Tuesday Discussion

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 width=540 bgColor=#cccccc><TBODY><TR><TD class=dataheader width=540 colSpan=10>NBA
Tuesday, February 24th</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datasubheaderleft2 width=35>Time</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=40>Gm #</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=120>Team</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=75>Score</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>Opener</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>Hilton</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>5Dimes</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>ABC Island</TD></TR><TR class=scores-whitebg><TD class=scores-whitebg-left>02/24
4:05p</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg>701
702</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team> MEMPHIS
CLEVELAND</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>188
14½ </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD></TR><TR class=scores-greybg><TD class=scores-greybg-left>02/24
4:05p</TD><TD class=scores-greybg>703
704</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team> MINNESOTA
TORONTO</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>208
7 </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD></TR><TR class=scores-whitebg><TD class=scores-whitebg-left>02/24
4:35p</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg>705
706</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team> DETROIT
MIAMI</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>183
4 </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD></TR><TR class=scores-greybg><TD class=scores-greybg-left>02/24
5:05p</TD><TD class=scores-greybg>707
708</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team> LA LAKERS
OKLAHOMA CITY</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>9
221½ </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD></TR><TR class=scores-whitebg><TD class=scores-whitebg-left>02/24
5:05p</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg>709
710</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team> ORLANDO
CHICAGO</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>3
204½ </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD></TR><TR class=scores-greybg><TD class=scores-greybg-left>02/24
5:35p</TD><TD class=scores-greybg>711
712</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team> PORTLAND
HOUSTON</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>191½
4 </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD></TR><TR class=scores-whitebg><TD class=scores-whitebg-left>02/24
5:35p</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg>713
714</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team> DALLAS
SAN ANTONIO</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>191½
4 </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD></TR><TR class=scores-greybg><TD class=scores-greybg-left>02/24
6:05p</TD><TD class=scores-greybg>715
716</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team> CHARLOTTE
PHOENIX</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>223½
7½ </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Last edited by a moderator:
have played Toronto -7- 1 unit, Houston -4- 3 units, SA -4- 1 unit so far- considering adding. also looking at OKC
 
tuesday discussion already? i've barely figured out my monday plays!
:seeya:
 
ok. Played SA -4 for a unit so far
do worry dallas remmebers just losing in doub OT at home to these guys. SA's 1st home game in a month and should be amped for it. Ginobli and terry out. TP is a mismatch nightmare for Kidd. Just think Terry is way more important to Dallas than Ginobli is to SA and think this line is short

Charlotte +7- 1 unit
SHould be interesting to see how Phoenix new coach handles 1st loss, I doubt it'll be able to motivate this vet squad in a sandwich bw boston and LAL. Charlotte off 2 losses and usually bring their game against western playoff teams.

OKC +9- 1 unit
LAL seem content to play to the final minute of games, which OKC also loves doing. Lakers win this one by 3-5. Crowd should be crazy and OKC should be up and anxious for this game. Only to probably fall short at the end and cover. 9 points is a lot of points to give to this team at home. weird how Minnesota was 9.5 and OKC is 9.

Toronto -7 (its dropped since)- 1 unit
This interrupts a homestand for Minnesota while they get to return to it 2m. Toronto needs home Ws and this should be one they lock away. Just looking for angles to fade Minnesota these days

Houston -4- 3 units
My favorite obviously. Houston just on a roll with the rest and home games. Dont forget the brandon roy heart breaker on tnt earlier this yr. Portland at SA 2m and may lookahead
 
Lol...If you havent read SF's other post it is because he never sleeps so he was finished his monday selections last night...haha
 
Have played Houston. Something of a joke line. Portland 6-14 ats last 20 on the road now plays at Houston when the deck is not stacked in their favor just before houston has to face a serious opponent.
 
yes sir, charlotte is the type of team the sun can run out the building. smells like a double digit home win to me.

line down to 6.5
 
Man they're stingy. Only giving Dallas backers 4? Should be 5.
 
I'm a little worried about Houston, feels like they're covered a few in a row at home and are sorta due for a dud maybe? Might be going to the well one time too many.
 
Minny is the one team Tor has owned in recent years, including 1-0 so far this season. SA coming off a brutal road trip plus Dallas just seems to have their number. OKC at home plus this many points is an auto play for me. Phoenix has revenge against Charlotte, but the ex-Suns could keep this one close. Can't argue with Houston in this spot.
 
Heat-4. Off a road blowout loss to the Magic, they get a day off then Pistons with revenge? Not a fan of laying 4 points, especially with the Pistons off such a bad loss. I do, however, feel that the Heat are the right side...


I lean Blazers. Think they match up well with the Rockets, & this line looks like the books think Portland hangs. Totally disagree that the Blazers will look ahead of Houston. Worried about Oden's status, but they played the last one without him....
 
Lex, the idea that Portland will look ahead of Houston is silly. Using my data bank I went back with Houston as a 6 or less favorite and saw how they did. It showed 9 home games. They were 8-1 ats. I asked about Portland as a 6 or less dog. On the road they were 6-10 ats. Limiting it to this season they were 3-5. Almost all of both teams recent wins were fake. They just sat there and took easy situations. Looking at it based on match ups I just think any time Portland plays a team on the road where they have no rebounding edge the odds are they are in deep trouble. That being said system forcesI a small first half bet on Portland for me. They might have an edge at point guard. Still think they get carted out in the second half. I just trust what I see. Houston was 8-1 ats at home as a 6 or less favorite so i have to have some very strong reason not to bet on them. This is the team last year that had 2 5 game winning ats streaks and 1 12 game ats streak so not riding a train here can be expensive. GL
 
Greencastle said:
yes sir, charlotte is the type of team the sun can run out the building. smells like a double digit home win to me.

line down to 6.5
Click to expand...
The last 2 games the Bobcats have played horribly. Thats a good argument for betting against them. The other side of the argument is the Suns. Hill is playing hurt. not clear at all what they can get out of him. Amare is gone. The core of this team at one time was Nash, Amare, Marion, Diaw, Bell and Hill. Barbossa is playing well as is Shaq. Nash is just waiting for the season to end and praying he can leave. The Bobcats can play defense and have better players as well as a better coach. The current Suns team is a shell. almost a cartoon. I liked the Suns a lot. Things change
 
guess should clarify what I meant by lookahead. By that I meant that McMillan will have to keep in mind that they play at San Antonio 2m. Could have any effect, such as playing Fernandez over roy for an extra 3 minutes in the 2nd Q, or down 9 to start the 4th, starting his 2nd unit to see if they can keep it respectable, and if with 6 minutes left they're down 14, just letting the 2nd unit stay in. Scenarios may not come into play, but there is a % chance it does, and any edge is what we look for.

Agree with tuck, that when Portland can't outrebound you, they don't have much of a shot, and its tough to outrebound houston at houston.

matchup wise Battier/Artest can limit Roy/Outlaw. Oden is doubtful leaving only Pryzilla to try to guard Yao. Hayes/Scola/Landary all scrappy defenders at the 4 to disturb Aldridge. Don't think PG is an issue as Brooks has proved his ability as a starting PG
 
Bobcats check, Under have to think with Diaw and Bell playing shame alone would stop the sillyness check, Dallas over check. Toronto and OKC totals I will look more at. Laker under here is tempting with the Suns up next. No interest in Dallas here, BC?
 
Hard to not like the Raps at least 1st Half minimum . Figure Minny could have their heads up their ass after losing a tough game to LAL on Sunday . This game is their away game for awhile . Figures with Minny over machine line just hit 210 ...

Why fuck with CLE games ? If you dont love the Cavs then move on and I dont like laying 14 ....

Heat look unimpressive IMO and one would hope DET comes out hot . Truth is they stink but hard press for me to pass up 4.5 points with them....:eyes:Pistons I am watching you fuck heads !!

Bulls always tough HOME pup but with Rafer the Magic offense looks insane ...

LAL no defense with Bynum out of the equation so 9 pts always interesting ..

SAS 1st home game in FEB !! Tough one for me

Probably look at Portland 1st half then Houston 2nd Half ....expecting a low scoring game though ...very low scoring in the 80s ..

Suns off a blowout with LAL on deck but also playing their trading partners who happened to smoke them prebreak....expect at least a quick PHO start so maybe 1st half then Char 2nd H....

One CBB game that stands out is New Mexico 1st Half ....:cheers:



 
SportsNut said:
Hard to not like the Raps at least 1st Half minimum . Figure Minny could have their heads up their ass after losing a tough game to LAL on Sunday . This game is their away game for awhile . Figures with Minny over machine line just hit 210 ...

Why fuck with CLE games ? If you dont love the Cavs then move on and I dont like laying 14 ....

Heat look unimpressive IMO and one would hope DET comes out hot . Truth is they stink but hard press for me to pass up 4.5 points with them....:eyes:Pistons I am watching you fuck heads !!

Bulls always tough HOME pup but with Rafer the Magic offense looks insane ...

LAL no defense with Bynum out of the equation so 9 pts always interesting ..

SAS 1st home game in FEB !! Tough one for me

Probably look at Portland 1st half then Houston 2nd Half ....expecting a low scoring game though ...very low scoring in the 80s ..

Suns off a blowout with LAL on deck but also playing their trading partners who happened to smoke them prebreak....expect at least a quick PHO start so maybe 1st half then Char 2nd H....

One CBB game that stands out is New Mexico 1st Half ....:cheers:



Click to expand...

:cheers:
 
I believe Miami is the correct side. Detroit first 20 games ats was 9-11. Next 20 they were 9-11 ats. After 13 games in the current set they are 2-11 ats. If they lose Tuesday they go under 500. Thats an argument. Do not see it as a good enough one. Detroit on 1 days rest is 11-18 ats while Miami is 16-12. Detroit has beaten Miami 6 in a row. Thats a lot of revenge. It ends tomorrow and with the collective we are garbage mentality surronding Detroit now do not see it as a pretty spectacle. See a very clear bounce back by Miami while Detroit just stands there.
In the Houston game a first half bet can be justified on Portland even liking Houston for the game but in general KISS is better. Less is better. Look for strong defendable positions. Just going plus for a day is a good thing. And trying to find reasons for betting on the Suns--I think you should ask yourself. Am I really just trying to make money with this bet. Bobcats have lost 2 bad games. There is no reason to assume the Suns are the ones with a fast start tomorrow.
 
I see alot of Craptors love on Tuesday. However, I side with the Twolves catching all those points. Since Jefferson went down, they have been playing more up tempo. Games have been high scoring, and even when they are down double digits, they tend to come back. Min lost to Tor before the ASB 110-102 at home. I can definitely see another high scoring game as Tor doesn't play much defense either. Favor the side more than the total, though.

Gonna run with OKC +8.5 vs LAL. Hard to pull the trigger, but LA's lackadaisical tendencies > ability to blow out OKC. Durant and Co. hung tough in LA except for a few spurts. OKC should stay inside the number here, and have a decent chance at the outright, imo.

Orlando line looks too good to be true. ONLY 2.5 against Chicago? Am I missing something here? Probably going small to average bet, but initial reaction was to hammer it...

Didn't realize Phoenix was playing until I read this thread. Auto-fade in progress, give me the Kitties and the points.

Detroit was an auto-fade, but I think it's possible this line shows too much hate for Detroit and too much love for Miami. Everyone is seeing Detroit for what they truly are now - a bad, bad, bad team. But, no one realizes Miami is just not that good either. Detroit's parts > Miami's parts. If I was forced to play, I would take the points. But, I think both teams are shit, and will abstain.
 
I really like Miami -4 or 4.5 tomorrow against the Pistons. Detroit is playing some uninspired basketball. And I doubt that changes on the road. Last time these two teams met, the Heat shot 38%, were outrebounded by 10, and gave up 50% shooting almost to the Pistons and only lost by three. Why?
Turnovers (5 for and caused 20)
FT shooting (19-24 for MIA, 15-23 for Det)

What does that spell for me? I think Miami is able to get turnovers and gets some easy transitions baskets, I think they have a better rebounding effort with O'Neal in there and finally I believe the Pistons are ready to fold. Its tough going against a veteran team on a losing streak, but I just don't think Detroit can get this one.

San Antonio and their returns after the Rodeo Trip
08: 85-65 W over Charlotte
07: 95-80 W over Denver
06: 103-78 W over Seattle/OKC
05: 99-81 W over Houston
04: 86-77 W over Houston
03: 101-76 W over Denver

I love the Spurs tomorrow and I love the under. Their match-ups with Dallas are typically in the mid/lower 90s and I think they are ready to redeem themselves after giving up 107 in regulation last time to the Mavericks.

Finally, love the under in the Houston/Portland series. Last 10 meetings between the teams, no one has broken 100 points and only five times did a team score above 90 points in regulation. Overtime scares me a little, but I think its close but low scoring.

Avoiding Chicago/Orlando (Magic due for a let down, Bulls feisty at home), Charlotte/Phoenix (Phoenix is a shell of itself but now plays SSOL again), Memphis/Cleveland (14.5 is a ton in an NBA game) and Minnesota/Toronto (two jekeyl/hyde teams) and LA/OKC (avoid LA -6 or above at all costs)

Final Card
3TP Miami ML, SA ML, PDX/HOU U191
 
tbone14 said:
Orlando line looks too good to be true. ONLY 2.5 against Chicago? Am I missing something here? Probably going small to average bet, but initial reaction was to hammer it...
Click to expand...

Its not any statistical analysis I can find, but as a Bulls fan that line SHOCKED me. The Magic have blown the Bulls out the past two years and have done so twice this year, but this seems like a letdown game for the Magic. Blowout a good team at home, than face a team you have blown out twice (including in Chicago)...screams let down. And the Bulls are better with the trades and Brad Miller gives the Bulls someone who won't be steamrolled by Dwight. As a Bulls fan I would take the Magic if I had to, but I really think this is a stay away.
 
ended up adding a unit on SA and now I'm regretting it. This one is a dog series and I can easily see a SA 2 pt W. Think both Miami and SA win by 3 or less so weird that I played SA -4 for 2 units but didn't play Miami at all. Think Dallas and Detroit may be up at half, and if I can get Miami at -2 or better at half I'll play it.
 
SF_capper said:
ended up adding a unit on SA and now I'm regretting it. This one is a dog series and I can easily see a SA 2 pt W. Think both Miami and SA win by 3 or less so weird that I played SA -4 for 2 units but didn't play Miami at all. Think Dallas and Detroit may be up at half, and if I can get Miami at -2 or better at half I'll play it.
Click to expand...

I confused. You say expect Detroit to be up at half but would take Miami at -2 or better.
:popcorn:
 
jasocurt said:
I confused. You say expect Detroit to be up at half but would take Miami at -2 or better.
:popcorn:
Click to expand...

I mean I expect Detroit to be up at half. Say they're up 4, then we see Miami -5.5 2nd H to make the game equivalent to Miami -1.5 which I would take since it is better than -2.
 
SF_capper said:
I mean I expect Detroit to be up at half. Say they're up 4, then we see Miami -5.5 2nd H to make the game equivalent to Miami -1.5 which I would take since it is better than -2.
Click to expand...

my bad....got it.:shake:

I actually like DET to cover for the game.
 
Cavs -14

Looks like they're beggin' ya to take Memphis and the points. I'm on the Cavs for a 20 pt blowout. Last home game before they leave town for a while.
 
raptors giving 7 (GASP)!!

cavs line definitely looks inflated to me. too inflated to pass up. toughest stretch of the year coming up for them and a lazy tuesday crowd pre-occupied with fat tuesday. expect a lot of shots outside today, and no way they hit as well as they did vs detroit. maybe they sleepwalk through and still win by 20, but i don't think there is any way in hell that we see a max effort here or even close to it. getting 15.5 in the nba against a team who has virtually no chance of giving max effort--yes please

Grizz +15.5
Wolves +7
Thunder +8
Bulls +2
Cats +7

others look short and i'd lean the fav.
 
Some good counter points last night Tuck. The only thing I would disagree with is PHO starting fast . They have proven to be a 1st half team IMO . With the bad taste of getting blownout on Sunday and being embarrassed @ Charlotte coupled with playing some exmates think incentive is their . :cheers:
 
i grabbed Miami -4

...i think the Pistons have folded and they won't win for the rest of this month and then they'll lose to the Nuggets, too

...like that both teams are off blowouts, but Miami's is more recent in the minds and they're at home
 
Also for the Cle game although I said one should stay away if tempted looking at CLE 1st Half then Memphis 2nd Half . We saw how Cle played after getting a large lead vs Det so why would they change ? Memphis has 3 days off despite having to play @ Indiana tmrw while CLE has a quality trip coming up @ Houston , SA , ATL and Miami in a 4 in 5 day stretch starting the 26th Thursday ...

Line also seems somewhat short IMO as well if you like it at ..memphis was +11 basically at Philly , Utah and Portland covering 2 of 3 with a poor 2nd H at Utah the only hiccup . No history of Memphis bing ubbered smoked vs CLE either , think biggest lost around 20 in CLE and 22 anywhere vs the Cavs..

Biggest away losses Memphis 18 at Utah , 20 @ NYK (biggest of the season actually) , 19 @ Tor , 18 @ Dallas , 19 @ NOH , 17 @ Utah ..think Mem 5-2-1 ATS as DD dogs away and after that long stretch of ATS losses they have been solid lately especially as dog ....

Recent big CLE home wins by margin , 21 , 18 , 17 , 14 , 15 , 30 Charlotte , 25 (both wins followe away losses though ) , 16 , 20 , 24 , 26 , 17 ....although CE is 12-4 ATS laying DD's so far .....

Looking like I roll with this CLE 1st Half and memphis 2nd Half maybe a small play on CLE +16 or better ..
 
You might be right. Tend to stay away from Suns games these days because of emotional problems. Never had any problems before Kerr betting on or against them. Adding Toronto minus 6.5. Simple fact that situationally this is an obvious play on Toronto. Minn plays at home tomorrow against conference opponent Utah who has beaten them already 4 times this year usually by large amounts. After this game Toronto goes on a death march to the Suns, Dallas and Houston. They have lost their last 9 against the Suns. They have lost 9 of their last 10 aginst Dallas. They have actually done well against Houston but not thinking they are loaded with confidence against them now. Last 20 at home Toronto has won 8 home games and covered in the last 7. I know how good Minn's road spread record has been but they have played very hard in their last 3 games and they will have to play very hard tomorrow. I think they come up short tonight.
 
tuck321 said:
You might be right. Tend to stay away from Suns games these days because of emotional problems. Never had any problems before Kerr betting on or against them. Adding Toronto minus 6.5. Simple fact that situationally this is an obvious play on Toronto. Minn plays at home tomorrow against conference opponent Utah who has beaten them already 4 times this year usually by large amounts. After this game Toronto goes on a death march to the Suns, Dallas and Houston. They have lost their last 9 against the Suns. They have lost 9 of their last 10 aginst Dallas. They have actually done well against Houston but not thinking they are loaded with confidence against them now. Last 20 at home Toronto has won 8 home games and covered in the last 7. I know how good Minn's road spread record has been but they have played very hard in their last 3 games and they will have to play very hard tomorrow. I think they come up short tonight.
Click to expand...

Also playing Toronto. They've always been good at covering when winning and this is just a bad sandwich spot for the Wolves.
 
excuse my ignorance, but what do you guys mean by sandwich spot here? i use the term sandwich in a spot where a superior team is playing two pretty big games, and in between is a game that they should undoubtedly win --- the sandwich game. i realize what you guys mean by the interruption of the home stand, but i just don't see how they don't play hard as hell tonight after losing but competing with this team at home two weeks ago and having virtually no chance of winning a b2b game tomorrow. in fact, this is probably the best chance they have to pick up a win in the next 7 games. may not be a good spot for em, but i don't think we'll see them unfocused or lacking effort and i definitely don't think they're 4 points worse than toronto
 
bjoe - Minny has played Utah well a home the last 3 seasons (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS), and has them b2b tomorrow night after losing their first 2 contests against them this season. Off a tough contest with the Lakers, theres no reason to think the Wolves will be up more for Toronto on the road than Utah at home. You'd think they'd be up more for the "winnable" contest but that's where normal logic fails imo. They won't be taking your view that Utah is a contest that can't be won.
 
thanks for the response bc...already locked the play in so i'll live with it and maybe watch to get out at halftime (although tor seems to have a tendency of covering the 1h and then falling on their face so probably can't get out of the play at half anyway). i'll probably end up playing them tomorrow too with an inflated number, and i don't think they lose both contests ats, so it's not all that bad i guess.
 
broadwayjoe said:
excuse my ignorance, but what do you guys mean by sandwich spot here? i use the term sandwich in a spot where a superior team is playing two pretty big games, and in between is a game that they should undoubtedly win --- the sandwich game. i realize what you guys mean by the interruption of the home stand, but i just don't see how they don't play hard as hell tonight after losing but competing with this team at home two weeks ago and having virtually no chance of winning a b2b game tomorrow. in fact, this is probably the best chance they have to pick up a win in the next 7 games. may not be a good spot for em, but i don't think we'll see them unfocused or lacking effort and i definitely don't think they're 4 points worse than toronto
Click to expand...


They probably aren't 4 points worse than toronto and that should be your hint that this is a sandwich spot. Even shitty teams have to figure out where to expend their energy as they can't bring it every night. The Wolves fought their asses off against the Lakers only to lose down the stretch. This is the only game that interrupts a nice home stand and I'd be damn surprised if they bring their best effort when they have Utah at home tomorrow. I'm guessing they truly believe that they can beat Utah as they've won 2 of 3 in Minny against them with the third being a 3 point loss. If they were able to "hang" with LA surely they think they can beat Utah. One win probably doesn't mean much to these guys at this point. It's more about getting a statement win which beating Utah would be. They are used to losing at this point and it's part of who they are. I don't see them planning on going up to Toronto with a ton of intensity. The good teams and the bad teams take nights off and this just looks like the perfect spot for the Wolves to get blasted before coming home and covering against Utah. In their defense they haven't gotten blown out very much since AJ went down and look to be pretty gutsy.
 
JPicks said:
They probably aren't 4 points worse than toronto and that should be your hint that this is a sandwich spot. Even shitty teams have to figure out where to expend their energy as they can't bring it every night. The Wolves fought their asses off against the Lakers only to lose down the stretch. This is the only game that interrupts a nice home stand and I'd be damn surprised if they bring their best effort when they have Utah at home tomorrow. I'm guessing they truly believe that they can beat Utah as they've won 2 of 3 in Minny against them with the third being a 3 point loss. If they were able to "hang" with LA surely they think they can beat Utah. One win probably doesn't mean much to these guys at this point. It's more about getting a statement win which beating Utah would be. They are used to losing at this point and it's part of who they are. I don't see them planning on going up to Toronto with a ton of intensity. The good teams and the bad teams take nights off and this just looks like the perfect spot for the Wolves to get blasted before coming home and covering against Utah. In their defense they haven't gotten blown out very much since AJ went down and look to be pretty gutsy.
Click to expand...

thank you sir. well said as usual. i think part of it is that i have my anti-toronto blinders on, but they've been one of the few things that have done me well so far this season so i guess i'll roll with it with a lot of your respected opinions in mind.

:shake:
 
not that i took this into account much, but i read today that the wolves are 8-1 ATS when avenging a home loss....
 
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