Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 18 Tue 2023

12:10 PM
933Cleveland Guardians - Game #1H. Gaddis -R-1½
+130		-124O 8
-120
934Detroit Tigers - Game #1M. Boyd -L+1½
-150		+114U 8
+100
05:40 PM
901San Francisco GiantsA. Wood -L-110O 7½
-120
902Miami MarlinsE. Cabrera -R+1 Markets+100U 7½
+100
06:05 PM
913Los Angeles AngelsJ. Suarez -L+1½
-170		+117O 9
-107
914New York YankeesC. Schmidt -R+1 Markets-1½
+150		-127U 9
-113
06:05 PM
923Baltimore OriolesD. Kremer -R-1½
+115		-129O 9½
+104
924Washington NationalsJ. Gray -R+1 Markets+1½
-135		+119U 9½
-124
06:10 PM
915Minnesota TwinsS. Gray -R-1½
+140		-110O 9
-115
916Boston Red SoxC. Sale -L+1 Markets+1½
-160		+100U 9
-105
06:40 PM
917Texas RangersN. Eovaldi -R-1½
+135		-120O 8½
-110
918Kansas City RoyalsB. Keller -R+1 Markets+1½
-155		+110U 8½
-110
06:45 PM
903Arizona DiamondbacksD. Jameson -R+1½
-140		+149O 8½
+100
904St. Louis CardinalsJ. Montgomery -L+1 Markets-1½
+120		-162U 8½
-120
07:10 PM
919Toronto Blue JaysC. Bassitt -R-1½
+145		-107O 9
-115
920Houston AstrosJ. Urquidy -R+1 Markets+1½
-165		-103U 9
-105
07:40 PM
905Pittsburgh PiratesV. Velasquez -R+1½
-190		-104O 12½
-105
906Colorado RockiesJ. Urena -R+1 Markets-1½
+165		-106U 12½
-115
08:40 PM
907Atlanta BravesS. Strider -R-1½
+125		-135O 7½
-105
908San Diego PadresB. Snell -L+1 Markets+1½
-145		+125U 7½
-115
08:40 PM
927Milwaukee BrewersC. Rea -R+1½
-145		+139O 8
-110
928Seattle MarinersL. Gilbert -R+1 Markets-1½
+125		-150U 8
-110
08:40 PM
929Chicago CubsM. Stroman -R-165O 8
+100
930Oakland AthleticsK. Waldichuk -L+1 Markets+152U 8
-120
09:10 PM
909New York MetsT. Megill -R+1½
-140		+148O 8
-118
910Los Angeles DodgersC. Kershaw -L+1 Markets-1½
+120		-160U 8
-102
 
1st glance O’s feel a bit like cubs yesterday, pretty cheap to play the superior team. I have talked josiah grey up in past but he not Exactky progressing the way you would expect a young pitching prospect to do, matter a fact he showing some really bad signs. He has gotten away from throwing a 4 seamer which I thought was solid for him and is now throwing a sinker and cuter that don’t seem particular good. He has begun To throw more sliders and curves than fastballs, im not sure either those pitches special enough for him to pitch that way? It’s crazy his best start the year was at coors, I’m not sure what that means but im not confident he can work his way thru the O’s lineup a few times without getting knocked around. The issue here is Kremer has had his share of issues himself, getting knocked around by oakland last time out not a good sign. This could be high scoring but if that the case I feel pretty good with balty at fairly low odds to out slug a crappy nats lineup.
 
Kremer wasn’t awesome last year but he was serviceable to decent at times, he been straight up horse shit in all 3 starts this season. This seems like about as good a spot as any to turn things around but giving up 4 runs and getting ran from game before end the 5th against the A’s isn’t a good sign! Guess we could look at the over? I still think -130 a decent price to back O’s, much like cubs in game 1 it just makes sense to play them at a cheap price cause I fully expect them to win the series.
 
I’m so mad I had the Ff/game under desicion to make with giants yesterday and I choose the Ff team total under, they get their only 3 runs before the 5th but don’t score again so the game team total under cashed while I lost on the 1st 5, so far this season I’d say that been a bit a problem for me, I’ve gotten this wrong on more occasions than I care to admit. Maybe I should start splitting them? I don’t really want to do that but im also getting a bit tired of playing the wrong one of the 2!! The smart thing would be continue doing what I do and assuming it will even out but it is frustrating.

Don’t let Wood’s era fool ya, he hasn’t been very good to start the season, the biggest culprit been he walking way more than usual, this gonna be especially problematic for a guy like him who can’t benefit from the shift any longer, more ground balls are finding holes than previous years. That leads to another issue with him, he not inducing ground balls at the cljip he normally does with his sinker, guys are getting the ball in the air and hitting it harder than in past. So he walking double his typical average, not getting the ground ball to induce double plays, and guys hitting it harder, that not a combination that would make ya think sub 2 era! Something gotta give with him, either he corrects the bad things going on or his era gonna start to rise, he not a guy I would wanna back right now.

It doesn’t get much better when we look at fish starter for the day. I love Edward Cabrera stuff , he yet another one the reasons fish could afford to trade Pablo Lopez. This dude has stuff that could make him a front the rotation type arm but his already high walk rate has been thru the roof this season, more than 1 walk per inning thus far. He did manage to only walk 1 in his last start but that lead to him allowing 7 hits. Clearly he still struggling w location but just missed over the plate more in that outing. What I really find problematic for Cabrera is he has yet to allow a hr this year and he facing a giants team full of lefties that can go yard 1 thru 9. The only good thing for him is he has a fairly decent reverse split holding lefties to a slug over 100 points lower than righties. I still don’t like him here but the fact he been better against left handed bats does give him hope.

Given the struggles of both starters 7.5 feels awfully damn low even in a pitcher friendly park, doesn’t matter how big the park plays if both pitchers are giving out free passes these lineups, the dam gonna break on Wood era as well as Cabrera hr/fb radio. I don’t like overs in this park but I think today sets up nicely for one.
 
2daBank said:
It got cold here for last few days, think it warming up today then we get more storms and cooler temps for next week.
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I talked to mom last night just outside of Des Moines. It was 38, crazy! It's 68 here right now
 
KJ said:
I talked to mom last night just outside of Des Moines. It was 38, crazy! It's 68 here right now
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We were in the 80s few days ago, then it was 40ish and windy as shit, gradually warning back up next few days but then more storms Thursday I think. These next 2 be great for going to the game. Im sure it was miserable there on Sunday!
 
2daBank said:
We were in the 80s few days ago, then it was 40ish and windy as shit, gradually warning back up next few days but then more storms Thursday I think. These next 2 be great for going to the game. Im sure it was miserable there on Sunday!
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I do things late night because it's the best time of day but we're in Spring so it can get weird. Summer is easy, like 6 months of midnight crashing and insane phone calls. This is why we struggle at relationships lol
 
Angels/yanks screams over on the surface, 2 pitchers w crappy era’s playing in a bandbox with a strong wind blowing out. Years past I’d say be careful but so far this year I’ve seen several of these fly over like you would expect.

Suarez couldn’t get thru 5 innings vs the crappy nats lineup last time out, he has cut his walks in half to a very good 1ish per 9 but his home run rate has doubled. It way to early to say that gonna be his new norm but this ain’t the place you want to pitch when you giving up more bombs than in the past!!

Smidt hasn’t went more than 4 innings and been touched up in all his starts. He not a starter and thus far trying to be one has prevented him from getting his typical gb:fb ratio, he throws pitches w the idea of getting ground balls and he not getting them in a park yoi don’t want the ball in the air. I don’t see anything but a over here.
 
2daBank said:
Angels/yanks screams over on the surface, 2 pitchers w crappy era’s playing in a bandbox with a strong wind blowing out. Years past I’d say be careful but so far this year I’ve seen several of these fly over like you would expect.

Suarez couldn’t get thru 5 innings vs the crappy nats lineup last time out, he has cut his walks in half to a very good 1ish per 9 but his home run rate has doubled. It way to early to say that gonna be his new norm but this ain’t the place you want to pitch when you giving up more bombs than in the past!!

Smidt hasn’t went more than 4 innings and been touched up in all his starts. He not a starter and thus far trying to be one has prevented him from getting his typical gb:fb ratio, he throws pitches w the idea of getting ground balls and he not getting them in a park yoi don’t want the ball in the air. I don’t see anything but a over here.
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Really wanted to play Yanks ML

They haven’t win 3 straight games yet this year…..been waiting for them to win 2 in row
 
number2 said:
Really wanted to play Yanks ML

They haven’t win 3 straight games yet this year…..been waiting for them to win 2 in row
Click to expand...

Unlike last series I would think they have the pen edge against laa, although I’d be lying if I said I knew what halo’s had coming out the pen, I just assume it not great cause it never is. Lol. The problem w nyy for me is you paying -140 and it seems like pretty much a given yanks will need at least 4 innings from the pen, that would actually be a bonus, it more likely they need 5-6 innings from the pen on Schmidt days, last time out against clevland it worked great as the pen didn’t allow a hit over last 5 innings let alone a run! The problem is how often can you use 3-4 or more relievers and expect that? The 1st 2x they had to cover 5+ innings for Schmidt they gave up 7 total runs and lost both. I’d think halo’s lineup is comparable to the teams who put up 7s, feel like if you like Yankees you might as well play the over, not so much juice on that and it just seems unlikely to me laa doesn’t score 4 minimum which obviously means yanks need at least 5 so worst case a push if they win 5-4. I can’t see it being any lower scoring win for them tonight so over makes far more sense than yanks if I like them here.
 
number2 said:
Pretty chilly in NY…..50’s….
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That is true, wind is blowing out fairly strong tho and for most part I tend to think that park never really plays big. I hate when temps change back and forth like this, i never know if it gonna help the pitchers or not? Theoretically it probably should but you gotta worry bout them having their fingertips being cold and just not feeling right after loosening up in the warmer air last starts. I assume it will prob not even be 50s for game? 40s and windy, it wasn’t comfy outside for baseball here a few days ago when we had those temps and wind.
 
Not a comment on who wins tonight but I have a hard time playing cubs -170 after I got them -130 yesterday. I understand the starting pitching matchup probably a bit more favorable here but not sure enough to justify the line difference?

I’m a little skeptical on Stroman’s start to the year, I think he a solid pitcher but at 31 has he really taken a big leap? Thus far he striking guys out at a way higher clip, walking more, and his already elite ground ball ratio is off the freaking charts sitting at 5:1 gb:fb or something redic!! I havnt looked at any pitching charts for him but if I had to guess I’d say he throwing more pitches down below the k zone and guys been swinging? That my best guess but looking at fangraphs it doesn’t appear drastically different far as pitches being thrown at or swing at outside the zone or their contact rates, most the categories he is on the edge of what been his higher seasons but not noticeably different. It could be the few percentage points he gaining in all those areas are leading to a few more swings and misses (overall contact rate is lower than ever by 4-5%). I actually worry for him in the sense if the walks continues to be up he gonna for sure have a game where the k’s are lower and a team waits to get a ball higher up in zone to hit.,,As much we make fun the A’s I will say this about them, I charted their game against Mets pitcher Senga and they did a really good job laying off balls, he got 6k’s but they also walked plenty and did some damage when forcing him to come over the plate,, they much different pitchers but I’d go out on a limb and say if they can lay off Senga forkballs they should be able to lay off stroman stuff that below the zone.

I said before Waldichuck last start it not likely any team fielding a big league pitcher who gonna sport a era over 10! He wasn’t great but he did go 6.1 innings and hold O’s to 3 runs, that is a far cry from a 10 era and much better than he had been in his 1st 2 games. Fact is this guy rates as a mid rotation big league starter, after being traded to oak last year they brought him up and he had some good starts after a tough beginning, his xfip was low 4s and I think it reasonable to expect something like that going forward. At the moment he has a 33% hr:fb ratio! I don’t care how bad he is no big league pitcher is gonna carry that redic number long, playing at home should help suppress bombs as will him just throwing better pitches. The fear for him tonight is cubs have been smashing lefties and his splits are pretty alarming for a left handed starter. He long and has a awkward delivery so this could certainly be a exception kinda game where cubs righties can’t pick him up. Fact is cubs won’t finish the year with a team ops anywhere close to the .872 they have collectively at the moment! That makes this a bit more challenging, i think it wise to expect better things from waldichuck similar to his last start against a very good balty offense in a more friendly hitter park than tonight, however cubs do hit lefties and while there no question they will regress from the clip they bashing lefties at the moment this not the best matchup for Waldichuck.

Where does that leave us? I think it’s incredibly fair to say to play cubs you are buying stroman at about as high we will ever see him. Cubs numbers vs lefties are about as high they will ever be and they facing a lefty that is in line to get some better results. While I think cubs a bit overpriced im not sure it enough to incentivize me to play easily the worst team in baseball who been a straight fade team all year!! Eventually oakland gotta steal a win or 2 but im not super interested in betting them without more incentive than this line offers. This why I loved cubs yesterday, getting them -130 was a huge steal. This price lines up more with what I’d call fair so that means pass is probably the best option. I don’t like playing overs in Oakland but I will say A’s team total over something I could get behind, I do not buy stroman start, he a fine pitcher but I don’t see anything massively different to be causing the elite results.
 
2daBank said:
That is true, wind is blowing out fairly strong tho and for most part I tend to think that park never really plays big. I hate when temps change back and forth like this, i never know if it gonna help the pitchers or not? Theoretically it probably should but you gotta worry bout them having their fingertips being cold and just not feeling right after loosening up in the warmer air last starts. I assume it will prob not even be 50s for game? 40s and windy, it wasn’t comfy outside for baseball here a few days ago when we had those temps and wind.
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Regarding temperature…..think sohei ohtani was pitching in low temps for first time this year like in his 1st or 2nd start…..he was having command issues due to not griping ball…….

Then you have playoff baseball in chilly and cooler weather conditions……..gotta give props to pitchers that can handle the cooler weather
 
number2 said:
Regarding temperature…..think sohei ohtani was pitching in low temps for first time this year like in his 1st or 2nd start…..he was having command issues due to not griping ball…….

Then you have playoff baseball in chilly and cooler weather conditions……..gotta give props to pitchers that can handle the cooler weather
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Yea I def think it bothers some pitchers but at same time I know it isn’t real fun hitting 95 in the cold either!! I think it worse this time of year than playoffs cause by playoff time lot of guys in crappy weather cities have started getting acclimated, this time of year they all came from lovely Florida and zona weather, we had a warm week last week now temps dive back down. Think it makes it more difficult going back and forth like that. I know for me it felt way colder than 40s-50s usually feel after we had a week of 80s!
 
Lodolo ov 5.5 k’s
Jameson ov 3.5 k’s

Laa/nyy ov 9
Braves Ff -.5
Oak tt ov 2.5
Sf/Mia Ff ov 4
Balty ml
 
This Drey Jameson ov 3.5 k play is gonna be very much like fried last night, it gonna all come down to how many innings he can go. He been primarily a reliever but he started in minors and started at end of last season, he got pulled after 4 innings and around 55 pitches in his 1st start vs milw, I’m hoping they plan to gradually work him further each start, if he can go 5 innings there no question to me he cashing this bet!! If he goes 4 innings i still expect he can fan 4 with his good fastball and very good slider that misses bats at a elite level, If you havnt noticed good sliders are mostly responsible for cards pathetic home stand, it started the last day at coors they got carved up by a struggling Urena, then the pirates young guys just abused cards by snapping off one down and away slider after another!! The last 2 days the k’s been down but that cause they faced different kinds of pitcher. This kid they never seen and the electric slider should be a real problem for them. Well worth taking a shot at this number, he could tan 5-6 easy assuming he pitches 5 innings.
 
Got the Ff over In Miami,

Lodolo was 3rd day in a row I’ve played a pitcher that got blown up, dunno wtf going on w that? This dude was pitching just fine, he misses with one fastball that gets jacked, no biggie a solo hr but for some reason he gets away from the heater and starts leaning on a lollipop looking curve that he couldn’t get anywhere close to the bottom of the zone, tampa tags that thing for 3-4 straight hits. His location was awful on everything besides his fastball, he missed a few times w Heater but for most part he was keeping them up where he wants them. Couldn’t get anything down, just another disaster start.

Need Yankees to help contribute to the scoring, feel like it was a good call with over being better than yanks as halo’s had no problem getting to 4 so it gotta go over if yanks win, not sure if they gonna help w the scoring or not?

O’s up 1-0 in a game wind helping pitchers big time.
 
2daBank said:
Got the Ff over In Miami,

Lodolo was 3rd day in a row I’ve played a pitcher that got blown up, dunno wtf going on w that? This dude was pitching just fine, he misses with one fastball that gets jacked, no biggie a solo hr but for some reason he gets away from the heater and starts leaning on a lollipop looking curve that he couldn’t get anywhere close to the bottom of the zone, tampa tags that thing for 3-4 straight hits. His location was awful on everything besides his fastball, he missed a few times w Heater but for most part he was keeping them up where he wants them. Couldn’t get anything down, just another disaster start.

Need Yankees to help contribute to the scoring, feel like it was a good call with over being better than yanks as halo’s had no problem getting to 4 so it gotta go over if yanks win, not sure if they gonna help w the scoring or not?

O’s up 1-0 in a game wind helping pitchers big time.
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I think certain guys are tipping pitches while being sped up a bit.
 
peelpub94 said:
I think certain guys are tipping pitches while being sped up a bit.
Click to expand...

Maybe. I mean I think I’ve taken a few guys who drank before the game this week. Gausman walked as many hitters in 1st inning as he had all year combined! He settled in a bit and had a inning where he had bregman down 1-2 but bregman barely touched a splitter for a tap infield single. Then he threw a masterful sequence to alverez to fan him, then fanned Abreau and Tucker! You think he got it going then can’t get out the garbage at bottom Stros order, he didn’t get 1k on 6-7-8 hitters gave up 2 bombs and a double to them, when the pen comes in they strike out the 7 and 8 hitters 2x each in their last 2 at bats! It’s like gausman got loaded either night before or right before the game and could only hold his focus on the hitters he feared.
 
2daBank said:
Maybe. I mean I think I’ve taken a few guys who drank before the game this week. Gausman walked as many hitters in 1st inning as he had all year combined! He settled in a bit and had a inning where he had bregman down 1-2 but bregman barely touched a splitter for a tap infield single. Then he threw a masterful sequence to alverez to fan him, then fanned Abreau and Tucker! You think he got it going then can’t get out the garbage at bottom Stros order, he didn’t get 1k on 6-7-8 hitters gave up 2 bombs and a double to them, when the pen comes in they strike out the 7 and 8 hitters 2x each in their last 2 at bats! It’s like gausman got loaded either night before or right before the game and could only hold his focus on the hitters he feared.
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Sounds like a Lenny Dykstra replay, maybe even Kevin Elster in the clubhouse
 
2daBank said:
Maybe. I mean I think I’ve taken a few guys who drank before the game this week. Gausman walked as many hitters in 1st inning as he had all year combined! He settled in a bit and had a inning where he had bregman down 1-2 but bregman barely touched a splitter for a tap infield single. Then he threw a masterful sequence to alverez to fan him, then fanned Abreau and Tucker! You think he got it going then can’t get out the garbage at bottom Stros order, he didn’t get 1k on 6-7-8 hitters gave up 2 bombs and a double to them, when the pen comes in they strike out the 7 and 8 hitters 2x each in their last 2 at bats! It’s like gausman got loaded either night before or right before the game and could only hold his focus on the hitters he feared.
Click to expand...
When Kopech got blown up by the Giants it came out he was tipping.. and it makes sense.
 
peelpub94 said:
When Kopech got blown up by the Giants it came out he was tipping.. and it makes sense.
Click to expand...

Just depends on guy and circumstance. I wouldn’t think Lodolo was tipping he was just hanging curves, not sure he every got his curve or change below the waste, you don’t have to be tipped to smash garbage like that!

Gausman and manoah before him were just control. Manoah hit a guy and walked 3 more before he got a out! Gausman for some reason only threw good pitches to the middle the order and that was after a 7 run 1sy with 3 more walks.

Im sure you right tho, I have no doubt guys getting lazy having to hurry and have started picking up tells.
 
I really think oakland team total a solid play tho. I really wanted to play oakland and I do think their starter will have much better games coming but cubs lineup a tough matchup for him so preferred to make it about oakland vs stroman. I think they get 2 if not 3 off him and then get another off cubs pen.
 
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