Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 18
Charlotte Hornets vs. Indiana Pacers
Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 6:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis
The Importance of Shot Attempts
More shot attempts is likelier to mean more points because, in attempting more shots, teams accrue additional opportunities to score.
Indiana games have, lately and in general, witnessed a lot of scoring totals that flew over the over/under posted by NBA oddsmakers.
In their last game, for example, the Pacers and Raptors combined for 192 field goal attempts in a 238-point game.
It is true that the Pacers went slightly above their average attempt total — they average 91.2 attempts per game and they amassed 95 field goal attempts in the contest against Toronto.
But you have to account for the fact that their season average in attempts is partly a product of the games that they played against slower-paced teams, against teams that want to slow the game down and so limit the number of shots that two teams attempt in a game.
Matched up against another team that likes to put up shots, the Pacers will amass a higher total of shot attempts and so have more opportunities to score.
Recent Hornet games have seen Charlotte attempt over 90 shots. In their past three games, for example, the Hornets have attempted 93.3 shots per game.
This tendency has continued even against slow-paced teams like Denver that normally don’t allow a lot in transition.
Pace and Early Offense
Both teams witnessed a massive jump, relative to last year, in their usual pace.
This year, the Pacers rank fourth in pace with 102.1 possessions per game (48 minutes).
Like Charlotte, the Pacers love to score early in the shot clock.
They rank top five — as does Charlotte — in frequency of transition plays.
These teams create havoc on defense, forcing turnovers, deflecting passes, and blocking shots, in order to run the floor and create instant offense.
For Indiana, Edmond Sumner is great in this respect. Among players that have amassed at least 500 minutes, he averages the most fast break points per 36 minutes with 5.1.
While Sumner isn’t on the same level as injured starter Malcolm Brogdon, Brogdon’s absence would not hurt the total for this game because Sumner would gain playing time during which he would continue to amass fast break points.
But these two teams are the two fastest-moving ones on offense — as measured by miles per hour — not only because of their proclivity to execute offense in transition.
In the half-court, both teams produce an intense, quantifiable degree of both player and ball movement.
As a result of this higher level of movement, each team ranks top-five in the rate of shots attempted within the first six seconds of the shot clock.
Efficiency
Both teams are vulnerable in areas that the other team can exploit to a significant degree.
Charlotte ranks seventh-to-last in limiting opposing points in transition and so is especially vulnerable to Indiana’s transition game.
The Pacers, missing injured shot-blocker Myles Turner, allow the most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket by far.
Because the Hornets love to attempt shots at the basket more than every other team besides eight, they can thrive by driving with guys like Malik Monk, Devonte’ Graham, and LaMelo Ball.
In the half-court, the Hornet perimeter defense has been one of the worst at limiting open and wide open three-point attempts.
They allow the most corner threes per game. Pacer Justin Holiday will have a great game because he ranks fourth in corner threes.
Best Bet: Over 227 at -108 with Heritage
Washington Wizards vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (TNT) at TD Garden in Boston
Fading Boston
Tonight’s outcome will reflect which team is playing better basketball at this time.
Right now, the answer is clearly not Boston. In May, the Celtics are 2-6 SU.
They lost to the likes of Cleveland and Chicago.
Going back to the end of April, they lost by 21 at Charlotte and by four at home against lowly Oklahoma City.
Conversely, the Wizards look like one of the NBA’s better teams and are playing their best basketball of the season, going 5-4 SU in May with three of those losses coming by a combined total of three points at Dallas, at Milwaukee, and at Atlanta.
While they lost the regular season series against Boston, these teams haven’t seen each other since Boston beat Washington by a point at home back in February.
Russell Westbrook
Individually, Russell Westbrook has experienced a strong surge in his assist and scoring averages since February.
He is able to carry the offense even when teammate Bradley Beal is struggling with injury.
Guard-centered offenses have plagued the Celtics during their latest negative stretch.
When Cleveland upset Boston, for example, Cavalier point guard Collin Sexton amassed 28 points for his second-highest scoring total of the month.
Centers
Boston is missing healthy players at the center position.
Robert Williams will be a game-time decision with his toe injury, although it seems likelier that Tristan Thompson will play after he practiced yesterday despite suffering a strained pectoral. They certainly miss Daniel Theis, whom they traded away.
Washington has a slew of bigs that it can throw at Boston. Daniel Gafford has been a surprisingly positive source of offense with his 10.1 points per game, which is easily a career-high for him.
Rui Hachimura has also developed considerably as a scorer as evident in his regularly higher scoring totals.
There are other guys, too, like Robin Lopez, who can post-up or otherwise threaten inside.
Missing Jaylen Brown
Boston misses All-Star shooting guard Jaylen Brown for his offensive production, his 24.8 points per game.
He had the 22nd-highest usage rate. He was useful in Boston’s favored ball-screen game and he was even more efficient as a spot-up shooter. He could also create shots on his own.
As Boston’s leading-scorer, Brown’s absence holds the team back from keeping pace with Washington’s offensive onslaught.
Best Bet: Wizards +2 at -108 with Heritage
Charlotte Hornets vs. Indiana Pacers
Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 6:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis
The Importance of Shot Attempts
More shot attempts is likelier to mean more points because, in attempting more shots, teams accrue additional opportunities to score.
Indiana games have, lately and in general, witnessed a lot of scoring totals that flew over the over/under posted by NBA oddsmakers.
In their last game, for example, the Pacers and Raptors combined for 192 field goal attempts in a 238-point game.
It is true that the Pacers went slightly above their average attempt total — they average 91.2 attempts per game and they amassed 95 field goal attempts in the contest against Toronto.
But you have to account for the fact that their season average in attempts is partly a product of the games that they played against slower-paced teams, against teams that want to slow the game down and so limit the number of shots that two teams attempt in a game.
Matched up against another team that likes to put up shots, the Pacers will amass a higher total of shot attempts and so have more opportunities to score.
Recent Hornet games have seen Charlotte attempt over 90 shots. In their past three games, for example, the Hornets have attempted 93.3 shots per game.
This tendency has continued even against slow-paced teams like Denver that normally don’t allow a lot in transition.
Pace and Early Offense
Both teams witnessed a massive jump, relative to last year, in their usual pace.
This year, the Pacers rank fourth in pace with 102.1 possessions per game (48 minutes).
Like Charlotte, the Pacers love to score early in the shot clock.
They rank top five — as does Charlotte — in frequency of transition plays.
These teams create havoc on defense, forcing turnovers, deflecting passes, and blocking shots, in order to run the floor and create instant offense.
For Indiana, Edmond Sumner is great in this respect. Among players that have amassed at least 500 minutes, he averages the most fast break points per 36 minutes with 5.1.
While Sumner isn’t on the same level as injured starter Malcolm Brogdon, Brogdon’s absence would not hurt the total for this game because Sumner would gain playing time during which he would continue to amass fast break points.
But these two teams are the two fastest-moving ones on offense — as measured by miles per hour — not only because of their proclivity to execute offense in transition.
In the half-court, both teams produce an intense, quantifiable degree of both player and ball movement.
As a result of this higher level of movement, each team ranks top-five in the rate of shots attempted within the first six seconds of the shot clock.
Efficiency
Both teams are vulnerable in areas that the other team can exploit to a significant degree.
Charlotte ranks seventh-to-last in limiting opposing points in transition and so is especially vulnerable to Indiana’s transition game.
The Pacers, missing injured shot-blocker Myles Turner, allow the most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket by far.
Because the Hornets love to attempt shots at the basket more than every other team besides eight, they can thrive by driving with guys like Malik Monk, Devonte’ Graham, and LaMelo Ball.
In the half-court, the Hornet perimeter defense has been one of the worst at limiting open and wide open three-point attempts.
They allow the most corner threes per game. Pacer Justin Holiday will have a great game because he ranks fourth in corner threes.
Best Bet: Over 227 at -108 with Heritage
Washington Wizards vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (TNT) at TD Garden in Boston
Fading Boston
Tonight’s outcome will reflect which team is playing better basketball at this time.
Right now, the answer is clearly not Boston. In May, the Celtics are 2-6 SU.
They lost to the likes of Cleveland and Chicago.
Going back to the end of April, they lost by 21 at Charlotte and by four at home against lowly Oklahoma City.
Conversely, the Wizards look like one of the NBA’s better teams and are playing their best basketball of the season, going 5-4 SU in May with three of those losses coming by a combined total of three points at Dallas, at Milwaukee, and at Atlanta.
While they lost the regular season series against Boston, these teams haven’t seen each other since Boston beat Washington by a point at home back in February.
Russell Westbrook
Individually, Russell Westbrook has experienced a strong surge in his assist and scoring averages since February.
He is able to carry the offense even when teammate Bradley Beal is struggling with injury.
Guard-centered offenses have plagued the Celtics during their latest negative stretch.
When Cleveland upset Boston, for example, Cavalier point guard Collin Sexton amassed 28 points for his second-highest scoring total of the month.
Centers
Boston is missing healthy players at the center position.
Robert Williams will be a game-time decision with his toe injury, although it seems likelier that Tristan Thompson will play after he practiced yesterday despite suffering a strained pectoral. They certainly miss Daniel Theis, whom they traded away.
Washington has a slew of bigs that it can throw at Boston. Daniel Gafford has been a surprisingly positive source of offense with his 10.1 points per game, which is easily a career-high for him.
Rui Hachimura has also developed considerably as a scorer as evident in his regularly higher scoring totals.
There are other guys, too, like Robin Lopez, who can post-up or otherwise threaten inside.
Missing Jaylen Brown
Boston misses All-Star shooting guard Jaylen Brown for his offensive production, his 24.8 points per game.
He had the 22nd-highest usage rate. He was useful in Boston’s favored ball-screen game and he was even more efficient as a spot-up shooter. He could also create shots on his own.
As Boston’s leading-scorer, Brown’s absence holds the team back from keeping pace with Washington’s offensive onslaught.
Best Bet: Wizards +2 at -108 with Heritage
