Tuesday MLB (4/01/08)

reNew Orleans

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
Favs: 2-1 +.25 Units
Dogs: 4-0 +5.80 Units
Totals: 1-2 -1.35 Units
1st 5 Innings: 0-0 +/- 0 Units
1st 5 Innings Total: 1-1 -.10 Units
6th Inning+: 1-0 +1 Units
6th Inning+ Total: 0-0 +/-0 Units
RLs: 0-1 - 1.10 Units
Misc: 1-0 +1.30 Units
Overall: 10-5 +5.80 Units


I had a great day yesterday going 6-1 +6.6 units, needed to rebound from the Bravos on Sunday and back on track.



Didn't really get to cap anything, but going to throw out some leans just by a glance. I'll look at the card in a little more depth later. I'm not limiting my plays to just these leans though.

Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals OVER 9 -110
 Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres UNDER 7.5 -125
New York Mets @ Florida Marlins OVER 8.5 -125


BOL To Yall Tuesday :cheers:
 
Last edited:
thanks bar - looking to improve upon last year

thanks steed

thanks brar - no complaints here

yup yessir - looks like it should hit a few innings in

blue - nah... not really. I still don't have a great feel for the Oak team and they've both had to do quite a bit of traveling. I would lean under because of that. For Oak has some patient hitters and since Dice-K can be erratic I don't like that for an under, it can lead to quite a few walks IF they can make contact and drive in some runs. no idea about the umps yet. BOS can put up runs but that means getting hits vs Blanton and while a couple hitters do have some good #'s vs him, few of those hits have been XBH or HRs (only 1 HR allowed vs current BOS hitters-Big Papi). It'd be under or nothing for me.
 
Wasn't Daisuke rocked more his 2nd and 3rd time facing a team last yr? I figured that mixed with the patient hitters of OAK could equal an over. I like Blanton and think he is talented, but he could leave the game proud and still surrender 3 runs. Also, this is BOS 2nd look at him, so he may become more hittable.

I was contemplating this play, but likely won't make it; I just wanted to get your thoughts.

GL tonight
 
Blue_Chip said:
Wasn't Daisuke rocked more his 2nd and 3rd time facing a team last yr? I figured that mixed with the patient hitters of OAK could equal an over. I like Blanton and think he is talented, but he could leave the game proud and still surrender 3 runs. Also, this is BOS 2nd look at him, so he may become more hittable.

I was contemplating this play, but likely won't make it; I just wanted to get your thoughts.

GL tonight
Click to expand...

I actually did a bit of research on this last year and Dice K did seem to get hit harder after a team had seen him. Not sure what the effect will be this time around with the layoff, but his stats were padded by dominating a select few teams and first time around on most teams.
 
Blue_Chip said:
Wasn't Daisuke rocked more his 2nd and 3rd time facing a team last yr? I figured that mixed with the patient hitters of OAK could equal an over. I like Blanton and think he is talented, but he could leave the game proud and still surrender 3 runs. Also, this is BOS 2nd look at him, so he may become more hittable.

I was contemplating this play, but likely won't make it; I just wanted to get your thoughts.

GL tonight
Click to expand...

gotcha, that makes sense. Just not a game I'd like to get involved with but I do like Oak as a side if I did play that game, not a fan of favs typically and Dice-K has always been over-priced, think that might stop this year. Just a odd scenario coming back from Japan.
 
Locking in a couple:
All bets we'll be risking # units or winnings # units, depending on the odds.

New York Mets @ Florida Marlins OVER 9 -110 (Pedro v. Vanden Hurk) (2 Units)
So Vanden Hurk, he's either gives up hits/walks or gets a K it seems and the Mets ate him up last year. The bullpen is weak, the Mets can do this on their own. Florida has some bats, and they should knock in a few off pedro. Wish I got 8.5 but been away for a while and by the time I came back it jumped up to 9. Still both SP should be good to give up atleast 3/4 each.

Houston Astros +170 (Backe v. Young) (1 Unit)
I believe Chris Young is a very good pitcher, only problem is he starts out the season slow. He is dominant in the middle months, then fades again. Seems to be a routine he goes through. Backe, is he healthy this year? He seems pretty excited about this year and although he's been inconsistent he's got some talent and has started off 2 of the last 3 Aprils with a sub 3 ERA. Both pitchers have good #'s vs the opposing team, but in that case, I'll always take the dog. I do realize the Young pitches AMAZINGLY at home last year, but the year before it was the opposite. I'm pretty interested in this San Diego team because they could start the season off hot after last years end, out to prove themselves and all that and I may have to ride em if thats the case.
 
thanks hile - nothing better than betting dogs in baseball


Adding:

Oakland Athletics +115 (Blanton v. Dice-K) (1 Unit)
I have to thank Blue_Chip for bringing this game up. I looked into this in more depth and Dice-K... well he's always overpriced for the most part so anything will be value vs. him. But when you have a guy who's has pitched decently vs the Sox and pitched well at home last year at this price, I have to bite. These Oak hitters are patient and Dice-K can give up the walks, they got em last game, they just need to GET SOME HITS this time around.

New York Mets Team Total OVER 5 -135 (1 Unit)
Well the reasoning is simple enough. Vanden Hurk + Marlins pen = ??? Its hard to imagine the Mets not scoring 3 or 4 runs in 1 inning and then have the rest of the game to score 2/3.
 
Here is what I pulled on Dice K during the playoffs last year:

Focus on Dice K
-Dice K did shut down the Indians last time around, but that was almost 3 months ago. His ERA, Whip and BB/IP have soared since the All-Star break, while his K/9 has dropped a bit. The last two months he has been progressively worse, which could be attributed to the pitch count issue mentioned above.
-Interesting tidbit: if you take out the teams which Dice K only pitched once against, his ERA raises to a around 5 and his Whip just a tad to 1.35. If you go further and take out the first game against (all) opponents, his ERA raises to 5.40 and his Whip to 1.40. His K/IP drops from almost 1 to around .85.
 
Big Herm said:
Here is what I pulled on Dice K during the playoffs last year:

Focus on Dice K
-Dice K did shut down the Indians last time around, but that was almost 3 months ago. His ERA, Whip and BB/IP have soared since the All-Star break, while his K/9 has dropped a bit. The last two months he has been progressively worse, which could be attributed to the pitch count issue mentioned above.
-Interesting tidbit: if you take out the teams which Dice K only pitched once against, his ERA raises to a around 5 and his Whip just a tad to 1.35. If you go further and take out the first game against (all) opponents, his ERA raises to 5.40 and his Whip to 1.40. His K/IP drops from almost 1 to around .85.
Click to expand...


nice info bigHerm - I'll have to keep this in mind. :shake:


thanks dmoney - GL to you tonight as well bud
 
Awsome shit Renew. I was holding out for a better price on Blanton but totally agree on the side. Hopefully its 2-0 A's and we both cash
 
we lookin good so far green


The mets are incompetent, not scoring more runs against that awful pen.
still a couple games to go, just had to vent.
 
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