Tuesday MLB Total!!!!

H

hile75

CTG's ambassador of sexy
Over/Unders 53-20-2
Favs (-140 or less) 29-12
Doggies 8-7
R/L 4-4

Boston/Tampa Bay UNDER 9

I know this seems like the 'simple' pick with 2 big name pitchers....But its the right play......The last 2 HUGE pitching matchups in the NL (Peavy/Penny or Peavy/Lowe....and I believe Webb/Peavy)....Both went under 7......Please dont quote me on that last bit of info, that was straight memory trying to fail me....

Anyway....Dice-K as been lights out recently.. In his last 5 starts he's given up a total of 6 runs and the UNDER is 5-0......The real key to this game is Kasmir, who has seen Boston plenty of times before....I know he hasnt pitched super as of late, but last year he threw VERY well against Boston.....All we really need in this game is for him not to get absolutely rocked.....Tampa has lost 8 straight and are simply NOT manufacturing runs..The UNDER is 6-2 in Tamps last 8 and here there run totals in those 8 (4 1 3 1 1 6 2 2)....The UNDER is 8-2 in Bostons last 10, and once again, the red hot Dice-K throws tonite.......6-1 Boston.

BOL tonite everyone
 
I'm certainly in no position to argue with you Hile and will certainly tag along with you on this total tonight but last night there were a couple of games with pretty solid pitching matchups that both were expected to go under and instead went over the total of 7.5 or/and 7. First we had the Orioles-White Sox game (Bedard-Buehrle) followed later by the Dodger-Braves match which featured a pretty decent pitching in itself between Lowe and Smoltz. In any case I certainly hope you're right on this one tonight and the way you've been hitting them (totals), I see no reason for it to go over the total, unlike last night's pair of supposed under games which toppled the unexpected over total. :shake:
 
ok you know I usually tail you, and I have no problems tailing you blindly, but Fenway totals and me this year...


I remember playing the under twice against SF, both ended up slugfests...now when you think they're going to be hitting against Texas, only one went over if I'm not mistaking...

I just don't have a good feeling about Fenway totals this year, so I'll skip it.

May it cash in for you buddy. :shake:
 
Rug Rat said:
I'm certainly in no position to argue with you Hile and will certainly tag along with you on this total tonight but last night there were a couple of games with pretty solid pitching matchups that both were expected to go under and instead went over the total of 7.5 or/and 7. First we had the Orioles-White Sox game (Bedard-Buehrle) followed later by the Dodger-Braves match which featured a pretty decent pitching in itself between Lowe and Smoltz. In any case I certainly hope you're right on this one tonight and the way you've been hitting them (totals), I see no reason for it to go over the total, unlike last night's pair of supposed under games which toppled the unexpected over total. :shake:
Click to expand...

If you researched the O's-WSox game, you realized that although the SPs were strong, the two bullpens involved were two of the worst in the MLB. Granted Bedard had a pitiful outing forfeiting 3 HRs, the WSox BP gave up 5 runs in the last 2 innings. Also, I know the total was 7.5 and without the last 5 runs we still would have had an 8-run game. My point is that the obvious under wasn't obvious if you looked past Bedard and Buehrle.

Moral of the story: Boston has a decent bullpen; Tampa's BP blows donkey balls; we need a great outing by Kazmir tonight (or for Dick-K to shut the D'rays out).
 
make that Dice-K... i don't want him reading this thread with me calling him a dick so he throws the game to spite us all
:36_11_6:
 
Blue_Chip said:
If you researched the O's-WSox game, you realized that although the SPs were strong, the two bullpens involved were two of the worst in the MLB. Granted Bedard had a pitiful outing forfeiting 3 HRs, the WSox BP gave up 5 runs in the last 2 innings. Also, I know the total was 7.5 and without the last 5 runs we still would have had an 8-run game. My point is that the obvious under wasn't obvious if you looked past Bedard and Buehrle.

Moral of the story: Boston has a decent bullpen; Tampa's BP blows donkey balls; we need a great outing by Kazmir tonight (or for Dick-K to shut the D'rays out).
Click to expand...

FYI I researched the game thoroughly and without question the bullpens were not supposed to be much of a factor going into this game, meaning both starters may have been expected to possibly go the distance or within an inning if completion based on the total set by the oddsmakers. Lets be realistic, these were are not two of your stellar teams in the majors to begin with in the first place. The same scenario was staged heading into the second game (which you made no reference to) as well. Both Smoltz and his counterpart, Lowe, would have been expected to last more than 6 and 5 innings respectively. In closing, if you had dug into my thread a little deeper, you would have picked up on the point I was trying to make. In any case, it's well set out in the 'moral of the story' below.

Moral of the story, who's to say the the same thing won't happen with Kazmir again today against the Red Sox at Fenway!
 
GL tonight hile, leaning the same way as well. counting on Dice-K to dominant the d-rays as they are in a funk. but you have some nice stats to back it up yourself.
 
GREAT discussion here so far fellas.....absolutely awesome.....


I wanna touch on last nites big pitchers discussion......Realize that the O's and Sox pens are fuckin garbage....as proven by Bobby Jenks last nite.......I'm not shocked that went over, not in the least...I'm pretty sure, not absolutely, but pretty sure Kazmir does well tonite, looking at his past against better Sox teams.......I honestly dont think the D-Rays score tonite, no matter where they play.....Dice-K has looked wicked recently, and if hes pulled, whats the worst that happens, they bring in Okajima, who last liek a 1 ERA on the year??? As long as Boston doesnt go absolutely bonkers on Kazmir in the first 2-3 innings, this should coast to the under...

As for the Fenway totals.....It's 20-18-1 on the season.....More overs, yes, more to the point of being worried, not at all.......being roughly .500 in fenway for the season doesnt really lean me one way or another.......
 
Very good points and I do hope you're right in that the TB bullpen views from the sidelines. Part of my emphasis pertaining to last night's games however also touched on the Braves-Dodgers game as well and both you fellows made no mention of that one, only the Orioles-White Sox game. In any case, lets hope for the best this evening at Fenway.
 
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