Tuesday Oct 30

SF_capper

CTG addict
Plays
Portland +13.5- 1 unit :wacka wacka:
Portland/San Antonio OVER 190- 3 units :wacka wacka:
2nd H Port/SAS UNDER 95- 1 unit push: late line punished me
Utah +1- 4 units :wacka wacka:
Lakers +5.5- 2 units :wacka wacka:
2nd H Utah/GSW OVER 105 (-120)- 1 unit :hang:
2nd H LAL/Hou UNDER 99 (-120)- 2 units :hairout:

4-2
+6.4 units

oh baby, NBA is back

Portland +12.5 @ San Antonio

San Antonio getting their rings- which usually set up a nice oppotunity for coming out flat. However, if this team comes out flat, I think it will be on the defensive end. Always feeling a bit cocky getting rings, they often don't do the hard work stuff- defense. I know this SA team is disciplined as hell, but human nature is let-down. Portland has a new philosophy- try to average 100 pts/game and allow 95. I truly see them getting half of that. I can see them averaging 100 pts a game with Roy and Aldridge taking leader roles on this young scrappy team, and Webster looking really good. This is a nice scrappy group with Jack at PG as well and will be able to put up pts this yr. Overall, I see a mini letdown by the champs in allowing Portland maybe 95 pts. Lean Portland and over
prediction: SA 101-94

other games in a bit

overall this yr, I'm looking for a great yr. Came up big last yr, but choked a lot of it away betting too big in the playoffs. Looking to be more disciplined this yr. I make a lot of plays as that's just my style. Some people play 1 every 2 days, some people play 3/4 of the card. as long as you're winning, there is nothing wrong with how you play, the only thing that matters is the bottom line- final +/-. I'm looking to be +.

goal: 100,000 by the end of the season (gotta aim high, to hit big)

NBA YTD: 0-0
 
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Utah Jazz +3.5 @ (my) GSW

this line really surprised me. I was expecting Jazz -2-3, in which I'd take my Warriors in a flier, but this line is a wower. Warriors couldn't beat this team all in the playoffs (save game 3 and that poster) and that was with Jrich and Steven Jackson. With Pietrus playing the starting PF, he'll be guarding, along with the help D, Carlos Boozer. I'm not sure of Boozer's status (100%?), but he should handle Pietrus. I hate betting against playoff revenge, as I feel my warriors were moping for a couple weeks after they got knocked out of the playoffs, thinking of all the things they could've done to take better advantage of this Utah team that knocked them out, and they were probably just looking forward to this game as revenge, but the value is no doubt with Utah here. With the changes the Warriors made, I don't believe (:hang:) that we can hang with this fundamentally sound Utah squad. I've said it before, we just struggle with fundamentally sound basketball teams as they outrebound us, and shred us for layups. That said, the arena will be crazy, but then again it also was in game 4, so...
lean Utah
prediction: Utah 110- 105
(hopefully GSW 111- 110)
 
thanks guys

Houston Rockets -4.5 @ LA Lakers

Gonna stay off this game at first. I had this line at Houston -3, but even with a huge discrepency, I probably wouldn't touch this one. Too many question marks. Only thing that would make me play would be like a Kobe out announcement, in which I would take value with Lakers +7-8. I probably will not bet the Lakers much this yr, especially not early. They have too many issues in many ways. Don't trust the role players yet, and don't know how Kobe will play. IMO he'll play poorly this game, but not enough to make me play Houston at this line. Houston is still working on this offense, which will be very fun to watch and bet on soon. Can't wait to see Yao getting like 4.5 assists a game thru the system, and watching Franchise and Tmac running the floor together. Looking to bet Houston and overs often this season, but not quite yet. Will be very informative to watch this game though. It'll teach us a lot- an estimate of where this Houston offense is in the development process, and how Kobe/Lakers respond to everything. Lean- none. Maybe watch and play HT
Prediction: 97-93
 
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