Tuesday Discussion/Thoughts

reNew Orleans

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="7" class="blk-title">MLB Baseball - Tue 6/26</td> </tr> <tr class="wht-title" bgcolor="#16177c"> <td colspan="3">Game</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Run Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Money Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Total Runs</td> <td>More </td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">901</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Pittsburgh Pirates
P. Maholm</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -138 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+156 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -125 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">902</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Florida Marlins
D. Willis</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +128 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-164 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 +115 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">903</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Cincinnati Reds
H. Bailey</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -148 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+136 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10 -110 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">904</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Philadelphia Phillies
K. Kendrick</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +138 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-144 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10 +100 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">905</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">St Louis Cardinals
T. Wellemeyer</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -106 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+193 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 +110 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">906</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New York Mets
OL. Perez</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 -104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-211 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -120 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">907</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Washington Nationals
M. Bacsik</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -146 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+141 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10 +110 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:35 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">908</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Atlanta Braves
B. Carlyle</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +136 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-149 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10 -120 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">909</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Colorado Rockies
R. Lopez</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+131 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">910</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Chicago Cubs
T. Lilly</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-139 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">911</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Houston Astros
W. Rodriguez</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -160 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+133 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -129 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">912</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Milwaukee Brewers
C. Vargas</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +150 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-141 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 +119 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">913</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Billingsley</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -192 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-109 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10 -110 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 06:40 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">914</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Arizona D-Backs
ED. Gonzalez</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +179 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+101 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10 +100 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">915</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Diego Padres
D. Wells</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -190 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+111 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8.5 +110 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:15 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">916</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Francisco Giants
B. Zito</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +180 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-119 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8.5 -120 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">917</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New York Yankees
A. Pettitte</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +113 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-149 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 +116 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">918</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Baltimore Orioles
J. Guthrie</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -123 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+141 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -126 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">919</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Texas Rangers
J. Koronka</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -106 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+195 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10.5 -114 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">920</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Detroit Tigers
N. Robertson</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 -104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-213 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10.5 +104 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">921</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Oakland Athletics
D. Haren</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +126 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-125 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8.5 -119 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">922</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Cleveland Indians
C. Lee</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -136 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+117 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8.5 +109 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">923</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Chicago White Sox
J. Garland</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -171 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+126 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 +110 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">924</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Tampa Bay Devil Rays
J. Shields</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +161 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-134 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -120 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">925</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Toronto Blue Jays
S. Marcum</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -202 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+101 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -115 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">926</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Minnesota Twins
S. Baker</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +184 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-109 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 +105 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">927</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Boston Red Sox
K. Gabbard</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -159 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+128 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 +105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">928</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Seattle Mariners
F. Hernandez</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +149 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-136 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -115 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue 6/26</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">929</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Kansas City Royals
G. Meche</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -138 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+161 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8.5 -110 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">930</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">LAA Angels
E. Santana</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +128 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-169 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8.5 +100 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Known Umpires:

STL/NYM - Barrett
WAS/ATL - Culbreth
COL/CHC - Scott
HOU/MIL - B. Welke
LAD/ARZ - Danley
SD/SF - Meriweather
TEX/DET - Meals
OAK/CLE - Nauert
CWS/TB - Miller
TOR/MIN - Winters
BOS/SEA - Cederstrom
KC/LAA - Holbrook



Please post your thoughts/trends/any useful information.
 
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nothing is catching my attention except LAD -109 and Atl/Was Under 10

Oak and Sea look too easy and after today, basically everything I liked that seemed easy (so far) have gotten me no where.
 
Leaning Oak over, Haren has really bad numbers against cleveland bats. Nauert is something like 10-3 O/U this year. 80 degrees game time temperature, 60% humidity, wind out to right at 9mph. Only thing Lee has been ok last couple games and oakland isn't scoring runs lately. Cleveland maybe a better play?

Also like St. Louise to bounce back, Perez is awful against the red birds.

Other leans Min, pit over, kc over, bos under.
 
wow this is just wierd...Looked over the card, then the numbers..These were the sides I was interested in and this is just not a typical scene for me

Reds+140
Rockies+130
Dodgers-105
Jays-105
Royals+159
Mets O9
Yanks U 8.5
 
orioles seem to have huge value at first glance with guthrie at the mound and shitty yankees road-team. Maybe Orioles ML or under 9?
 
Split yesterday. Dream Weaver got the best of 85% of the people in this world. Here are some leans...


Reds +140:

Simply put this game would be a value play. You got two rookies, one with 2 games here and 1 with 3 games.. Reds are 2-1 when Bailey pitches, Philly is 2-0 when Kendrick pitches. Bailey I think is the better pitching prospect of the two, I am sure most would agree but he is on the shitter team. I just find it hard to believe that Bailey would be a doggie to Kendrick at home if you took off .30 or .40 he would be +110/+100.

Bailey: 2-0(2-1) 4.00era, 18ip, 14h, 7k, 11bb, 1.39whip, .355obp
Kendrick: 1-0 (2-0) 4.50era, 12ip, 11h, 5k, 3bb, 1.17whip, .300obp

Now the drawbacks here is that Bailey from what I understand is a fly ball pitcher, from the looks of it he has also struggled with his control.. These are two things that can get you into trouble real fast...He is yet to give up a HR yet but that can change easily in Philly's little park. His GB:FB ratio is 1.14 overall. Kendrick has a 1.58 GB:FB ratio and a better overall whip and obp. Bullpen wise, these two are close to a wash. Philly is a little better at home than Reds on the road.

Rockies +130:

This is like a Rockies are due to win kind of though. They are 16-5 in their last 21 as an underdog.. Pitching wise if you want to give the Cubs the advantage, its very slight. Rodrigo might have found a home in the NL just as Lilly has where he is away from the AL East and can have an easier time pitching. Rockies are 7-1 when Lopez pitches and the Cubs just 6-9 when Lilly starts. Lilly has pitched very well his L3.

Lopez this yr: 4-0, 2.93era, 8g, 46ip, 50h, 8bb, 25k, 1.26whip, .310obp
Lopez L3: 2-0, 2.89era, 18.2ip, 21h, 3bb, 8k, 1.29whip, .308obp

Lilly L3: 1-0, 3.45era, 15.2ip, 12h, 2bb, 15k, 0.89whip, .250obp
Lilly Home: 3-3, 2.95era, 55ip, 44h, 9bb, 44k, .96whip, .256obp


Are the Rockies going to wake up or keep sliding? This is now a collision of streaks, Rockies L4-Cubs W4.. Cubs hitting RHP pretty good as of late and the Rockies struggle a little more with LHP than they do w/ RHP. Still even after today, the Cubs are a below average home team and their bullpen is worse than the Rockies.

off to bed, a lot of this could change in the morning.

Other leans = Cards/Mets Over 9, Dodgers -105, Yankees/Orioles U9, Jays -105, Royals +159, WSux/Drays U9 -105, Brewers -138
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I havent seen any thread mention the death of Rod Beck. I believe he was rather a big guy (I've seen little live baseball since 01-02, so my memory maybe off), which leads me to think - given what little I read said no cause of death was yet out - it could be steroid related.
 
BC...he was a heavy drinker/smoker....I know that....

I would doubt roids as he was kinda like an old time pitcher...pudgy..but he was great.....

but then again in todays baseball world..who knows...
 
Yeah, the thing about the roids is they're as much about recovery times as they are about muscle mass. So his lack of physique doesnt necessarily let him off the *suspicion hook*.

That said, I only speculate because what I read wasnt offering any cause of death, which is unusual. At minimum you'd get a natural causes token line thrown out there.
 
I like Rockies here and I alredy put 8/10 units on them.

Reasons:
-Lopez (Colorado 7-1 in his starts)
-Lilly struggles right now. He pitched well in first games, but now he is just shadow of what he was in first month. Also his one of the worst games played ever was against Coloradi last year, where he allowed 5 runs in first ininng.
-Cubs has to fall down, because, they had three game derby with WS, they won and then yesterday another thriller. I think it's enough.
-Cubs bullpen
-Colorado is good in offense @Tor L8-9,@Tor L6-11, @Tor L0-5 and yesterda 9 runs. Just one game in their 4 losses with less then 6 runs. I think this is very good.
-odds @2,31 and I think Cubs are here overvalued. I'll probably take also RL with 2/10 (not yet on pinny)
 
Peldas, my concern for the Rockies is their obvious slide in form after performing over such along period (8-0-1 their previous 9 series) before facing Toronto. In my experience/from my perspective, teams on obvious slides after decent periods of winning you want to be careful in backing, before they prove they're back to their winning ways. Meanwhile the Cubs are the opposite: after losing 10 of 12, they're 14-8 their last 22 (w/more than half those losses on the road).

You have plenty of statistical points thou for Colorado. My concern is a more ungrounded. BOL
 
some facts/stats/trends, for whatever they're worth


Cleveland
- has gone 22 straight w/out the Fav winning consecutive games (the fav won their game yesterday).

- has alternated wins & losses for 7 straight games (won yesterday)

Baltimore
- has lost 8 straight home games (the way the Yanks/O's are playing respectively points to a sweep by the road team being unlikely)

- is 10-1-1 to Over their last 12 games.

LA Angels
- are 8-1 their last 9 game 2s.

- have played 44 games w/out registering 3 straight Under results (have 2 in a row heading into game 2)

- the Fav is 16-5-1 over their last 22 games (slim Dog pickings recently, despite game 1s result vs KC).

Oakland
- have scored only 12 runs in their last 6 games.

White Sox
- have gone 28 games (17 road games) without posting consecutive wins (0-6 after their last 6 wins).

Detroit
- has lost 3 straight home games, and 7 of their last 10 home games.


Mets
- in 11 of their last 12 games, the losing team has scored 2 runs or less.

- have gone 18 games w/out registering consecutive Under results (game 1 vs STL went Under).

Arizona
- is 9-0-1 to Over thru their last 10 games

- the winner of their last 12 games has scored at least 6 runs.

Saint Louis
- 9 of their last 12 Under results they have lost (parlaying the STL ml to under, is not the way to go currently).

- over their last 43 games, the road team has won by 1-2 runs on only 2 occasions (as opposed to winning by 3+ runs on 15 occasions).

San Diego
- the Favourite is 20-8 over their last 28 games.

Philadelphia
- their last 16 games have been decided by 3+ run margins.

- has gone 17 straight games w/out registering consecutive Under results.

- the Favourite is 9-2-1 over their last 12 games (slim Dog pickings recently)
 
The A's line, should Haren be more in the -150 range. This seems low for him.

If Morneau and Castillo are out for the Twins, is this a definite play on the Blue Jays. Cirillo might be out also.
 
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Cards / Mets Over 9 -120:

I will be the first to say I don't like that kind of juice but the over is 17-5-3 in ST. Louie's last 25 road games. I am drawn into this total first because of the St. Louie pitcher..

Todd Wellemyer = 2-0(5-0), 4.66era, 29ip, 34h, 12bb, 25k, 1.59whip, .361obp
Wellemyer L3 = 1-0 (3-0), 5.27era, 13.2ip, 18h, 10k, 4bb, .348obp, 1.61whip

St. Louie supports this guy big time when he pitches. In his 5 starts they have scored 8,4,9,15,7 runs. He puts a lot of people on base but hasn't really paid the price for it yet.

Now Perez hasn't been that sharp as of late either and the Cards have a good history vs. him.

Perez L3 = 1-2, 4.58era, 17.2ip, 17h, 13bb, 13k, .366obp, 1.70whip
Perez Home = 4-3, 3.40era, 50.1ip, 34h, 22bb, 48k, 278obp, 1.11whip
Perez Career = 2-5, 4.83era, 11g, 63.1ip, 66h, 25bb, 52k
****Cards vs. Perez = .444 in 9ab, Encarnacion = .294 in 17ab, Pujols = .375 in 24ab, Rolen = .450 in 20ab, Taguchi = .294 in 17ab.

Important to note that LoDuca will play until his appeal is heard. Rolen didn't play yesterday because of a bruise on his foot and his doubtful for today.

I posted something about Yag Bennet yesterday and the Mets didn't get on base enough to take advantage. Today should be a different story. Gary Bennet is ranked dead last in catcher at throwing people out, when the Mets get on base, that will be a big problem.

Umpire = Ted Barret who is 5-6 O/U this yr and 16-20 O/U in 06'.

Weather = hot as hell.


Dodgers -103:

I noted yesterday this was an important series, the most important one the DBacks have played this yr...why? Because they are in first place and being chased for the first time all yr in a meaningful game. The Dodgers are taking this series pretty serious as well since they took Penny from his scheduled start on Sunday and pushed him back to Monday for the DBacks. Dodgers are now 5-1 in the series this yr.

Billingsley last start = 3.2ip, 2h, 2er, 3bb, 2k, 70pitches
Billingsley Career = 3-0, 1.06era, 2g, 17ip, 16h, 2er, 4bb, 7k

Included in those Career #'s are two starts last yr in Arizona that resulted in 2 wins, 14ip, 15h, 2er, 3bb, 5k.

"The Sports Xchange reports that Chad Billingsley didn't need to throw a lot of pitches to show that he was ready to return to the Dodgers' rotation. Seventy pitches did just fine. Billingsley made his first start of the season Thursday -- in place of injured Jason Schmidt -- and threw 70 pitches in 3 2/3 innings. His limit going into the game was 60 pitches, but a quick third inning convinced manager Grady Little to leave him in for three more batters. Billingsley allowed two hits, three walks and two runs, and he struck out two. He didn't get a decision, but he wasn't expecting one. "I was a little bit nervous getting back into the starting rotation, but I felt comfortable out there," Billingsley said.....Little planned to have Billingsley increase his pitch count in subsequent starts with the idea of reaching 90 pitches by his third start. Provided Billingsley feels good two days after his initial start, he could be looking at 90 pitches by his next outing. "We're happy with the progress he's made this year," Little said. "I think everyone knows that this guy is a starting pitcher. It was just a matter of when we were going to put him back in that role, whether it would be sometime during the course of this season or next spring. His time is now, and we're very confident." -sportsline.com


Edgar Gonzalez L3 = 2-0, 3.00era, 15ip, 11h, 5bb, 9k, .262obp, 1.07whip
Gonzalez home = 1-1, 6.16era, 30.2ip, 34h, 7bb, 21k, .331obp, 1.34whip
Gonzalez this yr = 0-1, 6.1ip, 9h, 5er, 2bb, 4k
Gonzalez Career = 0-3, 9.92era, 3g, 16.1ip, 28h, 18er, 5bb, 12k

Gonzalez has been going back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation all yr and now that Randy has been out, he is back to a starter. He does not have success vs. the Dodgers at all but it is important to note that the Baby Backs are 5-2 when Gonzalez does start.

Other Notes: Even with Billingsley's pitch count, its not a high concern because the bullpen was hardly used in Monday's game because of Penny. I look for Billingsley to be able to get to 85 pitches or so covering atleast 5innings. I think think the LAD know how important it is to take this 4 games set with Arizona and they are coming to play this week. I have them winning this series so I will stay betting the games in it. Arizona simply has trouble with the Dodgers, they are 1-5 this yr. Arizona is a good home team though and the Dodgers have had some trouble on the road.


Still doing Yanks/Orioles Under, Jays -105, Brewers -139, A's -119, WSux/DRays U9
 
Man on Fire said:
The A's line, should Haren be more in the -150 range. This seems low for him.

If Morneau and Castillo are out for the Twins, is this a definite play on the Blue Jays. Cirillo might be out also.
Click to expand...


I am looking at both of these games right now
 
Los Angeles Dodgers
- why are people betting the D-Backs here (its a pick em now)?
- Edgar Gonzalez lost his starting job for a reason at the start of the year
- 3 career starts and 1 relief appearance vs the LAD and he is 0-3 with a 9.92 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, .378 OPP BA. But two starts came in 2004. He had a relief appearance last year and start this year. Both were not good. You can say these aren't good enough stats to say he's terrible since it's only a combined 16.1 IP.
- Billingsley has posted good #'s in 17 IP (2 starts and 2 relief appearances) with a 1.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a decent .258 Opp BA. We got a preview of what should occur once again with the combination of Billingsley and Hendrickson then regular bullpen from there.
- Big game for both teams as winner will be leading the division after the game, I just can't see the dodgers lying down here, veteran squad vs a much younger team. If Gonzalez was the real deal, Owings would have never taken his spot in the first place, he's not ready to be starting yet.
 
yes sir, exactly my thoughts, I want to do Dodgers -1 actually so it will be like +140 but I can't unless the Dodgers are favored
 
Seattle:
6-2 vs. LHP @ home
8-4 vs. LHP on the road
14-6 vs. LHP overall

Boston:
21-8 vs RHP on the road
16-9 vs. RHP @ home
37-17 vs RHP overall

Gabbard is just filling in for Schilling. But he faced the M's last year and pitched pretty well lasting 5.1 innings give up 8 hits and 2 ERs. He had a few starts last year and kept his ERA under 4 (3.51).

Felix did have a strong performance last week but that was against the Pirates and we saw him dominate Boston earlier this year, and Boston might not let that one slip out of their mind getting 1 hit.

Cederstrom this year has called an avg of 7.9 BBs a game to only 13 SOs. 62.4% called strikes this year, higher percentage than usual but still 9-5 O/U and he is an over ump the past few years.

Wind blowing in 8 mph from CF

Boston is now 2-7 in last 9 meetings
Boston is 7-1 UNDER after a loss in their last 8 games, 42-18-1 UNDER in their last 62 road games
Seattle is 11-5-3 OVER following a win
Seattle is 7-2 in their last 9 games following a win
 
Blue Jays -104:

Had something long type up and the browser killed it. Jays are hot, winning 4 in a row but are just 14-19 on the road this yr.

Marcum L3 = 2-0, 1.83era, 19.2ip, 13h, 6bb, 15k, .263obp, 0.97whip
Marcum Away = 3-1, 3.95era, 27ip, 26h, 5bb, 23k, .287obp, 1.13whip
Marcum Career = 0-1, 1g, 5ip, 8h, 4er, 2bb, 2k

Baker L3 = 1-2, 7.63era, 15.1ip, 22h, 4bb, 13k, .380obp, 1.70whip
Baker home = 0-1, 10.38era, 13ip, 22h, 6bb, 11k, .446obp, 2.15whip
Baker this yr = ND, 5.1ip, 5h, 3er, 4bb, 2k
****Baker's home #'s are inflated due to 1 poor start vs. WSux

Important to note that Morneau will be likely be out of action until Thursday. Castillo has a swolen left hand that happened in the 5th inning of yesterdays game, could see him being out as well.

BJ's have been making a killing off of homeruns in their winning streak and Baker has given up 6hr in 32ip, think he gets hit for atleast 1 in this game. The BJ's are 6-2 when Marcum pitches and the Twins are 4-2 when Baker pitches. The series this yr is split 2-2. Marcum start vs. the Twins came last yr, Morneau was 2-3 w/ 2rbi in that game.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Blue Jays -104:

Had something long type up and the browser killed it. Jays are hot, winning 4 in a row but are just 14-19 on the road this yr.

Marcum L3 = 2-0, 1.83era, 19.2ip, 13h, 6bb, 15k, .263obp, 0.97whip
Marcum Away = 3-1, 3.95era, 27ip, 26h, 5bb, 23k, .287obp, 1.13whip
Marcum Career = 0-1, 1g, 5ip, 8h, 4er, 2bb, 2k

Baker L3 = 1-2, 7.63era, 15.1ip, 22h, 4bb, 13k, .380obp, 1.70whip
Baker home = 0-1, 10.38era, 13ip, 22h, 6bb, 11k, .446obp, 2.15whip
Baker this yr = ND, 5.1ip, 5h, 3er, 4bb, 2k
****Baker's home #'s are inflated due to 1 poor start vs. WSux

Important to note that Morneau will be likely be out of action until Thursday. Castillo has a swolen left hand that happened in the 5th inning of yesterdays game, could see him being out as well.

BJ's have been making a killing off of homeruns in their winning streak and Baker has given up 6hr in 32ip, think he gets hit for atleast 1 in this game. The BJ's are 6-2 when Marcum pitches and the Twins are 4-2 when Baker pitches. The series this yr is split 2-2. Marcum start vs. the Twins came last yr, Morneau was 2-3 w/ 2rbi in that game.
Click to expand...

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Since being shifted from the third spot in the Toronto batting order to the leadoff spot four games ago, Vernon Wells has been on fire.

The silky-smooth center fielder is 6-for-17 (.353 AVG), including Monday night's sizzling 3-for-5 performance in the Blue Jays' 8-5 win over the Twins.

During the hot streak, Wells has hit three home runs and has eight RBIs. He has managed to nudge his batting average up from .244 to .251 and now has nine home runs on the year. He's still behind his All-Star pace of 2006 (.303 AVG, 32 HR, 106 RBI), but it looks like he may finally be ready to break out. Toronto has won all four games with Wells leading off. [/FONT]
 
Atl/Was UNDER 10 -119/UNDER 9 +100

Well the reasoning behind this play is simple enough for me. Culbreth is an under ump throughout the years (last year he had like 21-11 O/U but kept consistant with % of strikes) 8-8 O/U this year, calls about 6.1 BBs a game to 13.3 SO. Also doesn't favor home team much, this is true for past years as well as he had a few years were the road team won more in the games he was umpire. Atlanta bats still struggling, facing Bacsik (LHP), who has provided consistancy even though he never gets the W, he has given them 5-6 Innings and 3 ER. Carlyle is on the mound and he's quite inconsistant but the Nats lost their leadoff man for the year, Guzman, and asked Brandon Watson to start at leadoff yesterday and he's still got very little experience and their #2 Lopez has just been getting worse as the year goes on. The bats for the Nats in general are just starting to struggle again.

Wind blowing from Right to Left @ 9 mph
 
Nice renew, I missed playing that under yesterday but this one looks solid as well. W/ Guzman on the DL, the offense really takes 2 steps backwards as he was the catalyst for the team and they fed off his energy. He had a .331 BA so that will always hurt as well.


What are everyone's thoughts on Haren -119
 
Renew -Dodger line might be making its way back up

Man On Fire - Good shit, I got Wells on my fantasy team and he's been dogshit but has turned it on in the last wk or so.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Renew -Dodger line might be making its way back up
Click to expand...

I dont know what it was earlier this morning on Pinny but it was -105 not -104 within the past hour

Matchbook was -102 at around 8:30 am for me and now +100 @ 11 and still +100. no idea I think it may hang around here for a while until closer to gametime


everythingthatsgreen said:
Nice renew, I missed playing that under yesterday but this one looks solid as well. W/ Guzman on the DL, the offense really takes 2 steps backwards as he was the catalyst for the team and they fed off his energy. He had a .331 BA so that will always hurt as well.
Click to expand...

yea he and dmitri young have been the only ones really hitting for a good avg this year. And thats why I dont undestand putting lopez in the 2 hole... if you just put in a guy like Belliard whos hit .296 on the year and not .237 then you could probably get more run production. but i'll take it for the under.


everythingthatsgreen said:
What are everyone's thoughts on Haren -119
Click to expand...

Hard not to say A's but Cliff Lee has improved the last few starts and UNDER seems like a much safer play with the Oakland bats in a lull and Cleveland having to face the best pitcher in baseball. Nauert is the ump and his 9-5 O/U record is deceiving, doesn't match up with past years.
 
good info...Reds, I am not longer interested in. Maybe at +140, but not at +125...

The Cards/Mets Over 9 -125, is crazy high juice for me on a total (renew any feelings there)...

Like the LAD game a lot
Like the Jays

A little scared to back Haren today

Looking at the Brew Crew but this line dropped 20cents last night

Not sure I trust the Pens of both the WSux and DRays in the same game and an under, that just doesn't happen often.

I think Ervin is overpriced because Meche is from the AL West, he knows these teams but the Angels are a wierd team and after losing last nights game, they will prob beat up Meche tonight.
 
hey renew.. i love the dodgers.. billingsly is lke 2-0 agasint them and gonzalez is like an era over 8 vs LAd

i also like the jays too b/c of marcum and bats are hot
 
Gabbard has been very solid in the games hes pitched in and i'll post Felix's stats post DL excluding his last start vs a bad pirates offense.

7 games (1-3): 37.2 IP, 69 H, 25 ERs, 12 BBs, 41 Ks, 2.15 WHIP, 5.97 ERA

I want to see more of what he did last week before I consider backing him. Good K #'s but almost 2 hits per inning?
 
I have to coach my baseball team tonight so I won't be around the computer until later so I have to make the picks now.

LAD $105 to Win $100: Alright, reasons are above but to sum it up, I have LAD winning this series. I like the mindframe they came to Arizona with (Moving Penny back a day just for this divisional matchup)...I like the move of Nomar to 3B for Loney who will now play 1B. It makes them more dangerous on offense and more solid on defense as Abreu and Betemit are liabilities on defense. LAD want this series and the DBacks are getting a taste of what it is like when you are in 1st place and teams are gunning for you. Its better to be the hunter than the hunted.

Blue Jays $104 to Win $100: Another PK game here and I think the LU for the Twins could be rather weak today. BJ's have a lot to be happy about in the last week as they have played great ball. They have now won 4 straight games and today I think they pick up their 5th vs. Baker. I will look for the Twins to stop the bleeding tomorrow with Boof vs. Towers. Morneau and Castillo are two big losses from the offense, both very reliable bats.

Rockies $74.07 to Win $100 : A play on value alone. Yes the Cubs have won 4 games in a row but their streak is not like the Jay's four game win streak. They squeaked out 2 games vs. the White Sux and they imo, are not a team to trust that often especially with that shit they call a bullpen... Lopez, I think is the better pitcher of the two and so with more than capable bats who have been asleep for 2 days now, a team who hasn't lost 5 games in a row this yr (Mondays loss set the season high of 4straight losses), and a little better pitcher, I have to take the plus money here. The Rockies will face Zambrano tomorrow and even though its at home where he has sucked this yr overall, he has had a rebirth and has been pitching a lot better so I would look for them to pick up this game tonight.
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