Tuesday Overnight Discussion

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
Well no girl to worry about tonight and a short card so I thought I'd see if anybody was up for talking about tomorrow's card.

Lines from Pinny..

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=blk-title colSpan=7>NBA Basketball - Tue 3/20</TD></TR><TR class=wht-title bgColor=#16177c><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD noWrap>Spread</TD><TD noWrap>Money Line</TD><TD noWrap>Total Points</TD><TD>More </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 3/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>551</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Denver Nuggets</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1 -102 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 209.5 -108 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2>Props
</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>552</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New Jersey Nets <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1 -108 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 209.5 -102 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 3/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>553</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Cleveland Cavaliers</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -6.5 -103 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 195.5 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>554</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Charlotte Bobcats <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +6.5 -107 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 195.5 -105 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 3/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>555</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Dallas Mavericks</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -7.5 -107 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 191.5 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>556</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New York Knicks <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +7.5 -103 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 191.5 -105 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 3/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>559</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New Orleans Hornets</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Offline </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Offline <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>560</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Memphis Grizzlies <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Offline </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Offline </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 3/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>561</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Los Angeles Clippers</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +7.5 -108 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 186 -103 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:35 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>562</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Chicago Bulls <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -7.5 -102 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 186 -107 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 3/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>563</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Golden State Warriors</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +7.5 -103 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 207 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 06:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>564</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Utah Jazz <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -7.5 -107 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 207 -105 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 3/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>565</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Indiana Pacers</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +9.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 193 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 06:35 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>566</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Houston Rockets <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -9.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 193 -105 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 3/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>567</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Minnesota Timberwolves</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +12.5 -107 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 209.5 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>568</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Phoenix Suns <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -12.5 -103 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 209.5 -105 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 3/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>569</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Washington Wizards</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Offline </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Offline <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>570</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Portland Trail Blazers <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Offline </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Offline </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Warriors +7.5 at Jazz

Whose streak comes to an end here? Warriors on a three game sin streak started with the Dallas game where they ended the mavs streak. Fighting for the last playoff spot in the west and playing there best ball of the year vs the Jazz who have lost all 4 games on the road trip and now return home. The line says Jazz blowout to break the streak and coupled with the warriors road woes on the season it might be correct. Im riding with the Warriors to cover and possibly win.

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Denver +1.
Denver O209.
Kittens +6.5.
Suns U209.
Arenas prop.
 
Main concern about the Jazz game is the Jazz have motivation again. They really had nothing to play for going into that 4 game trip and all of a suddent they are only up a game on the Rockets for HC in the first round. Warriors can't rebound with the Jazz and that will be a problem. Probably stay away unless the spread runs up another point or so.
 
Denver +1 seems like a short line for a streaking team, however, it was against 3 bad teams and Suns horrific defense. Seems like a sucker bet. Not sure what to make of it.

Pacers finally get a win. How do they come out against the Rockets who are putting it all together. I'm guessing the Pacers revert back to the norm.

I think Suns blow out the TWolves but the line screams backdoor cover. I'd be interested in the 1Q or 1H line as the Suns will probably come out like gangbusters after two bad losses and some time to mull over it.

Hibachi vs. Nate McMillan Part Deux. Hmm...
 
u like denver on the road in jersey in the snow in east rutherford lol
 
Killa said:
Denver +1.
Denver O209.
Kittens +6.5.
Suns U209.
Arenas prop.
Click to expand...


Like the Denver plays. It certainly seems that this is the most winnable game on their road trip. Team is definitely clicking right now, but I'm not sure that I want to bet against the Nets right now. Big fan of the over as I can easily see one team getting to 110.

Bobcats at 7 would be even better and I'm sure you'll probably see it. I can see no situation where I'd take the Cavs as 7 point chalk on the road, but another team that I don't think I'm ready to bet against. They've been on a mission both ATS and SU recently. If you could get Sean May or Okafor out there I'd be more willing to entertain a Bobcats bet, but without both these guys could lose the rebounding battle by 20 tomorrow night.

Haven't looked at the Suns game much.

Tell me more about Arenas.

Also Zach Randolph is OUT on Tuesday.
 
JPicks said:
Like the Denver plays. It certainly seems that this is the most winnable game on their road trip. Team is definitely clicking right now, but I'm not sure that I want to bet against the Nets right now. Big fan of the over as I can easily see one team getting to 110.

Bobcats at 7 would be even better and I'm sure you'll probably see it. I can see no situation where I'd take the Cavs as 7 point chalk on the road, but another team that I don't think I'm ready to bet against. They've been on a mission both ATS and SU recently. If you could get Sean May or Okafor out there I'd be more willing to entertain a Bobcats bet, but without both these guys could lose the rebounding battle by 20 tomorrow night.

Haven't looked at the Suns game much.

Tell me more about Arenas.

Also Zach Randolph is OUT on Tuesday.
Click to expand...
Well Arenas didn't get his 50 that he vowed against Nate McMillan last time. In fact he wasn't even close. Methinks you'll see a much better performance this time. I'm scared of that prop though cuz it might be a sucker just like last time. I got completely fooled by it.
 
JP- You know what Cleveland has 24 hours after Charlotte right?

Arenas..... Check his blog on NBA.com. He basically said he plans on shooting a million shots. This vendetta has not gone away. He might kill himself if he doesn't torch this team tomorrow.
 
Killa said:
JP- You know what Cleveland has 24 hours after Charlotte right?

Arenas..... Check his blog on NBA.com. He basically said he plans on shooting a million shots. This vendetta has not gone away. He might kill himself if he doesn't torch this team tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Good point with the Cavs. 1 game road trip to Charlotte and turn around the next day for a big home game against the Mavs. Same goes for the Mavs. Play at MSG one night and quick turnaround to Cle.
 
Might be on the Suns, 1st Q, 1st H, whole game. They've lost 2 embarassing ones in a row, coupled with a little revenge on Minny as the team that beat them on their streak. Already played Denver +1.5, may go for a middle. I'm staying away from my Warriors, except for maybe a small ML play just to cheer on. Already played a 7 pt teaser: feel like a sucker for it, but without games to bet on today, was bored and needed to click thinigs: Dallas -1, Houston -3, Phoenix -6.
 
Ya Dallas is definitely going to be a distraction for the Cavs. I still can't figure out how the Kitties are going to rebound the ball. I honestly think the Cavs could not show up and still get an eight point victory.

Arenas killed so many people last time on that prop bet that I suppose it'll keep many away this time. I wasn't involved last time, but maybe I'll bite this time around. We'll see what the forums have to say about it tomorrow. What was the exact # on the prop last time out? I'm sure Arenas is looking for some pub after Kobe has stole the show last week with b2b 50+ performances.
 
hmm as far as cleveland/Dallas, I'm probably gonna be on Cleveland. You think I should take it once it comes out, or wait it out, in other words: how do you see this line moving?
 
ATLHawksBandwagon said:
Arenas pretty much guaranteed 50 again saying, ""I knew after I said that [first prediction] that they'd double me," he says "so I came out not too aggressive and got my teammates involved. It was part of my plan. But when we go up to their place, they won't be expecting it, and they won't double me. That's when I'm really planning on dropping 50." http://blog.washingtonpost.com/dcsportsbog/2007/02/gilbert_makes_another_50point.html
Click to expand...
How can you not like Gilbert Arenas. Dude is hilarious.
 
albyman32 said:
Good point with the Cavs. 1 game road trip to Charlotte and turn around the next day for a big home game against the Mavs. Same goes for the Mavs. Play at MSG one night and quick turnaround to Cle.
Click to expand...


Now is the time to fade the Mavs if you have the balls in my opinion. The Mavs could use a deep bench tomorrow in the 1st game of a 4th in 5. Like the knicks at +8.5 or better.
 
Suns under 209 looks golden. Suns lost big by allowing Denver to score stupidly, and Garnett said after last loss to suns thast he thinks they shoulda slowed it down.
 
rookie333 said:
hmm as far as cleveland/Dallas, I'm probably gonna be on Cleveland. You think I should take it once it comes out, or wait it out, in other words: how do you see this line moving?
Click to expand...


With all my thoughts being about how I think Cleveland will easily win that game their is no way that I'm laying 7 points on the road with that look ahead. That said I really have no idea where the line will end up. I'm guessing it'll be closer to 5.5 than 7.5 when it's all said and done.
 
I think the next night is the best time to fade Dallas JP. LeBron will be possessed that game.
 
JPicks said:
With all my thoughts being about how I think Cleveland will easily win that game their is no way that I'm laying 7 points on the road with that look ahead. That said I really have no idea where the line will end up. I'm guessing it'll be closer to 5.5 than 7.5 when it's all said and done.
Click to expand...

I mean for the Dallas game.I think Cleveland takes Dallas out, but do you htink I should bet on them 2m around 6EST when the line comes out, or should I wait. Where do you see the line moving, or do you see more money gonna be on, Dallas or Cleveland?
 
That's even harder for me to say. Alot will depend on the line. I'm not the greatest at predicting lines, but I'd think you'll see Dallas open as a small favorite. I really don't feel good about telling you which way I think the line will move as I'd be guessing at best.
 
Apparently the Wiz are only -1.5 or 2 .. I can't bet it yet, I'm going to jump ASAP. Randolph is out for personal reasons, the Blazers are on a 4 game losing streak anyway, Wiz revenge, Arenas revenge, he might score 50, start of a huge road trip, ETC ETC .. line will skyrocket I assume, does anyone see it anywhere?? I just saw it on scoresandodds.com.
 
Killa said:
I think the next night is the best time to fade Dallas JP. LeBron will be possessed that game.
Click to expand...

I was thinking more of fading the Mavs at every possible stop along the trip as long as they're still getting asked to cover -7 and -8's. They've played 3 tough games over the last 5 days and had to earn each of their victories as well as the loss to Phoenix. As long as they are missing Devean George and Greg Buckner this team is going to run out of gas. On top of those 3 games they have to go out and play a 4 in 5 on the road. To make matters worse look at who they are playing. The Knicks are always dangerous at home, 8-2 SU last 10, and should be able to stay competitive with the Mavs. The Cavs are the Cavs at home and those games will be followed up with the Celtics and Hawks. Obviously two bottom feeders, but the Hawks in particular have shown they still have quite a bit of life at home. Just ask the Kings tonight.

Long story short I see this being a more difficult road trip than most expect for the Mavs.
 
ATLHawksBandwagon said:
Apparently the Wiz are only -1.5 or 2 .. I can't bet it yet, I'm going to jump ASAP. Randolph is out for personal reasons, the Blazers are on a 4 game losing streak anyway, Wiz revenge, Arenas revenge, he might score 50, start of a huge road trip, ETC ETC .. line will skyrocket I assume, does anyone see it anywhere?? I just saw it on scoresandodds.com.
Click to expand...
its off at most books
 
JPicks said:
I was thinking more of fading the Mavs at every possible stop along the trip as long as they're still getting asked to cover -7 and -8's. They've played 3 tough games over the last 5 days and had to earn each of their victories as well as the loss to Phoenix. As long as they are missing Devean George and Greg Buckner this team is going to run out of gas. On top of those 3 games they have to go out and play a 4 in 5 on the road. To make matters worse look at who they are playing. The Knicks are always dangerous at home, 8-2 SU last 10, and should be able to stay competitive with the Mavs. The Cavs are the Cavs at home and those games will be followed up with the Celtics and Hawks. Obviously two bottom feeders, but the Hawks in particular have shown they still have quite a bit of life at home. Just ask the Kings tonight.

Long story short I see this being a more difficult road trip than most expect for the Mavs.
Click to expand...
JPicks makes good points. Mavs are missing Buckner and George and it has definitely mattered lately. On top of that, they have fits against young athletic teams. Toronto, GS, Celts to name a few. However, they can usually pull out the wins thanks to veteran discipline. My friend and I are both hardcore Mavs fans and we have a phrase "Mavs are playing like aids" for whenver they have their sluggish games. We've gotten pretty good at identifying when these games are gonna happen. Anyways, fwiw, we've already pointed out tomorrow night as an AIDs game for the Mavs.
 
Cavs beat the Mavs tomorrow... I think... (WED)... that's ALOT of points to lay on the road to the Knicks... kind of think the Mavs can cover that number though with how limited the Knicks bench has been... they're basically playing eight guys and seem to follow up good wins with bad losses... too many points though.

Denver around PK? Wow... the thing I like here is how limited the Nets are inside... plus the Nets seem to get worked by west coast teams... Denver riding high off a big win vs. PHO which has hurt some of the value in this one... AI always played the Nets will in Philly... and expect him and Melo to have great games... Jefferson still not 100% and without Robinson the Nets have Moore and Collins... I'll take Camby over those two any day.
 
rookie,

I would wait if I were you.... You got AIM.. if your down to ever discuss ball hit me up with your SN by msging me here on CTG... we usually play similar plays and think alike
 
Being this line just came out we have an odd trend / situation. The Memphis Grizzlies are now 17-50 on the season after defeating the Bulls this weekend. Its unimaginable but true that all season long MEMPHIS has NOT won 2 games in a row. Following each of the 17 SU wins they have lost SU. Now you get the spread in the game as NO Hornets -1 and they are 8-10 SU on B2B and they rested alot tonite. Obviously a -1 suggests that we are basically picking up the SU winner in the game and MEM hasnt won two games in arow SU all year......food for thought!
 
Dallas las 15 road games 7-8 ats. They have failed to cover last 4 vs Cleveland so they Will win at Knicks but could easily flunk the cover as their best went long minutes last game. A little tricky because in that matchup we have 2 teams that both do best in the second half.
 
I agree... although this may be a trap Nut. Grizz were riding high and playing dominant ball vs. the Bulls for 45 mins... and seem to be playing well..

NOK on the other hand... this is a b2b and Paul probably wont respond well... he got some rest tonight but he still had to log solid mins... dont know if id bet on pargo/jackson ... this team lacks consistent offense
 
I dont really believe in traps. I understand what you mean though. The truth is last time they played in memphis the Hornets were favored by -1 in a home and home matchup. So the line isnt odd by any stretch of the imagination. It is where it should be.

With dallas actually hoped for a little higher then 7.5 like 8.5 or better cause think Suns were like 9 when they were flying high earlier this season. Dal just was -5.5 in DETas well. Have a small lean towards NYK cause its a minor sandwich spot. The reality is neither team has a bench .
 
Balkman will be the X factor in the Knick game in my opinion. If Isiah uses him to defend Dirk or J.Howard his defense will bother them.
 
HOU is on fire right now and under the radar for the books... should cruise early vs. the Pacers 1Q and 1H before giving up a moose late
 
I think the Nuggets are a bad bet tonight at NJ. I think they're a good bet at Chicago later this week.
 
My early leans :

NJN -1 (probably the strongest) think it should be about -2.5 here.
Under 195.5 Cle
NYK +7.5 (small lean)
Hornets -1
Clippers +7.5
Utah -7.5 / -8
Wash -2 (small lean) maybe under 202

Good Luck and good nite. The bold are my 3 strongest at this time....figure this crap out tmrw
 
76ers should be considered a forced bet. Only debate at this point is how many ways to play them. GL
 
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