Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat
Handicapper Analysis
People like to spit out trends and use them as a substitute for meaningful analysis.
One trend that you should not care about is the current "under" trend between the Hornets and Heat.
It is true that the Hornets have struggled to score in their games against Miami this year.
But look at the context of their games. They were playing those games during bad losing runs where they were struggling to score against everybody and anybody.
If you look at the matchup, the Hornets should be able to do their share of scoring because they love to shoot threes and threes are what Miami's defense allows a lot of.
Miami will also continue to score a lot against Charlotte's low-ranked scoring defense.
Best Bet: Over (Odds TBA)
I also think the spread is worth playing in this game.
Because this game takes place in Miami, we have to think about whether playing on the road really matters for Charlotte.
The odds imply that it does. One big way in which playing on the road can hurt a team is with its three-point shooting.
It is generally harder for many teams to shoot better on the road than inside their own arena.
But Charlotte is not one of those teams. In fact, its three-point percentage is a solid 38 in road games while it only shoots 34.6 percent from deep at home.
Besides, the Hornets have been a solid road team in general. They're 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
Best Bet: Hornets +5.5 at -110 with FanDuel
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls
Handicapper Analysis
If you think that the Bulls being dogs at home should be tempting, then you're being misled by their successes earlier in the season.
It is easy to form a solid impression of a team and then to forget to change that impression when its performance changes.
The Bulls' performance has certainly changed. Since February 26, they've won 33 percent of their games.
In terms of their ability to cover the spread, their worsened performance has made them unreliable.
Match-up wise, they cannot figure out how to defend the Bucks. They've tried numerous strategies like a soft blitz on Giannis in Milwaukee's ball-screen game.
But their efforts have been useless as the Bucks are averaging over 120 points in their last two games against Chicago.
Their ability to score a lot against Chicago gives their defense a huge margin of error.
Fortunately, Chicago doesn't have the efficient three-point shooting stretch-five to hurt Milwaukee's drop coverage with.
Best Bet: Bucks -4 at -110 with FanDuel
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Handicapper Analysis
I like to follow this rule of thumb: to look to bet the "over" when two awful teams play each other.
This is a rule of thumb that sportsbook operators don't want bettors to know about because the tendency is to expect an ugly snooze-fest when awful teams play with each other.
But this game will be a fun one where both teams shoot and make a lot of threes.
Both teams love to shoot threes -- OK City ranks seventh in three-pointers attempted per game while Portland attempts the ninth-most threes per game.
But both teams also can't defend the perimeter, as evident in how often they allow open and wide-open threes.
Best Bet: Over (Odds TBA)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Rapters
Handicapper Analysis
Atlanta's offense is all about its ball-screen game with Trae Young.
Young is famous for pulling-up, for slithering around his screener, for lobbing it to one of his big men, and for doing so many other dangerous things off a ball-screen.
Toronto is just the opponent that he doesn't want to face, though. The Raptors allow the fewest points per game against the pick-and-roll ball-handler play type.
If you don't like the Hawk offense in a game, then it's hard to like the team.
What the Raptors are really known for on offense is their transition game, which is crucial for their ability to make up for their lack of size and which is huge for their offense in general.
One thing among many that Atlanta's defense does poorly is limit the opponent's transition game. The Hawks allow the most points per possession against field goals attempted in transition.
Best Bet: Raptors -4 at -110 with FanDuel
Handicapper Analysis
People like to spit out trends and use them as a substitute for meaningful analysis.
One trend that you should not care about is the current "under" trend between the Hornets and Heat.
It is true that the Hornets have struggled to score in their games against Miami this year.
But look at the context of their games. They were playing those games during bad losing runs where they were struggling to score against everybody and anybody.
If you look at the matchup, the Hornets should be able to do their share of scoring because they love to shoot threes and threes are what Miami's defense allows a lot of.
Miami will also continue to score a lot against Charlotte's low-ranked scoring defense.
Best Bet: Over (Odds TBA)
I also think the spread is worth playing in this game.
Because this game takes place in Miami, we have to think about whether playing on the road really matters for Charlotte.
The odds imply that it does. One big way in which playing on the road can hurt a team is with its three-point shooting.
It is generally harder for many teams to shoot better on the road than inside their own arena.
But Charlotte is not one of those teams. In fact, its three-point percentage is a solid 38 in road games while it only shoots 34.6 percent from deep at home.
Besides, the Hornets have been a solid road team in general. They're 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
Best Bet: Hornets +5.5 at -110 with FanDuel
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls
Handicapper Analysis
If you think that the Bulls being dogs at home should be tempting, then you're being misled by their successes earlier in the season.
It is easy to form a solid impression of a team and then to forget to change that impression when its performance changes.
The Bulls' performance has certainly changed. Since February 26, they've won 33 percent of their games.
In terms of their ability to cover the spread, their worsened performance has made them unreliable.
Match-up wise, they cannot figure out how to defend the Bucks. They've tried numerous strategies like a soft blitz on Giannis in Milwaukee's ball-screen game.
But their efforts have been useless as the Bucks are averaging over 120 points in their last two games against Chicago.
Their ability to score a lot against Chicago gives their defense a huge margin of error.
Fortunately, Chicago doesn't have the efficient three-point shooting stretch-five to hurt Milwaukee's drop coverage with.
Best Bet: Bucks -4 at -110 with FanDuel
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Handicapper Analysis
I like to follow this rule of thumb: to look to bet the "over" when two awful teams play each other.
This is a rule of thumb that sportsbook operators don't want bettors to know about because the tendency is to expect an ugly snooze-fest when awful teams play with each other.
But this game will be a fun one where both teams shoot and make a lot of threes.
Both teams love to shoot threes -- OK City ranks seventh in three-pointers attempted per game while Portland attempts the ninth-most threes per game.
But both teams also can't defend the perimeter, as evident in how often they allow open and wide-open threes.
Best Bet: Over (Odds TBA)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Rapters
Handicapper Analysis
Atlanta's offense is all about its ball-screen game with Trae Young.
Young is famous for pulling-up, for slithering around his screener, for lobbing it to one of his big men, and for doing so many other dangerous things off a ball-screen.
Toronto is just the opponent that he doesn't want to face, though. The Raptors allow the fewest points per game against the pick-and-roll ball-handler play type.
If you don't like the Hawk offense in a game, then it's hard to like the team.
What the Raptors are really known for on offense is their transition game, which is crucial for their ability to make up for their lack of size and which is huge for their offense in general.
One thing among many that Atlanta's defense does poorly is limit the opponent's transition game. The Hawks allow the most points per possession against field goals attempted in transition.
Best Bet: Raptors -4 at -110 with FanDuel
