Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 11
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at TD Garden in Boston
Key Trend
On six different occasions, Miami has faced the same team twice in a row and covered in the first game.
After covering the first game against a given team, Miami is 0-6 ATS when facing that same team a second straight time.
The most logical explanation for this trend is coaching. When teams face each other multiple times in a row, coaches will try to make adjustments after the first game.
In a sense, coaches that lose the first game probably have an advantage. Because they lost, they likely have more adjustments to make than the other team, which makes them more unpredictable in the senses that, compared to the first game, they will change more while the other team will change less.
At all events, Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra and his team find themselves in an unfavorable situation tonight because they will face Boston again after covering the spread against the Celtics on Sunday.
Boston Offense vs. Miami Defense
Defensively, Miami is at its best inside the arc.
But the Heat allow a lot of three-point attempts. They concede the highest rate of open three-point attempts and the seventh-highest rate of wide open ones.
So the way to score a lot against Miami’s defense is behind the arc.
During Miami’s recent regression in scoring defense — where the Heat have allowed more points than they do on average in four consecutive games — giving up three-pointers has been a significant problem.
Dallas, for example, made 22 three-pointers and the list continues.
Boston ranks 11th in three-pointers made and is more efficient at home.
Its two highest-volume three-point shooters are Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker.
Both like to use screens to get open. A ball-screen will help free up Tatum in isolation. Staggered screens — where two different players set a screen — will give Walker more space to act.
Newer Celtic Evan Fournier is also making a strong impact, especially recently. He has converted over 60 percent of his three-point attempts in three of four May games.
These three players will help Boston thrive from behind the arc tonight.
Miami Offense vs. Boston Defense
Miami’s offense suffers one of the worst regressions in terms of three-point percentage when playing on the road.
Whereas the Heat shoot 37.1 percent from three in home games, they convert 33.5 percent of their three-point attempts on the road. This latter statistic ranks close to the bottom.
Their road struggles from behind the arc is significant because much of their offense comes from the individual playmaking capabilities of guards Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro plus the catch-and-shoot potential of Duncan Robinson.
Whereas Boston’s Walker-led ball-screen game, which ranks eighth in PPP (points per possession), gives its offense a second dimension, Miami’s shooting woes on the road make it too reliant on the inside scoring of Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler.
While it is true that injuries and previous transactions make Boston relatively limited at the center position, the Celtics can play small-ball especially against a Heat team that lacks prototypical centers who can use strength and power to dominate inside.
Best Bet: Celtics +1 at -110 with BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Indiana Pacers
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indiana
Key Trend
Indiana is on an 0-14 ATS run in the first game back home from a road trip.
Throughout the season, the Pacers have been an awful team to bet on at home. This trend largely explains why.
As part of this trend, they have lain many clunkers on offense. Most recently, they mustered 93 points against Sacramento’s characteristically abysmal defense.
With leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon still injured — he remains questionable to play with a hamstring injury that has kept him out of every Pacer game in May — the Pacer offense is already hampered. Indiana would really miss Brogdon’s driving prowess and individual ability to create offense.
Dominance Inside
Pacer center Myles Turner had entered Defensive Player of the Year conversations partly because he was the league leader in blocks per game.
With this absence, teams are attacking inside at a vastly higher rate. Since April 19, which is when Turner’s absence began, the Pacers are allowing 41 attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
To put this figure in comparison, this is 3.9 more attempts within five feet of the basket per game than any other team during this span.
With Ben Simmons efficiently driving the basketball, Philadelphia loves to attack inside.
While star Joel Embiid may miss tonight’s game, Dwight Howard still demands a lot of attention inside given his size. He is in fact coming off a 19-point, 14-rebound effort against the Pistons.
Even with Turner, the Pacers lack strong and physical offerings in the interior. But Howard with his 265 pounds accrued 15 rebounds when he started in place of the injured Embiid back on January 31, a game in which the 76ers beat Indiana by nine points despite being underdogs.
Best Bet: 76ers -6.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at TD Garden in Boston
Key Trend
On six different occasions, Miami has faced the same team twice in a row and covered in the first game.
After covering the first game against a given team, Miami is 0-6 ATS when facing that same team a second straight time.
The most logical explanation for this trend is coaching. When teams face each other multiple times in a row, coaches will try to make adjustments after the first game.
In a sense, coaches that lose the first game probably have an advantage. Because they lost, they likely have more adjustments to make than the other team, which makes them more unpredictable in the senses that, compared to the first game, they will change more while the other team will change less.
At all events, Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra and his team find themselves in an unfavorable situation tonight because they will face Boston again after covering the spread against the Celtics on Sunday.
Boston Offense vs. Miami Defense
Defensively, Miami is at its best inside the arc.
But the Heat allow a lot of three-point attempts. They concede the highest rate of open three-point attempts and the seventh-highest rate of wide open ones.
So the way to score a lot against Miami’s defense is behind the arc.
During Miami’s recent regression in scoring defense — where the Heat have allowed more points than they do on average in four consecutive games — giving up three-pointers has been a significant problem.
Dallas, for example, made 22 three-pointers and the list continues.
Boston ranks 11th in three-pointers made and is more efficient at home.
Its two highest-volume three-point shooters are Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker.
Both like to use screens to get open. A ball-screen will help free up Tatum in isolation. Staggered screens — where two different players set a screen — will give Walker more space to act.
Newer Celtic Evan Fournier is also making a strong impact, especially recently. He has converted over 60 percent of his three-point attempts in three of four May games.
These three players will help Boston thrive from behind the arc tonight.
Miami Offense vs. Boston Defense
Miami’s offense suffers one of the worst regressions in terms of three-point percentage when playing on the road.
Whereas the Heat shoot 37.1 percent from three in home games, they convert 33.5 percent of their three-point attempts on the road. This latter statistic ranks close to the bottom.
Their road struggles from behind the arc is significant because much of their offense comes from the individual playmaking capabilities of guards Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro plus the catch-and-shoot potential of Duncan Robinson.
Whereas Boston’s Walker-led ball-screen game, which ranks eighth in PPP (points per possession), gives its offense a second dimension, Miami’s shooting woes on the road make it too reliant on the inside scoring of Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler.
While it is true that injuries and previous transactions make Boston relatively limited at the center position, the Celtics can play small-ball especially against a Heat team that lacks prototypical centers who can use strength and power to dominate inside.
Best Bet: Celtics +1 at -110 with BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Indiana Pacers
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indiana
Key Trend
Indiana is on an 0-14 ATS run in the first game back home from a road trip.
Throughout the season, the Pacers have been an awful team to bet on at home. This trend largely explains why.
As part of this trend, they have lain many clunkers on offense. Most recently, they mustered 93 points against Sacramento’s characteristically abysmal defense.
With leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon still injured — he remains questionable to play with a hamstring injury that has kept him out of every Pacer game in May — the Pacer offense is already hampered. Indiana would really miss Brogdon’s driving prowess and individual ability to create offense.
Dominance Inside
Pacer center Myles Turner had entered Defensive Player of the Year conversations partly because he was the league leader in blocks per game.
With this absence, teams are attacking inside at a vastly higher rate. Since April 19, which is when Turner’s absence began, the Pacers are allowing 41 attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
To put this figure in comparison, this is 3.9 more attempts within five feet of the basket per game than any other team during this span.
With Ben Simmons efficiently driving the basketball, Philadelphia loves to attack inside.
While star Joel Embiid may miss tonight’s game, Dwight Howard still demands a lot of attention inside given his size. He is in fact coming off a 19-point, 14-rebound effort against the Pistons.
Even with Turner, the Pacers lack strong and physical offerings in the interior. But Howard with his 265 pounds accrued 15 rebounds when he started in place of the injured Embiid back on January 31, a game in which the 76ers beat Indiana by nine points despite being underdogs.
Best Bet: 76ers -6.5 at -110 with BetOnline
