Small Card, Big Value in Tuesday’s Nations League Matches
Tuesday’s slate of Nations League matches offers little action. But among the few matches, there are a lot of opportunities for bettors to profit.
Finland vs. Estonia (2:45 ET)
In deciding whether to lay chalk with a team, I want to make sure that the favorite is showing strong form, that the underdog is worth fading, and that the home team has some scoring quality with experience against higher competition. Finland meets all three criteria. They’ve held their last five opponents at home to nil, including Estonia in 2017. Conversely, Estonia is winless in its last five away matches, scoring zero goals in its last three. Finland has reliable scoring quality in Teemu Pukki, who scored 17 goals for Danish club Brondby before signing with Norwich City in the English second division. He started off Finland’s Nations League opener with a solid performance, achieving one goal and hitting the woodwork on a near miss.
Hungary vs Greece (2:45 ET)
I think we see few goals here. The „under“ at 2.5 is pricey, but you can parlay it with „Draw or Greece“ or take the „under“ at 1.5 at plus odds at Bet365. Whether at home or away, Hungary is showing poor form. It has failed to win its last five matches and lost all three of its home friendlies in 2018, including losses to Kazakhstan and Scotland. Hungary’s biggest problem has been to find a reliable scorer. It has produced two goals in its last four matches. Hungary’s most prolific and probably most involved player is Adam Szalai. He didn’t look good in his opener, managing to get just one shot on target, which was in the center of goal.
No matter who manages it, Greece has been known historically to be defensive-minded. They’ve scored two goals in their past four matches, but only conceded three—all against World Cup participants. Greece has taken care of business away from home, as long as it was facing a lower-quality team. In its last five away matches against teams that didn’t make the World Cup, Greece won four of those and drew the other.
San Marino vs Luxembourg (2:45 ET)
San Marino, just like Gibraltar, is one of those teams that I automatically look to fade. The cost of doing so is pricey, so I recommend taking Luxembourg with the handicap (-2) at Bet365 at a very solid +162 odds. On the one hand, San Marino doesn’t have the quality to score, producing one goal in its past five matches. That one match came with 10 minutes to go in a match against Azerbaijan where San Marino had fallen behind 5-0. On the other hand, San Marino lacks the quality to defend and it has lost three matches in a row by at least five goals.
Luxembourg isn’t a perennial powerhouse by any means, but it does consistently take care of these lower-quality punching bags, beating Malta and Moldova in 2018 friendlies by combined five goals.
Moldova vs Belarus (2:45 ET)
The main difference here is that one team, Belarus, has meaningful scoring talent while Moldova doesn’t. Belarus is extremely attractive at +120 because you can count on them to score. Look for Dzyanis Laptsew, who has eight goals in 16 league matches so far for Shakhtyor. His teammate Yuri Kovalev also scored as a substitute in Belarus’ 5-0 opening romp of San Marino. Both players also have international club experience.
On the flip side, Moldova has managed just one goal in its last six matches despite facing mostly lower-tiered competition like Luxembourg and Armenia.
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Austria (2:45)
The value with the road side is too good to pass up. I can’t see them losing, so take „Austria or draw,“ which Bet365 offers at -167 odds. You can simply reduce your wager a tad or parlay it if you dislike that amount of chalk. Austria has won four out of its past five, the one loss coming against Brazil. It is also undefeated in four of its past five road fixtures against teams that didn’t play in the World Cup. The one loss came at Wales, which nearly made the World Cup and impressed everybody in the 2016 Euro Cup. That match was very even in terms of shots on target and possession. Austria looked strong in its 2-0 friendly win against upstart Sweden. The Austrians are led by David Alaba, who plays for Germany’s top club Bayern Munich, and Marko Arnautovic, who has had a strong start in the Premiere League so far with two goals in four matches for West Ham and produced three goals in three 2018 international friendlies for Austria.
The Bosnians won their opener against Northern Ireland. Despite scoring two goals, it was apparent that they struggled on offense, relying on a goal against the run of play and on a defensive mess-up from Northern Ireland. They took 15 minutes to even enter Northern Ireland’s box and managed only 36 percent possession in the match. Whereas Austria has shown a high ceiling by beating Germany, Russia, and Sweden in 2018 friendlies, Bosnia indicated a low floor by only drawing against Montenegro in May. For all of its reputation as a strong home side, it has failed to win three home matches in a row—drawing Montenegro and Greece— with its last win coming against Gibraltar.
Tuesday’s slate of Nations League matches offers little action. But among the few matches, there are a lot of opportunities for bettors to profit.
Finland vs. Estonia (2:45 ET)
In deciding whether to lay chalk with a team, I want to make sure that the favorite is showing strong form, that the underdog is worth fading, and that the home team has some scoring quality with experience against higher competition. Finland meets all three criteria. They’ve held their last five opponents at home to nil, including Estonia in 2017. Conversely, Estonia is winless in its last five away matches, scoring zero goals in its last three. Finland has reliable scoring quality in Teemu Pukki, who scored 17 goals for Danish club Brondby before signing with Norwich City in the English second division. He started off Finland’s Nations League opener with a solid performance, achieving one goal and hitting the woodwork on a near miss.
Hungary vs Greece (2:45 ET)
I think we see few goals here. The „under“ at 2.5 is pricey, but you can parlay it with „Draw or Greece“ or take the „under“ at 1.5 at plus odds at Bet365. Whether at home or away, Hungary is showing poor form. It has failed to win its last five matches and lost all three of its home friendlies in 2018, including losses to Kazakhstan and Scotland. Hungary’s biggest problem has been to find a reliable scorer. It has produced two goals in its last four matches. Hungary’s most prolific and probably most involved player is Adam Szalai. He didn’t look good in his opener, managing to get just one shot on target, which was in the center of goal.
No matter who manages it, Greece has been known historically to be defensive-minded. They’ve scored two goals in their past four matches, but only conceded three—all against World Cup participants. Greece has taken care of business away from home, as long as it was facing a lower-quality team. In its last five away matches against teams that didn’t make the World Cup, Greece won four of those and drew the other.
San Marino vs Luxembourg (2:45 ET)
San Marino, just like Gibraltar, is one of those teams that I automatically look to fade. The cost of doing so is pricey, so I recommend taking Luxembourg with the handicap (-2) at Bet365 at a very solid +162 odds. On the one hand, San Marino doesn’t have the quality to score, producing one goal in its past five matches. That one match came with 10 minutes to go in a match against Azerbaijan where San Marino had fallen behind 5-0. On the other hand, San Marino lacks the quality to defend and it has lost three matches in a row by at least five goals.
Luxembourg isn’t a perennial powerhouse by any means, but it does consistently take care of these lower-quality punching bags, beating Malta and Moldova in 2018 friendlies by combined five goals.
Moldova vs Belarus (2:45 ET)
The main difference here is that one team, Belarus, has meaningful scoring talent while Moldova doesn’t. Belarus is extremely attractive at +120 because you can count on them to score. Look for Dzyanis Laptsew, who has eight goals in 16 league matches so far for Shakhtyor. His teammate Yuri Kovalev also scored as a substitute in Belarus’ 5-0 opening romp of San Marino. Both players also have international club experience.
On the flip side, Moldova has managed just one goal in its last six matches despite facing mostly lower-tiered competition like Luxembourg and Armenia.
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Austria (2:45)
The value with the road side is too good to pass up. I can’t see them losing, so take „Austria or draw,“ which Bet365 offers at -167 odds. You can simply reduce your wager a tad or parlay it if you dislike that amount of chalk. Austria has won four out of its past five, the one loss coming against Brazil. It is also undefeated in four of its past five road fixtures against teams that didn’t play in the World Cup. The one loss came at Wales, which nearly made the World Cup and impressed everybody in the 2016 Euro Cup. That match was very even in terms of shots on target and possession. Austria looked strong in its 2-0 friendly win against upstart Sweden. The Austrians are led by David Alaba, who plays for Germany’s top club Bayern Munich, and Marko Arnautovic, who has had a strong start in the Premiere League so far with two goals in four matches for West Ham and produced three goals in three 2018 international friendlies for Austria.
The Bosnians won their opener against Northern Ireland. Despite scoring two goals, it was apparent that they struggled on offense, relying on a goal against the run of play and on a defensive mess-up from Northern Ireland. They took 15 minutes to even enter Northern Ireland’s box and managed only 36 percent possession in the match. Whereas Austria has shown a high ceiling by beating Germany, Russia, and Sweden in 2018 friendlies, Bosnia indicated a low floor by only drawing against Montenegro in May. For all of its reputation as a strong home side, it has failed to win three home matches in a row—drawing Montenegro and Greece— with its last win coming against Gibraltar.
