SF_capper
CTG addict
Atlanta at Toronto
Seems odd to say, but really just two teams going opposite directions. Yes Atlanta is fighting for their 1st rd HCA and Toronto is done, but from the standpoint of looking at these teams from what they’ve done in the past 2 weeks, Toronto is the better squad and is actually playing up to their potential. From the motivational side, hard to see how Toronto has an edge. Will they start resting Calderon/Bosh to watch the young talent? That would be my worry backing Toronto. However- a look at Atlanta lately: L at Cleveland, W vs Minny, L vs SA, L vs Boston, W vs LA (imo more of a shit performance by lA than great ATL performance), L @ Philly, L @ Boston, L vs Orlando: 1-5 ATS last 6. This is making me think their 7-0 run, 9-0 ATS right before that run was a fluke/product of their schedule more than anything. Maybe Marvin Williams is missed. Both of these teams feed off confidence and momentum, and right now Toronto has it. Their home loss on Sunday was more just NY hitting +50% from 3 in the backend of a home n home and doesn’t reflect too badly on Toronto imo. May get a small play on Toronto
Philly @ Charlotte
Need some help on this one. Philly shittin the bed at NJ showed me they do not care about the 5th seed. Weird, but seemingly true. JPicks made a great point and that is that looking at Phillys remaining schedule, they really cant expect to do well. Maybe after clinching the playoffs, they are satisfied and figured itd be too difficult to keep that 5th seed. On the other side, Charlotte with the Detroit loss is done for the season. Its hard for me to see this team handle this 0-3 run that has ended their season and gotta imagine they just fold soon if they havnt already. Both teams I do not see trying too hard. Unless I can get some quotes or something of the players showing that they truly want this game, I probably lay off
New Orleans @ Miami
New Orleans in the ol’ “wounded bear” spot ala: Handy. This is when you have a fave lose 2 straight SU as faves and are dogs next. It is essentially a buy low pick where lines gets overadjusted from recent struggles which is exactly the spot here. Both teams tying for position in playoffs. I like fading Miami off a win (15-23-2 ATS this yr, 4-9-1 off a DD W) and this should be a decent spot. The wounded bear spot for NOLA and Miami off a W make it a decent play for me. Not the greatest spot for Miami schedule wise either- mini road trip, home for a game, then off to Boston. Lots of days rest between makes the schedule part not a huge factor, but still one regardless. Also, I’m starting to think the DWill owns CP3 talk really pisses chris paul off. Last 2 years off a loss to Utah, New Orleans is 5-0. Only loss they had after Utah game was when they beat them last yr.
San Antonio @ OKC
writeup in discussion thread although things vastly change with Manu out for the season. Just a pass for me, and have to see the line
Portland @ Memphis
Memphis with real momentum and I’m frankly surprised it hasn’t happened earlier. This is a good young team with lots of talent. Their confidence should be up and probably do not forget the 20 pt loss that this same Portland team handed them just one week ago. Memphis probably will try hard to avoid its 4th loss to the same team in about a month. Portland should look past this Memphis team that they just owned to a game at San Antonio the next night- way bigger for them in terms of playoff positioning and setting themselves as part of the league’s elite. Gonna try to avoid getting heavily invested in Memphis full game, maybe go 1 1st H, 1 2nd Q, 1 full game. That sounds like that’ll work for me
Orlando @ Houston
I love this matchup for Houston. Houston should, similarly to last game, play smallish to matchup with Orlando here, and should do so very well imo. Yao on Dwight, Artest on Shard, Battier on Hedo, Wafer on Lee, Brooks on Alston. Probably a small play on Houston just for the matchups that I love. There should not be any worry about alston angered toward Houston because (correct me if I’m wrong,) but I do not think there was any malice in the trade. Brooks if anything should be trying to prove that Houston did not mess up by showing faith in him and making him the starter. Just a bet on who I think is the better team with the better matchup on a line that does not really reflect that
New York @ Chicago
Would love Chicago way more if NY games weren’t dominated by the dog: I believe the underdog is 18-2 in NY’s last 20 games. Chicago with the playoff motivation to do well here while NY really doesn’t have much to play for. Toronto, Chicago, NY in 4 days isn’t fun esp for the complacent group that is the Knicks, so I can see a stinker here for NY to prep for their home 4/5 vs Detroit. I had this one pegged for an extra large bet, and I’m trying to remember why. I guess its just a feel more than anything that NY will get completely blown out. Chicago has been superb at home and this one is big for playoff seedings.
LAL @ Sacramento
Probably no play for me. LA needs this game for HCA race, but they aren’t exactly playing their best ball, esp on the road. Small lean to the pts, but considering that I don’t see Sac winning, its kinda hard. Probably a pass for me
Seems odd to say, but really just two teams going opposite directions. Yes Atlanta is fighting for their 1st rd HCA and Toronto is done, but from the standpoint of looking at these teams from what they’ve done in the past 2 weeks, Toronto is the better squad and is actually playing up to their potential. From the motivational side, hard to see how Toronto has an edge. Will they start resting Calderon/Bosh to watch the young talent? That would be my worry backing Toronto. However- a look at Atlanta lately: L at Cleveland, W vs Minny, L vs SA, L vs Boston, W vs LA (imo more of a shit performance by lA than great ATL performance), L @ Philly, L @ Boston, L vs Orlando: 1-5 ATS last 6. This is making me think their 7-0 run, 9-0 ATS right before that run was a fluke/product of their schedule more than anything. Maybe Marvin Williams is missed. Both of these teams feed off confidence and momentum, and right now Toronto has it. Their home loss on Sunday was more just NY hitting +50% from 3 in the backend of a home n home and doesn’t reflect too badly on Toronto imo. May get a small play on Toronto
Philly @ Charlotte
Need some help on this one. Philly shittin the bed at NJ showed me they do not care about the 5th seed. Weird, but seemingly true. JPicks made a great point and that is that looking at Phillys remaining schedule, they really cant expect to do well. Maybe after clinching the playoffs, they are satisfied and figured itd be too difficult to keep that 5th seed. On the other side, Charlotte with the Detroit loss is done for the season. Its hard for me to see this team handle this 0-3 run that has ended their season and gotta imagine they just fold soon if they havnt already. Both teams I do not see trying too hard. Unless I can get some quotes or something of the players showing that they truly want this game, I probably lay off
New Orleans @ Miami
New Orleans in the ol’ “wounded bear” spot ala: Handy. This is when you have a fave lose 2 straight SU as faves and are dogs next. It is essentially a buy low pick where lines gets overadjusted from recent struggles which is exactly the spot here. Both teams tying for position in playoffs. I like fading Miami off a win (15-23-2 ATS this yr, 4-9-1 off a DD W) and this should be a decent spot. The wounded bear spot for NOLA and Miami off a W make it a decent play for me. Not the greatest spot for Miami schedule wise either- mini road trip, home for a game, then off to Boston. Lots of days rest between makes the schedule part not a huge factor, but still one regardless. Also, I’m starting to think the DWill owns CP3 talk really pisses chris paul off. Last 2 years off a loss to Utah, New Orleans is 5-0. Only loss they had after Utah game was when they beat them last yr.
San Antonio @ OKC
writeup in discussion thread although things vastly change with Manu out for the season. Just a pass for me, and have to see the line
Portland @ Memphis
Memphis with real momentum and I’m frankly surprised it hasn’t happened earlier. This is a good young team with lots of talent. Their confidence should be up and probably do not forget the 20 pt loss that this same Portland team handed them just one week ago. Memphis probably will try hard to avoid its 4th loss to the same team in about a month. Portland should look past this Memphis team that they just owned to a game at San Antonio the next night- way bigger for them in terms of playoff positioning and setting themselves as part of the league’s elite. Gonna try to avoid getting heavily invested in Memphis full game, maybe go 1 1st H, 1 2nd Q, 1 full game. That sounds like that’ll work for me
Orlando @ Houston
I love this matchup for Houston. Houston should, similarly to last game, play smallish to matchup with Orlando here, and should do so very well imo. Yao on Dwight, Artest on Shard, Battier on Hedo, Wafer on Lee, Brooks on Alston. Probably a small play on Houston just for the matchups that I love. There should not be any worry about alston angered toward Houston because (correct me if I’m wrong,) but I do not think there was any malice in the trade. Brooks if anything should be trying to prove that Houston did not mess up by showing faith in him and making him the starter. Just a bet on who I think is the better team with the better matchup on a line that does not really reflect that
New York @ Chicago
Would love Chicago way more if NY games weren’t dominated by the dog: I believe the underdog is 18-2 in NY’s last 20 games. Chicago with the playoff motivation to do well here while NY really doesn’t have much to play for. Toronto, Chicago, NY in 4 days isn’t fun esp for the complacent group that is the Knicks, so I can see a stinker here for NY to prep for their home 4/5 vs Detroit. I had this one pegged for an extra large bet, and I’m trying to remember why. I guess its just a feel more than anything that NY will get completely blown out. Chicago has been superb at home and this one is big for playoff seedings.
LAL @ Sacramento
Probably no play for me. LA needs this game for HCA race, but they aren’t exactly playing their best ball, esp on the road. Small lean to the pts, but considering that I don’t see Sac winning, its kinda hard. Probably a pass for me
