Tuesday Maction Discussion

[Gorgolon Lives]

Our final installment of Tuesday Macation brings us Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois.

WMU is pathetic with only 1 win this season. They give up 233 RUSHING yards per game. They give up 39 PPG on the road.

Northern Illinois is merely playing for style points tonight to enhance their BCS bowl hopes. The line currently sits at 35.5.

I'm looking at 2 plays: NIU 1H and NIU team total OVER. Those numbers have not been posted yet at my book.

Despite a pretty meaningless game, I think there is money to be made tonight considering the BCS implications for NIU.

Thoughts?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Some other favorable angles in support of NIU:

Senior night for NIU

Lynch wanting to pad stats for Heisman bid (I normally don't follow this logic, but we all saw what happened against Toldeo when Lynch ran for a TD instead of the team taking a knee at the end of game)

 

[RetroVK]

It's hard to figure out how it will be that close. NIU top ten rushing attack against a bottom 10 rushing defense. 1 team apparently in quit mode, one team still with a chip on the shoulder. I suppose you have NIU a bit banged up on defense and they are the 90th ranked defense so if wmich can score at all then you are looking at a hard number to cover.

undefeated with 90th ranked defense ... this is no longer football. ( This may become my new Mantra unless the Lakers make a run at the title this year ).

Anyway ... gonna be 20 degrees or so with chance of snow, with possibility of 15-18 mph winds late afternoon into evening.

 

[Frank Costanza]

I'm on NIU 1H. Looking at other crap teams that NIU has faced lately (UMass, E. Mich) they've gotten out fast and been up an average of 33 points at the half. Seniors trying to go out undefeated in their careers at home.

Not that they'll necessarily be needed, but would be good to know the status of the two NIU WRs.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

My book has some updated numbers now. The line moved to 36 and came back down to 35, so that seems to be the point of resistance. My book is offering 1H -21 (-115). I think 21 is doable.

 

[nbafan88]

TT should be around 47-47.5

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

TT should be around 47-47.5

Yea I thought 47. I see something like 35-7 at halftime. Then it will be up to the subs to get those final points. I assume Lynch will play at least into the 4th quarter to pad his stats.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I locked in NIU 1H -21 to avoid the possibility of a hook later in the day (.5 units)

 

[TahoeLegend]

I've enjoyed your MAC posts during the year. I like the MAC even though I don't bet it much, and have learned a lot from reading these threads this year.

I'm passing on this game. No doubt N Ill CAN cover if they are trying to, but I never give points with a team playing a meaningless game the week before they play the title game. No way to know how hard the coach is pushing them, how much time they spent getting ready for B Green this week, and how soon he will rest starters.

I'll be watching because I love to watch Lynch play, but I'll pass on betting

 

[Frank Costanza]

I don't know if it's meaningless, at all, as far as stats and the final score is concerned. With things wide open now, Lynch has a chance to get to NYC for the presentation ceremony. For a school like NIU, just having a player at that ceremony would be huge for the program. Plenty of reason for Lynch to pad his stats tonight, maybe not on the run as much to avoid injury, but in the air. Especially if his two WRs are back. As far as the team goes and related BCS rankings, wanting a 56-7 type game probably isn't lost on anyone.

 

[nbafan88]

fuck it

team total over 48.5

 

[captbunch18]

Total up to 64.5 now. My under 61 doesn't look so good

 

[Coverdatspred]

Something so pleasing to the eye to watch a football game in the elements.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Just about what you expect from a team in this situation--played under wraps, didn't take any chances, started pulling starters midway through the third, pulled the QB early in the fourth.