Tuesday game thoughts

[Jack]

Hi all,

This is my first thread actually trying to cap a game, so please kindly point it out if I'm way off on something.

Looking at NYY/TOR game tomorrow.

Petitte is starting for NYY, Toronto hits lefties pretty hard, .314 at home and .284 last 10. Interestingly though, Pettite has never faced Toronto or played at Rogers Centre as a SP. Not sure if this is a advantage for the pitchers or the bats.

Meanwhile Marcum has faced the yankees 5 times in 2006, twice at home and 3 times away, pitched 17.5 innings gave up exactly 3 runs each time for a total of 15 runs. Keep in mind Marcum has improved alot this seaon.

Pinny opened the game with NYY@-158, now at 153, O/U opened at 9.5 over-105, and now is at over-114 already.

My initial leans are Toronto and the over, with over looking like a really nice play. Toronto should be able to score at least 5,6 runs altogether, and I hope the yankees can contribute some at least.

Not sure if anyone read my entire rambling, but thoughts and comments are appreiciated.:shake:

 

[HUNT]

Hey bro, nice thoughts.

I agree that the Jays hit lefties well, but I think for some reason this is the type of game the yankees can score 10 or 11 runs, they need a win in the worst way and seem to play better with their backs against the wall. pettite is a smart pitcher...

tough game imo.

 

[Jack]

Huntdog, thanks for the comment.

I'm leaning more on the over now, game time temp around 65-70, humidity 45-50, pretty neutral.

Question about ump rotation, does 1B gets to be the home ump tomorrow? If so, Fairchild was at 1B today, he has 60.88% ball-strike ratio this year, also neutral.

Can't find the postgame clip anywhere, but I would say the yankees were kind already with their backs against the wall coming into today's game and they belew it. Though Pettite is a better pitcher.

 

[E.T.G.]

GL man, just got back 2night, will have sum more in depth thoughts 2morrow

 

[Santacapper]

Just an 'aside' but Petite has pitched in the Rogers Centre (SkyDome) as a SP, albeit some time ago and different lineups, but not much success vs them then. Im on the Jays tonight, just because the Yanks 'can' win doesnt mean they will, just look at losing 4 of 5 as a prime example...

marcum has good stuff, and has improved as you said. Its a nice day in Toronto and I think the Dome should be open.

UMPIRE ROTATION In general, the Umpiring rotation is as follows: HOME ---> THIRD ---> SECOND --->FIRST ---> HOME

GL Jack

 

[Satyr]

good luck Jack. :shake:

 

[Jack]

Thanks fellas:shake:

I tracked Pettite's record up to 2004/5 and didn't see him pitching in Rogers, must be before that.

 

[dmart420]

i agree with you on the over. i'll be on that also. good luck. by the way, this is the best forum out in cyberland imo. i haven't been here too long but i remember a lot of the guys from covers (which i'm banned from). The knowledge here is unparalleled and there is no high school bullshit. we all have a common goal........making money.

 

[Jack]

Oh, tell us your covers name:36_11_6:

 

[Jack]

Sucker Bets of the Day

Looking at line moves here, and Boston went from -173 openning to -201 now:bow:

There is no reason for the line to move almost 30 cents, I see big lineup change on either team, David Ortiz is still listed as questionable. But I mean, even if Ortiz plays tonight, he's not moving the line that much.

Also looking at Milwakee ml, almost everyone is on Smoltz & Co. today, yet Milwakee opened at -107 and is at -119 now.

One more note, alot of the O/Us today are getting bet down, 9 out of 15 games have moved 1/2 point down in total.

Again your thoughts and comments are appreiciated.

 

[Man on Fire]

Indians now +188 on MB, is it worth a unit.

 

[Jack]

I'm a newb so you are asking the wrong person. But there are other games on the board today that's more predictable in my opinion.

 

[Jack]

My leans for today

Toronto and Over
Seattle Over
San Diego
Baltimore

 

[Terpman92]

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Good luck today Jack!
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[Troutman]

Jack,
Be wary that Petite isnt your typical lefty. He doesnt have relly skewed numbers agaisnt Left or right handed batters, i say of all the Yanks pitchers Petite isnt one i like to bet against......As for the over, the yanks bats are cold and you have a shut doen pitcher in petite I think the under may be the correct play if Marcum has good numbers agaisnt the yanks......GL with whatever you chose, IMO smoltz is money in the bank tonight agaisnt the brewers especially with andrew starting to come around at the plate.

 

[Jack]

Thanks Troutman, I didn't know what you said, it looks under is getting bet down a bit now too.

 

[E.T.G.]

ya i am against you in that san diego game..

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL Today Jack, just take it slow and steady bro.

 

[Jack]

Thanks Orleans, appreiciate the advice:cheers:

Question: Anyone know where I can find available bullpen information? Or even better, would we know what the pitching orders will be for the bullpen before gametime?

 

[E.T.G.]

Thanks Orleans, appreiciate the advice:cheers:

Question: Anyone know where I can find available bullpen information? Or even better, would we know what the pitching orders will be for the bullpen before gametime?

You will never find out the pitching orders before gametime. They are decisions made on matchups. You won't know which bullpen pitcher is going to pitch, bottom line.

 

[Jack]

I see, what about who is avaliable and who isn't? Besides DL of course.

 

[reNew Orleans]

here you go

http://covers.usatoday.com/data/mlb/game/mlb_game.html

 

[Jack]

wow thanks Orleans!

Has anyone tracked how accurate USAToday is? It listed Guthrie as a Reliever in Baltimore Bullpen?

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Great thread guys.

 

[reNew Orleans]

wow thanks Orleans!

Has anyone tracked how accurate USAToday is? It listed Guthrie as a Reliever in Baltimore Bullpen?

Guthrie came out of the pen midway this season to start. But he is both a RP/SP

 

[Jack]

I see thanks Orleans.

According to pregamewire, Chipper Jones is OUT for tonight's game. Bond is not expected to START tonight.

 

[Jack]

Alright, gonna start a record here and see how I do. This is for tracking purpose only, I'm not wagering on these neccessarily.

Side 0-0-0
Total 0-0-0

Tuesday May 29, 2007

Toronto $10
Baltimore $30
Toronto Over $30
Texas Over $20
Seattle Over $20
Florida Under $20

 

[Jack]

Terrible day

Side 2-0-0
Total 0-4-0

I've always played more totals than sides, and baseball totals just aren't
working for me this last while.

I was dead wrong about the Toronto game, Florida hit really well or should I say Cubs suck really hard. Texas game is in the last inning as I'm typing this, not likely to hit the over, where did Oakland offense go? I am mostly upset about the Seattle/LAA game, or should I say I hate it when I'm dead wrong about something.

Oh well, better luck tomorrow.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

That Seattle game hinged completely on Johjima's 1st inning DP. Seattle would have been competitive & the total would have likely sailed Over if they'd got a hit (as could easily have been the case) instead of his DP out.

I wouldnt say you were dead wrong, more dead unlucky.

 

[Jack]

BetCrime thanks for the comment, Johjima can't hit shit vs LAA, 9AB, 0 hits.

By the way, you were one of the first few people I could remember on covers, nice to see you here, a much better board.