Tuesday Pick & Roll

[Marlo]

37-29-2

Dismall card today...capped this one this morning

Sac/NJ U 201.5


I think this line is about 3-5 pts off the total. Sac averaging 101 at home, NJ averaging 96 on the road. When New Jersey has played teams from the West Coast recently 3 of the 5 games have been under the total. Sac has been on a nice run of overs recently, but has played under the total against teams that play similar to NJ, (Chicago, Philly, Washington, Cleveland) But there scoring has increased with Bibby, and Artest getting back into the mix. The main reason for this play for me is what I read into whom they have played, and how they have played them. I can see Sac playing the same tempo as NJ likes to play; control the clock, and grind it out. Last game these two played the total was set @ 187.5 at Jersey where Sac was a 5.5 pt dog, and they won SU 106-101.

I see a slower game, where the first team to score in the mid 90's wins. I like the way Sac-Town is playing right now, and would lean to laying the 5.5 against a New Jersey team that you never know will show up.

In the past 5 meetings, 4 of those totals have gone over the total. Those totals have all been in 187-197 range.


Would lean to Milwaukee +7
Sac -5.5

 

[EHS49]

thanks marlo. i like em both. my leans were mil and sactown as well. might lock em in since that's where you lean. let's get these totals!

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice write-up..looks solid

Cash it

 

[cogenman]

I think Mike Bibby is being inserted into the starting lineup tonight and he usually likes to chuck up some quick early 3's. Hopefully for you they're not falling. But yeah, NJ goes into these scoring droughts alot that should hook u up. Good luck.

 

[bjorks]

I was at the PHX/NETS game Sunday and the Nets outside of Kidd and Jefferson in the 1H looked about as enthused to be there as I was. Game was just awful.

Nets have ZERO inside presence and Amare absolutely dominated them. No scoring, no defense. Now, SAC doesn't have an Amare, but Kidd pushed it the entire game and Jefferson did for the 1H, but that's it. Vince settled for 3's and didn't play a lick of defense the entire game.

I haven't followed SAC that much, but if Bibby is back in the lineup I'd lay the points and lean towards the UNDER as well. Maybe a nice 2 team tease of SAC -1.5 and UNDER 205.5. I just don't see NETS scoring more than 88-92 points and that's being generous IMO.

 

[brewer]

i can see how nj and chicago are likewise on defense. but i dont see it as far as the offensive end goes. chicago likes to get up and down and put up shots (albeit most bad). nj is more of a half-court team from what i see from them.

as far as the play goes. i have no real thoughts.

i plan on getting back on watching the league as a whole this point on in the season when games start meaning much more.

gl with the play.

 

[bjorks]

NJ is all about 1/2 court unless Kidd can get out and run, which they did a few times Sunday. Otherwise it's watch Jefferson go 1-on-1, let Kidd drive or kick out to Vince for a 3. It's ugly...

 

[cogenman]

the last time NJ ran alot was with Kidd running the pt. dishing to Jefferson, Kerry Kittles, or Kenyon Martin for a dunk.

 

[Marlo]

ADDING

Sacramento Kings ML and -5

Right before I went to put this in I noticed the SU, not ATS. I leaned on the Kings originally and it will still be a play for me @ -5, but not nearly as big as I will be playing the ML. Not alot of value -250, but I will flw this trend.



I found this interesting trend listed below, which will warrant a play for me

When Sacramento team Played as Home team as a Favorite - During the month of January - Total is between 200 to 205: The Kings are 17-1 SU in this spot

 

[Marlo]

u 105 sac 2nd half

 

[bjorks]

SAC making a mockery of Nets right now...

 

[Marlo]

my over is going to get slaughtered though, luckily the ML play was a pretty significant amount for me


39-31-2