Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 23 Tue 2024

06:40 PM
951St. Louis CardinalsL. Lynn -R+1½
-142		+159O 8
+100
952Pittsburgh PiratesP. Skenes -R+1 Markets-1½
+122		-174U 8
-120
07:05 PM
973New York MetsJ. Quintana -L+1½
-155		+137O 8½
-115
974New York YankeesL. Gil -R+1 Markets-1½
+135		-149U 8½
-105
07:40 PM
975Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Wheeler -R-1½
+105		-155O 8
-105
976Minnesota TwinsS. Woods Richardson -R+1 Markets+1½
-125		+142U 8
-115
08:05 PM
957Milwaukee BrewersC. Rea -R+107
958Chicago CubsJ. Taillon -R+1 Markets-117
08:05 PM
965Chicago White SoxG. Crochet -L+1½
-205		+107O 8
+108
966Texas RangersJ. Gray -R+1 Markets-1½
+175		-117U 8
-128
09:40 PM
967Houston AstrosJ. Bloss -R-1½
+130		-124O 9
+105
968Oakland AthleticsO. Bido -R+1 Markets+1½
-150		+114U 9
-125
09:40 PM
969Los Angeles AngelsJ. Soriano -R+1½
-140		+160O 7
-115
970Seattle MarinersL. Gilbert -R+1 Markets-1½
+120		-175U 7
-105
10:10 PM
959San Francisco GiantsJ. Hicks -R+1½
-165		+127O 8½
-115
960Los Angeles DodgersL. Knack -R+1 Markets-1½
+145		-138U 8½
-105
 
i took sun and mon off, still trying to find a car to buy which turns out is a serious pain in the ass these days to find something fairly cheap and decent!! lol. think i got one to buy lined up in morning but then theresa has several dr appointments which i think gonna be long so good chance i won't be back in the game with ya'll til wed. i can probably make it over to play the later games so those only ones im gonna focus on.

that price on stros is so damn tempting, i dunno jack bout either starter but does it matter? didnt surprise me they got clipped the 1st night in oakland but i wouldn't expect them to drop a 2nd straight to them.
 
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dunno how anyone talks themselves into laying -170s with seattle vs anyone? yes gilbert a stud but you can't trust a team to score runs how can you lay that kind of price? kirby and gilbert both lost to laa before the break, they were both as good as you could ask but it still didn't matter cause they got no help from the offense, in kirby start the d gave up a run while only scoring 1, in gilbert's game the pen gave up the runs after he left with zilch for support. obviously the ff under is always in play, not sure i love the b2b starts against same lineup for both pitchers but not really sure it matters here. has another struggle to score written all over it. if they muster 3 total thru 5 i'd be surprised.
 
+105 for the dodgers ff ov 2.5 vs hicks? um
yea im good with that price and the likelihood i think they can run Hicks before he gets thru 5 innings. he did have a 5 inning 2 run day his 1st time facing lad but he somehow managed not to walk anyone in that start, that isn't something likely to happen again! lot of guys all way down doyers lineup have big slug numbers vs sinkers, no reason they shouldn't be able to get his pitch count up, make him put the sinker over the plate and do some damage. the price is way right here to play it. i woulda thought we have to lay juice for this, seems to me the more Hicks being used as a starter the less effective he becoming, his last 8 starts there isn't much evidence of good. the only one i see he didn't get knocked around he managed to work around 4 walks, don't think he will get away with that here.
 
2daBank said:
+105 for the dodgers ff ov 2.5 vs hicks? um
yea im good with that price and the likelihood i think they can run Hicks before he gets thru 5 innings. he did have a 5 inning 2 run day his 1st time facing lad but he somehow managed not to walk anyone in that start, that isn't something likely to happen again! lot of guys all way down doyers lineup have big slug numbers vs sinkers, no reason they shouldn't be able to get his pitch count up, make him put the sinker over the plate and do some damage. the price is way right here to play it. i woulda thought we have to lay juice for this, seems to me the more Hicks being used as a starter the less effective he becoming, his last 8 starts there isn't much evidence of good. the only one i see he didn't get knocked around he managed to work around 4 walks, don't think he will get away with that here.
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To follow up your thoughts, you're right in that Hicks effectiveness seems to be sputtering out. Though, The Giants get Ray & Cobb back, and now things are a little crowded with Birdsong emerging and Harrison. Hicks could feel pressure and crumble more, or try and make a statement too (mental side of the game). I'm probably grasping here, but just trying to look at all unconventional angles too. He also hasn't pitched in 12 days.

7 out of his last 8 FF have gone over 2.5
1721736037358.png
 
peelpub94 said:
To follow up your thoughts, you're right in that Hicks effectiveness seems to be sputtering out. Though, The Giants get Ray & Cobb back, and now things are a little crowded with Birdsong emerging and Harrison. Hicks could feel pressure and crumble more, or try and make a statement too (mental side of the game). I'm probably grasping here, but just trying to look at all unconventional angles too. He also hasn't pitched in 12 days.

7 out of his last 8 FF have gone over 2.5
View attachment 86166
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the extra rest could possibly help him out. i assume he pitched more innings this year and maybe that partly why the decline. +105 just can't pass, if he beats me so be it.
 
TheDodgers said:
Is there any other sportsbook like Fanatics that offer a no homerun at all for each game?
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never heard of that, what kinda odds on those? i can't even think of what a good number be off top my head, seems like outta be at least 2.5-1?
 
B.A.R. said:
-155 now.

Have to be on these QUICK
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This was -150 before Nick Martinez was announced, as soon as he was, I went to Fanatics, still -150, and then it dropped to -140 as I was inputting my bet. Still -140 there.
 
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laopadak said:
Found them on FanDuel- Under each game, hits/runs. Just checked two games, Stl/Pitt +500 and Tigers/Indians +550
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gotta think cards game with that pitching matchup be on the lower end, like way more plus money with o's games (in general not today specifically) and other good hitting teams.

lynn has had 10 of his 19 starts without a hr allowed, he has had 11 starts and 2 relief appearances throughout his career at pnc park, only allowed 6 bombs total in 57 innings of work. obviously on a good day for him that still gonna leave 2-3 innings of work from the pen and which pen guys we get will have a lot to do with the game situation.

the plus money always gets my attention but it gotta be big payoff for the amount of freaking work! lot our plays are attempting to eliminate as many variables as possible, 1st innings, 1st 5 innings, team totals, props, all trying to isolate one area, dealing with this is the complete opposite as there a million variables to play out for the final outcome! Someone else gonna have to put in work and show me it worth all the extra work, if there a angle that profitable i'm down for anything but not sure i have the patients to figure out if something there. anyone have suggestions on angles for this? lol
 
2daBank said:
gotta think cards game with that pitching matchup be on the lower end, like way more plus money with o's games (in general not today specifically) and other good hitting teams.

lynn has had 10 of his 19 starts without a hr allowed, he has had 11 starts and 2 relief appearances throughout his career at pnc park, only allowed 6 bombs total in 57 innings of work. obviously on a good day for him that still gonna leave 2-3 innings of work from the pen and which pen guys we get will have a lot to do with the game situation.

the plus money always gets my attention but it gotta be big payoff for the amount of freaking work! lot our plays are attempting to eliminate as many variables as possible, 1st innings, 1st 5 innings, team totals, props, all trying to isolate one area, dealing with this is the complete opposite as there a million variables to play out for the final outcome! Someone else gonna have to put in work and show me it worth all the extra work, if there a angle that profitable i'm down for anything but not sure i have the patients to figure out if something there. anyone have suggestions on angles for this? lol
Click to expand...
Good stuff Bank. FWIW, I only posted as Dodgers was inquiring about availability. I know little about this great game and my plays are based on feel, pitching, buying runs/totals mostly. I'm not running to bet no home run bets on any game. Just looking to learn from you guys, follow scores daily, try to make educated plays and tail on the occasion.
 
TheDodgers said:
I grabbed it at Ceasars this morning
Click to expand...

appears ya gotta get them fast! found a car this morning so i should be back to getting to make plays when i want at prices i want! unfortunately one good thing happens so last night theresa started having problems, her stint freaking fell out i guess so the day of dr visits has turned into her being admitted back into hospital so spending my day with her.
 
laopadak said:
Good stuff Bank. FWIW, I only posted as Dodgers was inquiring about availability. I know little about this great game and my plays are based on feel, pitching, buying runs/totals mostly. I'm not running to bet no home run bets on any game. Just looking to learn from you guys, follow scores daily, try to make educated plays and tail on the occasion.
Click to expand...

im just spitballing off top my head brother. never heard of such a play before, so naturally curious if there a way to attack it. we always gotta be looking for new things to exploit before it becomes common knowledge. lol
 
friend of mine text me asking bout pirates, told him same as my 1st post in todays thread, "-175ish for pirates seems really pricey even w skenes". my only thoughts here would be i think it makes more sense to look at cards ff tt under 1.5, little expensive with -135 attached to it but still cheaper than laying it w pit, and at the end of day does anyone want to be holding a pit-175 ticket if the cards score 2 or more off skenes? i wouldn't.

that isn't to say im bullish on lynn, i usually have no clue how lynn starts will go, he just one these mfers i never been able to cap real well. he will shut down a good offense you would expect to hit him then he gets blown up by the freaking marlins or nats! just look at his May alone, guy gets beat up all month but pitches 6 scoreless against o's!! figure that shit out, lol.
 
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2daBank said:
appears ya gotta get them fast! found a car this morning so i should be back to getting to make plays when i want at prices i want! unfortunately one good thing happens so last night theresa started having problems, her stint freaking fell out i guess so the day of dr visits has turned into her being admitted back into hospital so spending my day with her.
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Hope goes well with your wife today. Thoughts with ya
 
I played these props at Fanatic. If one cashes I am happy. That would break me even. Played very light. This is only based on a few factors. Ballpark that allow lower homeruns, (Thanks Peel), Teams that are ranked on the lower end of homeruns and a combo of who did not hit any homeruns and teams that did and do not hit many (ex Miami). Probably will all shit the bed bit worth a shot for one. All for NO HOMERUN

Miami/Balt +500
Pitt/St Louis +500
Cubs/Brewers +750
Seattle/LAA +600
Houston/Oakland +850

If one or more hits will do more digging and try again tomorrow.
 
TheDodgers said:
I played these props at Fanatic. If one cashes I am happy. That would break me even. Played very light. This is only based on a few factors. Ballpark that allow lower homeruns, (Thanks Peel), Teams that are ranked on the lower end of homeruns and a combo of who did not hit any homeruns and teams that did and do not hit many (ex Miami). Probably will all shit the bed bit worth a shot for one. All for NO HOMERUN

Miami/Balt +500
Pitt/St Louis +500
Cubs/Brewers +750
Seattle/LAA +600
Houston/Oakland +850

If one or more hits will do more digging and try again tomorrow.
Click to expand...

no clue on these but you def picked parks/matchups i would think give ya best shot. seattle for sure and think most the west coast parks be a good place to look.
 
peelpub94 said:
SD/WSH Over 9.5 -110

Think this could reach 10 by the 6th inning.
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i really didn't look at this one cause the early start. somewhat interesting nats are favs isn't it? i don't know either pitcher well enough to have anything of value to add, just from a total square point of view it surprised me to see nats-115.
 
2daBank said:
i really didn't look at this one cause the early start. somewhat interesting nats are favs isn't it? i don't know either pitcher well enough to have anything of value to add, just from a total square point of view it surprised me to see nats-115.
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To be honest, I didn't even look at the moneyline. I guess no Tatis is a thing and Herz does have a chance of getting some whiffs and K's.

BUTTT... The Padres strike out the least as a team in the majors.
 
peelpub94 said:
To be honest, I didn't even look at the moneyline. I guess no Tatis is a thing and Herz does have a chance of getting some whiffs and K's.

BUTTT... The Padres strike out the least as a team in the majors.
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no doubt, super rare i play a k prop against pads.
 
2daBank said:
no doubt, super rare i play a k prop against pads.
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I'm big on Phils, Pirates, Yanks, Baltimore, Brewers, KC and tampa tonight along with mariners later. think we see a lot of runs tonight esp in Detroit/Clev game, Pads/Nats and of course out in colorado
 
cards ff under was def the way to attack that game but i didn't make it across river in time to play it, lol. just those 2 late ones for me with lad ff tt ov 2.5 and the ff under in seattle.
 
JD Davis batting cleanup behind Judge is another one of absolutely stupid decisions by the Yankees. What is the point?
 
peelpub94 said:
Good call.
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just made sense to totally eliminate anything besides skenes vs cards lineup and they gave us that at half the cost of backing the unpredictable lynn vs a mediocre lineup. who knows how many different ways lynn outing could have went? i certainly had no freaking clue. ultimately there wasn't a world where you could tell me cards scored 2 or more thru 5 off skenes and i'd been happy holding a pirates ticket. hope that makes sense.
 
what the freaking hell happened in seattle? 3 hits and 4 unearned runs in angels half the 5th?? that bout what it takes to lose a 1st 5 under in seattle! lol
 
Put the Mexico City team in a couple parlays tailing BC so following along on statcast. They are 63-17 and Robinson Cano is on that team lol. What a fall from grace!
 
2daBank said:
+105 for the dodgers ff ov 2.5 vs hicks? um
yea im good with that price and the likelihood i think they can run Hicks before he gets thru 5 innings. he did have a 5 inning 2 run day his 1st time facing lad but he somehow managed not to walk anyone in that start, that isn't something likely to happen again! lot of guys all way down doyers lineup have big slug numbers vs sinkers, no reason they shouldn't be able to get his pitch count up, make him put the sinker over the plate and do some damage. the price is way right here to play it. i woulda thought we have to lay juice for this, seems to me the more Hicks being used as a starter the less effective he becoming, his last 8 starts there isn't much evidence of good. the only one i see he didn't get knocked around he managed to work around 4 walks, don't think he will get away with that here.
Click to expand...
Good stuff bud
 
B.A.R. said:
Good stuff bud
Click to expand...

5 freaking walks, just knew there was no way he could get away with that against lad and not allow runs.

super annoyed didn't sweep the 2, angels only runs the whole game still came from that damn 5th inning, i doubt i even want to know how they managed 5 runs with couple singles?!)! l
 
it's really a bitch seattle game actually stayed under the 7 game total, with those 5 horse shit runs! lol. man like i started thread with, seattle and pirates laying upwards of -180 for teams who can't hit a damn piñata!!! angels been beating brakes off seattle coming in and coming out the asb! lol
 
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