Tuesday Discussion

[BlitzBandit]

Sacramento Monarchs @ Chicago Sky

My Line:

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=12 width=293 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>Sacramento

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</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>-3

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</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>Chicago

​

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>3

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​

I really like how Dupree and the Sky are playing right now. Dupree has been hot and they have won their last two against good teams (New York and Connecticut), but to me, that could be the downside coming into this game. Coming off a road win against Connecticut and then coming to play at home against a Sacramento team that had played ugly til the end against a horrible Houston team is not really a good spot for them. I'm thinking Sacramento plays all out here and Chicago has their first bad game in awhile. See how the line comes out, but I think it would probably be better to look for an under play here since I think Sacramento steps up on defense.

gotta wait for the lines now...

any thoughts??

 

[redbearde]

I think any sort of play would be extremely speculative. Chicago's 34 4thQ pts against the Sun really has thrown me for a loop. An Under might be valuable if the total is unreasonably high, but I think we'll see somewheres around 146-148, and at that number I won't be playing it.

 

[BlitzBandit]

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Tue 6/19</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>601</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Sacramento Monarchs</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-3.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-165 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 142.5 -109 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>05:00 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>602</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Chicago Sky <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+3.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+155 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 142.5 -101 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


No value again...


:down:

 

[redbearde]

damn...and of course the total isn't unreasonably high.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Sacramento's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Sacramento's last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 10 games at home

can't manage to bring myself to take that over...heh.

I think we're best just waiting for wednesday.

 

[redbearde]

interesting combination here...

Chicago is third in rebounds in the league at 35.2.
Chicago has the third worst rebounds allowed in the league at 37.0.

 

[BlitzBandit]

I was leaning pretty strongly on the Over in this one... instead of looking at the offenses of these two teams, I was looking at what they're allowing. Sacramento is allowing 66 pts per game their last 5 games and Chicago is allowing 72 per game in the same span. I think Sacramento has a great defense so if they step up tonight, I'm thinking it will be on defense. Add the fact this game is on a Tuesday Night and I just don't see too much scoring... more of a boring game with defense and slow clock chewing plays... not the fast breaking running and gunning stuff...

after noticing IC is playing against this though, I may just lay off.. or maybe play it small.

 

[redbearde]

didjya mean play the under?

cus I'm pretty sure IC is on the over....

In any event, I was thinking a slight value on over, m'self...but your analysis is the sort of thing I fear. With an over, it only takes one or two bad quarters...unless we have a Chicago Sky 34 pt 4thQ again...

 

[BlitzBandit]

didjya mean play the under?

cus I'm pretty sure IC is on the over....

yea.. meant UNDER.

:spank:

 

[BlitzBandit]

btw.. with you leaning OVER as well, I might as well back off for the day.

 

[redbearde]

well, my deduction says under, but the number they offer screams over...

so it's a no play for me. But, methinks you have more experience with this league, so you might want to not let my opinions sway you too much...

 

[kutafon]

what a crappy game in chicago
ht mento up by 1, so taking them 2nd half at 1.592 (hope i will get lucky betting against chicago tonight not like on sunday vs. uconn)

 

[c.r.e.a.m.]

I took the over 143 in the SAC-CHI game. Felt more confident about it after seeing IC's playing it also. Looking at the HT score, all my confidence is gone. I think asking these two teams to score at least 85 2H points is too much.

Oh well, on to tommorrow's games.