I needed to try something new to get out of this sloppy phase I am recently . When you hit OAK ML / +1.5 , SEA ML / +1.5 , SD ML and dont make any profit because you forced SFG & Over {BIG} the opposite of your original lean something has to change .
Today's thoughts :
Balt @ Chi-
Burres is back from a stint in the minors . He initially was throwing in relief but made a start vs Charlotte ( WS AAA) on 8-17 which was very solid 6inn 3h 1 r 1bb 5k. Kinda ironic he gets to start vs the big club and I am sure it was easyto getting scouting reports on him but really who needs them ? Burres isnt going to wow anyone . He is LH if he throws strikes and gets ahead he will be successful when he doesnt he wont. This kid has the craziest trend ever on days of rest. Being a good amateur pitcher growing up I know very well how days in bewteen work can affect command and velocity . Naturally pro players on better regimens then I . Anyway take a peek-
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>< 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1.80</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>5.0</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.250</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>8.40</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>50.1</TD><TD align=right>81</TD><TD align=right>49</TD><TD align=right>47</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.363</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3.38</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>50.2</TD><TD align=right>49</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.254</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
One thing about the CBS stats is they actually label them WRONG . There 5 days rest is actually pitching every 5th day meaning 4 days rest , the less the 5 days rest would be actually working on 3 days of rest or SHORT rest , and greater then 5 days is tricky and would say look at the game logs to see the varying differences of days as to me pitching anything more then an extra day rest is different then pitching on the 6th day as its not that different but 7 and 8 days bewteen starts can mean rust for some. Just wanted to clear that up ...
Here it appears it will be 9days since his last work which to me is alot but to him seems okay . The minor league start was on 7 days , in april when he was successful he was on 8 ,7 ,6 days in 3of his 4 starts , in May vs TB and wash he was on 6 days , in June he had Pitt and Houston {even vs KC he threw 1 inn in relief but was 11 days bewteen starts } , in July at Boston on6 dyas and vs Det on 9 days ...
Actually the 1 relief app showing in the EXTENDED rest stats was 1inn 3h 1 r so his stats even a tad better subtracting that ...
Also look at who Burres faced the guy had ZERO easy opponents IMO really .. who is weak @ Oak maybe vs KC in the early pasrt of the season ...away @ Texas , @ TB , @ WSox(8 inn 3 h 0runs btw) , @Oak (probably the healthiest Oak lineup ever was),@KC , NYY(twice) , @Tor , @Boston then at home NYY (twice) to which he faced NYY 3 times by the end of May and they didnt touch him the 1st two after facing them in start #3 which was B2B vs same opponents he got torched finally , vs TB , Wash , Boston , Pitt , Houston , KC , Texas , Det , LAA >> So to me thats maybe 5 below avg lineups he faced ...Of 10 starts he was solid IMO in 6 of 10 anytime yo get 6 inn and 3 runs its decent work sometimes he went 5.2 and 3 runs but usually it was the 6th that gave him trouble in those ..of the 4 bad starts he had 1 where he held together and that was vs Pitt struggled early in a high scoring game but lasted 6inn allowing 6 runs ...otherwise NYY , Boston and LAA bombed him
Now with Chicago and Floyd we have to look at the big picture cause to me thats how you approach big chalk and this to me is big cause its road chalk ...
Floyd has struggled vs LHBs allowing 38BBs , 14Hrs and respectable 244BAA but 22pts higher then vs RHB. Of course not odd as he is RHP but Balt key bats are LH Roberts(switch) , Markakis (better road splits much better) , Huff , and Scott may play as well in the OF.
Floyd has been tremendous at home but mostly due to 3 or 4 starts where he was near perfect ...
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Home</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>3.35</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>91.1</TD><TD align=right>67</TD><TD align=right>46</TD><TD align=right>34</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>34</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>77</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>.202</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Away</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>4.43</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>61.0</TD><TD align=right>65</TD><TD align=right>36</TD><TD align=right>30</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>.272</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
He always seems to be hurt by his defense as alot of errors are made when he starts -hence 18 UNEARNED runs so far(also making his ERA fake IMO) ..so look at the difference BAA 70 pts higher away , 30 less inn but only 7 less walks but scary is the K rate -33 in 61 inn vs 77 in 91inn so all this clearly shows MUCH more hittable on the road , not that Balt can really but teams run on Floyd 29 /34 in SB attempts . Also avgs about 5.5 inn per start compared to 6.5 at home .
Also Floyd seems to solid from inn 1 to 4 but then once they have that 2nd maybe 3 atbat his stats disingrate
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Last 7 Appearances</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>4.20</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>40.2</TD><TD align=right>45</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>35</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.278</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Pre All-Star</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>3.63</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>111.2</TD><TD align=right>87</TD><TD align=right>59</TD><TD align=right>45</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>47</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>75</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>.213</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Just to show the difference Floyd started the year with .178 BAA and .204 BAA in April and May with his last 7 starts being post break and are his 2nd H stats.
He is on 6 days here and has 3 recent starts on 6 days on the road @ LAD , @ Texas , and @ Det ..the best was a 6-5 gift win @ Det they trailed with 2 out in the 9th 6inn9h 4r 3er 3bb 4k otherwise 5.1 inn 6h 5r 4er 2bb 2k @ LAD and @ texas when they were still hitting and humid 2.2 inn 5h 6r 6er 7bb 2k ...obviously not very good..
Now also I noticed that Floyd has done well vs the AL Central and had only 1 or 2 hiccups vs them . So I looked at his stats AL central vs the rest and I could be adding wrong did it quick
77.1 inn 66h 35r 27er 9hrs 24bb 59K Central
75.0 inn 66h 47r37er 14Hrs 37bb 51K vs rest
Dude gets crazy support at home. All season only 3x less then 6 runs when he started ...a 5 spot and 1 run twice ...7 7 7 1 9 12 5 13 9 6 1 10 6 15(108 in 14 starts=7 per start). Funny part is the 1 run starts where very good vs LAA and KC .
Away different story --
5 5 1 3 2 6 0 2 6 8 4 (42 runs in 11 starts or just shy of 4 runs per)
So lets take out the road starts vs the AL Central(these are NOT bolded) -
In Bold-
5 - L6-5 @Balt but picthed very well 6inn 2h 2r 0er 2bb 4k
Of interest it was in April when he was his sharpest 1st 2 months of the year and Balt was not hitting anywhere near like it has past few months even with the recent downturn (not a slump just slowin down abit)
3- L6-3 @ Seattle - Not suprising he struggled as he was off his NEAR No-no at home vs DET . 3.2 inn 9h 5 r 5er
2- Won 2-0 @ SFG - Well it was May and while SFG hasnt played well all year at home it was probably around this time where it was at its worst especially on offense ...
0- Lost 5-0 @ LAD - LAD was slumping offensively and they eventually got to FLoyd belive in the 6th ...5.1 inn 6h 5r 4er
2- Lost 7-2 @ Texas was just awful couldnt throw strikes with 7 bbs in 2.2 inn with 5h 6r 6er
4- Lost @ Oak 6-4. This was the most recent and lets face how long has it been since OAK hit ? the have consistently maxed out at 3 runs for awhile now. FLoyd was lifted in the 6th inn so 5.2 inn 6 h 2r 1 er 2bb 4K ...sort of what I would call avg seeing who the opponent was...
Thats 6 starts out of division and he is 1-5 in those and checked he is 4-1 vs the Central away losing 3-1 @ Minny...also 6 starts and 16 runs of support and just 11 in the past 5 and 9 of the 16 in 2 starts...So here he gets 2.75 runs of support......
WSox away vs LHSP - .252 avg all season
4 13 2 4 5 6 11 2 0 3 1 4 0 2 3 2 8 3 - since April 16th
Thats 9-9 SU and only 5x scoring more then 4 runs
-8 vs Washburn @ Seattle - self explatanory as WASh is better away then home and is medicore at best
-11 vs Harrison @ Texas- obviously self explatanory
-6 vs Nate Robertson the 2nd time they saw him after losing the 1st with 4 runs sscored
-5 vs Perkins @ Minny - nice job as the Perkins around a bit think 4 runs in 6inn
-13 vs Gio Gonazlez who has struggled his past 2 after looking solid early and is a ROOKIE
I guess its a matter of opinion if they improved as the season wore on. To me they really didnt and if they did it was slight especially for such a RH lineup. At home they were like 16-4 last I checked vs a LHSP. Two of the 5 higher scoring games were rookies , 1 vs Washburn a junk LHP , 1 vs Robertson see Washburn comment and 1 vs a solid but nothing special LH inPerkins .
Is Burres far off from these guys ? They edged Chris Waters 4-3 and had lost @ Stults 2-0 , slide by Kerhsaw 2-0 who is clearly a tough young SP at home ...
Floyd has opposed LHP Braden vs OAK , Livan vs Minny , Robertson vs DET , Mendoza vs texas , Stults vs LAD , Westbrook vs Cle , Sanchez vs SFG , Batista vs SEA, Boonser vs Minny and Guthrie vs BAlt...also DTrain in the 1st week which I didnt include as 1st week of the season is still almost Spring Training and WSox did beat 2o f 3 LHP ...they hit CC(who was terrible in April ) , Robertson and DTrain
I forgot how long this writueps took !!! Thats just 1 game !! All this is what goes through myhead as I am looking at the stats .....
Balt has lost 4-3 , won the suspended game 4-3 , lost to NYY 8-7 and 7-5 ...have to think if Balt doesnt win the 1+1.5 RL doesnt come to into play..so either ML or for value sakes -1.5 RL with BALT....
Of note as well see the recent WSox games especially vs TB they couldnt hold leads and barely won a game on SUND they could not lose and really the same yesterday as with a 3-3 game they are in position to steal an easy win and dont , then in a must win again in the real game they edge Balt 4-3 ..
Just not hitting well as all weekend they stranded runners vs TB and didnt do much yesterday ...Joe Crede has returned for WSox ..displacing Juan Uribe I assume.
Play: Orioles ML +140 {3units}
(Gonna use the 1 to 3 unit scale for plays in the foreseable future)Reason I am making it a strong play is what I believe to be an overvalued team and SP going not so much the clarity in how Burres will pitch or Balt will play ...just situational to me all lines up for Balt and think they have about a 60% chance of winning this game which the line says WSox have a 60% chance of winning....nice discrepancy in my eyes....Also Danks on deck vs Liz is a good spot for CHI IMO. Danks is very consistent and a good LHP can give Balt problems as I have seen Pettitte do it a few times and Liz has command issues and WSox are very much like NYY used to be patient and working pitches to high pitch counts ...Also Balt starts a trip after tmrw @ TB and @ Boston which they dont want to start off a home sweeps do they ? But th fake 4-3 win maybe changes that , who knows? Think the total is a tad high would see 10.5 -110 as correct based on everything so at 11 runs lean UNDER but who wants to buck the Orioles trend of consecutive UNDERS (though by closing lines it did occur recently at home ) ...
Trends -
-WSox away with 11 or 11.5 totals only 1-0 UND and 3-0 UND in past 3 seasons but 52-35 UND since 1997 but thats tough to make relevant .
-After week 1 the Sox went Under 8 off 11 away vs LHSP including 5-1 when it was L v L and since have gone 5-2 OVER vs LH but 2-1 UNDER when its L v L ...
So in those 18 games 10-8 UNDER but 7-2 UNDER when its LH vs LH which its not here with FLoyd(actually 21 games include the 3 in week 1 11-10 UND all year and 11-10 SU)
-Now Balt is 8-10 after 3 or more consecutive losses and 9-7-1 Over but also 43-23 OVER L3 years which can be attributed to shit pitching I assume..which is why they were losing and on streaks to begin with
-balt 4-6 as a hone pup and 7-2-1 UNDER
-they are 1-2 at home with 11 or 11.5 totals but 3-0 over (yesterday closed at 12)
Thats about enough of Balt vs Chicago .....
CLE @ Det thoughts:
Well Cle is Playing well but still think they are beating teams who are playing medicore even though I felt DET played 2 solid road series but then again TEX and KC were 2 ofthe medicore teams CLE swept ...
Lambert gets his ML debut -
<TABLE class=dataTableClass id=table_2 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR class="dataRow odd"><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 120px" align=left>Home Games</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>9</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>2</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 33px" align=middle>2.44</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>14</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>14</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>1</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>85.0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>68</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>26</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>23</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>28</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>73</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 36px" align=middle>0.96</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>.221</TD></TR><TR class="dataRow even"><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 120px" align=left>Away Games</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>3</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>6</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 33px" align=middle>4.90</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>12</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>12</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>2</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>1</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>64.1</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>75</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>43</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>35</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>7</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>20</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>51</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 36px" align=middle>0.77</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>.292</TD></TR><TR class="dataRow odd"><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 120px" align=left>Day Games</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>1</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>3</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 33px" align=middle>4.42</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>7</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>7</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>1</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>36.2</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>41</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>20</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>18</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>4</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>15</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>32</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 36px" align=middle>0.73</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>.287</TD></TR><TR class="dataRow even"><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 120px" align=left>Night Games</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>11</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>5</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 33px" align=middle>3.20</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>19</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>19</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>2</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>1</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>112.2</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>102</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>49</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>40</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>3</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>33</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>92</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 36px" align=middle>0.92</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>.242</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I guess the good news is he is making a night start at home and not a day start on the road.
As I said yesterday DET goes from -220 or -230 to +150 at home in 1 game ...Its not like CLE smoke them as they won another game they could have easily lost had the home team hitwith MOB late in the game ...Game 2 always better for the travel factor to kick in ...
Basically Cle and DET have the same record BUT CLE is 27-38 away and after winning a few straight 21-30 vs its division . Det is 33-29 at home and 23-32 in division . Really hard for me to believe that CLE would be higher then -240 if that high had they been home ...which is sort of what -165/-170 makes me think cause remember CLE is a weak road team ...I would expect more like -140 tops here for CLE ....the Tribe has won 3 straight 1 run games and the other by 2 runs so this 4 game streak is based on being +5 runs in 4 wins .....tight margin IMO
Det though has in the past 2 weeks lost to Purcey ,Waters , Olson and Zach Jackson at home ..all young LHSP ......they did beat G.Smith and Meyer 2 young LH but also lost to Braden ...thats 2-5 last 7 vs LHSP all medicore at best ...hey lost 7-6 to Danks more thanks to Verlander though , they lost 3-2 to Perkins ...which makes 2-7 L9 at home vs LHSP ...Previous to this they beat
Sowers 9-2 , Francis 7-6 , Kershaw 5-4 , Buerhle 2-1 , lst to Lee 8-2 but that was On Dtrain getting smoked in 2 innings , beat Sowers 5-2 and Laffey 8-4 , lost t Perkins 6-1 and beat Washburn 8-4 , beat Igawa 6-5 and lost to Buerhle 13-2
so 8-3 but sort of unimpressive as they beat a bunch of weak SPs and half were by 1 run ...
Anyway now they are just 10-10 at home vs LHSP ...Two key bats Thames and Guillen questionable and Thames is there LH masher IMO...
Lee struggles vs DET though going 0-6 at home and 2-2 away with 2 1 run losses but seems to pitch at DET then at home when he faces them . Last start he was spotted a big lead and eventually gave it back and the 1st start he was again spotted a big lead but lasted just 5 innings 6h 2 r ...despite being up 8-0..so 10inn 16h 8r in 2 starts 2bb 10k 2hrs allowed
Interested in Det +1.5 RL with Lees struggles IF Thames and Guillen sit not sure would an UND interest me (dont think so) .....Even though those are the 2 weakest statistically vs LEE who DET has great indivual splits vs 60/195 142bs 1 triple 10Hrs 32 rbi 17bbs 38Ks....Pretty amazing that only Det , Texas and reds have better then 3 ERA s vs him while Det and texas faced him twice reds was just 1 start...He is 18-2 but also 1-4 in no decisions so 19-6 all year or 76%...11-3 away(about 78%) with two 1 run losses and the 2 run loss @ Cincy ..away he has 8 starts where he allowed 2 or less , 1 where allowed 3 runs , plus 3 more where he allowed 4 leaving just 2 teams to get more then 5 runs away when he picthed texas & Cincy ......
Boston @ Yanks :
Playing NYY here . They have finally done something of revelance sweeping BALT when throwing Rasner and Pavano in the series...Boston was okay IMO @ Tor they got the 1st game vs Marcum who was sent down afterwards , they lost 11- to Litsch as Lester finally got hit and two SP in DiceK and Burnett saw Boston outlast Tor...
Pettitte has strung 3 consecutive good starts together and IMO getting better each time although Tor vs LHP isnt a great test. he gets an extra day here....
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3.22</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>36.1</TD><TD align=right>35</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>40</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.252</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
He continues to excel vs LHBs holding them to 196 . He was solid the 2nd meeting Boston and the 1st one while he wasnt sharp he also was hurt by shaky defense early and some nicely placed Bos hits. He himslef said this is a HUGE series for them as they dont need to sweep but must take 2 of 3 ....Also his most recent starts on 6 or 7 days were very good ...@ Shea late June , vs Oak after the break and next after that @ Fenway ......
Wake hs struggled some vs NYY since the Boone Hr in 2003 I think losing 4 of 5 starts here . yanks MUST be patient with him and iof anything our lineup has greatly improved since Pettitte beat Wake @ Fenway while Boston has lost Lowell and traded Manny and assume Drew is out as well while adding Bay who did hit Pettitte well in the NL and Lowrie getting more time at SS....
Jose Molina should catch which seems to be a plus for the YANKS SPs....Wake is also coming off the DL with a shoulder strain now I tend to overlook pitchers with not arm injuries off the DL but clearly his is an arm issue ....so a question mark IMO and Boston middle relief has been an issue at times...
Price seems about right to me ...Wake was -120 @ Boston with the changed lineup and such think best case it would now be -110 /-110 PK so could see -165 even -170 as fair priced....
Both teams SUCK in series OPENERS after wins but Bost is terrible at 7-18 or 28% while NYY is 11-17 which is about 40%....
Before Balt the Yanks had LOST all 7 SERIES OPENERS Since the Boston series!! though 3 of them were basically lost in the last inning ..walkoff @ TExas , 2-1 @ Tor and 4-3 vs KC the Mo blown game that was tied ! So they have played well enough to be 4-4 in those games...
8 of 11 recent Yanks home series UNDERS have gone UNDER...Boston is 4-0-2 OVER on this trip....
Pettitte is 13-4 UND @ Night and 9-4 UNDER at home . His run support at home is 5runs exactly but also had 2 starts vs SEA and KC where he recieved DD runs ..Wake is 3.28 ERA at Nigh allowing 3.78 run in his starts but he also only receives 4 runs of support on the road ...despite dropping 4 of 5 @ NYY he has pitched fairly well inthose games its at Fenway where they hit him hard in 4 of the 5 recent starts....
Both days off to give the pens a blwo maybe 1st game of the series played a bit tight with big implications and even last ever visit to the STADIUM (a distraction??)
Wake though a question mark (same injury as last year)with ONLY 2 bad starts all season on the road ...7.2 in 15h 15 14er 4hrs 6bb 6ks .....somehow wake has led boston to just 4 wins in 13 starts away (4-9 ).......the other 11 Wake road starts in 2008 read: 74.1 Inn 54 H 25R 22 ER 7Hr 22BB 48Ks - damn solid !
PLAYS: Yankees ML -160{3units} and under 9.5 -120 {in for 1.5units but might make 2 units)
Tor @ TB thoughts ;
Tough game since I preached how attractive TB is at home near even MONEY when they have simply WON 43 of 54 there !! Especially since TB gave WSox all they could handle this weekend but so did Tor to Boston and TB could have lost al 3 had WS extnded there leads rather then allow TB to hang around...
Big thing is Shields has but 1 loss at home but Halladay is 14-4 since April ended when he starts vs THE AL losing twice to CLE AND TB but has lost to TB 3 times this year all in the same manner a close game which Tor couldnt break open that TB finally did with abig inning after the 5th ..the two key contributors for TB are OUT though Crawford and Longoria ...Carl is 5-11 while Longoria has 1Hr 8 RBI in 11 abs and they had 4 of the 7 XBH off him including 2 triples !!
Halladay has a road ERA of 2.53 and allowed 2.79 runs when he starts away. WOW! Shields is 8-1 2.21 at home (13-1 when he starts) allowing a 2.57 ERA !! WOW!! Neither SP allows many SBs -4/6 vs Halladay and 1/5 vs Shields..no freebies...
Halladay is 0-3 vs TB and believe just twice in his career has been 0-4 vs a team possibly last year vs Boston...huge competitor great incentive IMO and nice situationally. Though he is nails when he is on EXTENDED rest which he is not here but actually threw less then 100 pitches last outing which is rare.
Shields has won his last 3 but barely at home.. LAA he won 4-2 and think TB rallied late 8in 9h 2r so he escaped some jams , then DET 6-5 he went 6.1 inn 9h 2runs and Oka 4-3 8.1 inn 6h 3 r but it was closer because think OAK lead 2-0 with 2 out b5th when TB woke up hit a 2run HR to tie and a solo shit to lead 3-2 which seemed to deflate the slumping A's team after that ....
So he is ripe IMO for a loss . He did well recently @ Tor but the jays bats were also ice cold and have improved lately with 3 DD efforts in the past 10 games .
Lean the UNDER as well not sure I add as I think Shields could get hit here ...
Play: Jays ML +100 {2units might take it 3 units) , Jays 1st score of game Prop {2units} ...maybe Tor 1st 5 inn ML as well .....
NL thoughts -
Cubs @ Pirates :
Think this price is crazy !
Cubs are a 500 road team this is NOT WRIGLEY field ! Snell ha shown improvement lately and said his velocity is coming back . Chi has struggled vs RHP on the road all season. They had a nice payback spot vs Karstens yesterday who had not been hit hard yet in his 4 starts for Pitt so he was ripe IMO. That game went off 180-190 and this is 40-50 cents higher facing a much better SP ? ambrano is very good but he doesnt seem to be lights out vs weak teams like Harden is . The Cubs pen in a close game ??
Zambrano lost 6-2 @ Pitt last year @ Pitt with Johnson behind the plate calling balls and strikes ...Zambrano has won 4 of 5 vs Pitt but had lost 5 straight before that. He was okay his lastouting vs Snell against them and good @ Pitt but struggled at home in the 1st 08 start...His last starts have been good at Pitt and he is just 2-2...Snell has ben increasinly better l3 starts and ben @ Philly and @ STL in 2 of them shutting down a HOT Cards lineup last outing.....
really only concerned by the week inbewteen starts for Snell (last Tues vs STL) but Zambrano who has healthw whispers also going on normal rest something he hasnt done past few outings either ...Leaned UNDER but dont like the move on the total .....Snells extended rest stats are bad but think more because of the fact he was mostly on the road as last year his ERA was 2.92 on extended rest but his BAA did climb about 15 pts ...
Plays: Mixed and matched bewteen +1.5 +125 and +200 for {3units} with more on the RL
LAD @ WASH thoughts :
So LAD was shutout on 13 hits ? Lowe has road issues but was sharp vs WASH @ LAD.....an 8 total with 2 unimpressive pens and questionable SP...?
Lowe ROAD ERA 5.88 BAA 330
Only 4 quality road starts imo of 12 at 1st glimpse ....
better on normal rest mucnh better but again most guys on normal rest at home and extended away the majority of starts...
Balester has been solid for a rookie on a bad team , teams have 300 off him at home and he is 0-4 in 5 starts on extra rest with a bAA above 300 as well compared to 250 in 3 normal rest starts..
Plays : 1unit each 1st 5 over and game over ...
Leaning : Over @ Philly ..Moyer on a roll with 13 straight allowing 3 or less but both pens scare me if I need an out ...Philly hitting better and Mets see Moyer for the 5th time in 2008 !Normal rest his BAA is 45 pts higher but his nIGHT ERA hovers around 3.00 but at home its almost 1.5 higher ..pedro pitching well late but tougher task here and not at home either ...away starts on a nice over run...
Thats what I have for 7PM probably more to add for me . Not sure I get back before starts so GL all !!!
Also Toby Hall catching for CHI always makes me think UNDER .....
Didnt get to anything past 7 PM and probably will pass on FLA @ ATL. Like Olsen as he is due for a win losing like 6 or 7 straight starts but not sure I want to go there with Jurrjens who wasnt as bad as the line looked @ Shea.....maybe UNDER ? 1st 5 ...who knows !
GL all !!:cheers:Hopefully this helps me get organized at least for 1/2 the card and proves helpful to you in some manner .....
GL all!
Today's thoughts :
Balt @ Chi-
Burres is back from a stint in the minors . He initially was throwing in relief but made a start vs Charlotte ( WS AAA) on 8-17 which was very solid 6inn 3h 1 r 1bb 5k. Kinda ironic he gets to start vs the big club and I am sure it was easyto getting scouting reports on him but really who needs them ? Burres isnt going to wow anyone . He is LH if he throws strikes and gets ahead he will be successful when he doesnt he wont. This kid has the craziest trend ever on days of rest. Being a good amateur pitcher growing up I know very well how days in bewteen work can affect command and velocity . Naturally pro players on better regimens then I . Anyway take a peek-
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>< 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1.80</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>5.0</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.250</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>8.40</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>50.1</TD><TD align=right>81</TD><TD align=right>49</TD><TD align=right>47</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.363</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3.38</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>50.2</TD><TD align=right>49</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.254</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
One thing about the CBS stats is they actually label them WRONG . There 5 days rest is actually pitching every 5th day meaning 4 days rest , the less the 5 days rest would be actually working on 3 days of rest or SHORT rest , and greater then 5 days is tricky and would say look at the game logs to see the varying differences of days as to me pitching anything more then an extra day rest is different then pitching on the 6th day as its not that different but 7 and 8 days bewteen starts can mean rust for some. Just wanted to clear that up ...
Here it appears it will be 9days since his last work which to me is alot but to him seems okay . The minor league start was on 7 days , in april when he was successful he was on 8 ,7 ,6 days in 3of his 4 starts , in May vs TB and wash he was on 6 days , in June he had Pitt and Houston {even vs KC he threw 1 inn in relief but was 11 days bewteen starts } , in July at Boston on6 dyas and vs Det on 9 days ...
Actually the 1 relief app showing in the EXTENDED rest stats was 1inn 3h 1 r so his stats even a tad better subtracting that ...
Also look at who Burres faced the guy had ZERO easy opponents IMO really .. who is weak @ Oak maybe vs KC in the early pasrt of the season ...away @ Texas , @ TB , @ WSox(8 inn 3 h 0runs btw) , @Oak (probably the healthiest Oak lineup ever was),@KC , NYY(twice) , @Tor , @Boston then at home NYY (twice) to which he faced NYY 3 times by the end of May and they didnt touch him the 1st two after facing them in start #3 which was B2B vs same opponents he got torched finally , vs TB , Wash , Boston , Pitt , Houston , KC , Texas , Det , LAA >> So to me thats maybe 5 below avg lineups he faced ...Of 10 starts he was solid IMO in 6 of 10 anytime yo get 6 inn and 3 runs its decent work sometimes he went 5.2 and 3 runs but usually it was the 6th that gave him trouble in those ..of the 4 bad starts he had 1 where he held together and that was vs Pitt struggled early in a high scoring game but lasted 6inn allowing 6 runs ...otherwise NYY , Boston and LAA bombed him
Now with Chicago and Floyd we have to look at the big picture cause to me thats how you approach big chalk and this to me is big cause its road chalk ...
Floyd has struggled vs LHBs allowing 38BBs , 14Hrs and respectable 244BAA but 22pts higher then vs RHB. Of course not odd as he is RHP but Balt key bats are LH Roberts(switch) , Markakis (better road splits much better) , Huff , and Scott may play as well in the OF.
Floyd has been tremendous at home but mostly due to 3 or 4 starts where he was near perfect ...
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Home</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>3.35</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>91.1</TD><TD align=right>67</TD><TD align=right>46</TD><TD align=right>34</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>34</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>77</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>.202</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Away</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>4.43</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>61.0</TD><TD align=right>65</TD><TD align=right>36</TD><TD align=right>30</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>.272</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
He always seems to be hurt by his defense as alot of errors are made when he starts -hence 18 UNEARNED runs so far(also making his ERA fake IMO) ..so look at the difference BAA 70 pts higher away , 30 less inn but only 7 less walks but scary is the K rate -33 in 61 inn vs 77 in 91inn so all this clearly shows MUCH more hittable on the road , not that Balt can really but teams run on Floyd 29 /34 in SB attempts . Also avgs about 5.5 inn per start compared to 6.5 at home .
Also Floyd seems to solid from inn 1 to 4 but then once they have that 2nd maybe 3 atbat his stats disingrate
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Last 7 Appearances</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>4.20</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>40.2</TD><TD align=right>45</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>35</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.278</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Pre All-Star</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>3.63</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>111.2</TD><TD align=right>87</TD><TD align=right>59</TD><TD align=right>45</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>47</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>75</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>.213</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Just to show the difference Floyd started the year with .178 BAA and .204 BAA in April and May with his last 7 starts being post break and are his 2nd H stats.
He is on 6 days here and has 3 recent starts on 6 days on the road @ LAD , @ Texas , and @ Det ..the best was a 6-5 gift win @ Det they trailed with 2 out in the 9th 6inn9h 4r 3er 3bb 4k otherwise 5.1 inn 6h 5r 4er 2bb 2k @ LAD and @ texas when they were still hitting and humid 2.2 inn 5h 6r 6er 7bb 2k ...obviously not very good..
Now also I noticed that Floyd has done well vs the AL Central and had only 1 or 2 hiccups vs them . So I looked at his stats AL central vs the rest and I could be adding wrong did it quick
77.1 inn 66h 35r 27er 9hrs 24bb 59K Central
75.0 inn 66h 47r37er 14Hrs 37bb 51K vs rest
Dude gets crazy support at home. All season only 3x less then 6 runs when he started ...a 5 spot and 1 run twice ...7 7 7 1 9 12 5 13 9 6 1 10 6 15(108 in 14 starts=7 per start). Funny part is the 1 run starts where very good vs LAA and KC .
Away different story --
5 5 1 3 2 6 0 2 6 8 4 (42 runs in 11 starts or just shy of 4 runs per)
So lets take out the road starts vs the AL Central(these are NOT bolded) -
In Bold-
5 - L6-5 @Balt but picthed very well 6inn 2h 2r 0er 2bb 4k
Of interest it was in April when he was his sharpest 1st 2 months of the year and Balt was not hitting anywhere near like it has past few months even with the recent downturn (not a slump just slowin down abit)
3- L6-3 @ Seattle - Not suprising he struggled as he was off his NEAR No-no at home vs DET . 3.2 inn 9h 5 r 5er
2- Won 2-0 @ SFG - Well it was May and while SFG hasnt played well all year at home it was probably around this time where it was at its worst especially on offense ...
0- Lost 5-0 @ LAD - LAD was slumping offensively and they eventually got to FLoyd belive in the 6th ...5.1 inn 6h 5r 4er
2- Lost 7-2 @ Texas was just awful couldnt throw strikes with 7 bbs in 2.2 inn with 5h 6r 6er
4- Lost @ Oak 6-4. This was the most recent and lets face how long has it been since OAK hit ? the have consistently maxed out at 3 runs for awhile now. FLoyd was lifted in the 6th inn so 5.2 inn 6 h 2r 1 er 2bb 4K ...sort of what I would call avg seeing who the opponent was...
Thats 6 starts out of division and he is 1-5 in those and checked he is 4-1 vs the Central away losing 3-1 @ Minny...also 6 starts and 16 runs of support and just 11 in the past 5 and 9 of the 16 in 2 starts...So here he gets 2.75 runs of support......
WSox away vs LHSP - .252 avg all season
4 13 2 4 5 6 11 2 0 3 1 4 0 2 3 2 8 3 - since April 16th
Thats 9-9 SU and only 5x scoring more then 4 runs
-8 vs Washburn @ Seattle - self explatanory as WASh is better away then home and is medicore at best
-11 vs Harrison @ Texas- obviously self explatanory
-6 vs Nate Robertson the 2nd time they saw him after losing the 1st with 4 runs sscored
-5 vs Perkins @ Minny - nice job as the Perkins around a bit think 4 runs in 6inn
-13 vs Gio Gonazlez who has struggled his past 2 after looking solid early and is a ROOKIE
I guess its a matter of opinion if they improved as the season wore on. To me they really didnt and if they did it was slight especially for such a RH lineup. At home they were like 16-4 last I checked vs a LHSP. Two of the 5 higher scoring games were rookies , 1 vs Washburn a junk LHP , 1 vs Robertson see Washburn comment and 1 vs a solid but nothing special LH inPerkins .
Is Burres far off from these guys ? They edged Chris Waters 4-3 and had lost @ Stults 2-0 , slide by Kerhsaw 2-0 who is clearly a tough young SP at home ...
Floyd has opposed LHP Braden vs OAK , Livan vs Minny , Robertson vs DET , Mendoza vs texas , Stults vs LAD , Westbrook vs Cle , Sanchez vs SFG , Batista vs SEA, Boonser vs Minny and Guthrie vs BAlt...also DTrain in the 1st week which I didnt include as 1st week of the season is still almost Spring Training and WSox did beat 2o f 3 LHP ...they hit CC(who was terrible in April ) , Robertson and DTrain
I forgot how long this writueps took !!! Thats just 1 game !! All this is what goes through myhead as I am looking at the stats .....
Balt has lost 4-3 , won the suspended game 4-3 , lost to NYY 8-7 and 7-5 ...have to think if Balt doesnt win the 1+1.5 RL doesnt come to into play..so either ML or for value sakes -1.5 RL with BALT....
Of note as well see the recent WSox games especially vs TB they couldnt hold leads and barely won a game on SUND they could not lose and really the same yesterday as with a 3-3 game they are in position to steal an easy win and dont , then in a must win again in the real game they edge Balt 4-3 ..
Just not hitting well as all weekend they stranded runners vs TB and didnt do much yesterday ...Joe Crede has returned for WSox ..displacing Juan Uribe I assume.
Play: Orioles ML +140 {3units}
(Gonna use the 1 to 3 unit scale for plays in the foreseable future)Reason I am making it a strong play is what I believe to be an overvalued team and SP going not so much the clarity in how Burres will pitch or Balt will play ...just situational to me all lines up for Balt and think they have about a 60% chance of winning this game which the line says WSox have a 60% chance of winning....nice discrepancy in my eyes....Also Danks on deck vs Liz is a good spot for CHI IMO. Danks is very consistent and a good LHP can give Balt problems as I have seen Pettitte do it a few times and Liz has command issues and WSox are very much like NYY used to be patient and working pitches to high pitch counts ...Also Balt starts a trip after tmrw @ TB and @ Boston which they dont want to start off a home sweeps do they ? But th fake 4-3 win maybe changes that , who knows? Think the total is a tad high would see 10.5 -110 as correct based on everything so at 11 runs lean UNDER but who wants to buck the Orioles trend of consecutive UNDERS (though by closing lines it did occur recently at home ) ...
Trends -
-WSox away with 11 or 11.5 totals only 1-0 UND and 3-0 UND in past 3 seasons but 52-35 UND since 1997 but thats tough to make relevant .
-After week 1 the Sox went Under 8 off 11 away vs LHSP including 5-1 when it was L v L and since have gone 5-2 OVER vs LH but 2-1 UNDER when its L v L ...
So in those 18 games 10-8 UNDER but 7-2 UNDER when its LH vs LH which its not here with FLoyd(actually 21 games include the 3 in week 1 11-10 UND all year and 11-10 SU)
-Now Balt is 8-10 after 3 or more consecutive losses and 9-7-1 Over but also 43-23 OVER L3 years which can be attributed to shit pitching I assume..which is why they were losing and on streaks to begin with
-balt 4-6 as a hone pup and 7-2-1 UNDER
-they are 1-2 at home with 11 or 11.5 totals but 3-0 over (yesterday closed at 12)
Thats about enough of Balt vs Chicago .....
CLE @ Det thoughts:
Well Cle is Playing well but still think they are beating teams who are playing medicore even though I felt DET played 2 solid road series but then again TEX and KC were 2 ofthe medicore teams CLE swept ...
Lambert gets his ML debut -
<TABLE class=dataTableClass id=table_2 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR class="dataRow odd"><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 120px" align=left>Home Games</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>9</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>2</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 33px" align=middle>2.44</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>14</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>14</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>1</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>85.0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>68</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>26</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>23</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>28</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>73</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 36px" align=middle>0.96</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_3 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>.221</TD></TR><TR class="dataRow even"><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 120px" align=left>Away Games</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>3</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>6</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 33px" align=middle>4.90</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>12</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>12</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>2</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>1</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>64.1</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>75</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>43</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>35</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>7</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>20</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>51</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 36px" align=middle>0.77</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_4 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>.292</TD></TR><TR class="dataRow odd"><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 120px" align=left>Day Games</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>1</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>3</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 33px" align=middle>4.42</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>7</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>7</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>1</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>36.2</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>41</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>20</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>18</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>4</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>15</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>32</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 36px" align=middle>0.73</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_5 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>.287</TD></TR><TR class="dataRow even"><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 120px" align=left>Night Games</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>11</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>5</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 33px" align=middle>3.20</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>19</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>19</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>2</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>1</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>0</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>112.2</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>102</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>49</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>40</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>3</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>33</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 20px" align=middle>92</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 36px" align=middle>0.92</TD><TD class=dataCell id=cell_6 style="WIDTH: 24px" align=middle>.242</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I guess the good news is he is making a night start at home and not a day start on the road.
As I said yesterday DET goes from -220 or -230 to +150 at home in 1 game ...Its not like CLE smoke them as they won another game they could have easily lost had the home team hitwith MOB late in the game ...Game 2 always better for the travel factor to kick in ...
Basically Cle and DET have the same record BUT CLE is 27-38 away and after winning a few straight 21-30 vs its division . Det is 33-29 at home and 23-32 in division . Really hard for me to believe that CLE would be higher then -240 if that high had they been home ...which is sort of what -165/-170 makes me think cause remember CLE is a weak road team ...I would expect more like -140 tops here for CLE ....the Tribe has won 3 straight 1 run games and the other by 2 runs so this 4 game streak is based on being +5 runs in 4 wins .....tight margin IMO
Det though has in the past 2 weeks lost to Purcey ,Waters , Olson and Zach Jackson at home ..all young LHSP ......they did beat G.Smith and Meyer 2 young LH but also lost to Braden ...thats 2-5 last 7 vs LHSP all medicore at best ...hey lost 7-6 to Danks more thanks to Verlander though , they lost 3-2 to Perkins ...which makes 2-7 L9 at home vs LHSP ...Previous to this they beat
Sowers 9-2 , Francis 7-6 , Kershaw 5-4 , Buerhle 2-1 , lst to Lee 8-2 but that was On Dtrain getting smoked in 2 innings , beat Sowers 5-2 and Laffey 8-4 , lost t Perkins 6-1 and beat Washburn 8-4 , beat Igawa 6-5 and lost to Buerhle 13-2
so 8-3 but sort of unimpressive as they beat a bunch of weak SPs and half were by 1 run ...
Anyway now they are just 10-10 at home vs LHSP ...Two key bats Thames and Guillen questionable and Thames is there LH masher IMO...
Lee struggles vs DET though going 0-6 at home and 2-2 away with 2 1 run losses but seems to pitch at DET then at home when he faces them . Last start he was spotted a big lead and eventually gave it back and the 1st start he was again spotted a big lead but lasted just 5 innings 6h 2 r ...despite being up 8-0..so 10inn 16h 8r in 2 starts 2bb 10k 2hrs allowed
Interested in Det +1.5 RL with Lees struggles IF Thames and Guillen sit not sure would an UND interest me (dont think so) .....Even though those are the 2 weakest statistically vs LEE who DET has great indivual splits vs 60/195 142bs 1 triple 10Hrs 32 rbi 17bbs 38Ks....Pretty amazing that only Det , Texas and reds have better then 3 ERA s vs him while Det and texas faced him twice reds was just 1 start...He is 18-2 but also 1-4 in no decisions so 19-6 all year or 76%...11-3 away(about 78%) with two 1 run losses and the 2 run loss @ Cincy ..away he has 8 starts where he allowed 2 or less , 1 where allowed 3 runs , plus 3 more where he allowed 4 leaving just 2 teams to get more then 5 runs away when he picthed texas & Cincy ......
Boston @ Yanks :
Playing NYY here . They have finally done something of revelance sweeping BALT when throwing Rasner and Pavano in the series...Boston was okay IMO @ Tor they got the 1st game vs Marcum who was sent down afterwards , they lost 11- to Litsch as Lester finally got hit and two SP in DiceK and Burnett saw Boston outlast Tor...
Pettitte has strung 3 consecutive good starts together and IMO getting better each time although Tor vs LHP isnt a great test. he gets an extra day here....
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3.22</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>36.1</TD><TD align=right>35</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>40</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.252</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
He continues to excel vs LHBs holding them to 196 . He was solid the 2nd meeting Boston and the 1st one while he wasnt sharp he also was hurt by shaky defense early and some nicely placed Bos hits. He himslef said this is a HUGE series for them as they dont need to sweep but must take 2 of 3 ....Also his most recent starts on 6 or 7 days were very good ...@ Shea late June , vs Oak after the break and next after that @ Fenway ......
Wake hs struggled some vs NYY since the Boone Hr in 2003 I think losing 4 of 5 starts here . yanks MUST be patient with him and iof anything our lineup has greatly improved since Pettitte beat Wake @ Fenway while Boston has lost Lowell and traded Manny and assume Drew is out as well while adding Bay who did hit Pettitte well in the NL and Lowrie getting more time at SS....
Jose Molina should catch which seems to be a plus for the YANKS SPs....Wake is also coming off the DL with a shoulder strain now I tend to overlook pitchers with not arm injuries off the DL but clearly his is an arm issue ....so a question mark IMO and Boston middle relief has been an issue at times...
Price seems about right to me ...Wake was -120 @ Boston with the changed lineup and such think best case it would now be -110 /-110 PK so could see -165 even -170 as fair priced....
Both teams SUCK in series OPENERS after wins but Bost is terrible at 7-18 or 28% while NYY is 11-17 which is about 40%....
Before Balt the Yanks had LOST all 7 SERIES OPENERS Since the Boston series!! though 3 of them were basically lost in the last inning ..walkoff @ TExas , 2-1 @ Tor and 4-3 vs KC the Mo blown game that was tied ! So they have played well enough to be 4-4 in those games...
8 of 11 recent Yanks home series UNDERS have gone UNDER...Boston is 4-0-2 OVER on this trip....
Pettitte is 13-4 UND @ Night and 9-4 UNDER at home . His run support at home is 5runs exactly but also had 2 starts vs SEA and KC where he recieved DD runs ..Wake is 3.28 ERA at Nigh allowing 3.78 run in his starts but he also only receives 4 runs of support on the road ...despite dropping 4 of 5 @ NYY he has pitched fairly well inthose games its at Fenway where they hit him hard in 4 of the 5 recent starts....
Both days off to give the pens a blwo maybe 1st game of the series played a bit tight with big implications and even last ever visit to the STADIUM (a distraction??)
Wake though a question mark (same injury as last year)with ONLY 2 bad starts all season on the road ...7.2 in 15h 15 14er 4hrs 6bb 6ks .....somehow wake has led boston to just 4 wins in 13 starts away (4-9 ).......the other 11 Wake road starts in 2008 read: 74.1 Inn 54 H 25R 22 ER 7Hr 22BB 48Ks - damn solid !
PLAYS: Yankees ML -160{3units} and under 9.5 -120 {in for 1.5units but might make 2 units)
Tor @ TB thoughts ;
Tough game since I preached how attractive TB is at home near even MONEY when they have simply WON 43 of 54 there !! Especially since TB gave WSox all they could handle this weekend but so did Tor to Boston and TB could have lost al 3 had WS extnded there leads rather then allow TB to hang around...
Big thing is Shields has but 1 loss at home but Halladay is 14-4 since April ended when he starts vs THE AL losing twice to CLE AND TB but has lost to TB 3 times this year all in the same manner a close game which Tor couldnt break open that TB finally did with abig inning after the 5th ..the two key contributors for TB are OUT though Crawford and Longoria ...Carl is 5-11 while Longoria has 1Hr 8 RBI in 11 abs and they had 4 of the 7 XBH off him including 2 triples !!
Halladay has a road ERA of 2.53 and allowed 2.79 runs when he starts away. WOW! Shields is 8-1 2.21 at home (13-1 when he starts) allowing a 2.57 ERA !! WOW!! Neither SP allows many SBs -4/6 vs Halladay and 1/5 vs Shields..no freebies...
Halladay is 0-3 vs TB and believe just twice in his career has been 0-4 vs a team possibly last year vs Boston...huge competitor great incentive IMO and nice situationally. Though he is nails when he is on EXTENDED rest which he is not here but actually threw less then 100 pitches last outing which is rare.
Shields has won his last 3 but barely at home.. LAA he won 4-2 and think TB rallied late 8in 9h 2r so he escaped some jams , then DET 6-5 he went 6.1 inn 9h 2runs and Oka 4-3 8.1 inn 6h 3 r but it was closer because think OAK lead 2-0 with 2 out b5th when TB woke up hit a 2run HR to tie and a solo shit to lead 3-2 which seemed to deflate the slumping A's team after that ....
So he is ripe IMO for a loss . He did well recently @ Tor but the jays bats were also ice cold and have improved lately with 3 DD efforts in the past 10 games .
Lean the UNDER as well not sure I add as I think Shields could get hit here ...
Play: Jays ML +100 {2units might take it 3 units) , Jays 1st score of game Prop {2units} ...maybe Tor 1st 5 inn ML as well .....
NL thoughts -
Cubs @ Pirates :
Think this price is crazy !
Cubs are a 500 road team this is NOT WRIGLEY field ! Snell ha shown improvement lately and said his velocity is coming back . Chi has struggled vs RHP on the road all season. They had a nice payback spot vs Karstens yesterday who had not been hit hard yet in his 4 starts for Pitt so he was ripe IMO. That game went off 180-190 and this is 40-50 cents higher facing a much better SP ? ambrano is very good but he doesnt seem to be lights out vs weak teams like Harden is . The Cubs pen in a close game ??
Zambrano lost 6-2 @ Pitt last year @ Pitt with Johnson behind the plate calling balls and strikes ...Zambrano has won 4 of 5 vs Pitt but had lost 5 straight before that. He was okay his lastouting vs Snell against them and good @ Pitt but struggled at home in the 1st 08 start...His last starts have been good at Pitt and he is just 2-2...Snell has ben increasinly better l3 starts and ben @ Philly and @ STL in 2 of them shutting down a HOT Cards lineup last outing.....
really only concerned by the week inbewteen starts for Snell (last Tues vs STL) but Zambrano who has healthw whispers also going on normal rest something he hasnt done past few outings either ...Leaned UNDER but dont like the move on the total .....Snells extended rest stats are bad but think more because of the fact he was mostly on the road as last year his ERA was 2.92 on extended rest but his BAA did climb about 15 pts ...
Plays: Mixed and matched bewteen +1.5 +125 and +200 for {3units} with more on the RL
LAD @ WASH thoughts :
So LAD was shutout on 13 hits ? Lowe has road issues but was sharp vs WASH @ LAD.....an 8 total with 2 unimpressive pens and questionable SP...?
Lowe ROAD ERA 5.88 BAA 330
Only 4 quality road starts imo of 12 at 1st glimpse ....
better on normal rest mucnh better but again most guys on normal rest at home and extended away the majority of starts...
Balester has been solid for a rookie on a bad team , teams have 300 off him at home and he is 0-4 in 5 starts on extra rest with a bAA above 300 as well compared to 250 in 3 normal rest starts..
Plays : 1unit each 1st 5 over and game over ...
Leaning : Over @ Philly ..Moyer on a roll with 13 straight allowing 3 or less but both pens scare me if I need an out ...Philly hitting better and Mets see Moyer for the 5th time in 2008 !Normal rest his BAA is 45 pts higher but his nIGHT ERA hovers around 3.00 but at home its almost 1.5 higher ..pedro pitching well late but tougher task here and not at home either ...away starts on a nice over run...
Thats what I have for 7PM probably more to add for me . Not sure I get back before starts so GL all !!!
Also Toby Hall catching for CHI always makes me think UNDER .....
Didnt get to anything past 7 PM and probably will pass on FLA @ ATL. Like Olsen as he is due for a win losing like 6 or 7 straight starts but not sure I want to go there with Jurrjens who wasnt as bad as the line looked @ Shea.....maybe UNDER ? 1st 5 ...who knows !
GL all !!:cheers:Hopefully this helps me get organized at least for 1/2 the card and proves helpful to you in some manner .....
GL all!
