SF_capper
CTG addict
I have a really fucked up sleep schedule. woke up at 630PM yesterday and still havnt slept (its 630AM right now and I have class from 930-630 2m so doubt I sleep til 7) being up has me capping. went 1-2 yesterday, winning my favorite bet in Philly
Plays
Cleveland -6.5 L
2nd H Cleveland -4 (-115) L
New Jersey +5.5 (-105) L
Denver -1.5 (-105) W
Toronto -1 W
Chicago -2/-3 (-115)- 1 2/3 units W
1st H OKC +6 (-105)/+7- tot 1 2/3 units L
Oklahoma City +14/+13.5- total 1 2/3 units W
2nd H Golden State -3 (-105)- 2 units W
San Antonio @ New Jersey
power rating of SA -5.5. I like NJ in this spot if someone can convince me Carter is healthy. I'm reading he is probable tonight. Not sure if I should go full game or 1st H, so maybe some trends guys can help me on that one. SA off a huge win at Boston and have a flight to toronto 2m. They have owned NJ lately, and both teams know it. NJ however, has been playing exellent ball lately with a 4 game win streak @ Philly, vs milwaukee, at wash, vs denver. they should be motivated to extreme for this one because 1) off the big blowout @ Orlando (VC was out) 2) revenge over SA for the beating they get 3) last game before the all star break for them wanting to head into the break on a positive note. The close loss @ SA should give them confidence that they can win. Parker doesnt have a speed advantage for once, and Brook may try to play his heart out vs Duncan. Harris is finally out of his midseason funk, and brook lopez is playing amazingly. Just need Carter a go and I think I'll be on this
Cleveland @ Indiana
Gonna be on Cleveland here. I hate betting against Indiana as a home dog as they really can b eat any team in the league at home and is kind of my sleeper to make the 8th spot, but plain and simple in my mind is Cleveland off a loss which I believe they're still undefeated ATS in this situation. Lebron had a shit game, and should bounceback both offensively and defensively on Granger. No dunleavy is a lot bigger than people realize. My power rating has this at Cleveland -6, but I'm pretty sure we see higher, as my rating doesnt take into acct cleveland off a loss or that Dunleavy is out yet. Think I might have to lay 8
Denver @ Miami
Denver off that blowout is reason enough for me to play them. 11-5 ATS off a loss, 7-2 off a DD loss. Hoping they dont try to save some for Orlando 2m as they cannot win there. PR has this Denver -1.
Toronto @ Minnesota
JP gives a very nice writeup on this one in the discussion threa dand this is very much a tail. My power rating for this game is kinda messed up with recent injuries and bosh and al jeff out, but for sure toronto -3 is NOT value. neither is -1, but eh what can you do. From a basketball standpoint, I do think Toronto should win this before losing 2m. Craig Smith is a small name but pretty important to Minnesota. Minnesota probably still shocked for their season, and should look to the all-star break as a getaway. They could play the games of their livews, but I doubt it. Don't like laying with Toronto, but its only 1 so eh. Would not play this at 2.5 that it is now.
Detroit @ Chicago
My line is Chicago -3 so about right. I hate to admit it as I've been talking off Chicago for awhile, but they're proving me wrong and competing. I'm surprised as they dont really have an inside threat and is a jump shooting team, but I guess Derrick rose has this team goin in the right direction. Should be interesting to see who they get for Hughes as this team can be real good with a scorer inside. Gooden still out but they're impressing me. 1st game back from a roadie which as BC's thread shouldn't be too much of a worry. Chicago always owns Detroit probably because Detroit doesn't have that inside presence to work to Chicago's weakness. Also, Chicago attacks the O-boards hard- something detroit is always weak to.
OKC @ LAL
Amazing schedule spot and jsut an overall almost perfect spot for OKC here. Lakers off great road trip winning both at boston and at cleveland. Come home for a day only to fly back out to utah 2m then smooth into the AS break. PR has this LA -13, but I put an asterick on it to play OKC getting lotta pts as they just love to keep scores close. Not much more to say here: LA off HUGE wins, and now home in a bad schedule spot vs a team they know they can beat.
not interested in Atlanta/Wash. kinda think Sac keeps it close esp with terry out, but need more reasoning to bet it. Dont like GS off huge wins and beating Utah is huge, but like GS with revenge and the clinic NY put up on us is means for revenge. yup thoughts?
Plays
Cleveland -6.5 L
2nd H Cleveland -4 (-115) L
New Jersey +5.5 (-105) L
Denver -1.5 (-105) W
Toronto -1 W
Chicago -2/-3 (-115)- 1 2/3 units W
1st H OKC +6 (-105)/+7- tot 1 2/3 units L
Oklahoma City +14/+13.5- total 1 2/3 units W
2nd H Golden State -3 (-105)- 2 units W
San Antonio @ New Jersey
power rating of SA -5.5. I like NJ in this spot if someone can convince me Carter is healthy. I'm reading he is probable tonight. Not sure if I should go full game or 1st H, so maybe some trends guys can help me on that one. SA off a huge win at Boston and have a flight to toronto 2m. They have owned NJ lately, and both teams know it. NJ however, has been playing exellent ball lately with a 4 game win streak @ Philly, vs milwaukee, at wash, vs denver. they should be motivated to extreme for this one because 1) off the big blowout @ Orlando (VC was out) 2) revenge over SA for the beating they get 3) last game before the all star break for them wanting to head into the break on a positive note. The close loss @ SA should give them confidence that they can win. Parker doesnt have a speed advantage for once, and Brook may try to play his heart out vs Duncan. Harris is finally out of his midseason funk, and brook lopez is playing amazingly. Just need Carter a go and I think I'll be on this
Cleveland @ Indiana
Gonna be on Cleveland here. I hate betting against Indiana as a home dog as they really can b eat any team in the league at home and is kind of my sleeper to make the 8th spot, but plain and simple in my mind is Cleveland off a loss which I believe they're still undefeated ATS in this situation. Lebron had a shit game, and should bounceback both offensively and defensively on Granger. No dunleavy is a lot bigger than people realize. My power rating has this at Cleveland -6, but I'm pretty sure we see higher, as my rating doesnt take into acct cleveland off a loss or that Dunleavy is out yet. Think I might have to lay 8
Denver @ Miami
Denver off that blowout is reason enough for me to play them. 11-5 ATS off a loss, 7-2 off a DD loss. Hoping they dont try to save some for Orlando 2m as they cannot win there. PR has this Denver -1.
Toronto @ Minnesota
JP gives a very nice writeup on this one in the discussion threa dand this is very much a tail. My power rating for this game is kinda messed up with recent injuries and bosh and al jeff out, but for sure toronto -3 is NOT value. neither is -1, but eh what can you do. From a basketball standpoint, I do think Toronto should win this before losing 2m. Craig Smith is a small name but pretty important to Minnesota. Minnesota probably still shocked for their season, and should look to the all-star break as a getaway. They could play the games of their livews, but I doubt it. Don't like laying with Toronto, but its only 1 so eh. Would not play this at 2.5 that it is now.
Detroit @ Chicago
My line is Chicago -3 so about right. I hate to admit it as I've been talking off Chicago for awhile, but they're proving me wrong and competing. I'm surprised as they dont really have an inside threat and is a jump shooting team, but I guess Derrick rose has this team goin in the right direction. Should be interesting to see who they get for Hughes as this team can be real good with a scorer inside. Gooden still out but they're impressing me. 1st game back from a roadie which as BC's thread shouldn't be too much of a worry. Chicago always owns Detroit probably because Detroit doesn't have that inside presence to work to Chicago's weakness. Also, Chicago attacks the O-boards hard- something detroit is always weak to.
OKC @ LAL
Amazing schedule spot and jsut an overall almost perfect spot for OKC here. Lakers off great road trip winning both at boston and at cleveland. Come home for a day only to fly back out to utah 2m then smooth into the AS break. PR has this LA -13, but I put an asterick on it to play OKC getting lotta pts as they just love to keep scores close. Not much more to say here: LA off HUGE wins, and now home in a bad schedule spot vs a team they know they can beat.
not interested in Atlanta/Wash. kinda think Sac keeps it close esp with terry out, but need more reasoning to bet it. Dont like GS off huge wins and beating Utah is huge, but like GS with revenge and the clinic NY put up on us is means for revenge. yup thoughts?
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Indiana as a home dog this year 6-1-1
