bigs who are boasting superb defensive ratings this series and, with their effectivity as individual defenders, can limit the Suns inside when Davis is absent. Andre Drummond is one such example.
L.A. also posted top-level defensive numbers this season when both AD and LeBron were absent, which is why they ranked third in the regular season in defensive rating even though both players spent a lot of time being injured.
Besides bigs like Drummond, guards like Alex Caruso also help.
Caruso deserves All-NBA Defensive Team membership partly because of the ability that he’s shown, in both the regular season and the playoffs, to limit Phoenix’s Chris Paul and Devin Booker.
Video footage shows Caruso’s ability to stay in front of his man and harass him with good hands.
Best Bet: Lakers +5 at -105 with Bovada
