3-Pack Mixed August 22: 1 Total, 1 Prop, and 1 Parlay
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Who Starts for the Blue Jays?
Toronto starts Yusei Kikuchi tonight.
Kikuchi's ERA does not do justice to his current form.
He enters tonight's contest having allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last six starts.
This trend is particularly impressive because he's sustained it against tough competition.
Among other teams, he's victimized the Phillies and Dodgers.
During this stretch of play, his command has improved.
While he was already good at limiting walks, he has not allowed a home run since July 6.
His consistent precision also helps him induce soft contact and minimize hard contact.
In both of his last two starts, he yielded hard contact at an amazingly low rate of below eight percent.
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Grayson Rodriguez starts for the Orioles today.
Rodriguez's ERA creates a misleadingly negative impression of him because it conceals his improvement.
He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.
While, in the one exception, he allowed three earned runs to Toronto, he was unfortunate to do so.
In that start against Toronto, he did a superb job of minimizing hard contact and only allowed two hits and two walks.
His 2.21 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he actually performed.
Toronto's Lineup
Toronto's lineup is in a fade spot after scoring ten runs in its last game.
On seven of eight occasions, Blue Jays have failed to exceed three earned runs in the game following a double-digit scoring output.
In the one exception, they pummeled a terrible Tigers reliever.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at -123 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Who Starts for the Guardians?
Cleveland starts Noah Syndergaard tonight.
After his last start, Syndergaard has now allowed both 7+ hits and five or more earned runs in five of his last seven starts.
But the consistency with which he performs poorly is most aptly indicated by the xFIP metric.
FIP is like ERA but factors out fielding and xFIP is like FIP but uses projected instead of actual home run rate.
Syndergaard has yielded an xFIP of over 5.20 in seven straight starts.
He does an awful job minimizing hard contact.
In his last start, he didn't even induce any soft contact.
Moreover, he allows a lot of home runs -- 2.11 per nine innings on the season.
Syndergaard's Arsenal
Syndergaard throws a sinker, changeup, fastball, cutter, curveball, and slider.
While these are a lot of pitches, quantity is a poor substitute for quality.
All of his pitches but one yield a slugging rate of over .510, suggesting that he struggles to find a pitch to rely on.
He lacks quality in his pitches. For example, his fastball places in the 21st percentile in velocity and in the 23rd in spin.
Mookie Betts
My favorite Dodgers batter to invest in is Mookie Betts.
Betts enters today's game in tremendous form: he has a nine-game hitting streak.
As part of this hitting streak, he has six multi-hit games and three home runs in his last three games.
His outlook tonight is also solid due to the matchup. He is 94-for-311 with a .572 slugging rate against Syndergaard's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases at -130 with Bovada
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego & Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Starts for Miami?
Miami starts Jesus Luzardo tonight.
Luzardo's awful form makes him fade-worthy.
He's allowed a combined total of twelve earned runs in his past two starts, in both of which he failed to complete four innings.
More extensively, he has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last four starts.
Even the Tigers scored four earned runs off seven hits in 4.2 innings against him.
Padres Lineup
The Padres rank sixth with a .457 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for San Diego?
Blake Snell starts for the Padres tonight.
In addition to matching up better against the Marlins than Luzardo does against the Padres, he also enjoys significantly stronger form.
Snell has held both of his last two opponents to two earned runs.
Who Starts for Texas?
Jon Gray starts for Texas tonight.
Gray is coming off a start in which he was fortunate to allow one run.
He did a poor job of inducing soft contact and minimizing hard contact but benefited from yielding a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 5.27 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he actually performed.
Arizona's Lineup
The Diamondbacks rank sixth with a .430 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Arizona?
Zac Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks today.
Gallen enters today's game having allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last three starts.
He's thrived even on the road, although he is at his best at home where he boasts a 1.82 ERA.
Best Bet: Parlay Padres ML at -183 & Diamondbacks First-Half ML at -130 at +174 odds with Bovada
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
- Yusei Kikuchi enjoys tremendous form
- Grayson Rodriguez is strongly improved
- The Blue Jays' lineup is due to flop tonight
Who Starts for the Blue Jays?
Toronto starts Yusei Kikuchi tonight.
Kikuchi's ERA does not do justice to his current form.
He enters tonight's contest having allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last six starts.
This trend is particularly impressive because he's sustained it against tough competition.
Among other teams, he's victimized the Phillies and Dodgers.
During this stretch of play, his command has improved.
While he was already good at limiting walks, he has not allowed a home run since July 6.
His consistent precision also helps him induce soft contact and minimize hard contact.
In both of his last two starts, he yielded hard contact at an amazingly low rate of below eight percent.
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Grayson Rodriguez starts for the Orioles today.
Rodriguez's ERA creates a misleadingly negative impression of him because it conceals his improvement.
He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.
While, in the one exception, he allowed three earned runs to Toronto, he was unfortunate to do so.
In that start against Toronto, he did a superb job of minimizing hard contact and only allowed two hits and two walks.
His 2.21 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he actually performed.
Toronto's Lineup
Toronto's lineup is in a fade spot after scoring ten runs in its last game.
On seven of eight occasions, Blue Jays have failed to exceed three earned runs in the game following a double-digit scoring output.
In the one exception, they pummeled a terrible Tigers reliever.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at -123 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
- Noah Syndergaard consistently pitches awfully
- Mookie Betts is hitting amazingly well right now
- Betts matches up well against Syndergaard
Who Starts for the Guardians?
Cleveland starts Noah Syndergaard tonight.
After his last start, Syndergaard has now allowed both 7+ hits and five or more earned runs in five of his last seven starts.
But the consistency with which he performs poorly is most aptly indicated by the xFIP metric.
FIP is like ERA but factors out fielding and xFIP is like FIP but uses projected instead of actual home run rate.
Syndergaard has yielded an xFIP of over 5.20 in seven straight starts.
He does an awful job minimizing hard contact.
In his last start, he didn't even induce any soft contact.
Moreover, he allows a lot of home runs -- 2.11 per nine innings on the season.
Syndergaard's Arsenal
Syndergaard throws a sinker, changeup, fastball, cutter, curveball, and slider.
While these are a lot of pitches, quantity is a poor substitute for quality.
All of his pitches but one yield a slugging rate of over .510, suggesting that he struggles to find a pitch to rely on.
He lacks quality in his pitches. For example, his fastball places in the 21st percentile in velocity and in the 23rd in spin.
Mookie Betts
My favorite Dodgers batter to invest in is Mookie Betts.
Betts enters today's game in tremendous form: he has a nine-game hitting streak.
As part of this hitting streak, he has six multi-hit games and three home runs in his last three games.
His outlook tonight is also solid due to the matchup. He is 94-for-311 with a .572 slugging rate against Syndergaard's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases at -130 with Bovada
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego & Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
- Jesus Luzardo suffers awful form
- Arizona matches up well against Jon Gray
- Zac Gallen is automatic at home
Who Starts for Miami?
Miami starts Jesus Luzardo tonight.
Luzardo's awful form makes him fade-worthy.
He's allowed a combined total of twelve earned runs in his past two starts, in both of which he failed to complete four innings.
More extensively, he has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last four starts.
Even the Tigers scored four earned runs off seven hits in 4.2 innings against him.
Padres Lineup
The Padres rank sixth with a .457 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for San Diego?
Blake Snell starts for the Padres tonight.
In addition to matching up better against the Marlins than Luzardo does against the Padres, he also enjoys significantly stronger form.
Snell has held both of his last two opponents to two earned runs.
Who Starts for Texas?
Jon Gray starts for Texas tonight.
Gray is coming off a start in which he was fortunate to allow one run.
He did a poor job of inducing soft contact and minimizing hard contact but benefited from yielding a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 5.27 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he actually performed.
Arizona's Lineup
The Diamondbacks rank sixth with a .430 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Arizona?
Zac Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks today.
Gallen enters today's game having allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last three starts.
He's thrived even on the road, although he is at his best at home where he boasts a 1.82 ERA.
Best Bet: Parlay Padres ML at -183 & Diamondbacks First-Half ML at -130 at +174 odds with Bovada
