Tuesday Mlb playoffs Discussion

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
Im on road just wanted to get out there cause I think this another goofy number

Sonny gray ov 14.5 outs -130

Dude went 5 innings 28 of his 32 starts this year and been awesome in day games!
 
MikeU said:
Copy that sir
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I actually paid -140, I bet twins also and they were -130, just got them backwards, sorry, like I said I was on road so really shouldn’t have been freaking posting anyways! Lol. But yea, I wouldn’t have hesitated to hit him at anything up to -160, I wouldn’t had to give it more thought above that but honestly i think there a case him going 5 innings is at least a 60% likelihood!
 
Actually back home now so not doing anything dangerous! Lol.

I don’t know the caveats of the twins new park all that well, I’m assuming with a 3ish start time shadows are gonna play a role at some point? I dunno if that be early in the game or a hour or 2 in? Had nothing to do with making the play on Sonny out total, obviously I would love for there to be helping shadows somewhere between the start and 5th but didht play a part in capping it. Im
Just now wondering if/when shadows become a factor in that park and if anyone has a good understanding what time of day they do? It be really good to know!
 
twinkie13 said:
3:07
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That why I assume we def gonna have shadows at some point but I’m not familiar with twins park, all I know bout it was I thought it was incredibly stupid not to have a retractable roof in freaking Minnesota! I understand not wanting a dome, outdoor baseball the way it should be but the odds of the 1st month of season being a total mess and then if they actually go deep in the playoffs having to play in freezing ass temps just to high and Fucking dumb, play a game all year that mostly played in warm temps then you decide the winner in some freezing ass late October game where they be ice fishing in a month! Lol. Anyways rant over, Need to know if:when we get shadows that be tough on hitters, always a chance to make a strong early play or get a good live bet in if we know at sone point the shadows will arrive!
 
I played the O’s tonight, I just like this team to much to think they go down without a fight, I have no great reasoning or logic. I know they practically never get swept in a series so while this a bit different since the series was 2 at home then moving parks I still can’t see them getting swept. I learned my lesson early in this series I have no desire to mess with pitcher props, Bochey a wild card far as what he will do plus these offenses are both mostly better than the starting pitchers so no point trying to guess.

Who knows with rangers? I’ve thought they were the best team in baseball more than 1x this year then I’ve thought “holy shit these mofo’s really gonna miss the playoffs!”, I saw them go thru a stretch where I never seen so many bases loaded no outs and they get nothing! Shit crazy! Before that stretch they easily had the best run differential in the sport! These dudes run hot and cold, they obviously been hot but they been on the road for weeks it seems, who knows what happens when they come back home tonight? I actually hate going against Eovaldi, he the one pitcher in this series I kinda fear/respect for Texas, he looked much more like his pre injury awesome self in tampa, he has always been known for big time performances in playoffs, I seriously hate being against him. That said the rays made it very easy for him, they swung at a lot of ball 4s!

I’ll take o’s lineup over rays any day and I think they get a few off him early and get to the pen soon enough to do some real damage! They will have to cause I’m not real confident Kramer will shut rangers down! He did do a very good job vs texas early in the year when they were really mashing! Interesting to me I heard rangers overall don’t have a great slug numbers vs fastballs in the zone, pretty surprising for a team who rakes like these guys!! Kremer best pitch happens to be fastballs which he has a variety of, im not thilled sept been his worst looking month, I assume he has a lot on his mind being from Israel I believe and whatever going on there (sorry I don’t follow world events real closely, I do this! Lol), anyways I want to think it will be like a Farve situation when his dad died and dude pitches the game his life but I don’t really know this will be the case, not even remotely counting on it other than just saying I believe O’s will find a way in this game, how they do it im not real sure so I’m basically throwing shit against the wall here! Lol.

It almost always seager for me but Garver might be the guy I fear the most for Kremer early on. He is the texas player who does cream fastballs in the zone! I worry Kremer could def put guys on the bases, with walks or singles, I think he will prob pitch out of some jams, but if guys happen to get on base with the wrong hitter coming up watch out for a crooked inning. Garver is way up there as the wrong hitter for him, very limited meaningless 4 at bat sample but he does have a double and a bomb in those 4 AB’s, that means very little other than it kinda confirms the fact Garver smashes the kind of pitches Kremer throws most!

I think I will be playing a ov 1.5 h/r/rbi prop -105 on Garver if he in a decent spot in lineup. I’d love to get plus money on over 1.5 bases but all DK offering is over .5 a base -185, that so stupid, that is same as fucking hit prop! I hate when they do that, why have a total base prop for guy if you gonna line/price it the exact same as a hit?!!? Id be thrilled to play over 1.5 bases at +115 or so!
 
Are there any twins fans out there or just someone familiar with the park who can tell us if or when shadows will be in play? It would be greatly appreciated! My pure guess would be aomewhere around 4-5 be best chance but I have no clue far as park configuration for sun! I know we have a thread that would help with wind direction but I dunno if there a way to take that and know if shadows get into hitters line of site or between the pitcher and batter which I think makes it incredibly tough on hitters! Don’t be shy, we all would love to know!!
 
Using goggle I found this, don’t laugh “Mlb the show” is easily the most amazingly accurate spots video gm imo!

1696955987945.png


1696956088429.png
 
Love Eovaldi in this spot to close it out. When he went on the DL in late July there was question whether he'd be shut down for the season. Not so. His last start at Tampa indicated he may be fully healthy now after going 7 strong. His stuff was nasty that day.
 
I dunno what time that game started but I’m assuming it was a 12 start and the shadows came into play around 3 or so but I’m not for sure yet! Lol
 
Frank Costanza said:
Love Eovaldi in this spot to close it out. When he went on the DL in late July there was question whether he'd be shut down for the season. Not so. His last start at Tampa indicated he may be fully healthy now after going 7 strong. His stuff was nasty that day.
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I totally understand. It just my love for this young balty team the last 2 years that has me betting them as digs here. As mentioned going against Eovaldi def scares me and it not a real big bet, I could be betting w my heart here but I usually do a really good job of hiding I have one! Lol, like I have bet against cardinals in playoffs many times, even when I was going to game before!! It more just this belief I have the O’s will not go away easy! The one think I will say, and I did cash easy w Eovaldi outs in that rays game, he was very good no question but rays bats were not very intimidating and they bailed him out so many times swinging at 3-1 and 3-2 balls! I think he will find it tougher sledding vs balty! I’m certainly not saying they gonna crush him but I think they can get a few and get him out the game before end of 6. Then I trust them to get some off the rangers pen, o’s been a great late inning team all year. I trust Kremer to keep it close enough for this to happen, it made me like him a lot more when hearing bout rangers slug vs fastballs. I have no doubt tex will get guys on the bases but I think more times than not Kremer will get out of it. I expect like a 3-2 game when both starters leave and I’m trusting o’s to win the late innings. I could def be wrong tho, if Eovaldi slammed the door I wouldn’t be shocked, I’ll just tip my cap and move on (and say congrats to you!).
 
Inspekdah said:
-135 for Gray for me. Let’s goo
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Ya’ll should know by now I’m far from a expert in knowing where these things will move! Look what happened to that Gallen line in milw! I just play them when I see value, I can’t control what ppl with more money than me see! Lol. Man if we get those shadows im reading bout at beginning his start, this a slam dunk I know that much! I’m just not sure what time those shadows being talked bout arrive? Lol
 
What’s with Cristian Javier’s number only being 11.5? I can only find once this season that he’s gone less than 4 innings.
 
askias said:
What’s with Cristian Javier’s number only being 11.5? I can only find once this season that he’s gone less than 4 innings.
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Lol, damn, he was like 13.5 without juice when I bet Sonny, he has been so inconsistent this year tho, and it seems like when they put a guy that low you better respect it, reminds me of them having that crazy 14.5 for berrios! I thought that was slam dunk but apparently they knew the blow Jays manager was a total fucjing moron cause by 2nd inning despite Berrios looking awesome he already had kikiuchi starting to warm up! Then what in the 4th with berrios pitching incredible with a super low pitch count he gives up a single and that moron yanks him so Kikuchi can give up the only 2 runs of the game?!!?!!!! I was happy I guess he basically handed twins series (I have a twins WS future from 1’stsrt of year) but pissed me off royally since that bet wins easy if manager just stays out the way!!

Anyways long way of saying when they this low I feel like there something at work we don’t know bout. Other than being inconsistent I want to say Javier has been really really bad on 6+ this year (and I think career but I’m going off memory right now), maybe those things? Maybe someone knows 50 degree temps ain’t his cup of tea? I have no clue honestly, it does seem crazy short, especially if there gonna be a legit shadow issue??
 
I heard something else crazy I didn’t know also. Gm2 in houstom was only like 2-3rd time all year they played w the roof open, apparently it not up to them, I dunno if that the case all year but in the playoffs the mlb decides if the roof open or not!! That is crazy to me! Something to keep in mind if they do play a game 5 Back in Houston, I feel like Mlb opening the roof takes away at least 50% their home field edge since they no more familiar playing like that than the opponent! Then ya gotta think, would Mlb mind sticking it to Stros and getting rid of them? I know we don’t talk a lot bout the trash can banging Cheater season but I can’t imagine Mlb isn’t still annoyed by it, if they can do something to kinda stick it to houston that nobody realizes or knows bout would they? I think they kinda did in game 2!!! Lol
 
Another way to play this could be Javier strikeouts, which is at 4.5. If 4 innings is assumed to be his over/under line, could he hit 5 strikeouts in that period?
 
askias said:
Another way to play this could be Javier strikeouts, which is at 4.5. If 4 innings is assumed to be his over/under line, could he hit 5 strikeouts in that period?
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If I were to play one that would be it. He could fan 5 in 3 innings but also walk 4 and get pulled in the 4th.
 
Twins have plenty of swing and miss I think and I don’t think they saw Javier this year? Guys like Lewis and julien have never faced him, correra played with him, never took a at bat vs him. I wanna say I don’t think Javier has ever even pitched in twins park but I could be wrong? I could certainly see if being a lot of walks and k’s, especially if there are shadows,.
 
Which of course would explain the out total to a tee, he has 4-5 walks and 5+ k’s in 3-4 innings you know his pitch count be threw the roof, dusty not gonna leave him out there the entire 4th if he walks a couple that ining.
 
2daBank said:
I played the O’s tonight, I just like this team to much to think they go down without a fight, I have no great reasoning or logic. I know they practically never get swept in a series so while this a bit different since the series was 2 at home then moving parks I still can’t see them getting swept. I learned my lesson early in this series I have no desire to mess with pitcher props, Bochey a wild card far as what he will do plus these offenses are both mostly better than the starting pitchers so no point trying to guess.

Who knows with rangers? I’ve thought they were the best team in baseball more than 1x this year then I’ve thought “holy shit these mofo’s really gonna miss the playoffs!”, I saw them go thru a stretch where I never seen so many bases loaded no outs and they get nothing! Shit crazy! Before that stretch they easily had the best run differential in the sport! These dudes run hot and cold, they obviously been hot but they been on the road for weeks it seems, who knows what happens when they come back home tonight? I actually hate going against Eovaldi, he the one pitcher in this series I kinda fear/respect for Texas, he looked much more like his pre injury awesome self in tampa, he has always been known for big time performances in playoffs, I seriously hate being against him. That said the rays made it very easy for him, they swung at a lot of ball 4s!

I’ll take o’s lineup over rays any day and I think they get a few off him early and get to the pen soon enough to do some real damage! They will have to cause I’m not real confident Kramer will shut rangers down! He did do a very good job vs texas early in the year when they were really mashing! Interesting to me I heard rangers overall don’t have a great slug numbers vs fastballs in the zone, pretty surprising for a team who rakes like these guys!! Kremer best pitch happens to be fastballs which he has a variety of, im not thilled sept been his worst looking month, I assume he has a lot on his mind being from Israel I believe and whatever going on there (sorry I don’t follow world events real closely, I do this! Lol), anyways I want to think it will be like a Farve situation when his dad died and dude pitches the game his life but I don’t really know this will be the case, not even remotely counting on it other than just saying I believe O’s will find a way in this game, how they do it im not real sure so I’m basically throwing shit against the wall here! Lol.

It almost always seager for me but Garver might be the guy I fear the most for Kremer early on. He is the texas player who does cream fastballs in the zone! I worry Kremer could def put guys on the bases, with walks or singles, I think he will prob pitch out of some jams, but if guys happen to get on base with the wrong hitter coming up watch out for a crooked inning. Garver is way up there as the wrong hitter for him, very limited meaningless 4 at bat sample but he does have a double and a bomb in those 4 AB’s, that means very little other than it kinda confirms the fact Garver smashes the kind of pitches Kremer throws most!

I think I will be playing a ov 1.5 h/r/rbi prop -105 on Garver if he in a decent spot in lineup. I’d love to get plus money on over 1.5 bases but all DK offering is over .5 a base -185, that so stupid, that is same as fucking hit prop! I hate when they do that, why have a total base prop for guy if you gonna line/price it the exact same as a hit?!!? Id be thrilled to play over 1.5 bases at +115 or so!
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Gotta think they get one here….not sure though
TX been good to me
 
twinkie13 said:
Gotta think they get one here….not sure though
TX been good to me
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I’m seriously not trying to convince anyone balty a great play, I’ve already mentioned I’d really prefer it wasn’t Eovaldi pitching for rangers cause he has big game chops I like and normally wouldn’t be against. I’ve just seen o’s win so much late in games where I do think rangers are the weakest, they never get swept, I’m just buying them to make this a series cause I expected from beginning it would be a fun series, I think they were somewhat victims of what happens to all the best teams, sitting around watching the wild card wasn’t a advantage for them, who cares bout setting up your starters when that not the strength your team? I feel like they started getting their groove back a bit late in gm2 tho. Plus money it was worth it to me thinking Kremer can stay close w Eovaldi and o’s can win in the later innings. I don’t think they will get totally shut down by Eovaldi like tampa was, I declared Rays dead a month ago! lol. I think O’s just got caught in a tough spot sitting around while rangers were heating up. By no means a big bet for me, I just can’t get past the idea this should be a longer more interesting series!
 
Kremer out total is freaking 10.5, that ain’t exactly a ringing endorsement! Lmao. Are they gonna just yank him the min he lets guys on base? I think that would be a mistake, I think he is gonna have to pitch out of trouble at least a few innings!
 
2daBank said:
Im on road just wanted to get out there cause I think this another goofy number

Sonny gray ov 14.5 outs -130

Dude went 5 innings 28 of his 32 starts this year and been awesome in day games!
Click to expand...
You also have my friend Bill Miller behind the plate and he loves calling strikes.
 
I just heard a-rod say the shadows won’t be a issue till last 3 innings. So I guess live bet under after 5th?
 
There some shadow now but looks mostly like pitcher and hitter in it at moment, think it’s tougher on hitters when one in sun one in shadow but whatever. Gray got this!!
 
2daBank said:
I’m seriously not trying to convince anyone balty a great play, I’ve already mentioned I’d really prefer it wasn’t Eovaldi pitching for rangers cause he has big game chops I like and normally wouldn’t be against. I’ve just seen o’s win so much late in games where I do think rangers are the weakest, they never get swept, I’m just buying them to make this a series cause I expected from beginning it would be a fun series, I think they were somewhat victims of what happens to all the best teams, sitting around watching the wild card wasn’t a advantage for them, who cares bout setting up your starters when that not the strength your team? I feel like they started getting their groove back a bit late in gm2 tho. Plus money it was worth it to me thinking Kremer can stay close w Eovaldi and o’s can win in the later innings. I don’t think they will get totally shut down by Eovaldi like tampa was, I declared Rays dead a month ago! lol. I think O’s just got caught in a tough spot sitting around while rangers were heating up. By no means a big bet for me, I just can’t get past the idea this should be a longer more interesting series!
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Shit I can see all that. I’m with you on Eoavaldi. It’s always rush backing him though. Bats tend to get on the ball

Should be a good one. I might take the O’s with you


What was the series price before G1 did you see?
 
twinkie13 said:
Shit I can see all that. I’m with you on Eoavaldi. It’s always rush backing him though. Bats tend to get on the ball

Should be a good one. I might take the O’s with you


What was the series price before G1 did you see?
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Not sure. Retards started all these things on ncaa Saturday, I didn’t have time for that shit., lol. I’m kinda greedy, while I was out I was so close to the river I crossed over and did one more with o’s ml, gunner 1+ bases, garver 2+ bases., just a beer money bet, paid like +750 tho :)
 
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