Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Sep 13 Tue 2022

05:10 PM
967Los Angeles AngelsJ. Suarez -L+1½
-170		+117O 8
-110
968Cleveland GuardiansC. Morris -R-1½
+150		-127U 8
-110
05:40 PM
953Philadelphia PhilliesB. Falter -L+1½
-190		+118O 7
+100
954Miami MarlinsS. Alcantara -R-1½
+165		-128U 7
-120
05:40 PM
969Houston AstrosH. Brown -R-1½
-138		-208O 8
-115
970Detroit TigersD. Hutchison -R+1½
+118		+190U 8
-105
06:05 PM
979Baltimore OriolesD. Kremer -R-1½
+105		-147O 8½
-105
980Washington NationalsC. Abbott -R+1½
-125		+136U 8½
-115
06:10 PM
957Chicago CubsA. Sampson -R+1½
+145		+337O 7
+100
958New York MetsJ. deGrom -R-1½
-165		-380U 7
-120
06:10 PM
973New York YankeesG. Cole -R-1½
+100		-165O 8½
+100
974Boston Red SoxN. Pivetta -R+1½
-120		+152U 8½
-120
06:40 PM
975Kansas City RoyalsK. Bubic -L+1½
-140		+161O 8
-125
976Minnesota TwinsJ. Ryan -R-1½
+120		-175U 8
+105
07:05 PM
977Oakland AthleticsK. Waldichuk -L+1½
-155		+137O 8½
-105
978Texas RangersC. Ragans -L-1½
+135		-148U 8½
-115
07:10 PM
981Colorado RockiesC. Kuhl -R+1½
-130		+166O 8½
-105
982Chicago White SoxM. Kopech -R-1½
+110		-181U 8½
-115
08:40 PM
961Los Angeles DodgersC. Kershaw -L-1½
-110		-191O 8
+100
962Arizona DiamondbacksM. Kelly -R+1½
-110		+175U 8
-120
08:40 PM
983San Diego PadresY. Darvish -R+1½
-225		-102O 7½
+100
984Seattle MarinersL. Gilbert -R-1½
+195		-108U 7½
-120
08:45 PM
963Atlanta BravesK. Wright -R-1½
+100		-152O 7½
-122
964San Francisco GiantsJ. Junis -R+1½
-120		+140U 7½
+102
 
I don’t think there any reason to get cute or sneaky with balty. We could play Kremer k’s over 3.5. Do something Ff, but it Kremer vs a opener for the scrappy nats, their pen ain’t been their strength! Balty could really use these 2 games to get on track and think the price right to just back them to win this game. I expect Kremer goes 6+ and holds nats to bout 2 runs, balty should do more damage than that to Abbott or any the 3-4 relievers they see after him. Could prob lay -1.5 here to get +105.
 
Freaking Astros man, a pitcher goes down and oh looky here, they bring up another dude who looks like a freaking stud in this hunter brown kid! After dominating triple a all year all he does is come up and fire 6 scoreless on only 3 hits and a walk to go w 5 k’s in his 1st big league start!! Now he gets another cream puff offense in the tigers he will probably dominate once again with a sick fastball and a couple plus off speed pitches! We could play his k prop but probably just safer to go houston Ff -.5, -140 is pretty cheap considering.
 
Tigers pitcher Drew Hutchison is o2.5, and it looks like he got to 3 against the Astros last time, even with limited innings. Agree though that the Astros are the safest play.
 
Reds/Pirates day night DH. Pitching matchups are going to be brutal. Pirates starting an opener in game 1 and a kid from AAA in game 2. Red starters unknown.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t think there any reason to get cute or sneaky with balty. We could play Kremer k’s over 3.5. Do something Ff, but it Kremer vs a opener for the scrappy nats, their pen ain’t been their strength! Balty could really use these 2 games to get on track and think the price right to just back them to win this game. I expect Kremer goes 6+ and holds nats to bout 2 runs, balty should do more damage than that to Abbott or any the 3-4 relievers they see after him. Could prob lay -1.5 here to get +105.
Click to expand...

I’m off balty, their bats been slumping too much of late to lay this I think. I can make a case for playing Kremer but he hasn’t been as strong in the 2nd half.
 
askias said:
Tigers pitcher Drew Hutchison is o2.5, and it looks like he got to 3 against the Astros last time, even with limited innings. Agree though that the Astros are the safest play.
Click to expand...

You want to play his k’s? He gave up 4 runs in 2 innings vs Stros last time, I get it 2.5 ain’t nothing but there gotta be risk he gets lit up. I’d much rather play Kremer ov 3.5 even tho I’m on fence w him, I’m at least confident he gonna give me 5+ Innings.
 
Marsski said:
Reds/Pirates day night DH. Pitching matchups are going to be brutal. Pirates starting an opener in game 1 and a kid from AAA in game 2. Red starters unknown.
Click to expand...

I saw cessa listed somewhere for reds gm1, I dunno if that accurate tho? Pirates are swinging the bats pretty well of late, they especially tough on rhp that don’t have a great pitch to deal w lefties as they can stack 7 of them into lineup!
 
I could almost see playing the 1st inning no runs in cincy then playing over live. Both Oviedo and Cessa been starting recently, Cessa actually been going 5, don’t love he actually had pretty good splits against lefties also (good for no runs in 1st, not over so much). Hadn’t been lineups stacked w lefty hitters thi.
 
I think there a pretty good case to play the over in zona also. Low number which understandable w 2 good pitchers but kershaw hasn’t been great at chase (ops allowed right around .700) and lad has owned Kelly, he 0-7 in 10 starts vs lad.
 
Ended up playing kinda a big card:

Montgomery ov 4.5 k’s (keyed him in several 2 teamers, love it).
Brown ov 4.5 k’s
Waldichuck ov 4.5 k’s

Hou Ff -.5
Laa Ff ml
Phi Ff tt ov 1.5
Phi ml
Lad/zona ov7.5
Sd/sea Ff un3.5
Pit/reds gm1 ov 9
 
I can’t believe I’m fading my guy alcontera but I mentioned this a month ago and think it playing out, fish just pushed him too far in many of his starts, almost always pitched him every 4th day (as he is again here), and his results have started to suffer. He seeing Philly for b2b starts and they have seen him a bunch over the year. Getting plus money on Philly scoring 2 thru 5 and plus money to win this game I think too much value to pass up.
 
Bavk to the k well w some these youngsters, brown just has the stuff imo, he gonna be a kid getting a 5.5 or higher line once he becomes established so gotta get him now before that happens.

Not as high on Waldichuck, this more about who he facing as the rangers continue to flail at pretty much everything! Kid they have never seen who has fanned more than 10 per 9 throughout his minor league career so he capable. Fangraphs has him pitching 5+ innings tonight, assuming he gets us 5 innings or more feel pretty good he will fan 1 per inning.

Montgomery pretty much a no brainer, I been pleasantly surprised w his swing and miss since coming here, facing a milw team that calling free swingers would be a understatement! They struggle more with lhp and they live off the long ball for which Montgomery doesn’t give up many! He should go 6+ and fan at least 6, I coulda played any number of ways with cards Ff or Milw Ff tt under but feel pretty good here As I thought for sure this be 5.5!!
 
Last night push on laa 1st 5 left a bad taste in my mouth, getting 4 runs and having a solid lefty pitching against cle should have been a cash! Yet needed the 2nd I of laa two 2 run hr’s in the 5th just to push thanks to a ticky tack 4 run inning by cle! Laa pitching another solid lefty tonight, don’t think guardians can put together another dink and 4 run inning and they pitching a kid who throws almost entirely fastball/cutter and they have yet let to throw more than 60ish pitches. I considered Halo’s Ff tt ov1.5 but it carried a lot of juice where as them winning the 1st 5 was even money.
 
Darvish/gilbert just feels like one these low scoring pitchers duels we see a ton in Seattle. I’m not worried bout the Braves series not echoing that as I thought for most part both lineups matched up really well with the opposing pitchers In that series. Don’t think that the case here, Yu been fantastic and after a awful month my guy gilbert has regained his strong form (a case could def be made for gilbert ov 4.5 k’s, I thought bout it but carried lot more juice than this under and pads lineup has lot of guys with good plate discipline).
 
Think I talked bout the others already? So that bout it. I leaned to a few more k props and might have skipped over a few games but I had to draw a line somewhere! I rather not have 10 plays in a given night! I like those 3-4 play days where we sweep the card! Not much chance of that happening here but think it a winning card so didbt want to cut anything off!
 
I prob woulda played the over in San Fran or the giants Ff tt ov 1.5 at plus money if I didn’t have so many plays already.
 
2daBank said:
You want to play his k’s? He gave up 4 runs in 2 innings vs Stros last time, I get it 2.5 ain’t nothing but there gotta be risk he gets lit up. I’d much rather play Kremer ov 3.5 even tho I’m on fence w him, I’m at least confident he gonna give me 5+ Innings.
Click to expand...
The thing is, he still got to 3 even when he was shelled. But who knows? May gamble a little bit here.
 
Taking A's/Rangers & Col/Cws Over 8.5 -110

Leaning Ari +1.5 +105

Pads Do Well VS Seattle But Like Gilbert Here -107

Under 8 -108 Lean In sf Game.

:shake:
 
Looks Like Friends And Family In Texas 2 Night.

I Went To Their "OLD" Stadium Couple Years Ago...

I Really Liked It.

This "NEW" Stadium Has No Charm IMO.
 
Cash all 3 k props! Fucjing Montgomery had me scared he wasn’t gonna last. Then wsdichuck gives up 2 in 1st but both settle down and get it down. Brown was easy peasy!

Pushed the fucjing halo’s Ff once agAin! They driving me nuts. Missed Philly Ff tt but 3 outs from cashing game.
 
2daBank said:
Darvish/gilbert just feels like one these low scoring pitchers duels we see a ton in Seattle. I’m not worried bout the Braves series not echoing that as I thought for most part both lineups matched up really well with the opposing pitchers In that series. Don’t think that the case here, Yu been fantastic and after a awful month my guy gilbert has regained his strong form (a case could def be made for gilbert ov 4.5 k’s, I thought bout it but carried lot more juice than this under and pads lineup has lot of guys with good plate discipline).
Click to expand...
What u like more, SD or under or both same?
At casino gonna fucs wit it
Also like f3 n f5 over chase
 
Play2win said:
Going u3.5 f5 +100
F3 u2.5 is -141
Taking f3 o2.5 +100 and f5 o4.5 +106 at chase
Click to expand...

I hope they get some early at chase, I usually play full game overs unless it team totals where I’m attacking a specific pitcher vs lineup I like those ff. For game overs I just rather have the full 9 with pen rules and the stupid extra inning ghost runner.
 
I been loving these sept call up kids! Some of them have the stuff of the guys lined 5.5 or 6.5 but they only putting 3.5 or 4.5 on them!
 
I’m pretty shocked milw knocked mongemery around like that, just thrilled he was able to settle down for a couple innings to hit the k prop! Feel pretty fortunate considering how bad he got roughed up. Who woulda guessed he have his worst start vs brewers crAppy lhp hitting lineup? Baseball so goofy sometimes.
 
I fucked around and wasted too much time but was looking at many plays and maybe it’ll work out for me but hammered u7 +100 SD @ Sea
 
Play2win said:
I fucked around and wasted too much time but was looking at many plays and maybe it’ll work out for me but hammered u7 +100 SD @ Sea
Click to expand...

Only part of it that would worry me is pads pen or if it was tied 2-2 or something and extra inning bs. Yu should go deep enough pads pen not a issue. Just avoid extras!
 
I can’t stay away from casino
Started going regularly few weeks ago and keep going back as long as I’m running good. Strictly betting horses and sports
 
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