3 Player Props July 4: Tarik Skubal to Help Keep A's-Tigers Game Low-Scoring
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, July 4, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Starts for Arizona?
Zach Davies starts for the Diamondbacks today.
It would be erroneous to dismiss Davies because of his high ERA.
While he's had some terrible performances, we can't forget that he also threw seven shutout innings against Tampa Bay and held the Dodgers to one earned run in their venue.
For purposes of this bet, it need not appear to be the case that, performance-wise, Davies is unpredictable.
While his results against strong lineups are somewhat inconsistent, he is reliable against teams that match up poorly against him in view of what pitches he throws.
He throws a sinker, changeup, fastball, cutter, and curveball.
While this mixture has been good enough for him to limit two teams that rank top-four against them from righties, he's certain to perform very well against teams that rank in the bottom ten against them.
Davies' FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was below 3.03 against all three of those bottom-ten teams that he's faced, Washington, Cleveland, and Colorado in Arizona as opposed to in super hitters-friendly Colorado.
His outlook today is strong because New York ranks 24th with a .399 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
The Mets anyhow tend to flop in the game following a high-scoring win.
Betting the Outs
Asking Davies to secure over 14.5 outs, at least five innings, seems like a very modest ask against such a feasible test.
He has gone as many as seven innings this season -- he did this against Tampa Bay. He also lasted 6.2 innings against Washington.
Best Bet: Zach Davies over 14.5 outs at -130 with BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tuesday, July 4, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies today.
Nola has been reliably bad.
He has allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last four starts.
His struggles have been most prominent on the road, where his ERA is 5.34 compared to 3.40 at home.
Most recently, he has allowed at least four earned runs in six straight road starts.
It's not like he's simply being victimized by strong lineups.
The Cubs and Mets, who rank around average in terms of runs per game, both contributed to this trend of Nola's road struggles.
Nola vs. Tough Tests
Strong lineups are reliably productive against Nola at home.
On the road, he allowed five earned runs to the Rangers, four to the Dodgers, five to the Braves, and four to the Diamondbacks.
All four of the five lineups that he's faced that rank top-five in runs per game have contributed to this trend in all four games that they've faced Nola in their venue.
Tampa Bay's outlook today is strong because it ranks third in runs per game and faces Nola in its venue.
Nola's Regression
Nola throws a curveball, faster, sinker, changeup, and cutter.
He has generally not been as effective with these pitches this year as he was last year.
For example, he has already allowed two more home runs off his curveball than he did all of last year.
This pitch does not move as well as it did last year. Its spin isn't great. And he often leaves it in the middle region of the strike zone.
Best Bet: Aaron Nola over 2.5 earned runs at -120 with BetOnline
Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers
Tuesday, July 4, 2023 at Comerica Park in Detroit
Tarik Skubal starts for Detroit today.
While this will be his first start of the season, he's already been throwing 60+ pitches in rehab where, reportedly, he has looked good.
Skubal features a nice variety of pitches: he throws five different ones, and none more than 30.9 percent of the time.
He throws a slider, fastball, sinker, changeup, and curveball.
Pitchers normally like to bury their sliders, but Skubal is not afraid to challenge opponents with this pitch by distributing it across the middle parts of the strike zone.
Last year, Skubal's slider yielded a .228 BA and .368 slugging rate.
It boasts strong velocity and a unique level of horizontal movement.
He relies even more effectively on his sinker and changeup, which yielded .312 and .243 slugging rates, respectively, last year.
While pitchers generally like to bury both pitches, he has no problem commanding either one in the upper parts of the strike zone.
His locational tendencies thus make him a unique pitcher for batters to face.
They help him do a good job in general of avoiding hard contact.
History vs. A's
Last season, Skubal faced Oakland twice.
He allowed five hits and zero earned runs in 13 innings against the A's.
In both starts, he did an excellent job of minimizing hard contact.
Matchup Deeper Dive
Skubal's outlook today is strong also because he matches up well against the A's in view of what pitches he throws.
They rank 27th with a .366 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Tarik Skubal under 1.5 earned runs at +100 with BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, July 4, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
- Zach Davies has thrived against very tough matchups
- Davies is especially trustworthy against weaker tests construed in matchup terms
- The Mets match up poorly against him in terms of their slugging rate against his pitches from righties
Who Starts for Arizona?
Zach Davies starts for the Diamondbacks today.
It would be erroneous to dismiss Davies because of his high ERA.
While he's had some terrible performances, we can't forget that he also threw seven shutout innings against Tampa Bay and held the Dodgers to one earned run in their venue.
For purposes of this bet, it need not appear to be the case that, performance-wise, Davies is unpredictable.
While his results against strong lineups are somewhat inconsistent, he is reliable against teams that match up poorly against him in view of what pitches he throws.
He throws a sinker, changeup, fastball, cutter, and curveball.
While this mixture has been good enough for him to limit two teams that rank top-four against them from righties, he's certain to perform very well against teams that rank in the bottom ten against them.
Davies' FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was below 3.03 against all three of those bottom-ten teams that he's faced, Washington, Cleveland, and Colorado in Arizona as opposed to in super hitters-friendly Colorado.
His outlook today is strong because New York ranks 24th with a .399 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
The Mets anyhow tend to flop in the game following a high-scoring win.
Betting the Outs
Asking Davies to secure over 14.5 outs, at least five innings, seems like a very modest ask against such a feasible test.
He has gone as many as seven innings this season -- he did this against Tampa Bay. He also lasted 6.2 innings against Washington.
Best Bet: Zach Davies over 14.5 outs at -130 with BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tuesday, July 4, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay
- Especially lately, Aaron Nola is consistently awful on the road
- Strong lineups are reliably productive against Nola, and Tampa Bay certainly has a strong lineup
- Nola has regressed this season
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies today.
Nola has been reliably bad.
He has allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last four starts.
His struggles have been most prominent on the road, where his ERA is 5.34 compared to 3.40 at home.
Most recently, he has allowed at least four earned runs in six straight road starts.
It's not like he's simply being victimized by strong lineups.
The Cubs and Mets, who rank around average in terms of runs per game, both contributed to this trend of Nola's road struggles.
Nola vs. Tough Tests
Strong lineups are reliably productive against Nola at home.
On the road, he allowed five earned runs to the Rangers, four to the Dodgers, five to the Braves, and four to the Diamondbacks.
All four of the five lineups that he's faced that rank top-five in runs per game have contributed to this trend in all four games that they've faced Nola in their venue.
Tampa Bay's outlook today is strong because it ranks third in runs per game and faces Nola in its venue.
Nola's Regression
Nola throws a curveball, faster, sinker, changeup, and cutter.
He has generally not been as effective with these pitches this year as he was last year.
For example, he has already allowed two more home runs off his curveball than he did all of last year.
This pitch does not move as well as it did last year. Its spin isn't great. And he often leaves it in the middle region of the strike zone.
Best Bet: Aaron Nola over 2.5 earned runs at -120 with BetOnline
Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers
Tuesday, July 4, 2023 at Comerica Park in Detroit
- Tarik Skubal features a good variety of pitches that he relies on effectively
- Skubal has a strong recent history against Oakland
- The A's hit Skubal's pitches from lefties very poorly
Tarik Skubal starts for Detroit today.
While this will be his first start of the season, he's already been throwing 60+ pitches in rehab where, reportedly, he has looked good.
Skubal features a nice variety of pitches: he throws five different ones, and none more than 30.9 percent of the time.
He throws a slider, fastball, sinker, changeup, and curveball.
Pitchers normally like to bury their sliders, but Skubal is not afraid to challenge opponents with this pitch by distributing it across the middle parts of the strike zone.
Last year, Skubal's slider yielded a .228 BA and .368 slugging rate.
It boasts strong velocity and a unique level of horizontal movement.
He relies even more effectively on his sinker and changeup, which yielded .312 and .243 slugging rates, respectively, last year.
While pitchers generally like to bury both pitches, he has no problem commanding either one in the upper parts of the strike zone.
His locational tendencies thus make him a unique pitcher for batters to face.
They help him do a good job in general of avoiding hard contact.
History vs. A's
Last season, Skubal faced Oakland twice.
He allowed five hits and zero earned runs in 13 innings against the A's.
In both starts, he did an excellent job of minimizing hard contact.
Matchup Deeper Dive
Skubal's outlook today is strong also because he matches up well against the A's in view of what pitches he throws.
They rank 27th with a .366 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Tarik Skubal under 1.5 earned runs at +100 with BetOnline
