Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 25
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
Don’t Worry About Game 1
It may seem alarming that the Lakers lost Game 1 while only scoring 90 points.
But Game 1 troubles are nothing new for the Lakers and especially not for LeBron.
Last year, the defending champs lost Game 1 in their first two playoff series.
As for LeBron, in all of the playoff series games — I mean, Game 1, Game 2, Game 3, etc. — Game 1 is the only one where he has a winning percentage below 60.
So historically speaking, we should expect LeBron and the Lakers to improve in Game 2.
LeBron Doesn’t Need To Score Much
In Game 1, LeBron scored 18 points, which is well below his regular season average of 25.
I’m actually ok with that. Given his high IQ, his famed passing ability, and his characteristic defense, LeBron can positively impact a game in other ways.
Even with his scoring down, he still produced a +2 in the +/- category. He amassed 10 assists by finding teammates and putting them into propitious scoring positions even though an uncharacteristically low number of their shots were falling.
Anthony Davis
What needs to change — and we have every reason to expect this to change — is Anthony Davis’ scoring.
Davis, in Game 1, mustered 13 points on 5-of-16 shooting. Davis is not hurt. He is not ill. He simply was not himself.
His defense was subpar relative to his usual self, as well. The reigning runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year is an elite shot-blocker and a disruptive defender.
But, in Game 1, he failed to be disruptive defensively on a play-to-play basis.
Typically, Davis is a more efficient shooter. His efficient shooting helps open up the paint.
Also, he’s usually a stronger passer when facing the basket.
Moreover, he’s typically a more aggressive scorer. He likes to drive inside, using his speed, length, and positive handles to create a total package that is difficult for defenders to account for and that would be difficult for.
His aggressiveness would have also been helpful in getting Phoenix defensive anchor Deandre Ayton out of the paint and onto the bench by taking advantage of Ayton's occasional proneness to fouling.
But simply his ability to beat Ayton one-on-one is something that Davis needed to showcase in Game 1, but didn’t.
On May 9 — so not long ago at all — Ayton played 33 minutes but couldn’t keep Davis from accruing 42 points in a 13-point Laker victory.
Davis has flourished and can, and will flourish again against the Suns.
120
Based on series history, 120 is the point total that the Lakers need to reach — again — in order to defeat the Suns.
On May 9, they scored 123 without the benefit of LeBron’s presence.
Part of what explains the higher scoring output in that game was their more efficient three-point shooting.
In Game 1, shots were not falling from behind the arc. A ridiculously low 14.3 percent of their open three-point attempts fell, likewise only 29.4 percent of their wide open three-point attempts.
During the regular season, both of these figures were drastically higher. So we should expect them to be in Game 2, which will open up the paint all the more for LeBron and AD.
Best Bet: Lakers ML at -110 with Bovada
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 10:30 p.m. ET at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
Unstoppable Luka
Superstar Luka Doncic has consistently had his way with the Clippers.
In the regular season, he averaged 30.3 points per game in three games against the Clippers.
In Game 1, he had 30 points through three quarters, before vanishing in a fourth quarter that his team didn’t need him for.
The Clippers have tried a variety of tactics in the hope of limiting Luka. They've alternated ball-screen coverages, tried sticking different defenders on him, and so forth. Their effort has been futile.
Luka is going to get his 30+. With his solid awareness and distribution, he will also get teammates involved, especially when the Clippers do get the ball out of his hands by trapping him.
In the regular season, Dallas ranked eighth in three-pointers made per game and finished strongly in this respect.
The Mavericks benefit from getting to attempt a lot of open and wide open three-pointers partly because of their five-out spacing, because center Kristaps Porzingis helps space the floor with his characteristically efficient three-point shooting, and because Luka draws so much attention to himself.
Tim Hardaway Jr., for example, benefited in Game 1 from the above factors. He converted five of nine three-point attempts. Yet this wasn’t even close to his ceiling.
In another game in May — on May 4 — he converted 10 of 18 three-point attempts.
So Maverick shooters are generally far from reaching their ceiling. This is especially true of Porzingis, who had a bad game, but proved in last year’s series that he can be relied on to amass over 20 points per game against these Clippers.
Clipper Three-Pointers
The Clippers won’t need to do much to shove the score “over” the total.
During the regular season, they ranked sixth in three-pointers made per game thanks to higher-volume and efficient shooters like Paul George.
Defensively, Dallas tries to limit opposing scoring in the paint. It is known, among other things, for its conservative ball-screen principles that are geared towards protecting the basket.
This conservative focus helps make the Maverick perimeter defense more vulnerable. In the regular season, they ranked a meager 18th in limiting opposing three-pointers made. The Clippers can take advantage of this relative weakness with their arsenal of strong three-point shooters.
Best Bet: Over 216 at -105 with Bovada
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
Don’t Worry About Game 1
It may seem alarming that the Lakers lost Game 1 while only scoring 90 points.
But Game 1 troubles are nothing new for the Lakers and especially not for LeBron.
Last year, the defending champs lost Game 1 in their first two playoff series.
As for LeBron, in all of the playoff series games — I mean, Game 1, Game 2, Game 3, etc. — Game 1 is the only one where he has a winning percentage below 60.
So historically speaking, we should expect LeBron and the Lakers to improve in Game 2.
LeBron Doesn’t Need To Score Much
In Game 1, LeBron scored 18 points, which is well below his regular season average of 25.
I’m actually ok with that. Given his high IQ, his famed passing ability, and his characteristic defense, LeBron can positively impact a game in other ways.
Even with his scoring down, he still produced a +2 in the +/- category. He amassed 10 assists by finding teammates and putting them into propitious scoring positions even though an uncharacteristically low number of their shots were falling.
Anthony Davis
What needs to change — and we have every reason to expect this to change — is Anthony Davis’ scoring.
Davis, in Game 1, mustered 13 points on 5-of-16 shooting. Davis is not hurt. He is not ill. He simply was not himself.
His defense was subpar relative to his usual self, as well. The reigning runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year is an elite shot-blocker and a disruptive defender.
But, in Game 1, he failed to be disruptive defensively on a play-to-play basis.
Typically, Davis is a more efficient shooter. His efficient shooting helps open up the paint.
Also, he’s usually a stronger passer when facing the basket.
Moreover, he’s typically a more aggressive scorer. He likes to drive inside, using his speed, length, and positive handles to create a total package that is difficult for defenders to account for and that would be difficult for.
His aggressiveness would have also been helpful in getting Phoenix defensive anchor Deandre Ayton out of the paint and onto the bench by taking advantage of Ayton's occasional proneness to fouling.
But simply his ability to beat Ayton one-on-one is something that Davis needed to showcase in Game 1, but didn’t.
On May 9 — so not long ago at all — Ayton played 33 minutes but couldn’t keep Davis from accruing 42 points in a 13-point Laker victory.
Davis has flourished and can, and will flourish again against the Suns.
120
Based on series history, 120 is the point total that the Lakers need to reach — again — in order to defeat the Suns.
On May 9, they scored 123 without the benefit of LeBron’s presence.
Part of what explains the higher scoring output in that game was their more efficient three-point shooting.
In Game 1, shots were not falling from behind the arc. A ridiculously low 14.3 percent of their open three-point attempts fell, likewise only 29.4 percent of their wide open three-point attempts.
During the regular season, both of these figures were drastically higher. So we should expect them to be in Game 2, which will open up the paint all the more for LeBron and AD.
Best Bet: Lakers ML at -110 with Bovada
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 10:30 p.m. ET at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
Unstoppable Luka
Superstar Luka Doncic has consistently had his way with the Clippers.
In the regular season, he averaged 30.3 points per game in three games against the Clippers.
In Game 1, he had 30 points through three quarters, before vanishing in a fourth quarter that his team didn’t need him for.
The Clippers have tried a variety of tactics in the hope of limiting Luka. They've alternated ball-screen coverages, tried sticking different defenders on him, and so forth. Their effort has been futile.
Luka is going to get his 30+. With his solid awareness and distribution, he will also get teammates involved, especially when the Clippers do get the ball out of his hands by trapping him.
In the regular season, Dallas ranked eighth in three-pointers made per game and finished strongly in this respect.
The Mavericks benefit from getting to attempt a lot of open and wide open three-pointers partly because of their five-out spacing, because center Kristaps Porzingis helps space the floor with his characteristically efficient three-point shooting, and because Luka draws so much attention to himself.
Tim Hardaway Jr., for example, benefited in Game 1 from the above factors. He converted five of nine three-point attempts. Yet this wasn’t even close to his ceiling.
In another game in May — on May 4 — he converted 10 of 18 three-point attempts.
So Maverick shooters are generally far from reaching their ceiling. This is especially true of Porzingis, who had a bad game, but proved in last year’s series that he can be relied on to amass over 20 points per game against these Clippers.
Clipper Three-Pointers
The Clippers won’t need to do much to shove the score “over” the total.
During the regular season, they ranked sixth in three-pointers made per game thanks to higher-volume and efficient shooters like Paul George.
Defensively, Dallas tries to limit opposing scoring in the paint. It is known, among other things, for its conservative ball-screen principles that are geared towards protecting the basket.
This conservative focus helps make the Maverick perimeter defense more vulnerable. In the regular season, they ranked a meager 18th in limiting opposing three-pointers made. The Clippers can take advantage of this relative weakness with their arsenal of strong three-point shooters.
Best Bet: Over 216 at -105 with Bovada
