Tuesday MLB-- finally a play

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
since 7/28 Posted on CTG

40-18, (+38,245)--- ML, RL and Totals

__________________________________________________

More than a week since my last MLB play.. Just haven't found any spots that I really liked. Last Sunday (10/5) I was 2-0 hitting Phils with top unit play and dog (+143) Angels on a 4 unit play adding more than 11 units to the good.. Would like to finish up MLB at the +80 unit mark---getting close.. 69% pretty decent when you consider the decent amount of dogs and low favs in the run.

Like this:

Tampa +129; 4 units WIN

The team I am betting on has a pitcher that has faced the team I am betting against twice in the past month. In those starts my pitcher has gone 13 innings, 7 hits, 0ERs, 2BB and 12 K's.

My pitcher is opposing a pitcher that hasn't pitched in more than two weeks and in his last outing vs my team he pitched 2.1 IP, 6ER, 3 HRs. And is 0-3 this years vs my team in games he has started. In fact this guy gave up 17ERs in 23 IP in the month of September.

My team is hitting very well and the other team is not

Now here is the cool part.. I get my team at +money.. Yep.. Play on.
 
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I locked it in as my time is short this afternoon but may want to wait on number as I suspect the Red Sox money will move it our way.. Many people will bet this purely on the fact that this is must-win time for Boston.. Boston may win, but the numbers clearly suggest otherwise.. Just my opinion and where my money is at..:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
I locked it in as my time is short this afternoon but may want to wait on number as I suspect the Red Sox money will move it our way.. Many people will bet this purely on the fact that this is must-win time for Boston.. Boston may win, but the numbers clearly suggest otherwise.. Just my opinion and where my money is at..:cheers:
Click to expand...
Good look bro, I'm going to see what happens throughout the day. BOL to ya, I'm liking these early posts :smiley_acbe:!
 
Mags said:
I'm liking these early posts :smiley_acbe:!
Click to expand...

won't last...

Maybe someone can relate to this, perhaps not..But has anyone posted on here early and then inexplicably forget to put the actual play in only to discover it later? Did it at HT a couple weeks ago and of course it was a game I won... So typically I post when I play and I rarely play them real early.. Works for VK and CB and others but not for me..:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
won't last...

Maybe someone can relate to this, perhaps not..But has anyone posted on here early and then inexplicably forget to put the actual play in only to discover it later? Did it at HT a couple weeks ago and of course it was a game I won... So typically I post when I play and I rarely play them real early.. Works for VK and CB and others but not for me..:cheers:
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No bro, I completely understand as I usually don't lock anything in too early unless something really jumps out at me and I anticipate alot of line movement. :tiphat:
 
Down to +123.. Slowly moved down and I would be surprised if it reversed.. If you plan to play, would lock it in now.
 
If they win tonight and I believe they will, I will make a large wager that they lose Thursday. I think they want to bring it back to Tampa :smiley_acbe:
 
Guess I'm the only one on CTG with the contrarian view that Wake pitches well enough to keep the Sox in the game and we go to Game 5 @ 2 apiece. I think Fenway is a lot more lively tonight with the champs backs up against the wall....

Sox win 6-4 (2 units)

GL to everyone!
 
HereWeGo said:
Guess I'm the only one on CTG with the contrarian view that Wake pitches well enough to keep the Sox in the game and we go to Game 5 @ 2 apiece. I think Fenway is a lot more lively tonight with the champs backs up against the wall....

Sox win 6-4 (2 units)

GL to everyone!
Click to expand...

Have Ray series and small Rays ML play as well. I dont doubt that Wake pitches well but he has had a long layoff and wonder if that hurts his command some . Thing I remember is that while Wake enjoyed success vs TB for along time the past 5 or 6 starts he had only 1 good one and that was @ TB where its indoors and most domes Wake has great history in Jays, Twins , TB... Also factoring into my decision was I recall TB smoking RA Dickey @ Seattle now Dickeyis now Wakefield but you see the connection . Aybar had 2 HRs that day and believe he hit from the RH side vs Dickey (he is a SWH) ....

So also looking at the 1st 5 under or maybe game under but hate the pens getting involved . Maybe RHE UNDER as well.....

Under the radar is since the consecutive Fenway sweeps TB is now 9-3 the past 12 meetings including 3-1 @ Fenway .

As tee pointed out Sonnastine not only pitched well more importantly is he did it up against Josh Beckett .

PA** AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss
+-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
Carl Crawford 85 82 25 4 3 2 10 1 5 .305 .329 .500 .829 0 0 0 2 2
Carlos Pena 37 30 4 1 0 1 3 6 3 .133 .270 .267 .537 0 1 0 0 0
Akinori Iwamura 29 24 10 3 0 0 2 5 1 .417 .517 .542 1.059 0 0 0 0 0
Rocco Baldelli 28 26 3 0 0 0 4 1 5 .115 .179 .115 .294 0 0 0 1 0
B.J. Upton 26 22 5 0 0 0 1 3 4 .227 .308 .227 .535 0 1 0 0 0
Jason Bartlett 22 21 6 3 0 1 3 1 0 .286 .318 .571 .889 0 0 0 0 0
Dioner Navarro 16 15 5 1 0 0 3 1 1 .333 .375 .400 .775 0 0 0 0 0
Gabe Gross 13 12 3 0 0 1 1 1 1 .250 .308 .500 .808 0 0 0 0 0
Cliff Floyd 11 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .091 .091 .091 .182 0 0 0 0 1
Evan Longoria 8 6 3 1 0 0 1 2 1 .500 .625 .667 1.292 0 0 0 0 0
Dan Johnson 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .167 .167 .167 .334 0 0 0 0 0
Willy Aybar 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 1.000 1.000 4.000 5.000 0 0 0 0 0
Fernando Perez 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1.000 1.000 4.000 5.000 0 0 0 0 0
+-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
Total 283 257 68 13 3 7 31 21 24 .265 .325 .420 .745 0 2 0 3 3

Only Pena really struggles vs Wake and Upton has some issues as well . Other then that everyone fairs pretty decent or better . Aybar only 1-1 but he also feasted on Dickey with 2HRs.


PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss
+-----------------+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
Kevin Youkilis 14 12 1 1 0 0 1 0 4 .083 .143 .167 .310 0 1 0 1 0
Jason Varitek 12 10 5 0 0 1 4 2 3 .500 .583 .800 1.383 0 0 0 0 0
Dustin Pedroia 17 15 3 1 0 0 1 1 1 .200 .294 .267 .561 0 0 0 1 1
David Ortiz 17 16 3 1 1 0 1 1 2 .188 .235 .375 .610 0 0 0 0 1
Jed Lowrie 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 .600 .600 .800 1.400 0 0 0 0 0
Mark Kotsay 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Jacoby Ellsbury 12 12 3 0 0 1 2 0 2 .250 .250 .500 .750 0 0 0 0 1
J.D. Drew 11 11 4 1 0 1 3 0 1 .364 .364 .727 1.091 0 0 0 0 0
Coco Crisp 11 10 3 1 0 0 2 1 2 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 1
Kevin Cash 2 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
Jason Bay 6 5 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 .200 .167 .400 .567 0 1 0 0 0
+-----------------+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
Total 112 103 27 7 1 3 17 5 21 .262 .304 .437 .741 0 2 0 2 4


So while the price is fair on paper seems like TB just has to many edges here . I dont like so called popular underdogs like TB is but everyonce in awhile I have to bite .

:cheers:
 
gl teedub.... didnt playin anything but small lean towards the rays as well.:cheers:

i think it will be the most interesting game of the series so far to watch, only because of how incosnsistent and hit or miss both pitchers are

we have wake the knuckleballer, who has been known to throw beachballs at times to serve em for the longball.
and sonnanstine, with the deceptive and weird looking delivery, who has a shitload of pitches in his arsenal but no velocity on his fastball

whichever team wins, should win by 2-3.its really going to come down to which SP shows up, and which gets lit up and an early exit:popcorn:
 
Also Boston scored 2runs and 1 run when TB started a RHP this series . Two of Boston 3 wins vs TB were shutouts by Lester and now Dice K. The other they bombed Kazmir . So TB 9 w 3 L last 12 meetings they need 2 shutouts and a LHSP to get a win ...vs RHP Bos wisn 3-0 with lester and 2-0 with DiceK

Boston scored in these 12
@ TB 4 1 6 - Guess who ? Yep , Kazmir started when Boston scored 6 .
home 3 4 2 - Guess who ? Yep , Kazmir started the game when Boston scored 4 runs.
@ TB 13 1 3 - Guess who?? Yep , Kazmir started in the loss when they scored 13 runs
playoffs 2 8 1 - Guess who?? Yep , Kazmir again started the playoff game with 8 runs.

So vs the 8 RHPs they faced Garza , Shields , Sonnastine and EJack they scored 4 runs ONCE and 3 runs or less the other 7 times !!! (1 run 3x , 2runs 2x , 3runs 2x)


Boston TT under ??? Little uneasy seeing Sonnastine for the 3rd time in a month but not much else ...

:cheers:
 
Just an obscure stat

tonight's game is played on the heels of the last 2 playoff games having been won by the Dog. 4 times previously this post season the Dog has won consecutive games, and everytime the Fav has won the subsequently played game - in other words, the Dog is 0-4 SU trying to win a 3rd straight game this p.s.

0-5 or 1-4 will be decided in 3 hours or so
 
SN, doesn't the over cash at a ridiculous rate with Cash behind the plate? I remember this from earlier this year...
 
Boston hitters can come out of a 3-0 deficit, but can Wakefield hold his own is the question. Masterson will be in there soon enough.
 
3 runs ain't gonna win this but good start for the good guys..

That is a loggerhead turtle in your avatar BC. Saw the biggest one I have ever seen diving in the keys last week. On Molasses reef.. If any divers out there they will know exactly the spot.. Head was as big as a trash can lid.. Deep side of Molasses, under a ledge at around 45 feet.
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HereWeGo said:
SN, doesn't the over cash at a ridiculous rate with Cash behind the plate? I remember this from earlier this year...
Click to expand...

Sorry I missed this bouncing around bewteen NHL with Tru and arguing my brains out on the BYU /TCU game.

I just made small plays on the UNDER 1st 5 innings and Boston TT under . This TB-Bos rivalry swung imo after the 6 straight wins @ Fenway . So the only stuff I weigh is those last 12 meetings which Boston scored more then 3 runs just 1 time facing a RHP and that was 4 runs . New Boston team minus Manny as I said Bay has been very solid but he also doesnt hit behind Ortiz who has seen a decrease in production. Also losing Mike Lowell tremendous loss . Wake very solid numbers at home and such same with Sonnastine .

Just faded the expectation of Wake getting shelled with TB trend of holding Boston to 4 or less . However its 5-0 top 3 now ....so a split would be nice ...:cheers:
 
Glad I didnt have much on the under here and hope no one paid attention to that comment .....

TB 10-1 t6th !! 4 more and I feel safe up 2 TDs
 
Congrats all TB backers especially Tee for starting the thread . Thanks HWG . Barely held on to hit the Boston team Under 4.5 +110 runs so washed out the 1stt 5 inn under play . Shocked at the score actually . Though research pays as Boston has not broken 4 runs vs a TB RHSP in the past 13 meetings .

Happy to have both Philly and TB series tickets with 3-1 leads hopefully both end next game .
 
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