Tuesday Discussion

E.T.G.

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
If anyone is around tonight to discuss some games, going to try to get some work done now looking through these games. These lines are from Thegreek.

<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=560 background=back.jpg>Tuesday, April 14, 2009</TD><TD width=20 bgColor=#000000>top</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>901</TD><TD width=160>Florida Marlins </TD><TD width=130>C Volstad -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> +120</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>902 </TD><TD width=160>Atlanta Braves </TD><TD width=130>J Vazquez -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> -1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> 9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> -140</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>903</TD><TD width=160>Cincinnati Reds </TD><TD width=130>B Arroyo -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> +115</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>904 </TD><TD width=160>Milwaukee Brewers </TD><TD width=130>M Parra -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> -1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> 9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> -135</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>8:40 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>905</TD><TD width=160>St Louis Cardinals </TD><TD width=130>C Carpenter -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> -1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> 9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> -150</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>906 </TD><TD width=160>Arizona Diamondbacks </TD><TD width=130>M Scherzer -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> +130</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>12:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>907</TD><TD width=160>Chicago White Sox </TD><TD width=130>J Danks -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> -1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+135</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> 9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> -120</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>908 </TD><TD width=160>Detroit Tigers </TD><TD width=130>R Porcello -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> +100</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>5:40 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>909</TD><TD width=160>Los Angeles Angels </TD><TD width=130>S Loux -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> -1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+150</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> 9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> -110</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>910 </TD><TD width=160>Seattle Mariners </TD><TD width=130>C Silva -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-170</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> -110</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>911</TD><TD width=160>New York Yankees </TD><TD width=130>A Burnett -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-185</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> +105</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>912 </TD><TD width=160>Tampa Bay Rays </TD><TD width=130>M Garza -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> -1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+165</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> 8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> -125</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>913</TD><TD width=160>Baltimore Orioles </TD><TD width=130>A Simon -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#666666> +125</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>914 </TD><TD width=160>Texas Rangers </TD><TD width=130>B McCarthy -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> -1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+135</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> 11</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#666666> -145</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>915</TD><TD width=160>Toronto Blue Jays </TD><TD width=130>R Romero -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-185</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> +115</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>916 </TD><TD width=160>Minnesota Twins </TD><TD width=130>G Perkins -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> -1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+165</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> 9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> -135</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>917</TD><TD width=160>Cleveland Indians </TD><TD width=130>C Pavano -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-165</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> +125</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>918 </TD><TD width=160>Kansas City Royals </TD><TD width=130>K Davies -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> -1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+145</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> 9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> -145</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>919</TD><TD width=160>Boston Red Sox </TD><TD width=130>D Matsuzaka -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> -1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+115</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> 8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> -150</TD><TD width=40> </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>920 </TD><TD width=160>Oakland Athletics </TD><TD width=130>D Eveland -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-135</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000> </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000> +130</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Right off the top, Lean to Yanks w/ Burnett if they are even money or better and lean to the under in what should be a low scoring game. Burnett is now in the spot to stop the bleeding once again. Garza started 3 times versus Yanks last yr.

7ip-5h-0er-1bb-3k
5ip-5h-4er-1bb-2k
5ip-6h-3er-3bb-2k

Garza was 7-3 w/ 2.89era in 15games at home last yr w/ .233 batting average

Burnett has long history against Rays and is 7-4 w/ 2.98era in 16 starts. Last yr Burnett faced Rays 3x last yr:

6ip-9h-5er-1bb-10k
7ip-5h-2er-3bb-6k
7ip-6h-0er-4bb-10k

So far this yr, both teams have hit LHP better than RHP, both of these guys are RHP.
 
Braves 3-0 at home, First road game for Marlins. Marlins last yr were 2 games under .500 on the road.

Volstad walked 3 or more batters in 8/15 starts and started off the yr walking 4 (2 in 1st inning) against Washington. Volstad was 4-1 w/ 1.95era on the road last yr. He faced the Braves twice going 0-1 w/ 4.5era in 12ip-12h-6er-8bb-4k.

Best way to descirbe Vazquez is pretty decent. Vetern pitcher so if he watched Johan he should know that the Marlins are a very impatient team at the plate and are free swingers, too bad he doesn't have Johan's change up. He goes out and eats innings though, he went 6 or more innings in 19 starts last yr.

Atlanta is hitting .311 against RHP early in the year.
 
No way I ever put money on Carl Pavano, everrrrrrrrrr and Indians still having lots of trouble driving in runs. Davies was sharp in his first start and for the most part pitched pretty well for KC last season. Davies had 17 of his 21 starts w/ 3er or less.

Thinking maybe hit KC-1 tomorrow in this game.
 
Alfredo Simon will be pitching on the road for the first time in his short career. He gave up 2 homers to the Yanks in his first start, not exactly a lineup or park you want to face in Texas. He was never anything special in the minors and he is someone I could see going 5ip tops and leaving the Orioles bullpen to do the rest. McCarthy could finally be healthy and have to think he has a decent edge here over Simon. Whole key for McCarthy will be to keep Roberts from getting things started. Roberts-Jones-Markakis-Huff are all hitting well right now and 3 of the 4 can run so you have to keep them off the bases. The bottom half of the Orioles order can't hold their weight.
 
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also like the A's. I don't think Dice K is 100% and I think the A's lineup can do some damage. Eveland with one career start against Red Sox - 2 IP, 9 runs. That start was at boston though, and I don't put a lot of stock into such a small sample size.
 
Tigers ? Might be interested in a divisonal home dog when the teams are essentially equal. Would figure Porcello to b emuch better at home then away at his age . Danks has just 2 medicore career starts in DET the rest he has been lucky enough to be home when facing them.

Mariners ? Another team who started well playing its home opener and LAA off an emotional weekend .

Braves ? At this stage would still rather have a healthy Javy over Volstdad . Clearly long term and stuff wise its the FLA SP but not right now IMO. Not to impressed with FLA play yet basically what I have expected ...strikeout pitcher in Javy vs a free swinging team that prefers velocity ...under looks enticing

Rangers ? I thought Simon was fairly decent vs NYY in a terrible spot for the Orioles that day . With that said still like Texas here and call me crazy but maybe 1st 5 inn under ?>?

Reds and Under ? Arroyo held up okay vs Mets and has some success at Miller park because he faces a very RH lineup . Parra didnt pitch well in the 2nd H and has always struggled on the road . So think with Cincy struggling so far vs LHs a good under play at worst ...

Twins blew one and Romeros 1st road start ? Twins ML and UNDER ?

Royals 1st to score prop ? Davies is more then a sleeper at this point I actually trust him. Awesome Sept , great ST and did it a again in the opener ....


thats all for now ..Burnett was solid in the 1st game but not spectular so lean that way but noty certain ...under ?

:cheers:










 
Probably look at Arizona +1.5 RL and Under . Cards only gave Carpenter 2 runs in his 1st start , Zona was 8-1 before today at home past 3 years vs Cards . Zona struggling with the bat only twice breaking 2 runs in 7 games which where vs McDonald and Cook who they own ...Cards have scored 4 , 9 ,4,2,5 ,11,3,2 so essentially all or nothing...also cards lost past 8 as road chalk todat guess they were chalk though but a PK em at times...

Mariners are a definte play I think because I have some faith in Silva since he lost a good deal of weight in the off season ...not to mention has held his own vs LAA ...

Carlos Silva (R) Previous Starts vs. LA Angels

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/04/08</TD><TD class=datacell>LAA</TD><TD class=datacell>4-5</TD><TD class=datacell>118/8</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>8.0</TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>5 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>111 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.9 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/12/08</TD><TD class=datacell>LAA</TD><TD class=datacell>8-3</TD><TD class=datacell>-102/9</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>8.0</TD><TD class=datacell>11</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>98 </TD><TD class=datacell>12.2 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.30</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>08/11/07</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) @ LAA</TD><TD class=datacell>3-4</TD><TD class=datacell>176/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>88 </TD><TD class=datacell>12.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.11</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/20/07</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) LAA</TD><TD class=datacell>7-5</TD><TD class=datacell>122/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>6.2</TD><TD class=datacell>10</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>97 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.38</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

And as much as I would like to play on KC think CLE might have some value when you look at how opposite these 2 guys were in their 1st start ....
 
Arizona is a thin reed. Large difference in bull pens. Cadinals hitting .355 to .252 Arizona against right handers. Arizona just lost getting a great effort from Davis on their best day of the week. Cardinals clearly intend to make the playoffs and will take all wins available before and after running into the Cubs. You have a staff ace going against what would normally be a 4th starter. The staff ace is playing on a winning team while the 4th starter is playing on a team that has scored 9 runs twice against bad pitching and in the other games has been held to 2 or less. 37 cents which I laid is a very low price in this situation. You can make word games and talk about Arizona but there are many better dogs than one that hides its head and weeps waiting for Randy to come back or Webb to appear and save them. This is what happens when a bad gm and a bad manager are in charge. Cardinals roll.
 
By the way very good chance I add Cardinals runline after umpire info. Last 11 Carpenter road wins were 10 to 1 by 2 or more runs. I repeat the Cardinals just won on Arizona's best day of the week and after shutting out an opponent. The first game was the worst spot the Cardinals could play in and they still won.
 
reNew Orleans said:
scherzer gotta be worth a look
Click to expand...


love max...but be careful. first, carp is back...and the best pitcher in this matchup. second, max's start was delayed due some health issues/concerns...so i think it's worth watching and seeing how he does first, especially if he's on a pitch count.
anyhow, the under might be tempting with a good ump. honestly dont' see much offense on this one.
 
Took Florida plus 38 cents. No real idea what will happen here but some things stand out. Atlanta caught a Phillie team deep into post Championship sickness and mostly walked on them and then they walked on Washington. Neither seems very impressive to me and I think the Atlanta manager is well past it. No reason to feel safe anytime you play a team that has been winning but Florida has 2 1 run wins against a real team which is some reason for optimism.
 
In 2 of 3 starts last season, Danks pretty much had his way with Tigers and he was very good on the road last season.

Porcello will one day be very good but he isn't there and he probably could benefit from another yr in the minors. If this was 2010, maybe I would back him here but hard not to go with the more proven pitcher

Been going back and forth on this game.
 
We had yesterdays game on tv here... that chisox line-ups bats are smoking(except the kid leading off).Danks pitched once in Comerica park last season,giving up 4er in 6ip,with 2 long balls... the over looks too obvious and when it looks too obvious we know what usually happens.
 
Cant hold off it.. this could get very messy for young porcello... think were in for a good dose of detroit mid relief,seay and robertson... have to think the tigers will try and rally behind such a young kid and give much needed rs.parlayed whisox and the over.. looks too obvious to me.
Good thread guys and GL

just an added bonus,Seay has come in relief twice last season against the chisox,he couldnt manage a full inning,being knocked about both times.
Too good to be true?,so it`ll finish 2-1 :p
 
Florida @ Atlanta :

- Volstad 105 pitches in 5 innings last time could be a red flag imo because its early on and interesting to see what pitchers have the next time out after laboring through a start.

- Volstad vs Wash besides the fact Wash has stunk to begin the season they have at least hit the ball and pretty well . So the big thing I take is he faced just 3 LHBs in Guzman , Dunn and Willie Harris and Milledge was rotated out with Willingham in , Belliard hurt so Harris started and Flores rested with Nieves in. The last 2 are pretty big dropoffs imo..unsure why Nick Johnson didnt play here but not suprised to see Dunn have 3 walks with Willingham and kearns behind two underacheivers who K a ton and are RH. Basically feel like it was a soft lineup he faced especially when you see how many quality LHs ATL runs out . Think McCann , Kotchman , Johnson , Chipper , possibly Garrett Anderson and the youngster Schafer ..

- So ATL much tougher matchup imo. In 15 career starts he has typically gone about 6 innings with only 2 starts lasting longer then 6 where he went into the 8th and 9th innings. So exect Volstad to last bewteen 5 and 6 innings based on track record . His away record I think is a matter of circumstance then indication of anything . Take his 1sr start @ LAD : Kent now retired hit 4th and went o-fer leaving him at .254 , Andrum Jones now exiled to Texas hit 5th and was .172 , Nomar played ss and went 0-fer and was at .231 and DeWitt played 3rd base and also went 0-fer ending at .260. The whole team was slumping and LAD played much better with Furcal leading off . So Furcal was out ,Manny and Blake had not arrived , and last game before the AS break as well . His other starts all seemed to come when teams that were good had some guys out and or struggling - @ Wrigley ,@ Philly and @ Shea ...all nice starts but kinda looks like ayoung romising talent caught them at the right time ...

- 1st time he faced ATL they had a decent lineup with Tex still at 1st , Kotsay in the OF , though had Lillibridge who couldnt hit a lick hitting 8th with Francouer struggling through a miserable year at the 6 spot the bottom was pretty weak with 2 ripe RHBs ...the LHB were 7/24 with 2 bbs - Blanco , Johnson , Chipper , Tex, McCann and Kotsay granted Kotsay and Tex no gone were 4-8 . The 2nd go around Kotsay was replaced by Josh Anderson a downgrade offensively , Tex by Martin Prado ..you get the point , Escobar returned , Chipper was out for infante , ..LH were just 1-8 with 2 bbs.....

- For Florida looked at the 3 RHB they faced - Cabrera , Maine and Livan . They won by 2 runs ,1 run in the b9th and lost to Livan .

- Livan 6.2 inn 6 h 2r 3bb 4k 0 Hr
- Maine 5 Inn 2h 2r 1bb 5K 2 hr
- Cabrera 6 inn 7h 5r 2bb 4K

- essentially a big b5th for 4 runs vs Cabrera and 2 runs vs Livan in the b7th one of which was inherited though ...

- Javy faced Philly in a tough spot @ philly looking to avoid the sweep but held up pretty well imo but the odd 10 run inning in the 7th made him a loser although he was out of the game..Cantu also questionable still..anyway thinking he gets a win for the game he was robbed in last week..Florida K's a ton and facing a strikeout pitcher is caution imo for them...@ Philly Javy served on a double and Hr in the 2nd inn , then a triple and error scored a run when the throw was errant on a play at home plate ...all in all the big LH bats had some hits vs him but he did fairly well IMO..only 1 hit was allowed to a RHB..now FLA has Bonifacio (switch), Baker and Hermedia from the LH side assuming Gload does not play or Amazega ...not nearly what Philly sends out and he struggled on the road last season but had some good home splits ..

-FLA 121abs/34 hits (not including 0/3 2ksfrom pitchers) and 26Ks with 10 bbs vs RHP which was at home 4hr 21 rbi...

- Past history : shows FLA just 3-6 @ ATL last season and 15-36 L51 trips..


Braves -150 to -160.

Its pricey somewhat but whats more impressive scrapping out 2 close wins vs the Mets who havent looked good losing the opener to SD and while winning 2 of 3 at Cincy thank Johan for a 2-1 win OR a team who went to Philly opening weekend won 2 of 3 and would have swept minus an 8run b7th ...which they allowed 1 run , no runs , 3runs through 6 innings before the pen blew it in game 3.....also while Volstad split his home starts vs ATL last year he faced a weak lineu the 2nd time and opposed Jorge Campillo twice ...bullpen I see an edge with ATL if they are trailing when Volstad exits or if he exits early. Like the Calero ,Nunez and Lidstrom unit but little else for FLA ...also cant look past a team who has just 15 wins in 51 attempts in ATL either . :cheers:lean UNDER as well






 
Played UNDER 94 runs but thanks to Det @ Chi that was canceled . Anyway clearly expect a lot fewer runs today ...had the Over runs yesterday and Under on Sunday hoping to continue that streak ..
 
Could be right. History at site is certainly a negative and Florida pen sucks due to terrible decisions. But that pen has had two days to rest. The team is vastly better defensively then in the past and I would say the 2 wins against the Mets are much more impressive than the games at Phillie. Phillie currently operating with a 6.68 team era along with Washington operating with a 7.71 team era are the teams Atlanta has faced and laying these odds with a newbie against a winning team is certainly very suspect.
 
tuck321 said:
Could be right. History at site is certainly a negative and Florida pen sucks due to terrible decisions. But that pen has had two days to rest. The team is vastly better defensively then in the past and I would say the 2 wins against the Mets are much more impressive than the games at Phillie. Phillie currently operating with a 6.68 team era along with Washington operating with a 7.71 team era are the teams Atlanta has faced and laying these odds with a newbie against a winning team is certainly very suspect.
Click to expand...

Guess the main difference on this is how we view the Phillies series and Mets series . Thought the Mets handed them the 1st game when after twice tieing it had guys like O'Day and Parnell on the hill . In the next game which they again won by 1 run it took a 2 out dropped fly ball by Murphy for FLA to plate their only 2 runs ..Johan probably pitched better then Josh Johnson did - 1st hit came after the dropped flyball , 2nd hit was a double Hermedia and last hit he allowed was a bunt single ...Mets had Johnson on the ropes the last 3 innings but couldnt do it ...Philly could have been flat but the 1st 24 innings of that series weer dominanted by ATL imo on the road ...

Good Luck Tuck...fwiw it you got me off Zona ...:cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
Played UNDER 94 runs but thanks to Det @ Chi that was canceled . Anyway clearly expect a lot fewer runs today ...had the Over runs yesterday and Under on Sunday hoping to continue that streak ..
Click to expand...

you're the first person i've noticed who bets the grand salami. i've been tracking it since the season started, and think it might be a good way to turn a profit by "chasing"... curious - do you bet it by feel usually, or by the stats for starting pitchers that day?

anyways, rainouts and postponements will cancel any salami. interesting that the only early day game was canceled, and they did not put up another salami...
 
tbone14 said:
you're the first person i've noticed who bets the grand salami. i've been tracking it since the season started, and think it might be a good way to turn a profit by "chasing"... curious - do you bet it by feel usually, or by the stats for starting pitchers that day?

anyways, rainouts and postponements will cancel any salami. interesting that the only early day game was canceled, and they did not put up another salami...
Click to expand...

No specific criteria really . I can recall playing 3 so far ..basically Thursday and Sunday under because it was the last day of the series and especially with SUN some teams have HUGE historical trends . Naturally SP has alot to do with as does even available pen arms. Mostly feel though . I think Fri and Sat were pretty high scoring so probably pushed me into a comfort zone on the UNDER sunday knowing the past history of sundays . Yesterday was alot more SP then anything . Today I felt they inflated it a bit after yesterdays run fest , have some real good SP , and probably a total or two that was a tad to high ...had like 6-7 under leans ...(might just blindly play every under for equal amounts)

I never really charted it to be honest so I dont know how a chase method would work . I do know that historically Thursday and Sundays have been lower scoring . Even figured out that Monday in the NHL is very LOW scoring so played that UNDER GS goals a bunch ...

:shake:

 
Have to credit Tuck for his days of the week analysis that taught me to pay attention to that stuff . Really has helped with the grand salami plays for me..
 
you cant really read too much into one start but carpenter looked like a beast in his debut this season.

I really hope he's healthy this season because he is up there with halladay and johan as one of the best pitchers in the game.
 
As crazy as it seems played the UNDER 1st 5 inn @ Seattle . Might even go the und9.5 full game but hate the vig ..

46 degrees big reason ..

LAA score 4,4,5 against Beckett , Penny and Cahill at home the RHPs they have faced (dont include Wake because he is a knuckleballer)

other big reason is LH killed him at Minny 7/15 but only 1 hit vs RHBs allowed..Abreu the lone true LH with a bunch of swh who will play and some more who might ..figure Morales and Figgins in definetly ..

would like to play SEA home opener and JR returns ..wish they were home pups though

 
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laa @ sea : agree with nut on this one. both pitchers are ? marks, but i like the home team here. in regards to the long term, i think seattle will have a better record than LAA this year. the over got slammed from what i've seen and it might seem nice but i can't hop aboard.

nyy @ tb : like the yanks here. i think they have the pitching advantage imho and i think they are the better team. i know tampa is sick at home but i'm thinking a focused and motivated yank team off a str8 laugher embarrassment will take care of business. tough total because they are good pitchers but these offenses can explode in any inning.

fla @ atl : i REALLY like the bravos and under here. florida is definately off to a nice start. however i think they will regress and i will look to fade them. atl on the other hand is a team that we might see some soft lines early because i don't think books even know how good they are. (maybe they do, public perception dictates as well) looks like florida is at least getting decent money and i wouldn't touch -1.5 because i really think one run game here. i like the better coached, disciplined home team, rather than the complete opposite of that which is the marlins.
 
jimbo1227 said:
laa @ sea : agree with nut on this one. both pitchers are ? marks, but i like the home team here. in regards to the long term, i think seattle will have a better record than LAA this year. the over got slammed from what i've seen and it might seem nice but i can't hop aboard.

nyy @ tb : like the yanks here. i think they have the pitching advantage imho and i think they are the better team. i know tampa is sick at home but i'm thinking a focused and motivated yank team off a str8 laugher embarrassment will take care of business. tough total because they are good pitchers but these offenses can explode in any inning.

fla @ atl : i REALLY like the bravos and under here. florida is definately off to a nice start. however i think they will regress and i will look to fade them. atl on the other hand is a team that we might see some soft lines early because i don't think books even know how good they are. (maybe they do, public perception dictates as well) looks like florida is at least getting decent money and i wouldn't touch -1.5 because i really think one run game here. i like the better coached, disciplined home team, rather than the complete opposite of that which is the marlins.
Click to expand...

I may play SEA here or for the series . Find it interesting with Washburn and Roland Smith to follow that SEA is favored in the series with Weaver and Saunders after this . Although SEA is now 4-0 vs LHSP already ...:cheers:
 
cin @ mil : looks like this total has been hit pretty hard on the over and i can see why looking at the lines for each of these pitchers in the first game. however, i personally think those were bad matchups for each guy and i prefer the under here. i rode cincy yesterday and it was nail biting. i think the value is with them in this one as well but i might ride the sideline on this one, if the odds were slightly juicier...

bal @ tex : although i didn't play it just my thinking out loud about the under in yesterday's game was stupidity. i guess what i should have said and still feel about this game is that i certainly wouldnt advocate betting the over. i really like texas ML and a -1 bet would be nice because i don't have all the faith in the world in texas covering the -1.5; you know balty is gonna get some runs and with another potential rollercoaster game i don't wanna sweat the spread.

cle @ kc : pretty interesting game, should be a good one. i know its early but cleveland doesnt want to bury themselves. i think pavano will have a bounce back start after that disaster in the mouse box. i bet on davies as a fatty underdog @ my chisox and i expect him to pitch another good game. i still think injuns are the better team and i think they do just enough to win this one, pretty nice value and i might be on the under as well.

tor @ min : i think the odds tell the story here, toss a coin for the winner. two good teams going at it and i guess ill say toronto because i like them a lot more (being a sox fan, and having visited toronto a few times- enjoyed following them when i was there) They have also played better than the twins so far this year (current form is in their favor)
 
damn SN, i didnt even read your posts until i was done posting and i see that we have virtually the same thoughts. what else is new..
 
jimbo1227 said:
damn SN, i didnt even read your posts until i was done posting and i see that we have virtually the same thoughts. what else is new..
Click to expand...

Well just might be the only man in the world to do it but played Under 9.5 and Under 1st 5 inn . Wont play todays game but did play SEA for the series -130 ..:shake:
 
Weaver was terrible last year @ Seattle and Saunders in 3 career starts overall has been medicore there.

Mostly just playing the price as I would have expected LAA to be about -120/-125 for the series not SEA -125/-130...:cheers:
 
ya, i would only be playing the under to fade the public, not due to statistical/situational handicapping. hope they get this one for you because ill be on em for this game.
 
SportsNut said:
As crazy as it seems played the UNDER 1st 5 inn @ Seattle . Might even go the und9.5 full game but hate the vig ..

46 degrees big reason ..



would like to play SEA home opener and JR returns ..wish they were home pups though
Click to expand...

Think they will probably shut the roof. Rainy this morning and now there are sun breaks, but it will be around 50deg. Silva did get better as the game went on last start when he started keeping the ball down.

BOL
 
aMAIZEiNgBLUE said:
Think they will probably shut the roof. Rainy this morning and now there are sun breaks, but it will be around 50deg. Silva did get better as the game went on last start when he started keeping the ball down.

BOL
Click to expand...

thanks bro , thought they would close the roof as well but thought as long as the rain stayed away maybe for opening day or at least early portion of the game they would keep it open. Pure guess though..:shake:
 
Braves , Twins , Under Seattle 9.5 and Under Texas 40/390

probably do Braves and Twins parlay as well:cheers:
 
jimbo1227 said:
tor @ min : i think the odds tell the story here, toss a coin for the winner. two good teams going at it and i guess ill say toronto because i like them a lot more (being a sox fan, and having visited toronto a few times- enjoyed following them when i was there) They have also played better than the twins so far this year (current form is in their favor)
Click to expand...

I agree on the "coin flip" analysis, but I'll add that I don't think the Twins are very good right now. I think it starts with Mauer, as Morneau is somehow seeing pitches with no protection right now. I think Seattle is overrated and they really should have taken 3 of 4 at the Metrodome last week if Morrow doesn't implode in game 2. That being said, I think Toronto's playing above their capability as well and the Twins just don't hit LHP well. Romero was nice in his first start, but the disciplined Twins hitters could get to Romero's high WHIP...
 
Great writeup on that Braves game Nut. I'll gladly jump on it with you, even though we may be the only 2 on CTG rollin with The ATL. That series prices is a dead-on indicator of today's line my friend...

GL tonight.
 
HereWeGo said:
Great writeup on that Braves game Nut. I'll gladly jump on it with you, even though we may be the only 2 on CTG rollin with The ATL. That series prices is a dead-on indicator of today's line my friend...

GL tonight.
Click to expand...

Yeah saw that as well ...GL bro:cheers:
 
0 , 2 , 3 , 3 , 2 , 2 , 2 , 2 , 9

This is Cincy away vs LHSP last year after the break...7-1-1 Under...last series before the break was in Milw 2 vs CC and they beat Parra 6-5 but just 2 runs through 6 innings before Parra struggled in the 7th and the defense only made it worse think just 3 runs were earned....

this year just 1 and 2 vs Maholm and Johan when they started and 8 spot vs Oliver Perez but to there credit they also had 6 2out rbi that game...

played Under 9 +100 maybe 1st 5 inn as well
 
What a fucking aggravating day .

Under 1st 5 inn seattle
Under Seattle
Mariners - PASSED
1st team to score Yanks
Yanks ML
Under 8.5 Yanks -
Braves -
Under Braves 9
Under 4 TT Marlins -
Under 1st 5 Milw
Under 9 Milw
Reds - PASSED
Under 11.5 Texas -
1st team to score Cle -
Twins ML
Under 8.5 Twins - passed
Over Zona 1st 5 inn PUSHED
Over Zona 9
Over RHE 27.5 Zona
Zona +1.5 RL- PASSED
1st 5 Under Oak -
Under Oak 8.5 -
Under 94 runs - PPD thanks to Det !

10 wins , 1 Push , 4 wins I passed on , 1 win canceled thanks to rain in Det .
6 Losses - Under in Texas gets 6 runs in the 10th and Yanks score 4 times top 9th , 2 runs top 8th bust FLA TT under , essentially 1 lousy single plates 3 runs for Fla as well...8 run 1st inn is terrible at Oak but at least it wasnt a bad beat ....

so with any luck would be 18-4 today . Instead down 150 bucks...

and ATL losing busted 3 parlays only lost 80 - 90 bucks would have won 800........

This shit is every damn day for months ! Its always something I decide to pass on a game it wins and I pound something it loses ....I figure out the sucker bets and dont play most of them but choose one to pound and it loses...

really close to never reading any gambling material again . My decision making sucks forever now and I have the greatest ability to talk myself out of winners and Pound losers .....only good decision I made was not playing Texas but never had the balls to play Balt ....

I thought ATL was going to be easy but wound up with SEA under and Arizona over being the 2 easiest ...go figure the 2 most illogical bets ..

sorry thats my vent ...just tired of losing money ...while being able to hit at ridiculous clips ...

still disgusted about the b6th in ATL....
 
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