Tuesday MLB (one HUGE play inside)

[Unicorn]

Hello everyone!

Hopefully it's turning point for me today, going back to basics considering caping games. Quite alot of plays today, but the first and early one is the largest I've had this season so far, and I feel the most confident in this one.


1:05 NY METS (Maine) @ ATLANTA (Glavine)

New York Mets, winners of 6 games of their last 10, meet with their division rivals, the Braves - today in a doubleheader. The Mets are coming off a 2-game series win over Yankees, and it's definitely been a good and refreshing series for them. Before this series, Mets have been slumping, there have been some internal communication issues between the players in the clubhouse, and over the past weekend, it seems like the Mets have pretty much solved it all. The sweep over Yankees came as a cure for them. On both infield and in the clubhouse. But the greatest thing in all of this is the fact that players have stayed with their feet on the ground, they didn't let this excitement get into their heads (too much). Anyway, here's what some of them said after the Monday night win over NYY:

"We haven't done anything yet," was David Wright's assessment.

"We played some good baseball here [against the Yankees]," Carlos Delgado said. "But we can't let this be it. We need more of this." <o></o>

"We can't be satisfied with this," Wrightsaid. "We can't look at what we did here in two games like it's a big run. We played with excitement and intensity tonight. And that was great, but now, it's good that we have a day off [before playing four games in three days against the Braves] to kind of recover.<o></o>

"Now, we have to bring that excitement and intensity to Atlanta with us and keep pushing. The way we rebounded from last week is very encouraging. We can't have a letdown series like we've had a few times."<o></o>

"We made a strong statement in this series," Ryan Church said, "and it would be great if we could keep it that level and make a move." <o></o>

Ok, now something about the pitching matchup. For Mets in this game 1 of this series will start John Maine, imo their best pitcher. Santana has obviously been Mets ace on the paper but Maine has performed so far as their real ace. He had all but one of his starts so far marked as quality ones, and than one bad came in the season opener - against the same Braves he'll be facing today. Maine is 3-0, 1.77 ERA over his last 3 starts with 20.1 innings pitched while limiting opponents to only .222 obp. Also, he posted very nice 0.84 whip. He's been solid in his road/day starts this season while his team has been averaging 6.6 runs per game in those games. As for Glavine, he's had only 3 quality starts this season, 2 disasters and now he's coming off one marked as "so-so". It's been well-known how terrible he's been in day starts, but I'd like to point out that he's been also bad when pitching at home, in Atlanta. Considering he's been pitching only for Braves and Mets during his career, his last start vs NY came back in 2002. So far, it's been proved that when pitcher's facing his former team usually the team got the advantage (see Tim Hudson vs Oakland the other day, for an example) - the best example for Glavine is when he was pitching for the Mets and was facing the Braves, he was only 4-11, 5.15 ERA vs them. At Turner Field, he was even worse, going 3-7, 5.64 ERA. Anyway, both pitchers will be pitching on >5 days rest and so far, Maine's been perfect when pitching on longer rest: going 3-0, 2.41 ERA with .183 BAA. I know he'll be pitching on 7 days rest but I'm sure it won't effect him so much as some other ppl may think. Glavine's also been better when going on longer rest, posting a 0-1, 2.92 ERA with .255 BAA. The only thing which concerns me a bit for this game are the pen stats. Mets' pen have combined 5.04 ERA (road/L10 games combined) while the Braves pen has been excellent all year so far, posting a 2.18 ERA (home/L10 combined). As for the hitters; Jones, Kotsay and Teixeira are combined 11-for-30 (.366 BA) against Maine with 2 doubles and 2 HR's but Escobar, Franceour, Johnson and McCann have combined only 7-for-43 (.163 BA) with a triple vs him. On the other side, pretty much all Mets hitters "own" Glavine.

The play: NY Mets ML for 15 Units @ 1.80, NY Mets RL for 5 Units @ 2.25

More plays to come in a few hours, stay tuned.. 'an_horse'

 

[Unicorn]

Post updated (added the write-up, as promised)

 

[RetroVK]

you have a misprint in your first post.

it says 15 units.

 

[Satyr]

I don't think it's a misprint.

Unicorn is a very disciplined capper, I know him personally, but from time to time he likes to think big and pound a play. That's fine, since in the past he has mostly hit them. I can confirm this isn't some gimmick but a real deal, he does like to go out on a play when he sees the chance.


GL today Uni

:cheers:

Mets had em loaded with 1 out but choked...hope they do it for you in the 2nd.
cheers.

 

[RetroVK]

good luck unicorn !!!!

 

[Unicorn]

Thanks for the explanations, Satyr.

No matter of the Mets game outcome (they sucked ass up to 7th inning, wtb some Mike Scioscia game managing here [two thumbs down for Randolph] - should kick in the butt all those "all-stars" and their impatience at the plate - mainly Delgado), here are my other plays for tonight.

Baltimore (Cabrera) @ NY YANKEES (Mussina)

Daniel Cabrera has been extraordinary this season so far, he looks like a pitcher everyone in the organization wanted to see over the last couple of years, but you know that one - "better now than never". He's pitching deep into the games (23.1 IP over his L3 starts), not allowing more than 2-3 runs on average to the opponents while he's had great whip for the season. On road this season he's posted 2.17 ERA with .262 obp and 0.96 whip. His night game starts - he's been unbeatable so far with 3-0, 3.21 ERA and 1.07 whip while limiting opponents to .273 obp. In this combo, Under is 8-1. In his 7 quality starts he posted this season, Under is 6-1. He's been pitching like a completely different guy when compared to himself over the last few seasons, and therefore I don't take too serious his record vs Yankees from last 2 seasons. Mike Mussina has been great lately, although he's been averaging little less than 6 innings per game, he's been limiting opponents to .269 obp while posting 2.60 ERA and 0.98 whip. Yankees are 5-0 over his last 5 starts, while Under was 4-1 in those games. At home this season, Moose went 3-2 so far, with Yankees winning those 3 games by 2 runs or more. 4.56 ERA and .324 obp he posted at Yankee Stadium aren't great but 1.21 whip is ok. By the way, the Under is 8-3 in his home/night starts combined. Both pitchers will be going on >5 days rest, where both of them have posted better results; Cabrera 2-0, 3.46 ERA with .314 BAA while Mussina 2-0, 2.03 ERA with excellent .191 BA. Both pens have been plain awesome, averaging from 3.23 to 3.38 ERA in their respectful situations (BAL road/L10 and NY home/L10). Some interesting stats considering OU for this game:

Both Cabrera and Mussina have combined a 3-13 OU mark in their overall starts<o></o>
Both Cabrera and Mussina have combined a 1-8 OU mark in their road/home starts<o></o>
Both Cabrera and Mussina have a 7-27 OU mark in tonight's situation (night, R/H, grass)<o></o>

BAL 7-15 OU on road this season<o></o>
NYY 6-12-1 OU at home this season<o></o>
Combined 13-27-1 OU<o></o>

One more thing, Yankees are expected to have A-Rod back in the lineup tonight, and that's definitely a good news for them. Although I don't expect we'll see a 13-0 Yankees win because of that, considering the whole situation over the last few weeks for them (they're 3-7 over their L10 games, lost 3 in a row, went only 6-11 without A-Rod, got swept by Mets, Wang suffered a very ugly defeat (like never before - it suprised everyone in the clubhouse) on Sunday, etc..) - I do think if nothing else, but that they may show much better effort tonight to win a game. I like what I've seen from Girardi:

"People are going to talk about the 20-24 record, but it's not about that anymore, because that's behind us," Girardi said. "It's what you start doing on Tuesday."<o></o>
"There's a lot of things I thought would be different," Girardi said. "I thought our record would be better, but it's not. But it's not about those 44 games. It's about the next 118, and it's really about the next one, starting on Tuesday."<o></o>

The play: NY Yankees RL for 2 Units @ 2.30, Under 8.5 for 3 Units @ 1.95

(more plays to come..)

 

[RetroVK]

good shit, like that play as well.

gl uni

 

[Unicorn]

8:10 Cleveland (Sabathia) @ CHICAGO WS (Contreras)

Hmm, interesting. A team who's only 4-6 over their L10 games, lost 3 in a row and going with their ace vs team playing at home, who's 7-3 over L10 games and currently riding a 5 game winning streak with their (true) ace on the mount; is favored? With all due respect to C.C.Sabathia, who seems to be right back on track, but Indians aren't h-i-t-t-i-n-g, period. SO when I see that they've been averaging 6.9 runs in his starts (road/night starts combined) that really doesn't mean anything to me anymore. Contreras has been great, too, especially lately but the difference here is that White Sox have been playing great baseball for a while now, and that means good pitching, good defense and great hitting. As for the hitter vs pitcher stats - well, Dye, Ozuna and Swisher pretty much own Sabathia while only Sizemore has solid numbers vs Conteras. Both pens have been similar (let's say), although, lately the WS pen have posted 3.76 ERA while CLE pen have posted 4.42 ERA - difference is there, no doubt about it.

One important info:

Contreras, who had been battling some soreness in his back, said on Sunday that he felt much improved and would be able to start Tuesday night's series opener<o>.</o>

I've been reading some comments on WS website, glad to see what's actually been happening inside the clubhouse. Here are some of the comments Guillen made:

"It seems like we started coming together, like we started getting a feeling about each other. I think we needed a road trip like this to make sure we could come together, learn how we're going to play the game better. They just need to stay consistent. They need to make sure they don't get down too much, [become] dead men walking in the clubhouse, dead men walking in the dugout.

One more thing:

The team is 5-0 since Guillen made his lineup changes in Anaheim and moved Quentin to No. 3.<o></o>

The play: Chicago WS ML for 3 Units @ 2.00

 

[Unicorn]

7:05 LA ANGELS (Lackey) @ Toronto (McGowan)

John Lackey's season debut went good, 7.0inn 1er 1bb 4so. This will be his first start on road this season. His last 2 seasons @ TOR he posted these results: 0-1, 2.25 ERA (8.0inn 2er 0bb 3so). As for the Jays hitters vs Lackey - almost everyone except Stewart (.13-for-38, .342 BA) have shitty numbers vs him. McGowan has been completely incosistent this season, going upside down in his starts. His last one, vs CLE - it was his roughest start of the season, allowing 9 runs in only 3.2 innings! He's had pretty bad run support this season, with the team averaging only ~ 2.0 runs per game in his starts. He'll be going on 5 days rest tonight, a situation where he's been only 2-3 so far, with 5.45 ERA and .288 BAA. From Angels hitters, Anderson, Izturis and Matthews have had much success vs McGowan (combined 7-for-19, .368 BA) while Guerrero, Hunter, Kotchman and Willits have been hitless vs him (0-for-18). But with the type of season Kotchman (and Torii to some point) has been having so far, I doubt that trend will continue tonight. Important information is that both Kendrick and Figgins will accompany the team on this road trip, and their presence will surely be good for the rest of the guys, although the return dates for either of them have not been set (yet). Considering the whole past the Angels have here, in Toronto (only 18-38 since '96, Jays winning 8 of the last season series between them) - I like the kind of approach Mike Scioscia has here - looking within his own team to "assess his chances". I think that behind their ace, Angels may win this series opener.

The play: LA Angels ML for 3 Units @ 2.00

 

[Unicorn]

7:10 ARIZONA (Owings) @ FLORIDA (Hendrickson)<o></o>

Both teams have been playing well, the only difference is - Diamondbacks have been winning more games lately. However, some of the guys on Marlins team have been heating up offensively (Mike Jacobs instantly comes on my mind) while both teams have posted good numbers vs the opposing pitchers. Another reason is run support - while for Owings Zona have been averaging 5.6 runs per game, Marlins have been averaging almost identical 5.7 runs per game for Hendrickson. And let's not forget that Owings is also a good hitter, batting .357 BA with 5 runs scored and 3 RBI in 28 AB. As for the pens, both team's pens have been struggling lately - averaging from 4.50 ERA to 6.55 ERA! Hopefully those two (young) teams continue pounding the ball tonight.

The play: Over 9.5 for 2 Units @ 1.98

 

[Unicorn]

8:35 San Francisco (Lincecum) @ COLORADO (Cook)<o></o>

The Giants have lost 6 games in a row, and 7 of their last 10. Although they showed good effort trying to break their skid, they just couldn't do it. Now their best pitcher, Tim Lincecum will start to end it, but with no run support (he's been getting around 2.5 runs per game for the season) no matter how good you pitch, your team has to hit - if you're to win. The best example is that all of Lincecum's starts this season have been quality ones, but Giants are (only) 5-3 when he pitches, while lately it's been even worse - they're only 1-3 over his L4 starts while he posted 2.25 ERA in that span. The Rockies are riding a 3-game winning streak, finally playing good ball lately and tonight will be going with their ace. Aaron Cook, if we forget his most recent start vs Arizona, he's been on his A game for pretty much all season so far. He'll be looking to get back on track tonight, and the situation is definitely looking good for him to pitch a good game - he's been 2-0, 1.99 ERA with 0.84 whip at home (Rockies are 3-0 in his home starts) while he's posted 2.77 ERA in night starts. Considering he'll be going on 5 days rest, he's been much better in this situation, posting a 4-0, 1.47 ERA with .219 BAA. Over the last 2 seasons, Cook has posted 2 quality starts vs SF at home with only 1 bad start. Comparing the pens, Colorado have better situation there, too - 3.46 ERA combined for their home starts and L10 starts vs Giant's 4.98 ERA (road/L10) although lately the difference between their pens has been like day and night (1.69 COL vs 6.08 SF). Most of the Rockies hitters have great numbers vs Lincecum. As for the Giants - Durham, Lewis, Molina, Rowand and Vizquel are combined 26-for-78 (.333 BA) vs Cook while Aurilla, Castillo and Winn are only 8-for-44 (.182 BA) vs him.

The play: Colorado ML for 3 Units @ 1.75

 

[Unicorn]

10:05 ST.LOUIS (Pineiro) @ San Diego (Maddux)

The Cards, winners of their last 3 games, have been playing better lately, going 5-5 over their last 10 games. They're playing with confidence and although they're going with arguably their "worst" SP, Joel Pineiro - I like them again in this 2nd game of this series. Pineiro hasn't been the pitcher we all may remember from his (good old) days in Seattle's uniform, but from time to time, he can pitch a good game. The encouraging thing is - he's walked only 10 batters in 38.1 innings so far this season. Also, he's been shining in night starts, posting a 2-0, 2.12 ERA with 1.06 WHIP while limiting the opponents to only .273 OBP. He's been getting great run support of ~ 5.8 runs per game and good news is that, although most of the Padres hitters have good numbers vs him, the 2 most important guys, Giles and Gonzales haven't - they're only 3-for-19 (.158 BA) vs Joel. His "opponent" tonight will be Greg Maddux who's been all over the place this season and the velocity of his pitches is way off compared to "good old Maddux" we used to watch in the past. The other thing is that whole Padres team is demoralized, being the team with the worst WL record in the Majors. They're playing really bad baseball now, from defensive aspect they aren't good, pitching may be solid from time to time but offense is just dead. They're now 0-23 when trailing after the 7th inning meaning their bullpen sucks, too (4.68 ERA over the last 10 games, although Cards' pen has been even worse - 5.28 ERA L10 games!). On the other side - as I've said, Cards are playing good baseball and what's most important - from offensive standpoint, they've been heating up!

The play: St.Louis ML for 3 Units @ 2.01


That's all from me for tonight, have a good night everyone.

Cheers! :cheers: