Tuesday MLB Discussion

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD>More</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>951</TD><TD>Colorado Rockies
U. Jimenez
</TD><TD>+1.5 -113</TD><TD>+173</TD><TD>OVER 10 +103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>952</TD><TD>Philadelphia Phillies
K. Kendrick
</TD><TD>-1.5 +103</TD><TD>-181</TD><TD>UNDER 10 -113</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>953</TD><TD>Los Angeles Dodgers
H. Kuroda
</TD><TD></TD><TD>-103</TD><TD></TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>954</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs
S Gallagher
</TD><TD></TD><TD>-105</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>955</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Pirates
I. Snell
</TD><TD>+1.5 -165</TD><TD>+130</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +110</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>956</TD><TD>Cincinnati Reds
J. Cueto
</TD><TD>-1.5 +155</TD><TD>-138</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -120</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>957</TD><TD>Florida Marlins
A. Miller
</TD><TD>+1.5 -122</TD><TD>+183</TD><TD>OVER 8 -112</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>958</TD><TD>New York Mets
Jo. Santana
</TD><TD>-1.5 +112</TD><TD>-196</TD><TD>UNDER 8 +102</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>959</TD><TD>Atlanta Braves
T. Hudson
</TD><TD>-1.5 +123</TD><TD>-130</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -121</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>960</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
D. Bush
</TD><TD>+1.5 -133</TD><TD>+122</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 +111</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>961</TD><TD>Houston Astros
S. Chacon
</TD><TD>+1.5 -164</TD><TD>+123</TD><TD>OVER 9 -101</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:15 PM</TD><TD>962</TD><TD>St Louis Cardinals
B. Looper
</TD><TD>-1.5 +154</TD><TD>-131</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -109</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>963</TD><TD>San Francisco Giants
T Lincecum
</TD><TD>+1.5 -156</TD><TD>+142</TD><TD>OVER 8 -109</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>06:40 PM</TD><TD>964</TD><TD>Arizona D-Backs
D. Haren
</TD><TD>-1.5 +146</TD><TD>-150</TD><TD>UNDER 8 -101</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>965</TD><TD>Washington Nationals
S. Hill
</TD><TD>+1.5 -170</TD><TD>+127</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 -106</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>966</TD><TD>San Diego Padres
R. Wolf
</TD><TD>-1.5 +160</TD><TD>-135</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 -104</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>967</TD><TD>New York Yankees
I. Kennedy
</TD><TD>-1.5 +133</TD><TD>-116</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +112</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>968</TD><TD>Baltimore Orioles
B. Burres
</TD><TD>+1.5 -143</TD><TD>+108</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -122</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>969</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
M. Buehrle
</TD><TD>+1.5 -164</TD><TD>+132</TD><TD>OVER 8 -111</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>970</TD><TD>Cleveland Indians
A. Laffey
</TD><TD>-1.5 +154</TD><TD>-140</TD><TD>UNDER 8 +101</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>971</TD><TD>Texas Rangers
V. Padilla
</TD><TD>+1.5 -150</TD><TD>+140</TD><TD>OVER 9 -115</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>972</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Rays
A. Sonnanstine
</TD><TD>-1.5 +140</TD><TD>-148</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>973</TD><TD>Minnesota Twins
N. Blackburn
</TD><TD>+1.5 -175</TD><TD>+114</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +106</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:10 PM</TD><TD>974</TD><TD>Kansas City Royals
B. Bannister
</TD><TD>-1.5 +165</TD><TD>-122</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -116</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>975</TD><TD>Toronto Blue Jays
A. Burnett
</TD><TD>+1.5 -220</TD><TD>-108</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 +106</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>976</TD><TD>Oakland Athletics
G. Smith
</TD><TD>-1.5 +200</TD><TD>+100</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 -116</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>977</TD><TD>Detroit Tigers
J. Bonderman
</TD><TD>+1.5 -170</TD><TD>+114</TD><TD>OVER 9 +101</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>978</TD><TD>LAA Angels
E. Santana
</TD><TD>-1.5 +160</TD><TD>-122</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -111</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/27</TD><TD>979</TD><TD>Boston Red Sox
D. Matsuzaka
</TD><TD>-1.5 -105</TD><TD>-171</TD><TD>OVER 9 +101</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:10 PM</TD><TD>980</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
M. Batista
</TD><TD>+1.5 -105</TD><TD>+163</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -111</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Chi. White Sox at Cleveland
Umpire: Hoye, James
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>M Buehrle
A Laffey
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Yankees at Baltimore
Umpire: Eddings, Doug
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>I Kennedy
B Burres
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Texas at Tampa Bay
Umpire: Welke, Tim
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>V Padilla
A Sonnanstine
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Minnesota at Kansas City
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>N Blackburn
B Bannister
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Detroit at LA Angels
Umpire: Tschida, Tim
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Bonderman
E Santana
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Toronto at Oakland
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>A J Burnett
G Smith
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Boston at Seattle
Umpire: Cooper, Eric
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>D Matsuzaka
M Batista
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>LA Dodgers at Chi. Cubs
Umpire: Davidson, Bob
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>H Kuroda
S Gallagher
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Colorado at Philadelphia
Umpire: Estabrook, Mike
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>U Jimenez
K Kendrick
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>I Snell
J Cueto
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Florida at NY Mets
Umpire: Rapuano, Ed
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>A Miller
J Santana
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Atlanta at Milwaukee
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>T Hudson
D Bush
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:15 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Houston at St. Louis
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>S Chacon
B Looper
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>9:40 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>San Francisco at Arizona
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>T Lincecum
D Haren
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Washington at San Diego
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>S Hill
R Wolf
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Last edited:
-lotta value on the Marlins today with the Mets recent struggles

-I'm on the TEX-TB Under 9 with Tim Welke at 64% strikes at the plate

-I think MIN wins easily today with Blackburn on the bump against the struggling Royals
 
The team total for the Rangers is 4 over minus 20 cents.
Welke the ump last 10 the road team vs 4 is 5-3-2
Rangers last 9 vs a right hander on the road vs 4 total were 7-0-2. 9 road games were shown looking at last 20 vs rightie is the reason for the funny number of games.
Sonnanstine starting at home has gone over for opposition 9 times, 4 under and 2 push. Rangers over team total looks reasonable.
 
Giving serious thought to a play on Minn su and minus 1.5. They face Zack and Luke next who I see as the Royals best home pitchers. Minn is very good of a day off and have lost many times to Banister. I doubt that he has ever been in this form before. Will not bet till I see the umpire.
 
Why are the jays favored over the A's? Burnett has not completely come to form yet and the entire A's pitching staff is a beast. Big hurt coming along and the teams hitting well.. I don't get it, and am loving the A's so far..
 
cogenman said:
Ian Kennedy and his 7.27 era favored on the road? Too much Yankee love.
Click to expand...


ERA very misleading stat to use IMO...as misleading and not realizing how effective or ineffective a teams bullpen is......

Besides the fact Kennedy is young and has but a few samples to use remember this for the long haul ....say Kennedy avgs 5 innings pitched ..what constitutes a 7 ERA? Well its 4 runs in 5 innings which is bad but clearly not insurmountable especially if you have the Jobe experiment where he goes three innings....so alot has to be looked at ...really what I would say is worst case Balt could get 5 runs today ...say 4 off Kennedy and 1 off the pen ...but if he pitches alittle better like he has since the promotion and the pen shuts them down it could maybe a 3 run scenario...so thats why ERA is misleading.....nore important is avg inn pitched and avg runs allowed with the pen factored in.....:shake:
 
Hudson seems to be laying a very low price to a gas can like Dave Bush. Think I will be on the Braves although Brewers seem to be a whole different team when they are at home
 
And totally off topic. They are showing classic Brewer games in Wisconsin today and just noticed that Doug Eddings was behind the dish for Ben Sheets 18K game. LOL. Wonder how many other huge K games E has been a part of
 
With Joba set for tomorrow very difficult to make a case for pen superiority for the Yankees who seem to have 1 quality reliever available beside Rivera. So play would be for Baltimore. WS getting 44 cents is clearly insane. They have a better road record than Cleveland has playing at home. They are 8-2 last 10 to Cleveland 1-9. They had a quality win yesterday and they dearly love to beat Cleveland. Spread should probably be 10-15 cents at most if that much so a play on them is certainly forced. Major trend pointing to Hudson. This pleases me not as I normally play Bush as a home dog. Not sure what to do. Baseball-reference.com has that info Big Herm.
 
Have found another major angle that points to the Brewers. Should be a great game to Watch. Decided at 15 cents had to try under in Baltimore and also bet under 9 in Cardinal game. Think that game may go up and pretty much feel an under play is forced there for multiple reasons.
 
Lookin hard at that under in Balti. We got a the lefty in Burres going against the gas can in Kennedy. As SN metioned, kennedy's most likely scenario is to give up 3-5 ERs. This leaves the capable NYY pen the task to hold balti down to 1-2 ERs, which seems very feasible. We know the yank's tendency to not hit lefties, as washburn nearly pitched a gem against them before turning a disaster with the Ms pen on sunday. With the factors of having Eddings at HP and burres being a lefty, i see somewhere in the range of a 5-3 or 5-4 type of game with the runs coming early. I'm curious to hear SN's thoughts on this but i think the yanks are still shit on the road against lefties, and this will be further perpetuated today.
 
tuck321 said:
WS getting 44 cents is clearly insane. They have a better road record than Cleveland has playing at home. They are 8-2 last 10 to Cleveland 1-9. They had a quality win yesterday and they dearly love to beat Cleveland. Spread should probably be 10-15 cents at most if that much so a play on them is certainly forced.
Click to expand...

Laffey with the revenge angle. A historically successful angle, hence the inflated line.
 
tuck321 said:
Have found another major angle that points to the Brewers. Should be a great game to Watch. Decided at 15 cents had to try under in Baltimore and also bet under 9 in Cardinal game. Think that game may go up and pretty much feel an under play is forced there for multiple reasons.
Click to expand...


want to share the angle?
 
Cash: You have to be patient, brother. The lineups come out later in those two NL games. When they do, the umpires will come out with them. That's why we call it 'stalking the umps' - you have to stalk them and wait for them to come out of the bushes...
 
Big Herm said:
Where can I find pitchers' performance on days rest?
Click to expand...

I use CBS sportsline...shows less then 5 days , 5 days and grater then 5 days. Which means I need to look at game logs and sort of eyeball when there is the greater then 5 days spots...six days and seven days are a little different IMO think ESPN also has good stats...
 
Doubt they mean much to most. Hudson simply wins at a 7-1 rate after pitching a game with no walks and Brewers 16-4 home Tuesdays with Bush 4-0 in that spot.
 
tuck321 said:
Doubt they mean much to most. Hudson simply wins at a 7-1 rate after pitching a game with no walks and Brewers 16-4 home Tuesdays with Bush 4-0 in that spot.
Click to expand...


Thank you. Was driving me crazy. Like when i was 12 and the girl two doors down told me she had a secret but couldn't tell me what it was.

gl today tuck.
 
Trueblue said:
Lookin hard at that under in Balti. We got a the lefty in Burres going against the gas can in Kennedy. As SN metioned, kennedy's most likely scenario is to give up 3-5 ERs. This leaves the capable NYY pen the task to hold balti down to 1-2 ERs, which seems very feasible. We know the yank's tendency to not hit lefties, as washburn nearly pitched a gem against them before turning a disaster with the Ms pen on sunday. With the factors of having Eddings at HP and burres being a lefty, i see somewhere in the range of a 5-3 or 5-4 type of game with the runs coming early. I'm curious to hear SN's thoughts on this but i think the yanks are still shit on the road against lefties, and this will be further perpetuated today.
Click to expand...

Yanks are shit on the road vs LHP for sure . Was talking with TRU yesterday about this .

Last year 5-14 away vs LHSP but won the last 3 in the final week of the season . They are now 3-5 I believe away vs LHSP this year but check that . Seems to be when they lose its an under when they win its an over but that sort of blurred because of the absences in this years lineup .

Today I am not sure about Balt . Yesterday I thought perfect spot to take Balt . Coming home after a bad trip and Yanks stealing one they didnt deserve on Sunday . This is already the third time they will see Burres this year . First game he wasnt very sharp but escaped IMO like 9 baserunners in 5.2 but he was very good at the Stadium last week . I think being LH Burres will be tougher at the Stadium then he is at Camden when facing NYY. Just my opinion though....Game is a tad over priced because this is also Kennedys 3 rd start vsBalt this year. Which I do think he is much more comfortable since his demotion and promotion. The problem with I have clearly feeling is this is overpriced is two unknowns . Is Kennedy getting his act together and I suspect he is but not sure and the same token is NYY getting there act together ? With how both teams have played and all looking at the SP would expect that Balt would be -110 but its because of the Yanks poor play which as I said might be disappearing. Kennedy should then be able to go longer in games and I would expect 6 to which if the other arms have to pitch I have no problem with Edwar Ramirez . Not much of problem with Hawkins , Ohlendorf or Veras even Farnsworth. They seem to struggle more in games they are trailing then winning it can be a crapshoot with Yankee relievers as there consistency levels have been short. You look at the Yanks since AROD returned the 1st game was the error disater in the 1st then they won 5 straight and lost a game that was close until late .

Just think we hit Burres today so not sure what I think and probably just passing .




 
vegaskyle said:
Days rest stats are far and away the most overrated stats in baseball capping.
Click to expand...

Depends on how you use them. I simply want to know does a pitcher have different performances when he gets extra rest. Clearly the situation has to be factored be in. In my opinion I totally disagree with you here. Most SP develop patterns of pitching better on normal rest or extended rest and its good to be aware of IMO. I can at least say from personal experience when I pitched how many days rest had alot to do with my velocity , command and general stamina. Some guys need an extra break and in the ERA of pitch counts we have made soft pitchers as well....

I think its one of the biggest things to know about a SP....we all have our opinions...:shake:
 
Sort of stuck in this Colorado game. Atkins is playing today for Colorado. Phillies have scored what ? 35 runs last 2 days. It is second game of a 3 or longer home stand where the Phillies are 1=7. I made a Very small bet on Colorado first 5 mostly plus .5.
 
as a resident of socal, i like the LAA under. The weather has cooled down a lot here and there were a couple of flyballs this weekend at the Big A that should have been homers. Just yesterday, Izturis hit one hard, and it couldnt clear the fence for the love of god. I am fairly certain that today is the same scenario. Bonderman is coming along and Santana has been solid. The tigers bats are sleeping and angels are squeaking out wins with less then 7 hits. They beat the whitesox on 4 hits just the other day... Anyways, weather is colder, bats arent producing and you got two decent pitchers. Ump info is tba, but as long as they arent super bias, i see no reason to worry.
 
Well my Master plan is for the Yankees never to score again and a 5-4 win by Baltimore. Sometimes I get unlucky though and that does not happen on a 9.5 total with 8 runs in the first 2 innings.
 
Detroit has been shutout in 3 of their last 6 road games (last 2 straight), and has scored more than 4 runs once in their last 9 roadies.

Angels have scored more than 4 runs once in their last 13 games overall.

Detroit is 4-0 to Under in Bonderman road starts (totals 9, 5, 8 & 7 runs).

LAA is 4-0 to Under in Santana home starts (totals 7, 5, 7 & 9 runs).

An Over ump is BHP, and the wind is 10mph out to center
 
Its freakin HUMID as hell here on the East Coast. Its crazy I can see it shooting a basketball. The ball just glides through the air ..imagine what a baseball must do...
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Detroit has been shutout in 3 of their last 6 road games (last 2 straight), and has scored more than 4 runs once in their last 9 roadies.

Angels have scored more than 4 runs once in their last 13 games overall.

Detroit is 4-0 to Under in Bonderman road starts (totals 9, 5, 8 & 7 runs).

LAA is 4-0 to Under in Santana home starts (totals 7, 5, 7 & 9 runs).

An Over ump is BHP, and the wind is 10mph out to center
Click to expand...

Well since I believe what True Blue says about the recent weather in SoCal , if the wind is out tonight I think we may have to go over . Since the conditions have changed , both pens got stretched yesterday a bit and well Ervin Santana seems to be slumping a bit and when he was going good he was medicore @ Det from what I recall. Bonderman if he is good is like 6 inn 2 runs and his pen is a huge question mark...think we could see 4-4 at some point but only if the wind is out ....:shake:
 
tuck321 said:
Have found another major angle that points to the Brewers. Should be a great game to Watch. Decided at 15 cents had to try under in Baltimore and also bet under 9 in Cardinal game. Think that game may go up and pretty much feel an under play is forced there for multiple reasons.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the heads up with MILW. They cashed a 4 team parlay for me Cub s, Mets , Indians and the BREW CREW....Thanks :cheers:
 
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